Establishing a climate smart agricultural world

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What will it take to establish a climate smart agricultural world? Presentation on the problems, solutions and key challenges in Climate Smart Agriculture. Presentation made in the Wayamba Conference in Sri Lanka, August 2014.

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Establishing a climate smart agricultural world

  1. 1. Rising to the challenge of establishing a climate smart agriculture Andy Jarvis, CCAFS
  2. 2. The Challenge
  3. 3. The concentration of GHGs is rising Long-term implications for the climate and for crop suitability
  4. 4. Historical impacts on food security Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008. % Yield impact for wheat Lobell et al (2011)
  5. 5. 1. What is Climate Smart Agriculture? 2013
  6. 6. Why is CSA important? – Food Security Food security is at risk In order to meet global demands, we will need 60-70% more food by 2050.
  7. 7. Why is CSA important? – Food Security 2013 Maíz T-Max Yield Yield T-Max Arroz Climate drives yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it
  8. 8. Why is CSA important? - Adaptation Global wheat and maize yields: response to warming 2013
  9. 9. Agriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global greenhouse gas 2013 Why is CSA important? - Mitigation emissions (2010) Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands 13 Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestock, energy) Industrial processes Waste Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year Non-Ag Energy 70 11 4 2
  10. 10. Why is CSA important? - Mitigation “Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C world 2013 Gt CO2e per year 36 70 12 15 2010 2050 (Business as usual) 2050 (2°C target) Non-agricultural emissions Agricultural and land-use change emissions >70% 48 85 21
  11. 11. Message 1: In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.
  12. 12. Can we breed our way out of the problem?
  13. 13. Why do we need breeding? • For starters, we have novel climates: 30% of the world will experience novel combinations of climate
  14. 14. And also non-linear responses of crops to climates •For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed to temperatures >30˚C •In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS
  15. 15. Can we breed our way out of the problem? Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428 http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0066428
  16. 16. Message 3: Different breeding challenges for different crops, in different countries – no silver bullet!
  17. 17. 2. There are significant successes in CSA 2013
  18. 18. CSA options involve farms, landscapes, food systems and services landscape crops livestock fish food system services Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
  19. 19. CSA options for landscapes landscape Manage livestock & wildlife over wide areas Ensure close links between practice and policy (e.g. land use zoning) Restore degraded wetlands, peatlands, grasslands and watersheds Create diversity of land uses Increase cover of trees and perennials Harvest floods & manage groundwater Address coastal salinity & sea surges Protect against large-scale erosion
  20. 20. Example: Sustainable land management in Ethiopia  190,000 ha rehabilitated  98,000 households benefit  Cut-and-carry feed for livestock  380,000 m3 waterways  900,000 m3 compost Photos: W. Bewket, AAU
  21. 21. CSA options for crops & fields crops Crop diversification and “climate-ready” species and cultivars Altering cropping patterns & planting dates Better soil and nutrient management e.g. erosion control and micro-dosing Improved water use efficiency (irrigation systems, water micro-harvesting) Monitoring & managing new trends in pests and diseases Agroforestry, intercropping & on-farm biodiversity
  22. 22. NIGER Bringing back the Sahel’s ‘underground forest’  5 million ha of land restored, over 200 million trees re-established  Sequestratio n of carbon in soil and trees  Reduces drought impacts  Additional half a million tonnes of grain per year
  23. 23. CSA options for livestock livestock High-quality diets that increase conversion efficiency and reduce emissions Herd management e.g. sale or slaughter at different ages Livestock diversification and “climate-ready” species and breeds Changing patterns of pastoralism and use of water points Improved pasture management Use of human food waste for pigs & chickens
  24. 24. Example: Forest land use and cattle management in Brazil Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT  45% higher stocking density  no increase in pasture area  better pasture quality  40% reduction in emissions  agriculture decoupled from deforestation
  25. 25. CSA options for fisheries & aquaculture fish Greater energy efficiency in harvesting Better physical defences against sea surges Quota schemes matched to monitoring of fish stocks Reducing losses and wastage Less dependence of aquaculture on marine fish feed Rehabilitation of mangroves & breeding grounds
  26. 26. CSA options for food systems Changing diets food system More creative and efficient use of by-products Less energy-intensity in fertilizer production Improving resilience of infrastructure for storage & transport (e.g. roads, ports) Greater attention to food safety Reducing post-harvest losses & consumer wastage
  27. 27. Example: “Love Food Hate Waste” in United Kingdom  13 % less household food waste  consumers saving $4 billion  national water footprint down 4%  3.6 million tonnes CO2eq less per year
  28. 28. CSA options for services services Monitoring & data for food security, climate & ecosystems Early warning systems & weather forecasts Mobile phone, radio & other extension or information for farmers Research that links farmers & science Weather insurance & micro-finance Financial transfers & other “safety nets” for climate shocks
  29. 29. INDIA Weather-based insurance  12 million farmers & 40 different crops insured  Allows farmers to access fertilizer and better seed  Reduces pressure to bring more land under cultivation Reduces risks
  30. 30. Example: Seasonal weather forecasts in Senegal  3 million farmers get forecasts  70 community radio stations  better food security outcomes
  31. 31. 2. But major scaling up is needed
  32. 32. 1.4 billion living in Poverty 1 billion more People by 2030 1.5 billion people depend on Degraded Land USD 7.5 billion lost to extreme Weather (2010) Nearly 1 billion going Hungry 14% more Food needed per decade
  33. 33. So what are the targets? Target: Half a billion farmers practicing CSA Mitigation targets? Target: Half a billion with enhanced adaptive capacity DC Targets (2035) • 22% reduction in agricultural Scholes et al., 2013. Agriculture and Climate Change Mitigation in the Developing World emissions relative to the ‘business as usual’ baseline • 46% reduction in forestry and land use change, relative to a projection of current trends
  34. 34. Are these targets insurmountable? “63 million customers per day, so 500 million smallholders in the next decade is easy!” 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Relative 2012 = 100% Food demand Grain yield per ha GDP Cell phone penetration Global Harvest Initiative 2013 FAOSTAT World Bank/Standard Chartered GSMA/Deloitte Sub-Saharan Africa
  35. 35. 35 Requires a comprehensive approach • Partnerships: research and development, science and policy, public and private • Knowledge generation: practices/technologies, programmatic elements (insurance, climate information services) • Work on CSA enablers: (sub-)National policies, UNFCCC global process, donor agendas • Incentive mechanisms: innovative finance, private sector
  36. 36. Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying (AWD) • Keep flooded for 1st 15 days and at flowering • Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface 30% water 20-50% GHG Without compromising yield Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying 16 15.0 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -42% 8.7 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 t CO2-eq/ ha*season 4.9 -20% 3.9 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -28% -22% 6.0 4.7 6.4 4.6 Summer- Autumn Winter- Spring Sander et al. in press IRRI Conventional AWD
  37. 37. Addressing constraints From national level… to implementation at provincial level…. Slide by Bjoern Ole Sander, IRRI
  38. 38. Coffee-banana intercropping 3 2 1 0 2268 $ ha yr 4307 1286 $ ha yr 1770 Monocrops Intercrops Arabica (t/ha) Banana (tenth t/ha) Arabica systems Arabica Banana 1.5 1 0.5 0 Monocrops Intercrops Robusta (t/ha) Banana (tenth t/ha) Robusta systems Robusta Banana More carbon in the system Diversification Decreases drought impacts Increased income Enhanced food security
  39. 39. Leb by Climate smart villages: Key agricultural activities for managing risks
  40. 40. Strong national engagement
  41. 41. www.aclimatecolombia.org
  42. 42. Maximizing productivity in agricultural systems. Identifying the combination of factors that lead to high and low productivities (empirical approaches)
  43. 43. What defines yield? 51% of yield variation is caused by climate for rice
  44. 44. PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST 33 33 33 Above Normal Below 38 31 31 22 27 51 37 33 31 39 33 28 Agroclimatic Seasonal forecasting
  45. 45. First, understand the relationships + + = Climate Soil Crop management productivity/ha (including varieties) Relationships = + Forecasts + Empirical models + Mechanistic models Advisory Systems Robust decision making for Climate Smart Agriculture
  46. 46. Pulling the pieces together Climate resilience Baseline Adapted technologies Adapted technologies + Climate-specific management Adapted technologies + Climate-specific management + Seasonal agroclimatic forecasts Adapted technologies + Climate-specific management + Seasonal agroclimatic forecasts + Efficient resource use + Enabling environment NAPs and NAMAs Climate smartness Adapted technologies + Climate-specific management + Seasonal agroclimatic forecasts + Efficient resource use
  47. 47. Global learning
  48. 48. In summary…. • Challenge immense, but not insurmountable • CSA requires a comprehensive approach. Line up: – Technical – Financial – Policy • Two key factors for success: – Successfully building a business case for CSA – Addressing the constraints head on • Agricultural scientists need to support the drive towards CSA – Mainstreaming productivity, adaptation and mitigation into next generation of ag technologies
  49. 49. 50 www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins Twitter: @cgiarclimate

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