Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change


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Presentation made during the last workshop on The Wallace Initiative, in Tyndall Centre, The University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.

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Julian R - Biodiversity Conservation In An Era Of Change

  1. 1. The Wallace Initiative: Biodiversity conservation in an era of change Julián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, CIAT Challenge Program on Climate Change and Food Security
  2. 2. The Wallace Initiative framework: <ul><li>Assessment of impacts of climate change on species distributions to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Determine refugia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve knowledge of risks of exceeding certain levels of change by means of determining extinction rates </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Map potential corridors for species </li></ul><ul><li>Potential refugia, carbon dist., and design of REDD mechanisms </li></ul><ul><li>Driving of protected area design in the 21 st century </li></ul><ul><li>Provide critical conclusions to aid the development of adaptation plans </li></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>Impact of climate change on species distributions Data: GBIF inputs </li></ul><ul><li>Using 62,000 terrestrial plant taxa </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Local version of the GBIF database </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Selecting species with at least 10 unique data points </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>67,039 species (15,215,524 occurrences) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Correcting georreferences </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Is the record in land or sea? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Is in the country/department/locality it says it is? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Is within the environmental niche of the species? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>62,000 selected species (12 million occurrences) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Run for all these species </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Assessing the GBIF database <ul><li>44’706.505 plant records </li></ul><ul><li>33’340.008 (74,57%) with coordinates </li></ul><ul><li>From those </li></ul><ul><ul><li>88.5% are geographically correct at two levels </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>6.8% have null or incorrect country (incl. sea plant species) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4.7% are near the coasts but not in-land </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Resulting Database Good records: 88.47% of total
  6. 6. An example from GPG2 Courtesy R. Hijmans & Jacob van Etten IRRI COLLECTION BEFORE AFTER ADDING VALUE TO THE DATASET
  7. 7. Plus… automated georreferencing Real location At <12km uncertainty
  8. 8. The data: current and future climates <ul><li>Current climates from WorldClim </li></ul><ul><ul><li>19 bioclimatic indices </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Future climates from downscaled GCM outputs (via ClimGen) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>7 GCMs at 0.5 degree resolution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2020s, 2050s, 2080s </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SRES-A1B emission scenario </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Same 19 bioclimatic indices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Now running, and awaiting results… </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. The modeling approach <ul><li>Maximum entropy as a very accurate niche modeling technique </li></ul><ul><li>10 or more points for each of the 62,000 taxa </li></ul><ul><li>21 future projections (7 GCMs x 3 timeslices… but will project over other SRES, RCP and AVOID scenarios) </li></ul><ul><li>Current: two extreme ‘adaptation’ scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Full adaptation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Null adaptation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Measures of diversity (sp. richness) and area loss </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Per country, region and globally </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Within Protected Areas </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Overall </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Current extent of conserved biodiversity within protected areas ( in situ gap analysis) </li></ul><ul><li>How to make climate-smart conservation plans? </li></ul>
  10. 10. Modeling approach <ul><li>Aplying the maximum entropy algorithm </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Macoubea guianensis Aubl.: food for rural indigenous communities in the Amazon </li></ul></ul>Data harvesting from GBIF Building the presence model Projecting on future climates NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION Potential habitat expansion NO ADAPTATION FULL ADAPTATION
  11. 11. MaxEnt models performance <ul><li>Logistic deviation measures the difference between a perfect logistic fit (Ln 1 = 0) y the model’s fit (Ln p) </li></ul>
  12. 12. Comparing with other studies on plant diversity
  13. 13. Results: in situ gap analysis <ul><li>Covering 13.8% of the total global surface (3.8% international, 10% national) </li></ul><ul><li>Holding a great amount of biodiversity </li></ul>
  14. 14. Results: protected areas per region Current extent of in situ conservation Some issues in highly diverse areas… Global biodiversity currently well conserved
  15. 15. Results: Current species richness <ul><li>Important hotspots in Latin America, Australasia and Central Africa well represented… but still missing something </li></ul>CURRENT
  16. 16. PERCENT CHANGE [null adaptation] SD among GCMs
  18. 18. Results: changes within AVOID regions <ul><li>Changes in species richness under both migration scenarios </li></ul>
  19. 19. Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC <ul><li>No matter if the best ‘adaptation’ scenario (unlimited dispersal) is chosen, negatives are expected in most regions </li></ul><ul><li>There are regions with gains in species richness, but fairly due to displacement of niches </li></ul>
  20. 20. Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC <ul><li>Expected changes within protected areas (PAs) sometimes occur at a greater extent </li></ul><ul><li>Current gaps in in situ conservation to be larger in changing climates </li></ul><ul><li>Current protected areas to be strengthened, expanded, or re-located if necessary </li></ul>NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION
  21. 21. How to make climate-smart conservation plans? <ul><li>Climate vulnerability </li></ul>CURRENT 2050s %Change
  22. 22. Assessing threat level <ul><li>Anthropogenic activities threat ecosystems… and therefore, species </li></ul>Recent Land Use Change Oil/Gas extraction Infrastructure development Grazing pressure Conversion to Agriculture Accessibility
  23. 23. Landscape fragmentation and deforestation effect on biodiversity <ul><li>De 12,853,796 poblaciones (60,894 spp) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>315,590 pob. (2.5%) de 13,250 especies (21.76%) estan en el Amazonas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Al menos una pob. de 1,662 especies (12.5%) esta extinta debido a cambios en UT </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>3.9% especies tienen mas de 5% de sus poblaciones ahora extintas </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>1.3% tienen mas de 10% y… 0.4% tinen mas que 20% </li></ul></ul></ul>From 2004 to mid-2009 [5.5 yrs]… Almost 2.5% of the Amazon’s biodiversity (the part we know) is under severe threat from LUC
  24. 24. Current threat to ecosystems
  25. 25. A half-day discussion after Climate-stable refugia: Protected areas Climate-stable refugia: Restoration
  26. 26. A half-day discussion after Corridors through agriculture to enable movement of biodiversity No future for biodiversity: Production
  27. 27. A half-day discussion after <ul><li>Conservation is a matter of the the number of species and uniqueness </li></ul><ul><li>Indigenous areas act as strong barriers to threats </li></ul><ul><li>Anthropogenic activities difficult conservation </li></ul><ul><li>Despite the strong threat from CC, there are areas likely to remain stable </li></ul><ul><li>Conservation should be the focus in “ climatically stable ” areas and under mid to low threat level </li></ul><ul><li>Restoration should focus in highly fragmented landscapes with mid to high climate vulnerability </li></ul><ul><li>Adapting biodiversity needs to consider crop suitability shifts as well </li></ul>
  28. 28. In situ conclusions <ul><li>Protected areas function today, at least on paper </li></ul><ul><li>Under a changed climate however, they do not effectively conserve biodiversity, even assuming maximum adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>In situ conservation needs to be oriented under the context of climate change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Areas to be strengthened (more control) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Areas to be expanded </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Areas to be re-located (if migration does occur) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Enabling migration is critical: corridors between protected areas </li></ul><ul><li>Redesigned functional landscapes also essential: Eco-efficient agriculture </li></ul>
  29. 29. Next steps on methods <ul><li>Some thoughts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Assessing uncertainties </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Other SRES, AVOID and finally RCP scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mammals, Reptiles, Aves (?), Amphibians </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Intermediate migration scenarios… how to assess species natural migrations? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“Acceptable” and expected extinction risks? </li></ul></ul>
  30. 30. Next steps… analysis of policy implications <ul><li>Similarities/dissimilarities between regions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Do current criteria for PA selection stand up to climate change? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What makes one protected area system more effective than another in combating climate change? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What needs to be changed? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Do we need a new conservation paradigm? More efficient systems? Or more coverage? </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural biodiversity needs to be assessed as well </li></ul><ul><li>Timber species, forests… ecosystem-level analyses required </li></ul>