Julian R - The CCAFS analogues tool (crop-smart breeding workshop, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)

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Basic 10-min nutshell type description of the CCAFS analogues concept and tool

Basic 10-min nutshell type description of the CCAFS analogues concept and tool

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  • 1. Adaptation to progressive climate change
  • 2. The tool: Which questions can we answer?• Where can I find my site in the future?• Where can I find a place that currently looks like how my site would be in the future?• Where can I find similar areas to my site currently or in the future?
  • 3. The tool: Which questions can we answer?• Where can I find my site in the future?• Where can I find a place that currently looks like how my site would be in the future?• Where can I find similar areas to my site currently or in the future?
  • 4. How do we calculate dissimilarity?• The CCAFS measure: a modified version of the Euclidean distance• Hallegatte et al. (2007): a rule based dissimilarity measure –Annual mean in rainfall –Seasonal difference in rainfall –Seasonal difference in temperature
  • 5. How do we calculate dissimilarity?• Accounting for lag Site A (southern) Site B (northern)
  • 6. What do you need? Set up: just download and install• R >= 2.13.0 (http://www.r-project.org), and packages: – raster, sp, rgdal, maps, spgrass6, stringr, maptools, foreign, lattice, akima, grid, plotrix, rimage, XML• GRASS GIS >= 6.4 (http://grass.fbk.eu/)• Quantum GIS >= 1.6 (http://www.qgis.org/)
  • 7. http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues
  • 8. Analysing technology transfer
  • 9. Looking at networks of research sites• Climatic analogies between CCAFS benchmark sites
  • 10. Important!• Could we relate our dissimilarity index with growth parameters and yields?• Varietal targeting and selection of testing sites?• Coupling with crop models for evaluation and adaptation-strategy testing?• Cropland expansion/optimisation/migration?