Climate change in the subtropics: The impacts of projected averages and variability on banana productivity   J. Ramirez,  ...
Introduction <ul><li>Bananas are of tropical origin    when grown in subtropics, they are subject to strong environmental...
Introduction <ul><li>But more profound analysis is required: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Subtropical production of bananas is hi...
Methodology <ul><li>Five-stage analysis: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identification of current banana areas by means of expert c...
Identification of current banana areas by means of expert consultation <ul><li>Steps: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Send the count...
Identification of current banana areas by means of expert consultation
Methodology <ul><li>Current climate data derived from WorldClim (Hijmans et al. 2005, http://www.worldclim.org)  </li></ul...
Methodology <ul><li>EcoCrop model : uses mean and min/max monthly temperature and monthly precipitation data to evaluate t...
Results:   Current suitability + limiting factor
Results:   2020s suitability + change
Results:   2050s suitability + change
Results:   Homoclims <ul><li>Northern India </li></ul><ul><li>Southern Brazil </li></ul>
Discussion and conclusions <ul><li>Current banana production in subtropics challenged mainly by low temperature and drough...
Discussion and conclusions <ul><li>Adaptive strategies for subtropical banana production will need to focus on drought ada...
Discussion and conclusions… <ul><ul><li>Genetic improvement : Centre of origin of  Musa  is SE Asia where climatic conditi...
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David B / Julian R - Climate change and subtropical bananas (2010 08 22 ESRI User Conference)

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  • Underline the process to obtain the current banana production areas
  • In most cases the expert print the map, marks the areas over it, scan the marked map and send it back to us.
  • Current map after merge all the maps after expert consultation
  • This is just to show from where we take the climate data
  • The International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, with the support of Bioversity International and the International Potato Centre (CIP) has developed a simple mechanistic model based on the FAO database of crop ecological requirements Ecocrop. The model, which stands with the same name as the FAO&apos;s database uses temperature and precipitation thresholds in order to evaluate the suitability of a certain place to hold a certain crop species by means of the WorldClim database (Hijmans et al., 2005). The model was implemented in the software DIVA-GIS (Hijmans et al., 2005) and has been largely used to predict suitability of various crops under different climatic conditions – Of course you know what it is…
  • While, as can be expected for a tropical crop, overall suitability in the subtropics is much lower than in the tropics, there is a great variation between the different subtropical sites. Some of our key sites have reasonably high suitability (Paraguay, Formosa in Argentina, the Mozambique-South Africa border and Hainan province in China), while others have very low suitability (northern India, southern non-coastal China, southern Brazil, northern Morocco and the Canary Islands). Rainfall is the most limiting factor in most sites (Fig. 1b), except in Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil.
  • Of the 9 key sites, 3 sites seem to be largely unaffected by expected changes in climate in 2020s (the Mozambique-South Africa border, the Canary islands and northern Morocco), 4 sites will be disadvantaged (northern India, Paraguay, Formosa in Argentina and southern coastal China including Hainan province), and 2 sites are expected to become more favorable for banana production (southern Brazil and southern non-coastal China. We can thus not generalize across the subtropics, but need to deal with each region individually.
  • These trends are confirmed in 2050s.
  • The larger the homoclime area and the higher the probability, the more likely it is to achieve significant impact through technology transfer to homologue sites and adoption by farmers, current and in future The highest proportion (in terms of area) in similarity, meaning the highest potential for transferability of technologies between sites, was found for the northern India, with 49% of the total aggregated area being a homoclime with a probability threshold above 0.1. The Canary Islands and northern Morocco, on the other hand, resulted as areas with a very low proportion of homoclimes, probably due to their marked dry periods throughout the year. Southern Brazil also had only a very small proportion of homoclimes.
  • The highest proportion (in terms of area) in similarity, meaning the highest potential for transferability of technologies between sites, was found for the northern India, with 49% of the total aggregated area being a homoclime with a probability threshold above 0.1. The Canary Islands and northern Morocco, on the other hand, resulted as areas with a very low proportion of homoclimes, probably due to their marked dry periods throughout the year. Southern Brazil also had only a very small proportion of homoclimes.
  • The highest proportion (in terms of area) in similarity, meaning the highest potential for transferability of technologies between sites, was found for the northern India, with 49% of the total aggregated area being a homoclime with a probability threshold above 0.1. The Canary Islands and northern Morocco, on the other hand, resulted as areas with a very low proportion of homoclimes, probably due to their marked dry periods throughout the year. Southern Brazil also had only a very small proportion of homoclimes.
  • Using a simple technique we have obtained usefull data that could be used to make complex analysis like the we have presented
  • David B / Julian R - Climate change and subtropical bananas (2010 08 22 ESRI User Conference)

    1. 1. Climate change in the subtropics: The impacts of projected averages and variability on banana productivity J. Ramirez, D. Turner , I. Van den Bergh, C. Staver, D. Brown and A. Jarvis ESRI User Conference – July, 2011
    2. 2. Introduction <ul><li>Bananas are of tropical origin  when grown in subtropics, they are subject to strong environmental constraints, mainly low temperature but also drought </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature and rainfall are expected to change at unprecedented rate in coming decades (IPCC, 2007)  potentially huge impact on banana production, both in tropical and subtropical regions </li></ul><ul><li>Review of the impacts of climate change on Musa (Ramirez et al. 2010) suggests that future climates will be less suitable in >70% of global land areas (mainly tropical areas), but there could be gains towards subtropics </li></ul>
    3. 3. Introduction <ul><li>But more profound analysis is required: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Subtropical production of bananas is highly diverse activity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Varieties used in the subtropics are likely to be adapted to different conditions of annual variability in climates than tropical varieties </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Some impacts and responses are largely site specific and thus so are the adaptation measures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A calibrated approach only for subtropical production of bananas is required </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Our objective was to estimate the effect of expected climate changes on banana production in the subtropics </li></ul>
    4. 4. Methodology <ul><li>Five-stage analysis: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identification of current banana areas by means of expert consultation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Calibration of a model and modeling of the suitability of current banana production areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Modeling of expected suitability (i.e. 2020s, 2050s) and changes in suitability of subtropical banana production areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Analysis of changes in yearly seasonality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identification of homoclimes for potential technology transfer options </li></ul></ul>
    5. 5. Identification of current banana areas by means of expert consultation <ul><li>Steps: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Send the country map to a expert on that country </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expert marks over the map banana production areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expert send back the map to us and we digitize the map </li></ul></ul>
    6. 6. Identification of current banana areas by means of expert consultation
    7. 7. Methodology <ul><li>Current climate data derived from WorldClim (Hijmans et al. 2005, http://www.worldclim.org) </li></ul><ul><li>Climate surfaces for monthly maximum, minimum, mean temperatures and total monthly precipitation used to characterize the locations where banana production was identified by experts and to model the suitability of these locations for bananas </li></ul><ul><li>Future projections of global climate data obtained at original Global Climate Model resolution from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, phase 3 web data portal, under Earth System Grid online platform (https://esg.llnl.gov:8443/index.jsp) </li></ul>
    8. 8. Methodology <ul><li>EcoCrop model : uses mean and min/max monthly temperature and monthly precipitation data to evaluate the suitability of a location for a crop </li></ul><ul><li>Model calibration for subtropical banana: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing season duration Gs = 365 days </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Monthly min temperature below which crop dies Tkill = 0°C </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Monthly min temperature below which crop stops growing Tmin = 12°C </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Monthly max temperature above which crop stops growing Tmax = 33°C </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Optimum growth between Topmin = 17.5°C and Topmax = 26.3°C </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rainfed crop fails due to drought below Rmin = 200 mm/year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Crop fails due to waterlogging above Rmax = 4,000 mm/year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Optimum growth between 900 and 1,760 mm/year and good drainage </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Definition of suitability ranges: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Beyond absolute thresholds (Tmin, Tmax, Rmin, Rmax): suitability 0% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Between absolute and optimum thresholds: suitability 1-99% (linear) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Within optimum conditions: suitability 100% </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Calculations for precipitation and temperature done separately; their product is final suitability score </li></ul>
    9. 9. Results: Current suitability + limiting factor
    10. 10. Results: 2020s suitability + change
    11. 11. Results: 2050s suitability + change
    12. 12. Results: Homoclims <ul><li>Northern India </li></ul><ul><li>Southern Brazil </li></ul>
    13. 13. Discussion and conclusions <ul><li>Current banana production in subtropics challenged mainly by low temperature and drought </li></ul><ul><li>In future, temperature expected to increase in all subtropical areas investigated, while changes in rainfall patterns vary </li></ul>
    14. 14. Discussion and conclusions <ul><li>Adaptive strategies for subtropical banana production will need to focus on drought adaptation, while maintaining attention for below-optimal temperature: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Change in crop management and technology transfer to vulnerable areas : Improved irrigation technology, targeted planting dates and water application to reduce water demands and exposure to low temperatures and for key market periods, soil/water management to increase water capture and holding capacity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Change in cultivars : Substitution of cultivars with greater tolerance to drought and temperature extremes </li></ul></ul>
    15. 15. Discussion and conclusions… <ul><ul><li>Genetic improvement : Centre of origin of Musa is SE Asia where climatic conditions are highly variable, but domestication occurred in humid and/or sub-humid climates  Musa genepool has only been barely exploited for traits related to abiotic stress. Some wild species are known to hold useful traits, including tolerance to cold ( M. sikkimensis , M. basjoo , M. thomsonii ) and drought ( M. balbisiana , M. nagensium) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expansion of area : Based on increasing minimum temperatures, and in those areas where rainfall or maximum temperatures are not (or do not become) limiting </li></ul></ul>
    16. 16. Thank you
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