Julian R - Climate Change and Bean production

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  • *Note here what the sources of these discrepancies can be.
  • Julian R - Climate Change and Bean production

    1. 1. Climate change and bean production Julian Ramirez / Andy Jarvis (c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
    2. 2. Outline• What climate change?• Sensitivity of beans?• Modelling crop suitability impacts• Breeding priorities• Way forward: modelling crop processes• Where are the traits?
    3. 3. What climate change?+ =+
    4. 4. Emissions from agricultureExcluding land-use [Mt CO2-eq]Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
    5. 5. Impacts on agriculture• By 2100, novel climates could happen in 10-48% of the earth (Williams et al. 2007)• Climate change is predicted to decrease agricultural yields (many authors), with major impacts in the DW (many authors) Source: Lobell et al., 2008
    6. 6. Climate Predictions• Global Circulation Models… to producefuture predictionsbased uponhistoricalobservations…
    7. 7. Climate Predictions• Climate is very hard to model
    8. 8. Climate model skill• Climate model skill (CMIP3) 1961-1990 Rainfall 1961-1990 Temperature Source: Ramirez and Challinor, in p
    9. 9. Climate model skill
    10. 10. Sensitivity of beans Courtesy: S. Beebe
    11. 11. Sensitivities• Drought: less biomass (optimal 300-500 mm)• Waterlogging: Root rotting• High temperatures Konsens et al. 1991
    12. 12. Sensitivities• CO2 response 3,000 ppm 500 ppm 340 ppm Jolliffe & Ehret (1985)
    13. 13. Sensitivities• CO2 and HTS – CO2: increases biomass – HTS (temperature) – HTS (timing) – HTS (duration)• Pests and diseases – In dry areas – In humid areas Vara-Prasad et al. 2002
    14. 14. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
    15. 15. Modelling changes in crop suitability • EcoCrop: how does it work?It evaluates on monthly basis ifthere are adequate climaticconditions within a growing season …and calculates the climatic suitability of thefor temperature and precipitation… resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
    16. 16. Common Bean Current SuitabilityKiling temperature (°C) 0 Growing season (days) 90Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 13.55 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 200.0Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 17.45 Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 362.5Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 23.05 Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 449.5Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 25.63 Maximum absoluterainfall (mm) 710.0
    17. 17. Common Bean Future Suitability and Change 2030s SRES-A1B 2030s SRES-A1B
    18. 18. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
    19. 19. Lima Bean Current Suitability and Presence
    20. 20. Lima Bean Future Suitability and Change 2030s SRES-A1B 2030s SRES-A1B
    21. 21. ImpactsLima bean Common bean
    22. 22. Breeding priorities (water)Lima bean Common bean
    23. 23. Breeding priorities (temperature) Lima bean Common bean
    24. 24. Way forward: modelling crop processes• Phenology• Water balance • Nutrient balance? • Pests and diseases?• TDS + DS + HTS• CO2 fertilisation
    25. 25. Designing ideotypes• Evaluate the effects of these traits using crop models – A faster and efficient rooting system – Higher transpiration efficiency – Higher harvest index – Tolerance to water/temperature stresses
    26. 26. Where to look for those (abiotic) traits? lunatus vulgaris vulgaris dumosus
    27. 27. Where to look for those traits?CONSERVED POTENTIALEX-SITU
    28. 28. But as we know, they’re not well conserved From 85 taxa, 35 are not in any genebank, and 26 have <10 accessions...From ~260,000accessions, only 4,453 Source: Ramirez-Villegas et al. (2010)are wild
    29. 29. Summary• More conservation? Not a surprise• Heat and drought tolerance for both crops, but heat more intensely for Lima beans, whereas drought more intensely for dry beans• Mechanistic modelling needed• Perhaps some further experimentation to characterise HTS?

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