Climate smart crops for 2030: The CCAFS vision


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Presentation made to introduce the workshop on Climate Smart Crops for 2030 held in ILRI campus, Addis Ababa December 6th-8th 2011.

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  • For Lobell map: Values show the linear trend in temperature for the main crop grown in that grid cell, and for the months in which that crop is grown. Values indicate the trend in terms of multiples of the standard deviation of historical year-to-year variation. ** A 1˚C rise tended to lower yields by up to 10% except in high latitude countries, where in particular rice gains from warming. ** In India, warming may explain the recently slowing of yield gains. For yield graph: Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields for major producers and for global production. Values are expressed as percent of average yield. Gray bars show median estimate and error bars show 5-95% confidence interval from bootstrap resampling with 500 replicates. Red and blue dots show median estimate of impact for T trend and P trend, respectively. ** At the global scale, maize and wheat exhibited negative impacts for several major producers and global net loss of 3.8% and 5.5% relative to what would have been achieved without the climate trends in 1980-2008. In absolute terms, these equal the annual production of maize in Mexico (23 MT) and wheat in France (33 MT), respectively. Source: Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980 David B. Lobell 1 , , Wolfram Schlenker 2 , 3 , and Justin Costa-Roberts 1 Science magazine
  • Why focus on Food security And climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets 60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
  • Carbon becomes a commodity, and a profitable one at that. Can smallholders get a piece of the action?
  • Challenge Program then CGIAR Research Program Theme Leaders spread across CG system and the global change community in advanced research institutes New way of working – deliberately networked
  • In a sense all CCAFS work is geared towards enhancing capacity to anticipate and manage different and uncertain climatic futures Capacity enhancement integrated into all themes CCAFS’s comparative advantage is in policy-oriented research So gearing capacity enhancement activities in this area
  • Culmination of perhaps a decade of work but has come out under CCAFS led by Phil Thornton Will generate series/runs of simulated future climate data (daily temperature and rainfall) for any coordinates on the planet These data crucial for e.g. estimating future crop suitability/yields/failures Also have made available set of downscaled climate data sets – strong demand from developing countries and over 200 downloads
  • Climate smart crops for 2030: The CCAFS vision

    1. 2. The Challenge
    2. 3. The concentration of GHGs is rising Long-term implications for the climate and for crop suitability
    3. 4. Historical impacts on food security % Yield impact for wheat Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008. Lobell et al (2011)
    4. 5. Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050 Crop suitability is changing
    5. 6. <ul><li>In order to meet global demands, we will need </li></ul><ul><li>60-70% </li></ul><ul><li>more food </li></ul><ul><li>by 2050. </li></ul>Food security is at risk
    6. 7. Message 1: In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.
    7. 8. Left : Example of a silvo-pastoral system 2006 2007 2008 Ecosystem valuation Spot the livestock! Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)
    8. 9. CO 2 Fertilisation <ul><li>Enhanced CO 2 fertilisation, with great potential for some crops </li></ul>
    9. 10. Message 2: With new challenges also come new opportunities.
    10. 11. Program Design
    11. 12. CCAFS: the partnership
    12. 13. <ul><li>Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. </li></ul><ul><li>Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies , and of climate issues in agricultural policies , at all levels. </li></ul>CCAFS objectives
    13. 14. The CCAFS Framework Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability and Change <ul><li>Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for: </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk </li></ul><ul><li>Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation </li></ul>Improved Environmental Health Improved Rural Livelihoods Improved Food Security Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems Trade-offs and Synergies <ul><li>4. Integration for Decision Making </li></ul><ul><li>Linking Knowledge with Action </li></ul><ul><li>Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning </li></ul><ul><li>Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis </li></ul>
    14. 15. Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices The CGIAR Research Centers Lead center - CIAT
    15. 16. Place-based field work Indo- Gangetic Plains : There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise; the intensity and probability of extreme events will likely increase. Regional director: Pramod Aggarwal East Africa : Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress. Regional director: James Kinyangi West Africa : Extreme rainfall variability impedes precipitation predictions, but the Sahel will likely experience shorter growing periods. Regional director: Robert Zougmor é
    16. 17. Progressive Adaptation <ul><li>THE VISION </li></ul><ul><li>To adapt farming systems, we need to: </li></ul><ul><li>Close the production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies </li></ul><ul><li>Increase the bar : develop new ways to increase food production potential </li></ul><ul><li>Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level </li></ul>
    17. 18. Risk Management <ul><li>THE VISION </li></ul><ul><li>Climate-related risk impedes development , leading to chronic poverty and dependency </li></ul><ul><li>Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations . </li></ul></ul>
    18. 19. Pro-poor Mitigation VISION Short-term : Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes Long-term : Addressing conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation
    19. 20. Integration <ul><li>VISION </li></ul><ul><li>Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework , grounded in the policy context </li></ul><ul><li>Synthesize lessons learned </li></ul><ul><li>Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers </li></ul><ul><li>Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions </li></ul><ul><li>Build partners’ capacity </li></ul>
    20. 21. Cross-cutting principles, activities & outputs
    21. 22. Building a user-driven agenda <ul><li>From large-scale stakeholder consultations </li></ul><ul><li>e.g. GCARD, regional meetings </li></ul><ul><li>Specific exercises with selected groups </li></ul><ul><li>e.g. Venice meeting, regional scenarios, farmer testimonials </li></ul>From local to regional to global
    22. 23. Mainstream outputs and outcomes For research partners to generate useful data, tools, and results. CLIFF, meteorological services, climate and agricultural research institutes, the Climate Food and Farming PhD student network For policy partners to demand and use data, tools, and results Governments, civil society, development organizations, farmers’ organizations, private sector e.g. User-driven regional scenarios
    23. 24. People or organizations increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently. A Definition <ul><li>Adaptation requires embedded local capacity, not external solutions </li></ul><ul><li>CCAFS aims to enhance both (a) research capacities and (b) capacities to link knowledge and action </li></ul>The CCAFS Vision Capacity enhancement
    24. 25. <ul><li>Social groups differ in (a) vulnerability to climate change and (b) abilities to respond </li></ul><ul><li>30% of CCAFS research budget will address gender & social differentiation </li></ul><ul><li>Early work in gender studies, opportunities for women scientists </li></ul>Social differentiation
    25. 26. Progressive Adaptation <ul><li>THE VISION </li></ul><ul><li>To adapt farming systems, we need to: </li></ul><ul><li>Close the production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies </li></ul><ul><li>Increase the bar : develop new ways to increase food production potential </li></ul><ul><li>Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level </li></ul>
    26. 27. Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
    27. 28. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 <ul><li>1.1 </li></ul><ul><li>Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites) </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural knowledge transfer </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of enabling policies and instit. mechanisms </li></ul>Adapted farming systems <ul><li>1.2 </li></ul><ul><li>Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Regional fora to discuss and set priorities </li></ul>Breeding strategies for climate stresses <ul><li>1.3 </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge for better use of germplasm for adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>On-farm use of diversity to adapt </li></ul><ul><li>Policies of access for benefit sharing </li></ul>Species and genetic diversity
    28. 29. Why do we need breeding? <ul><li>For starters, we have novel climates </li></ul>
    29. 30. Cassava pests under climate change Cassava pests hotspots - 2050
    30. 31. Development of strategies Milestone Research and policy organizations actively engaged in research design ; one regional breeding strategy workshop involving regional decision-making and priority setting bodies delivered in each of 3 initial target regions (2011) Milestone Crop breeding institutions coordinated in development of climate-proofed crops for a 2030-2050 world; Document written jointly by CCAFS and crop breeding institutions outlining coordinated plans for breeding . (2012) Milestone Range of crop modeling approaches developed and evaluated for biotic and abiotic constraints for the period 2020 to 2050; findings presented in summary report and at key stakeholders meetings ; including modelling approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change and the effects of adaptation technologies such as supplemental irrigation and water harvesting on water availability for crops and their productivity under decadal futures from 2020 to 2050 (2013). Milestone Detailed crop-by-crop strategies and plans of action for crop improvement developed, incorporating portfolio of national, regional and global priorities; findings presented in summary report (2015) Milestone Set of “virtual crops” designed and assessed for their efficacy in addressing the likely future conditions in terms of the economic, social and cultural benefits expected; findings presented in summary report and journal article. Engagement of ARI modeling groups (e.g. Leeds University), NARES scientists (2014) Milestone Set of breeding strategies identified and socialized with funding bodies, national and international organizations , universities and other actors; findings presented in summary report and policy briefs (including percentage of total food crop production (in recent history) accounted for by set of breeding strategies) (2015)
    31. 32. Dissemination of strategies Milestone High-level meetings held with key stakeholders resulting in mainstreaming of new breeding strategies in workplans and existing breeding programs. (2015) Milestone Global, regional and national policy briefs produced for investments in climate-proofed crop breeding initiatives (2015) Milestone (2015) One policy briefing meeting per region based on the briefs in Milestone Policy recommendations provided to national agencies, policy makers and key actors in the agricultural sector on how to target strategies to enable equitable access by different social groups (e.g. pastoralists, fishers, urban farmers) and by women and men. (2015)
    32. 34. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Farms of the future The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality What CCAFS output? Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials Why is it useful?
    33. 36. >> Multi-site agricultural trial database( 20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites Effect of +1ºC warming on yield Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought Lobell et al. 2011
    34. 37. <ul><li>Over 3,000 trials </li></ul><ul><li>16 crops </li></ul><ul><li>20 countries </li></ul><ul><li>> 15 international and national institutions </li></ul>New data >> Multi-site agricultural trial database(
    35. 38. >> Spotlight on: Integration for Decision Making · 4 A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe What CCAFS outputs? To drive agricultural impact models for climate change studies Why is it useful?
    36. 39. stay in touch sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate