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Cambio climatico y bananas en America Latina
 

Cambio climatico y bananas en America Latina

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Presentation made at the 1st Latin American Congress on Banana and Plantain, held in piura, Peru 22nd - 24th 2011.

Presentation made at the 1st Latin American Congress on Banana and Plantain, held in piura, Peru 22nd - 24th 2011.

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  • For Lobell map: Values show the linear trend in temperature for the main crop grown in that grid cell, and for the months in which that crop is grown. Values indicate the trend in terms of multiples of the standard deviation of historical year-to-year variation. ** A 1˚C rise tended to lower yields by up to 10% except in high latitude countries, where in particular rice gains from warming. ** In India, warming may explain the recently slowing of yield gains. For yield graph: Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields for major producers and for global production. Values are expressed as percent of average yield. Gray bars show median estimate and error bars show 5-95% confidence interval from bootstrap resampling with 500 replicates. Red and blue dots show median estimate of impact for T trend and P trend, respectively. ** At the global scale, maize and wheat exhibited negative impacts for several major producers and global net loss of 3.8% and 5.5% relative to what would have been achieved without the climate trends in 1980-2008. In absolute terms, these equal the annual production of maize in Mexico (23 MT) and wheat in France (33 MT), respectively. Source: Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980 David B. Lobell 1 , , Wolfram Schlenker 2 , 3 , and Justin Costa-Roberts 1 Science magazine
  • Why focus on Food security And climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets 60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
  • What we need - mythic solution sequester carbon, reduce soil loss, stop slash and burn, reduce emissions - food security, stop pollution etc.
  • How are we going to estimate the effects of climate change on agriculture unless we’re going to wait for it to happen? Past changes are not really a good estimator. The little ice age starting in 1450 or thereabouts was a major event, completely changing the life styles and agriculture in Europe. It is piddling compared with what we are likely to see in the next 20 to 50 years. We must therefore rely on modeling situations that we have never before seen.
  • ANIMATED SLIDE. Example of systemic adjustments vs. structural adaptation with the coffee supply chain. Shading is one example of an adjustment, whereas larger scale, transformational, “structural adaptation” requires larger changes, which in this case can occur via certifications of climate-proofed coffee (C4 label). This creates an incentive for retailers and federations to invest in more sustainable coffee production (e.g., organic) and more resilient inputs (e.g., certain varietals). The result is adaptive change all along the supply chain.
  • ANIMATED SLIDE.

Cambio climatico y bananas en America Latina Cambio climatico y bananas en America Latina Presentation Transcript

  • Impactos e implicaciones del cambio climático para la banana en Latinoamérica y el Caribe Julian Ramirez y Andy Jarvis Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical, CIAT
  • Contenido
    • Cambio climático: El reto
    • Modelos: como saber que pasará?
    • Incertidumbre: entonces sabemos o no?
    • Cómo evaluar el impacto?
    • Números para el sector bananero
    • Impacto sobre la adaptabilidad
    • Impacto sobre las áreas productoras actuales
    • Impacto sobre Sigatoka negra
    • Qué necesita el sector?
    • Conclusiones
  • El Reto
  • Concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero Implicaciones a largo plazo en el clima, y aptitud climática para producir cultivos
  • Historical impacts on food security % Yield impact for wheat Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008. Lobell et al (2011)
  • Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050 Crop suitability is changing
    • In order to meet global demands, we will need
    • 60-70%
    • more food
    • by 2050.
    Seguridad alimentario en riesgo
  • “ Unchecked climate change will result in a 20% increase in malnourished children by 2050 ,” relative to the full mitigation scenario. -Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS
  • Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
  • Cambio climático: por qué? dónde? cuándo ?
    • Cuándo empezará a cambiar el clima?
    … en realidad ya comenzó
  • Cambio climático: por qué? dónde ? cuándo?
  • Modelos: Cómo saber qué pasará?
  • Modelos GCM : “Global Climate Models”
    • 21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basados en ciencias atmosféricas , química, física, biología
    • Se corre desde el pasado hasta el futuro
    • Hay diferentes escenarios de emisiones de gases
    INCERTIDUMBRE POLITICO (EMISIONES), Y INCERTIDUMBRE CIENTIFICO (MODELOS)
  • Incertidumbre: entonces sabemos o no?
  •  
  • Entonces, ¿qué es lo que dicen?
  • Variabilidad y linea base + Climate Timescale Short ( change in baseline and variability ) Long Baseline _
  •  
  •  
  • BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2 CCCMA-CGCM3.1 T47 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-HIRES MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3
    • La incertidumbre cientifico SI es relevante para la agricultura: tenemos que tomar decisiones dentro de un contexto de incertidumbre
    Mensaje 1
  • Algunos numeros para el sector bananero
  • Numeros para el sector bananero
    • Cambios en campos bananeros a nivel mundial a 2050 (A2) entre:
      • 257mm (Pakistan) y -186mm (Trinidad y Tobago)
      • 3.3 ºC (Algeria) y 1.5 ºC (Vanuatu)
      • 1 mes seco menos en 12.3% de los países productores
      • 1 mes seco más en 24.7% de los países productores
      • Hasta 50% de incertidumbre
  • Numeros para el sector bananero
  • Numeros para el sector bananero
  • Ejemplo: Cambios esperados para Piura
    • Future values are averages of 20 GCMs under the SRES-A2 emissions scenario
  • Impactos esperados sobre la producción bananera
  • Cómo evaluar el impacto? Clima actual Clima futuro Clave en investigación Cultivo actual Rendimiento, presión de plagas, enfermedades, etc Relación Cultivo futuro Rendimiento, presión de plagas, enfermedades, etc Proyección
  • Adaptabilidad del cultivo
    • Cómo funciona el modelo?
    It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… … and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
  • Adaptabilidad del cultivo
    • Parámetros de crecimiento y potencial actual
  • Impactos del cambio climatico sobre adaptabilidad del cultivo
    • Impedimentos climáticos para cultivar banano
    La mayoría de las zonas actualmente aptas podrían estar limitadas por temperatura Qué pasaría si hay un aumento de 2-3 ºC?
  • Impactos del cambio climático sobre adaptabilidad del cultivo
  • Como siempre… la incertidumbre Acuerdo entre modelos Coeficiente de variación
  • Impactos sobre areas productoras actuales Banano Considerando expansión agrícola Costa Rica Latinoamérica Latinoamérica Costa Rica
  • Impactos sobre áreas productoras actuales -2050
  • Impactos sobre areas productoras actuales
    • 72% de las áreas bananeras están abajo de 500m.
    Banano
  • Impactos sobre Sigatoka negra
  • Impactos sobre Sigatoka negra
  • Regresiones multivariadas ( stepwise ) con bootstrapping
    • Hoja mas joven infectada
  • Input Providers Consumer Other Crops Structural Adaptation Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers have adapted their production system to a changing climate. Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4 -certified “climate-proofed” coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure. Adaptive Adjustments Action: a) Shading b) Changing varietals c) Changing inputs Result: Improved risk management at the farm level, allowing for long-term adaption. Wholesale/Retail C4 Coffee Federation Coffee Producers a) Shading
  • Coffee Producers Transformational Adaptation Action: Migrate to keep farming Change farming systems (agricultural) Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural) Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs.
  • Qué necesita el sector? INVESTIGACION Y DESARROLLO TECNOLOGICO POLITICAS PUBLICOS Y PRIVADOS
    • CREAR UNA AGRICULTURA ECO-EFFICIENTE: CONSTRUIR SISTEMAS AMBIENTALMENTE SOSTENIBLES Y EQUITATIVOS
    • MONITOREO DE PRODUCCIÓN Y DE PLAGAS Y ENFERMEDADES
    • EVALUACIÓN DE IMPACTO SECTORIAL, EVALUACIÓN DE ESTRATEGIAS DE ADAPTACIÓN:
      • MANEJO AGRONOMICO, PLAGAS, ENFERMEDADES
      • SUSTITUCION VARIETAL
      • SISTEMAS DE RIEGO
      • MIGRACION?
    • ENSAYOS PARA CUANTIFICAR PLASTICIDAD DE CULTIVARES ACTUALES
    • MANEJAR LA INCERTIDUMBRE… DECIDIR EN BASE A ELLA
  • Conclusiones
    • Evaluar impactos… 2020 es un limite cercano, 2050 es critico
    • Las decisiones deben ir pensando desde ya : migración, manejo, cambio varietal, infraestructura
    • Impactos economicos del cambio climatico
      • Costos de no-adaptacion o mal-adaptacion
      • Costos de adaptacion
    • Cuidado con la mal-adaptacion… escoger métodos de evaluación apropiados
    • Mejoramiento de cultivos, conservación de recursos genéticos
  • Gracias!!! Contacto: a. [email_address]