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CIAT and IPNI at the 23rd ASIC conference

by Decision and Policy Analysis Program

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Presenting the paper by P. Läderach, T. Oberthür, O. Ovalle and A. Eitzinger on “Impacts of global climate change in Mesoamerican coffee systems” within the first of two sub sessions of the ...

Presenting the paper by P. Läderach, T. Oberthür, O. Ovalle and A. Eitzinger on “Impacts of global climate change in Mesoamerican coffee systems” within the first of two sub sessions of the Coffee Agronomy – Sustainability and Agroecology block.

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Can you change the color to dark green?
Peter, please indicate where the data came from? See below and paper150 farms I understand. But where? Who did the work / interviews? CIATSee summary of the methodology:Sensitivity and adaptive capacityLivelihoods are characterized by the assets that comprise the resources needed to create new resources, DFID has identified the five most important assets for smallholder farmers (1999). They comprise the human, social, financial, natural and physical asst. We identified 18 relevant indicators through workshops with farmers, expert consultation and literature review (Table 1). Table 1: Eighteen identified indicators with number of question in parenthesis across five assets.Human AssetSocial AssetPhysical Asset- Access to formal and informal education (11)- Level of knowledge of farming system management (8)- Health and feeding (4)- Organization (6)- Take decisions / work distribution (2) - Access routes (3) - Transport of products (2)- Quality of accommodation (3) Natural AssetFinancial Asset- Access and availability of water (7)- Contamination (6)- Conservation (4)- Soil conditions and fertility (6) - Credit access (6)- Variability of production (2)- Price variability (1)- Variability in annual revenue and income diversification (3)- Access to markets (4)- Access to alternative technology (2) Each indicator consists several questions, which are divided in different categories. For example a question of the indicator access and availability of water is “What is the quality of your drinkable water?” and the possible answers cover the categories from low to high sensitivity very bad quality to very good quality. The questions of each indicator are being averaged in a Compound index CI and weighted by a group of experts (W). Equation 2 summarises the approach. Sensitivity/ Adaptive capacity = W1H (CI1) + W2S (CI2) +W3P (CI3) +W4N (CI4) +W5F (CI5) H: Human Asset, S= Social Asset, P=Physical Asset, N=Natural Asset, F= Financial AssetW1-W5 = Weighting factorCI1-CI5 = Compound Index by capital The 150 producing families interviewed were selected according to their exposure to climate change regarding coffee and 30 most important crops and the poverty index ( Ref).
How is suitability been defined? The probability that coffee grows well. Suitability here is probability of being less suitable? It is the future suitability minus the current suitability. Negative area loose in suitability and positive gain in suitability. This is Maxent, correct? Yes
Maxent? YesSuitability as before? CorrectIs this suitability an average from all the 16 downscaled model inputs? Yes, CV is of crude data input in Maxent and Measure of agreement of Maxent output. We did run the Maxent 16 times.Or derived from input of one specific model to Maxent? 16 times
Can you please take area per altitude line out? This is very important is shows that there is no more area available further up and that coffee will compete even more with protected areas. PES discussion.If you cannot, explain to what does it pertain: current or 2050? It simply shows the area available at each altitude current and future. Just area per altitude.
-What are these municipalities? All the coffee growing areas in Nica or just part of them? Yes
Price: 2050 US$ / tPrice/VolumeWe have the data from: http://www.magfor.gob.ni/estadisticas/descargas/estadi_anual/cafe02.pdfIt is 90.000 in stead of 9.000
Explanation is needed as to what we see here.This is the summary of the livelihoods analysis for the entire country.Change to same format at previous graphs and text.Has been done
Explain Sensitivity and Capacity to adaptExplain how both have been definedMethodology: Is same data as in spider graph but mapped.Livelihoods are characterized by the assets that comprise the resources needed to create new resources, DFID has identified the five most important assets for smallholder farmers (1999). They comprise the human, social, financial, natural and physical asst. We identified 18 relevant indicators through workshops with farmers, expert consultation and literature review (Table 1). Table 1: Eighteen identified indicators with number of question in parenthesis across five assets.Human AssetSocial AssetPhysical Asset- Access to formal and informal education (11)- Level of knowledge of farming system management (8)- Health and feeding (4)- Organization (6)- Take decisions / work distribution (2) - Access routes (3) - Transport of products (2)- Quality of accommodation (3) Natural AssetFinancial Asset- Access and availability of water (7)- Contamination (6)- Conservation (4)- Soil conditions and fertility (6) - Credit access (6)- Variability of production (2)- Price variability (1)- Variability in annual revenue and income diversification (3)- Access to markets (4)- Access to alternative technology (2) Each indicator consists several questions, which are divided in different categories. For example a question of the indicator access and availability of water is “What is the quality of your drinkable water?” and the possible answers cover the categories from low to high sensitivity very bad quality to very good quality. The questions of each indicator are being averaged in a Compound index CI and weighted by a group of experts (W). Equation 2 summarises the approach. Sensitivity/ Adaptive capacity = W1H (CI1) + W2S (CI2) +W3P (CI3) +W4N (CI4) +W5F (CI5) H: Human Asset, S= Social Asset, P=Physical Asset, N=Natural Asset, F= Financial AssetW1-W5 = Weighting factorCI1-CI5 = Compound Index by capital The 150 producing families interviewed were selected according to their exposure to climate change regarding coffee and 30 most important crops and the poverty index ( Ref).InterpretationCoffee growing municipalities in Nicaragua have distinct sensitivity and adaptive capacity (graph). In general the families show high sensitivity in their fiscal assets regarding the quality of post-harvest infrastructure, in their financial assets regarding the variability in coffee production and dependency on coffee and in their human assets regarding migration. They show low adaptive capacity regarding their post harvest facilities, if it is raining they cant process their cherries and have to sell them without further processing, regarding the knowledge on pest and disease management during uncommon weather events and regarding their financial assets they show poor access to new technologies and poorly developed market linkages.
See previous mapWhat does this map add? Local scale variability?Previous slides were general for Nicaragua this the vulnerability profile for a specific municipality including the strategies developed in community workshops.
See previous mapWhat does this map add? Local scale variability?See previous slide.

CIAT and IPNI at the 23rd ASIC conference Presentation Transcript

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