Coffee and cocoa suitability map.

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  • The rainfall increases from 2090 millimeters to 2095 millimeters in 2050 passing through 2080 in 2030Temperatures increase and the average increase is 2 ºC passing through an increment of 1.5 ºC in 2030 The mean daily temperature range increases from 11.1 ºC to 11.1 ºC in 2050 The maximum number of cumulative dry months decreases from 4 months to 3 months
  • The rainfall increases from 2034 millimeters to 2069 millimeters in 2050 passing through 2047 in 2030 Temperatures increase and the average increase is 2.1 ºC passing through an increment of 1.2 ºC in 2030 The mean daily temperature range increases from 9.4 ºC to 9.6 ºC in 2050 The maximum number of cumulative dry months decreases from 3 months to 2 months
  • Coffee and cocoa suitability map.

    1. 1. Global impact of climate change on Coffee and Cocoa Suitability O. Ovalle, P. Laderach, C. Bunn IIASA, Laxenburg. December 2011Pic by Lenareh Pic by N. Palmer
    2. 2. Outline • Methodology • Results - Coffee - Cacao • Next stepPic by N. Palmer
    3. 3. MethodologyPic by N. Palmer
    4. 4. Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability Climate base linePrecipitation: 47,554 locations Mean temperature: 24,542 locations Min – Max temp.: 14,835 locations 19 bioclimatic variables. Data base Worldclim: www.worldclim.org
    5. 5. Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability Global Climate Models (GCM)• 21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basing in science atmospheric, chemical, physical, biology• It runs from past to future.• There are different scenarios of gas emissions. POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY (EMISSIONS), AND SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY (MODELS)
    6. 6. Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability Global Climate Models (GCM)
    7. 7. Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability Process: Database• Data base CIAT for 2030 and 2050• For the elaboration of adapting paths http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/ Data Base
    8. 8. Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability GCM: scenarios Scenario A2 • Heterogeneous world • Increasing global population • Economics development is primarily regionally oriented • Technological change area more fragmented.
    9. 9. Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability Summary methodology Current climate • 19 bioclimatic variables (worldclim) Climate change • Downscaling • Generation of 19 bioclimatic variables Future climate • Current climate + change = Future climate
    10. 10. Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability Modelling coffee and cocoa Geo-referencing coffee and cocoa farms. Climate data  Training of technical assistants. MaxEnt
    11. 11. ResultsPic by N. Palmer
    12. 12. Coffee Pic by N. Palmer
    13. 13. Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability Global coffee distribution
    14. 14. Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitabilityFuture climate in coffee – growing Areas (mm) Precipitation Temperature (ºC) 300 25 24 2050 23 22 250 2030 21 20 current 19 200 - - + 18 17 16 - - 15 150 + + 14 13 12 + 11 10 9 100 + + + + 8 7 6 5 50 4 3 2 1 0 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
    15. 15. Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability Global coffee suitability map
    16. 16. Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability Global coffee suitability map
    17. 17. Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability Suitability vs altitude
    18. 18. Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability Coefficient of Variation (CV)
    19. 19. Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability Measure agreement
    20. 20. COCOAPic by Christine4nier
    21. 21. Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability Global cocoa distribution
    22. 22. Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitabilityFuture climate in cocoa – growing Areas (mm) Precipitation Temperature (ºC) 250 30 29 2050 28 2030 27 200 26 + + + + current 25 24 + + 23 150 + + 22 21 + + + 20 100 + 19 18 17 16 15 50 14 13 12 11 0 10 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
    23. 23. Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability Global cocoa suitability map
    24. 24. Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability Global cocoa suitability map
    25. 25. Results Global Cocoa suitability map Suitability vs altitude
    26. 26. Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability Coefficient of Variation (CV)
    27. 27. Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability Measure agreement
    28. 28. Next stepPic by N. Palmer
    29. 29. Next step. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability Relationship Suitability vs production• Objective: – Improve Impact assessments on perennial crops• Problem: – Alternative approaches are often unfeasible – The models assume constant economic conditions• Question: – How can we link Ecological Niche Models with partial equilibrium models to assess climate change impacts on the coffee industry and similar production systems?• Hypothesis: – Ecological Niche Models assign a „suitability“ score. From this score we can infer economic proxies to model future price conditions.
    30. 30. Thank you!!!

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