Ciat 2010 taller coop_caficultoras certificiaciones_mercados_y_cambio_climatico

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Presentación por el Dr. Carlos Zelaya sobre el Impacto del cambio climático en los sistemas de café de Mesoamérica en el Taller regional “Cooperativas caficultoras: Certificaciones, Mercados y cambio climático”
 ¿Qué potencialidades y perspectivas para enfrentar los riesgos de mercado y del Cambio Climático?, Costa Rica, Octubre 2010.

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  • How many growers in Peru and Kenya? - Peru was still within the AdapCC project we only worked with coordinates (200 coordinates) not farmers Kenya is a new PPP project where did analysis for/ =>In both cases we only did the Exposure analysis What exactly is the role of GMCR, GTZ, CRS, Cropster? GMCR: Donor, they are interested in the results and invite all the grantees up to Vermont once a year. We do workshops with their suppliers (Sustainable Harvest) to sensitize chain actors. CRS works in the Coffee Livelhoods project with 7000 farmers in the 4 countries, the CUP project is linked to the Coffee Livelihoods project in order to use their data. Perfect R4D project. GTZ: Different projects where we applied the same exposure methodology. Cropster: Same function as in DAPA, all the data of the Cafe Livelihoods project is channeled through cropster, we extract the data and do the science. Is GMCR working with CRS? CRS is implementing several mesesflacos projects for GMCR Please provide some details. The nature of the alliance I think this is a very important process and design aspect that I would like to highlight. It is a perfect R4D project. CRS implements a development project and we do the research to guide their second phase. The project has multiple benefits of cropster also (traceability, quality control, marketing) in addition to the science we can provide through cropster (extract data and feed back information regarding adaptation strategies.
  • Can you change the color to dark green?
  • Here we have to say that part of methodology had also been implemented in Peru and Kenya
  • Peter, please indicate where the data came from? See below and paper 150 farms I understand. But where? Who did the work / interviews? CIAT See summary of the methodology: Sensitivity and adaptive capacity Livelihoods are characterized by the assets that comprise the resources needed to create new resources, DFID has identified the five most important assets for smallholder farmers (1999). They comprise the human, social, financial, natural and physical asst. We identified 18 relevant indicators through workshops with farmers, expert consultation and literature review (Table 1).   Table 1: Eighteen identified indicators with number of question in parenthesis across five assets. Human Asset Social Asset Physical Asset - Access to formal and informal education (11)‏ - Level of knowledge of farming system management (8)‏ - Health and feeding (4)‏ - Organization (6)‏ - Take decisions / work distribution (2)‏   - Access routes (3)‏ - Transport of products (2)‏ - Quality of accommodation (3)‏   Natural Asset Financial Asset - Access and availability of water (7)‏ - Contamination (6)‏ - Conservation (4)‏ - Soil conditions and fertility (6)‏   - Credit access (6)‏ - Variability of production (2)‏ - Price variability (1)‏ - Variability in annual revenue and income diversification (3)‏ - Access to markets (4)‏ - Access to alternative technology (2)‏   Each indicator consists several questions, which are divided in different categories. For example a question of the indicator access and availability of water is “What is the quality of your drinkable water?” and the possible answers cover the categories from low to high sensitivity very bad quality to very good quality. The questions of each indicator are being averaged in a Compound index CI and weighted by a group of experts (W). Equation 2 summarises the approach.     Sensitivity/ Adaptive capacity = W1H (CI1) + W2S (CI2) +W3P (CI3) +W4N (CI4) +W5F (CI5)     H: Human Asset, S= Social Asset, P=Physical Asset, N=Natural Asset, F= Financial Asset W1-W5 = Weighting factor CI1-CI5 = Compound Index by capital   The 150 producing families interviewed were selected according to their exposure to climate change regarding coffee and 30 most important crops and the poverty index ( Ref).
  • How is suitability been defined? The probability that coffee grows well. Suitability here is probability of being less suitable? It is the future suitability minus the current suitability. Negative area loose in suitability and positive gain in suitability. This is Maxent, correct? Yes
  • Are the values in the table for the whole country or for the 5000 farm points? It is Coffee livelihoods data and: All the current coffee-growing areas in Nicaragua were mapped by Valerio-Hernádez (2002) using aerial and satellite imagery. The map shows that the coffee-producing areas range from altitudes of 100 masl to 2000 masl. According to experts of CAFENICA, the principal regions that produce Coffeaarabica lie between 500 and 1400 masl. Below 500 masl growers usually produce Coffearobusta and there are few coffee farms above 1400 masl. We extracted the geographical coordinates of coffee farms in the 3155 polygons that represent the Nicaraguan coffee zone, at 30 arc-second spatial resolution (approximately 1km). We obtained a total of 6192 coordinates, of which 1129 were for farms below 500 masl and 144 for farms above 1400 masl. To avoid the introduction of noise due to Coffearobusta species or farms whose altitudes were not representative, we only used sites in the range 500 - 1400 masl, a total of 4919 coordinates.
  • Maxent? Yes Suitability as before? Correct Is this suitability an average from all the 16 downscaled model inputs? Yes, CV is of crude data input in Maxent and Measure of agreement of Maxent output. We did run the Maxent 16 times. Or derived from input of one specific model to Maxent? 16 times
  • Can you please take area per altitude line out? This is very important is shows that there is no more area available further up and that coffee will compete even more with protected areas. PES discussion. If you cannot, explain to what does it pertain: current or 2050? It simply shows the area available at each altitude current and future. Just area per altitude.
  • -What are these municipalities? All the coffee growing areas in Nica or just part of them? Yes
  • Price: 2050 US$ / t Price/Volume We have the data from: http://www.magfor.gob.ni/estadisticas/descargas/estadi_anual/cafe02.pdf It is 90.000 in stead of 9.000
  • Suitability change for the 30 most important crops in Nicaragua (FAOSTAT, 2010) versus importance of crops. Bubble size represents total annual production per crop (%). Grey circles represent staple and white circles cash crops. Area loosing suitability (%)
  • Explanation is needed as to what we see here. This is the summary of the livelihoods analysis for the entire country. Change to same format at previous graphs and text. Has been done
  • Explain Sensitivity and Capacity to adapt Explain how both have been defined Methodology: Is same data as in spider graph but mapped. Livelihoods are characterized by the assets that comprise the resources needed to create new resources, DFID has identified the five most important assets for smallholder farmers (1999). They comprise the human, social, financial, natural and physical asst. We identified 18 relevant indicators through workshops with farmers, expert consultation and literature review (Table 1).   Table 1: Eighteen identified indicators with number of question in parenthesis across five assets. Human Asset Social Asset Physical Asset - Access to formal and informal education (11)‏ - Level of knowledge of farming system management (8)‏ - Health and feeding (4)‏ - Organization (6)‏ - Take decisions / work distribution (2)‏   - Access routes (3)‏ - Transport of products (2)‏ - Quality of accommodation (3)‏   Natural Asset Financial Asset - Access and availability of water (7)‏ - Contamination (6)‏ - Conservation (4)‏ - Soil conditions and fertility (6)‏   - Credit access (6)‏ - Variability of production (2)‏ - Price variability (1)‏ - Variability in annual revenue and income diversification (3)‏ - Access to markets (4)‏ - Access to alternative technology (2)‏   Each indicator consists several questions, which are divided in different categories. For example a question of the indicator access and availability of water is “What is the quality of your drinkable water?” and the possible answers cover the categories from low to high sensitivity very bad quality to very good quality. The questions of each indicator are being averaged in a Compound index CI and weighted by a group of experts (W). Equation 2 summarises the approach.     Sensitivity/ Adaptive capacity = W1H (CI1) + W2S (CI2) +W3P (CI3) +W4N (CI4) +W5F (CI5)     H: Human Asset, S= Social Asset, P=Physical Asset, N=Natural Asset, F= Financial Asset W1-W5 = Weighting factor CI1-CI5 = Compound Index by capital   The 150 producing families interviewed were selected according to their exposure to climate change regarding coffee and 30 most important crops and the poverty index ( Ref). Interpretation Coffee growing municipalities in Nicaragua have distinct sensitivity and adaptive capacity (graph). In general the families show high sensitivity in their fiscal assets regarding the quality of post-harvest infrastructure, in their financial assets regarding the variability in coffee production and dependency on coffee and in their human assets regarding migration. They show low adaptive capacity regarding their post harvest facilities, if it is raining they cant process their cherries and have to sell them without further processing, regarding the knowledge on pest and disease management during uncommon weather events and regarding their financial assets they show poor access to new technologies and poorly developed market linkages.  
  • See previous map What does this map add? Local scale variability? Previous slides were general for Nicaragua this the vulnerability profile for a specific municipality including the strategies developed in community workshops.
  • See previous map What does this map add? Local scale variability? See previous slide.
  • Ciat 2010 taller coop_caficultoras certificiaciones_mercados_y_cambio_climatico

    1. 1. Impacto del cambio climático en los sistemas de café de Mesoamérica P Läderach, O Ovalle, A Eitzinger, M Baca Presentado por Carlos Zelaya Taller regional “Cooperativas caficultoras: Certificaciones, Mercados y cambio climático”   ¿Qué potencialidades y perspectivas para enfrentar los riesgos de mercado y del Cambio Climático? , Costa Rica, Octubre 2010
    2. 2. <ul><li>Esquema </li></ul><ul><li>Metodología </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Datos climáticos </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adaptabilidad de Cultivos </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Resultados </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exposición </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sensibilidad </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Capacidad de adaptación </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conclusiones </li></ul>Contenido
    3. 3. &quot;El clima se ha convertido en impredecible, ahora llueve menos y muy irregular, mi rendimiento ha disminuido y tengo más problemas de plagas y enfermedades.&quot; Don Pedro, Nicaragua, Madriz, Enero, 2010 Esquema Percepciones
    4. 4. Percepciones Esquema
    5. 5. <ul><li>Objetivo </li></ul><ul><li>Predecir el impacto del cambio climático en la producción de café y los medios de vida de los agricultores y desarrollar estrategias de adaptación en la cadena completa </li></ul><ul><li>Los beneficiarios (7.000 agricultores) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mexico (GMCR)‏ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>El Salvador (GMCR)‏ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Guatemala (GMCR)‏ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nicaragua (GMCR)‏ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Método aplicado parcialmente </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Peru (AdapCC, GTZ)‏ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Kenya (AdapCC, GTZ )‏ </li></ul></ul>Esquema Coffee Under Pressure (CUP) Project
    6. 6. Esquema La vulnerabilidad al cambio climático (IPCC 2001)‏ Vulnerabilidad Grado de susceptibilidad y la incapacidad de un sistema para hacer frente a los efectos adversos del cambio climático (IPCC 2001)‏ Exposición Grado en que un sistema es expuestos a variaciones significativas en el clima Sensibilidad Grado en que un sistema es positiva o negativamente afectado por estímulos relacionados con el clima La capacidad de adaptación La capacidad de un sistema de adaptación al cambio climático
    7. 7. Metodología Enfoque global Modelo Climático Global (GCM) Resultados Producción y Calidad de los datos Información Socio Económica Estadísticos Reducción de escala de information Climatica Adaptabilidad de cultivos y modelos de nicho Análisis de Vulnerabilidad Climas Futuros a escala local Impactos en el Rendimiento y la Calidad Estrategias alternativas de los medios de vida EXPOSICIÓN Insumos Procesos Productos CAPACIDAD ADAPTATIVA SENSIBILIDAD
    8. 8. Metodología DFID Esquema de los medios de subsistencia, indicadores sobre los 5 capitales Humano <ul><li>Acceso a la educación formal e informal </li></ul><ul><li>Nivel de conocimiento del sistema de manejo de fincas. </li></ul><ul><li>Salud y alimentación </li></ul>Social <ul><li>Organización </li></ul><ul><li>Toma de decisiones / distribución de Trabajo </li></ul><ul><li>Vías de acceso </li></ul><ul><li>Transporte de productos </li></ul><ul><li>Calidad de la Vivienda </li></ul>Físico Natural <ul><li>Acceso y disponibilidad de agua </li></ul><ul><li>Contaminación </li></ul><ul><li>Conservación </li></ul><ul><li>Condiciones del suelo y la fertilidad </li></ul>Financiero <ul><li>Acceso al crédito </li></ul><ul><li>Variabilidad de la producción </li></ul><ul><li>Variabilidad de Precios </li></ul><ul><li>Variabilidad de los ingresos anuales y diversificación </li></ul><ul><li>Acceso a mercados </li></ul><ul><li>Acceso a tecnología alternativa </li></ul>Ver presentación A130 de Celi et al.
    9. 9. Resultados Los resultados preliminares Exposición
    10. 10. Resultados Cambio promedio en la adaptabilidad del café en 2050
    11. 11. Resultados Cambio climático promedio en las zonas de café en Nicaragua Fincas de café de Nicaragua (~5.000)‏ 2020 2050 Variación de la temperatura media anual + 1,1 °C + 2,4 °C Variación de las precipitación anual - 90 mm - 120 mm
    12. 12. Resultados Cambio en la adaptabilidad de café para el año 2050 en Nicaragua
    13. 13. Resultados Desplazamiento altitudinal de zonas de producción en Nicaragua
    14. 14. Resultados Impacto previsto de producción en Nicaragua Departamento Area actual (ha) 2050 area (ha) Cambio (ha)‏ Cambio (%)‏ Matagalpa 41,400 6,000 -35,400 85 Jinotega 34,500 8,700 -25,800 75 Granada 2,000 1,300 -800 37 … … … … …   Total 114,600 16,700 -98,200 85
    15. 15. Resultados Predicción de impacto económico en Nicaragua Departamento Producción (1000 t)‏ Ingresos ( Millones US$)‏ Producción 2050 (1000 t)‏ Ingresos 2050 (Million $US)‏ Pérdida (Milliones US$)‏ Matagalpa 21.1 31.792 4.4 6.657 25.135 Jinotega 27.8 41.769 6.4 9.567 32.203 Granada 0.2 0.249 0.1 0.173 0.075 … … … … … … Total 60.9 90.148 11.2 16.703 74.775
    16. 16. <ul><li>Cambio de adaptabilidad de la mayoría de cultivos importantes versus la areas aptas y que pierden (%). </li></ul>Cambio de Adaptabilidad en Nicaragua para 30 cultivos versus la proporción de área apta actual que probablemente perderá adaptabilidad, el tamaño del circulo es la producción anual total (%). Círculos grises son los cultivos de alimentos básicos y círculos blancos son áreas de cultivos no alimentarios Resultados Adaptabilidad y el área de cambio para otros cultivos en Nicaragua
    17. 17. Resultados Avances Preliminares Exposición, Sensibilidad, Capacidad de adaptación
    18. 18. Resultados Impactos de medios de vida generales en Nicaragua Rendimientos altamente variables Dependencia de café Manejo postcosecha Plagas y enfermedades Migración
    19. 19. Resultados Perfiles específicos de vulnerabilidad de agricultores en Nicaragua
    20. 20. Resultados Madriz se caracteriza por una baja exposición (café seguirá creciendo en 2050), de alta sensibilidad (carreteras en mal estado, una alta variabilidad en el rendimiento) y baja capacidad de adaptación (estructura organizativa pobre, pocos beneficios proporcionados por la organización y la alta contaminación de los recursos naturales). El énfasis de su estrategia de adaptación es relativa a la conservación de los recursos naturales, la creación de capacidades, la diversificación y la sensibilización de los gobiernos Perfiles específicos de vulnerabilidad de agricultores en Nicaragua
    21. 21. Resultados Matagalpa se caracteriza por una alta exposición (la adaptabilidad de café disminuye drásticamente) de alta sensibilidad (alta variabilidad en los rendimientos) y baja capacidad de adaptación (falta de acceso al crédito, escaso conocimiento sobre manejo de plagas y enfermedades y la baja diversificación). La estrategia de adaptación se centra en la diversificación, la creación de capacidades, el fortalecimiento de las organizaciones y en la aplicación de las leyes ambientales y las políticas de desarrollo para el sector del café. Perfiles específicos de vulnerabilidad de agricultores en Nicaragua
    22. 22. Los colores muestran: Precipitación promedio anual Cruz Alejandro Gomez La Maravilla | ID: NIC_024 Matagalpa, Nicaragua Factores ambientales: Precipitación promedio anual: 1.900mm
    23. 23. Los colores muestran: Cambio de la Adaptabilidad (%) para el año 2050 Cruz Alejandro Gomez La Maravilla | ID: NIC_024 Matagalpa, Nicaragua Factores ambientales: Cambio Adaptabilidad año 2050: -37%
    24. 24. Los colores muestran: Cambio de la Adaptabilidad (%) para el año 2050 <ul><li>Cruz Alejandro Gomez </li></ul><ul><li>La Maravilla | ID: NIC_024 </li></ul><ul><li>Matagalpa, Nicaragua </li></ul><ul><li>Factores ambientales: </li></ul><ul><li>Cambio Adaptabilidad año 2050: </li></ul><ul><li>-37% </li></ul><ul><li>Cultivos alternativos (Adaptabilidad) : </li></ul><ul><li>Cacao 70% </li></ul><ul><li>Frijol 56% </li></ul><ul><li>Papa 34% </li></ul>
    25. 25. Conclusiones <ul><li>El consenso de los diversos GCM y climas futuros detallados implica que la amenaza es real, para el café más que para otros cultivos </li></ul><ul><li>La variabilidad en la vulnerabilidad requiere un proceso sólido para determiner impactos específicos </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptacion necesita de una cartera de opciones sobre la base de estrategias existentes de gestión de riesgos </li></ul><ul><li>Actualización de la cartera es probable que incluya: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>producto (es decir, la calidad más alta, la calidad simbólica), </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>proceso (es decir, nuevos materiales genéticos), </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>canal (abasteciendo diferentes segmentos del mercado), y </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Incremento intersectorial (por ejemplo, las estrategias basadas en los diferentes cultivos o servicios de los ecosistemas)‏ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Complejidad requiere de alianzas innovadoras entre los sectores público y privado </li></ul>
    26. 26. Peter Läderach (CIAT)‏ [email_address] Carlos Zelaya (CIAT) [email_address] ¡Gracias! Impacto del cambio climático en los sistemas de café de Mesoamérica

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