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CCAFS meeting Hanoi


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  • (C) Trends map depicting patterns of change vegetation. (D) Preliminary spatial pattern map of land cover on day 81 2009.
  • Transcript

    • 1. Overview of climate variability and likely climate change impacts on agriculture across the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) Eitzinger Anton, Giang Linh, Lefroy Rod, Carmona Stephania, Laderach Peter
    • 2. Project milestones • Assemble database and quantify impact on crop suitability December 2013 • Engage with partners and share methods and first results March 2014 • Incorporate feedback, rerun analysis and finalize results May 2014
    • 3. Data collection
    • 4. Climate grids are constructed for nine climate variables for the period 1901-2009 - Temperature, - Diurnal temperature range, - Daily minimum temperature, - Maximum temperatures, - Precipitation, - Wet-day frequency, - Frost-day frequency, - Vapor pressure, and - Cloud cover. CRU TS climate database 3.10.01
    • 5. CRU TS climate database 3.10.01 Tmean + 1.8 ˚C to 2 ˚C Tmax +1.7˚C to 2.2˚C Tmin + 1.6˚C to 2.2˚C No clear rainfall change pattern …Temperature increased between 1901 to 2009 ?
    • 6. Worldclim stations worldwide 47,554 precipitation 24,542 tmean 14,835 tmax y tmin Sources: •GHCN •FAOCLIM •WMO •CIAT •R-Hydronet •Redes nacionales Sources: •GHCN •FAOCLIM •WMO •CIAT •R-Hydronet •Redes nacionales Climate baseline
    • 7. Temperature Annual mean temperature, Mean diurnal range, seasonality, Max of warmest month, Min of coldest month, Annual Range, Mean of Wettest/Driest Quarter, Mean of Warmest/Coldest Quarter Rainfall Annual, Rainfall of Wettest/Driest Month, Seasonality, Rainfall of Wettest/Driest/Warmest/Coldest Quarter * current annual mean temperature, current annual rainfall
    • 8. Not available = natural (forest, wetland, …), protected, water, bare, urban areas LU Change risk = land mixed with pastoralism (forest, herbaceous, wetlands, …) Available = Agriculture (commercial, subsidized, irrigated, …) Land use change at risk for agriculture
    • 9. Land use change • Vegetation Index (MOD13Q1 MODIS Product , 16 days, 250m) Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) … the values are closely related to​​ vegetation type and climatic conditions as well as the predominant land use pattern. Data noise filtering
    • 10. Crop-Climate-Suitability modeling using Ecocrop
    • 11. Crop climate- suitability change by 2050 s of D:_modeling_OUTPUTsearun-1.gdbbanana2chg in zones of D:Anton_DAPA_Projects_ongoingSEA-CCAFSgeodatagms_mask.shp KHM 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 LAO MMR THA VNM CHN Histograms of D:_modeling_OUTPUTsearun-1.gdbpotato2chg in zones of D:Anton_DAPA_Projects_ongoingSEA-CCA KHM 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 LAO MMR THA VNM CHN Histogram: Banana Potato Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam China Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam China
    • 12. 2 step analysis Compare predicted future suitability change from climate models and Ecocrop maps and existing land use data A time-series analysis of Land Use change using satellite images to identify change patterns in land use 1 2
    • 13. 1
    • 14. 1 risk for land use change
    • 15. 2006 20122000 2
    • 16. Expansion of of Maize, Sayabouri What can be detected? 2
    • 17. Engage with partners and share methods and first results
    • 18. Validation of Ecocrop results • Groupwork and Discussion on suitability maps Actual production area This area is not suitable Temperature suit. Rainfall suit.Climate-suitability Crop x
    • 19. • Share & discuss methods of climate change impact assessment with partners • Training on EcoCrop modeling using DIVA-GIS
    • 20. Presentations & Discussion 1. What is the evidence and observed changes in the climate system and how reliable are climate models and scenarios? 2. How to use climate models & future predictions for Agriculture and modeling? 3. How can we adapt agriculture systems to unknown future conditions?
    • 21. Overview of climate variability and likely climate change impacts on agriculture across the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) Project team: Peter Laderach, Rod Lefroy, Aparna Mani, Linh Giang, Stephania Carmona, Anton Eitzinger Thank you