Climate change and Food Security in Latin America

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Presentation madeby Andy Jarvis in the primer Cumbre Latin Americano de Regiones sobre seguridad alimentario on the 11th October, 2011 in medellin, Colombia.

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  • For Lobell map: Values show the linear trend in temperature for the main crop grown in that grid cell, and for the months in which that crop is grown. Values indicate the trend in terms of multiples of the standard deviation of historical year-to-year variation. ** A 1˚C rise tended to lower yields by up to 10% except in high latitude countries, where in particular rice gains from warming.** In India, warming may explain the recently slowing of yield gains. For yield graph: Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields for major producers and for global production. Values are expressed as percent of average yield. Gray bars show median estimate and error bars show 5-95% confidence interval from bootstrap resampling with 500 replicates. Red and blue dots show median estimate of impact for T trend and P trend, respectively. **At the global scale, maize and wheat exhibited negative impacts for several major producers and global net loss of 3.8% and 5.5% relative to what would have been achieved without the climate trends in 1980-2008. In absolute terms, these equal the annual production of maize in Mexico (23 MT) and wheat in France (33 MT), respectively.Source:Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980David B. Lobell1,*, Wolfram Schlenker2,3, and Justin Costa-Roberts1Science magazine
  • Why focus on Food securityAnd climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
  • Here we have price rises to 2050 for three economic scenarios, an optimistic, baseline and pessimistic one.For maize, rice and wheat. The green is the impact due to economic and demographic changes, the red ….. THERE IS NO RED.Projections suggest that food prices are likely to increase considerably in the 21st century; this is unlike what happened in the 20th century, where prices fell or remained constant.And this is for an optimistic temperature rise – a two degree world
  • La contribución de la agricultura al PIB ha estadoentre 10 y 14% en los últimos 14 años. 21% empleos
  • ANIMATED SLIDE. Example of systemic adjustments vs. structural adaptation with the coffee supply chain. Shading is one example of an adjustment, whereas larger scale, transformational, “structural adaptation” requires larger changes, which in this case can occur via certifications of climate-proofed coffee (C4 label). This creates an incentive for retailers and federations to invest in more sustainable coffee production (e.g., organic) and more resilient inputs (e.g., certain varietals). The result is adaptive change all along the supply chain.
  • ANIMATED SLIDE.
  • Climate change and Food Security in Latin America

    1. 1. Cambioclimatico y la seguridadalimentaria<br />Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata, Peter Laderach<br />Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical, CIAT<br />
    2. 2. El Reto<br />
    3. 3. Concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero<br />Implicaciones a largo plazo en el clima, y aptitud climática para producir cultivos<br />
    4. 4. Historical impacts on food security<br />Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008. <br />Lobell et al (2011) <br />% Yield impact <br />for wheat<br />
    5. 5. Objectives<br />Perceptions<br />“Rain has become very irregularly, this year we suffered drought followed by heavy rains during Broccoli season”<br />Two small-farmers & brothers, Guatemala, Patzún, October, 2010<br />
    6. 6. La adaptabilidadpara los cultivosvacambiando<br />Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050<br />
    7. 7. Seguridad alimentario en riesgo<br />In order to meet global demands, we will need<br />60-70% <br />more food <br />by 2050.<br />
    8. 8. Food Prices are Likely to Increase…<br />Nelsonet al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS<br />% price increase 2010-2050<br />Maize Rice Wheat<br />8<br />ISPC Science Forum 2011<br />
    9. 9. Climate Change Will Add Greatly to Price Increases…<br />% price increase 2010-2050<br />Maize Rice Wheat<br />Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS<br />9<br />ISPC Science Forum 2011<br />
    10. 10. Mitigacionrefiere a la reduccion de emisiones de gases de efectoinvernadero<br />Colombia aporta 0.37% de emisionesglobales<br />35-40% proviene del sector agropecuario<br />Adaptacionrefiere a procesosqueaumenta la capacidad de enfrentar los impactos de cambioclimatico<br />Mitigacion y Adaptacion<br />
    11. 11. Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases<br />excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq<br />Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008<br />
    12. 12. Modelos: Cómo saber qué pasará?<br />
    13. 13. Modelos GCM : “Global Climate Models”<br />21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basados en ciencias atmosféricas, química, física, biología<br />Se corre desde el pasado hasta el futuro<br />Hay diferentes escenarios de emisiones de gases<br />INCERTIDUMBRE POLITICO (EMISIONES), Y INCERTIDUMBRE CIENTIFICO (MODELOS)<br />
    14. 14. Entonces, ¿qué es lo que dicen?<br />
    15. 15. Variabilidad y linea base<br />+<br />Climate<br />Baseline<br />_<br />Timescale<br />Short(change in baseline and variability)Long<br />
    16. 16.
    17. 17.
    18. 18.
    19. 19. Climate change<br />predictions for 2050<br />Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) <br />Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá<br />By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C<br />The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C <br />The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C <br />By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters. <br />“It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”<br />
    20. 20. Los Problemas<br />
    21. 21. Un Ejemplo<br />El susto de café en Cauca y las areas protegidas<br />
    22. 22. Desplazamiento de climas hacia altitudes mayores <br />Temperatura media reduce por 0.51oC por cada 100m en la zona cafetera. Un cambio de 2.2oC equivale a una diferencia de 440m.<br />
    23. 23. MECETA<br />Adaptabilidad para café en Cauca, Colombia<br />Cambios leves a 2020, y cambios drásticos a 2050<br />Se reduce el área cultivable. Algunas nuevas oportunidades<br />
    24. 24. Un análisis sectorial para Colombia<br />
    25. 25. Impactos en Colombia: cambio (%) en productividad a nivelNacional<br />
    26. 26. Cambiospromedios en adaptabilidadpordepartamento<br />
    27. 27. Dos casosdiferentes: Bolivar vs. Cauca<br />
    28. 28. Preliminary results<br />Bogota’s food security<br />
    29. 29. Climate change<br />predictions for 2050<br />Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) <br />Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá<br />By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C<br />The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C <br />The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C <br />By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters. <br />“It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”<br />
    30. 30. Exposure<br />by changing crop suitability of Potato<br />Potato<br />
    31. 31. Exposure<br />by changing crop suitability of cassava<br />Cassava<br />
    32. 32. Reportesmunicipales de vulnerabilidad<br />
    33. 33. HaciaSoluciones<br />
    34. 34. Adaptive Adjustments<br />Structural Adaptation<br />Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers have adapted their production system to a changing climate.<br />Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4-certified “climate-proofed” coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure.<br />Action:<br />a) Shading<br />b) Changing varietals<br />c) Changing inputs<br />a) Shading<br />Result: Improved risk management at the farm level, allowing for long-term adaption.<br />C4<br />Input Providers<br />Wholesale/Retail<br />Coffee Federation<br />Consumer<br />Coffee Producers<br />Other Crops<br />
    35. 35. Transformational Adaptation<br />Action: <br />Migrate to keep farming<br />Change farming systems (agricultural)<br />Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural)<br />Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs.<br />Coffee Producers<br />
    36. 36. Opciones de adaptación y mitigación: Arroz de riego y secano<br />Medidas de Adaptación<br />Medidas de Mitigación <br />Reducir el consumo volumétrico del agua.<br />Reducir el uso de fertilizantes en los sistemas productivos.<br />Mejorar el manejo de los residuos de la cosecha y post-cosecha en el campo.<br />Uso de hongos fijadores de nitrógeno <br />Inhibición de nitrificación biológica. <br />Seguros agrícolas.<br />Adecuación de distritos de riego actuales.<br />Aumento del área irrigada.<br />Desarrollo de nuevas variedades.<br />Cambio varietal<br />Nota: algunas de las medidas de mitigación propuestas para el subsector de arroz, pueden ser también empleadas como medidas de adaptación<br />
    37. 37. Análisiscosto-eficacia de lasmedidas<br />Medidas como el manejo del agua y de los residuos de cosecha: las más recomendables<br />Manejo racional de la fertilización: solo para algunas regiones productoras. <br />Aumento anual promedio (aprox) de los costos (US$2005):<br />Mitigación: US$130 millones <br />Adaptación: US$45 millones <br />Los mayores incrementos estarán relacionados con la adquisición de equipos, las obras de infraestructura y los costos de producción de los cultivos. <br />Curva de abatimiento en arroz<br />
    38. 38. Como adaptamos?<br />Necesitamos saber quehacemos, como lo hacemos, cuando lo hacemos y donde?<br />Primeropasoesanalisar el problema<br />Segundo, analisaropciones de adaptacion: politicas, practicas, tecnologias, inversiones<br />Evaluarcosto-beneficio<br />Implementar<br />INVESTIGACION Y DESARROLLO TECNOLOGICO<br />POLITICAS PUBLICOS Y PRIVADOS<br />BUEN AGRONOMIA<br />
    39. 39. Email: a.jarvis@cgiar.org<br />Internet: http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org<br />

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