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Coffee and cocoa suitability map.
 

Coffee and cocoa suitability map.

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  • The rainfall increases from 2090 millimeters to 2095 millimeters in 2050 passing through 2080 in 2030Temperatures increase and the average increase is 2 ºC passing through an increment of 1.5 ºC in 2030 The mean daily temperature range increases from 11.1 ºC to 11.1 ºC in 2050 The maximum number of cumulative dry months decreases from 4 months to 3 months
  • The rainfall increases from 2034 millimeters to 2069 millimeters in 2050 passing through 2047 in 2030 Temperatures increase and the average increase is 2.1 ºC passing through an increment of 1.2 ºC in 2030 The mean daily temperature range increases from 9.4 ºC to 9.6 ºC in 2050 The maximum number of cumulative dry months decreases from 3 months to 2 months

Coffee and cocoa suitability map. Coffee and cocoa suitability map. Presentation Transcript

  • Global impact of climate change on Coffee and Cocoa Suitability O. Ovalle, P. Laderach, C. Bunn IIASA, Laxenburg. December 2011Pic by Lenareh Pic by N. Palmer
  • Outline • Methodology • Results - Coffee - Cacao • Next stepPic by N. Palmer
  • MethodologyPic by N. Palmer
  • Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability Climate base linePrecipitation: 47,554 locations Mean temperature: 24,542 locations Min – Max temp.: 14,835 locations 19 bioclimatic variables. Data base Worldclim: www.worldclim.org
  • Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability Global Climate Models (GCM)• 21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basing in science atmospheric, chemical, physical, biology• It runs from past to future.• There are different scenarios of gas emissions. POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY (EMISSIONS), AND SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY (MODELS)
  • Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability Global Climate Models (GCM)
  • Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability Process: Database• Data base CIAT for 2030 and 2050• For the elaboration of adapting paths http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/ Data Base
  • Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability GCM: scenarios Scenario A2 • Heterogeneous world • Increasing global population • Economics development is primarily regionally oriented • Technological change area more fragmented.
  • Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability Summary methodology Current climate • 19 bioclimatic variables (worldclim) Climate change • Downscaling • Generation of 19 bioclimatic variables Future climate • Current climate + change = Future climate
  • Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability Modelling coffee and cocoa Geo-referencing coffee and cocoa farms. Climate data  Training of technical assistants. MaxEnt
  • ResultsPic by N. Palmer
  • Coffee Pic by N. Palmer
  • Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability Global coffee distribution
  • Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitabilityFuture climate in coffee – growing Areas (mm) Precipitation Temperature (ºC) 300 25 24 2050 23 22 250 2030 21 20 current 19 200 - - + 18 17 16 - - 15 150 + + 14 13 12 + 11 10 9 100 + + + + 8 7 6 5 50 4 3 2 1 0 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
  • Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability Global coffee suitability map
  • Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability Global coffee suitability map
  • Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability Suitability vs altitude
  • Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability Coefficient of Variation (CV)
  • Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability Measure agreement
  • COCOAPic by Christine4nier
  • Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability Global cocoa distribution
  • Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitabilityFuture climate in cocoa – growing Areas (mm) Precipitation Temperature (ºC) 250 30 29 2050 28 2030 27 200 26 + + + + current 25 24 + + 23 150 + + 22 21 + + + 20 100 + 19 18 17 16 15 50 14 13 12 11 0 10 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
  • Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability Global cocoa suitability map
  • Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability Global cocoa suitability map
  • Results Global Cocoa suitability map Suitability vs altitude
  • Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability Coefficient of Variation (CV)
  • Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability Measure agreement
  • Next stepPic by N. Palmer
  • Next step. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability Relationship Suitability vs production• Objective: – Improve Impact assessments on perennial crops• Problem: – Alternative approaches are often unfeasible – The models assume constant economic conditions• Question: – How can we link Ecological Niche Models with partial equilibrium models to assess climate change impacts on the coffee industry and similar production systems?• Hypothesis: – Ecological Niche Models assign a „suitability“ score. From this score we can infer economic proxies to model future price conditions.
  • Thank you!!!