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Are Protected Areas Enough To Conserve Terrestrial Biodiversity Teldap Taiwan March 2010
 

Are Protected Areas Enough To Conserve Terrestrial Biodiversity Teldap Taiwan March 2010

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Presentation made at the TELDAP International Conference in Taiwan, 2nd march 2010. Addresses issues of climate change on biodiversity distribution, and means of adatpation in the case of ...

Presentation made at the TELDAP International Conference in Taiwan, 2nd march 2010. Addresses issues of climate change on biodiversity distribution, and means of adatpation in the case of agrobiodiversity.

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    Are Protected Areas Enough To Conserve Terrestrial Biodiversity Teldap Taiwan March 2010 Are Protected Areas Enough To Conserve Terrestrial Biodiversity Teldap Taiwan March 2010 Presentation Transcript

    • Are protected areas enough to conserve terrestrial biodiversity in a 2050 climate?
      Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Luigi Guarino, Reymondin, Hector Tobón, Daniel Amariles
    • Contents
      The boring bit – data quality
      The fun bit – modelling
      Our current coverage of protected areas – pretty good!
      The bad news – the future
      The case of Taiwan
      What to do? An example in agrobiodiversity
      The next steps
    • The Main Messages
      The availability of biodiversity data is absolutely necessary to be able to PLAN conservation now and into the future
      Data should be shared nationally for developing national plans, but also internationally for designing international policy
      Especially in the case of climate change: species move around, and they do NOT respect national borders, nor do they need visas!
    • The Wallace Initiative framework:
      Assessment of impacts of climate change on species distributions to:
      Determine refugia
      Improve knowledge of risks of exceeding certain levels of change by means of determining extinction rates
      Map potential corridors for species
      Potential refugia, carbon dist., and design of REDD mechanisms
      Driving of protected area design in the 21st century
      Provide insights to aid the development of adaptation plans
    • The Boring Bit – Data Quality
    • The GBIF database: status of the data
      The database holds 177,887,193 occurrences
      Plantae occurrences are 44,706,505 (25,13%)
      33,340,000 (74.5%) have coordinates
      How many of them are correct, and reliable?
      How many new georreferences could we get?
      CURRENT STATUS OF
      THE Plantae RECORDS
    • Taxonomy: Plantae, Country: Taiwan
    • The GBIF database: status of the data
      How to make the data reliable enough?
      Verify coordinates at different levels
      Are the records where they say they are?
      Are the records inside land areas (for terrestrial plant species only)
      Are all the records within the environmental niche of the taxon?
      Sea records: not verifiable
      Correct wrong references
      Add references to those that do not have
      Cross-check with curators and feedback the database
    • The GBIF database: status of the data
      How to make that possible?
      Java-based scripts
      Spatial datasets: environmental descriptors, administrative boundaries, high resolution land area mask
      Some processing power
      Enough storage
      And… most important: Java geeks!
    • Using a random sample of 950.000 occurrences with coordinates
    • Are the records where they say they are?: country-level verification
      Records with null country: 58.051  6,11% of total
      Records with incorrect country: 6.918  0,72% of total
      Total excluded by country 64.969  6,83% of total
      Records mostly located
      in country boundaries
      Inaccuracies in
      coordinates
      What on earth is this?
      • Are the terrestrial plant species in land?: Coastal verification
      Records in the ocean: 9.866  1,03% of total
      Records near land (range 5km): 34.347  3,61% of total
      Records outside of mask: 369  0,04% of total
      Total excluded by mask 44.582  4.69% of total
      Errors, and more errors
    • Not so bad at all… stats
      44’706.505 plant records
      33’340.008 (74,57%) with coordinates
      From those
      88.5% are geographically correct at two levels
      6.8% have null or incorrect country (incl. sea plant species)
      4.7% are near the coasts but not in-land
      Summary of errors or misrepresented data
    • RESULTING DATABASE
      TOTAL EVALUATED RECORDS: 950.000
      Good records: 840.449  88.47% of total
    • Next steps
      It now takes 27 minutes to verify 950,000 records, 177million would be 83 hours (3 ½ days)
      Identify terrestrial plant species and separate them from sea species
      Use a georreferencing algorithm to:
      Correct wrong references
      Incorporate new location data to those with NULLlat,lon
      Interpret 2nd & 3rd-level administrative boundaries and use them too
      Implement environmental cross-checking (outliers)
    • So what do we face in terms of biodiversity distribution in 2050?
    • The current situation
      Covering 13.8% of the total global surface (3.8% international, 10% national)
    • Results: protected areas per region
      Global biodiversity currently well conserved
      Current extent of in situ conservation
    • The data: current and future climates
      Current climates from WorldClim
      19 bioclimatic indices at 10 arc-minutes
      Future climates from downscaled GCM outputs
      18 models at 10 arc-minutes spatial resolution
      For 2050s
      Under the A2a emission scenario
      19 bioclimatic variables as for WorldClim
      Control run with the average climate of all GCMs
    • The approach
      Maximum entropy as a very accurate algorithm for niche modeling
      10 or more points for each of the 33,004 taxa
      Current: two extreme migration scenarios
      Unlimited migration (maximum adaptation)
      Null migration (no adaptation)
      Measures of diversity and area loss
      Per region and globally
      Within Protected Areas
      Overall
    • Modeling approach
      Potential
      habitat
      expansion
      Aplying the maximum entropy algorithm
      Macoubea guianensis Aubl.: food for rural indigenous communities in the Amazon
      Data harvesting from GBIF
      Building the presence model
      Projecting on future climates
      UNLIMITED
      MIGRATION
      NULL MIGRATION
    • CURRENT
      Results: Current and future predicted species richness
      Important hotspots in Latin America, Europe, Australasia and Central Africa
      Displacement and loss of niches
      UNLIMITED MIGRATION
      NULL MIGRATION
    • Results: changes in species richness
      Null migration: losses everywhere
      Unlimited migration: mostly displacement
    • UNLIMITED MIGRATION
      Results: changes in species richness
      Null migration: losses everywhere
      Unlimited migration: mostly displacement
      NULL MIGRATION
    • Results: changes within regions
      Changes in species richness under both migration scenarios
    • Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC
      Expected changes within protected areas (PAs) sometimes occur at a greater extent than non-protected areas
      NULL MIGRATION
      UNLIMITED MIGRATION
      Our protected areas not prepared to conserve biodiversity in 2050
    • Nature conservation in the Amazon
      Climate-stable refugia: Restoration
      Climate-stable refugia: Protected areas
    • Planeandoestrategias de adaptacion
      No future for biodiversity: Production
      Corridors through agriculture to enable movement of biodiversity
    • Plant diversity distribution
      Most diverse areas concentrated in southeastern and central Taiwan
      Western coast to be less important in terms of richness per se… but what about uniqueness?
    • Expected richness by 2050s (A2)
      NO ADAPTATION
      FULL ADAPTATION
      Western coast patch with low
      Diversity… to be expanded
      Central Taiwan to be affected even
      considering full adaptation…
    • Expected relative changes by 2050s (A2)
      NO ADAPTATION
      FULL ADAPTATION
      RED areas are critical as will have significant losses even with Full Adaptation
      Maximum loss of 27%... Not so high though… GREEN areas for conservation
    • In situ conclusions
      Protected areas function today, at least on paper
      Under a changed climate however, they do not effectively conserve biodiversity, even assuming maximum adaptation
      In situ conservation needs to be oriented under the context of climate change
      Areas to be strengthened (more control)
      Areas to be expanded
      Areas to be re-located (if migration does occur)
      Enabling migration is critical: corridors of protected areas
      Redesigned functional landscapes also essential: Eco-efficient agriculture
    • When each of the specimens die?
      How much does each specimen need to move to survive?
      Modelling migration
    • Pathways to adaptation in agrobiodiversity
    • The solution and the problem
      Wild relative species
      A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions
      A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions
      A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions
      Florunner, with no root-knot nematode resistance
      COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner
    • Impact of Climate Change – Wild Peanuts
    • Massiveloss of agrobiodiversity
      FAO (1998) estimates that since the beginning of this century, about 75% of the genetic diversity of agricultural crops has been lost.
      In China, for example, nearly 10,000 wheat varieties were cultivated in 1949. By the 1970s, only about 1,000 varieties were still in use (FAO 1996).
      In Mexico, only 20% of the maize varieties reported in 1930 are now known in the country (FAO 1996).
      In Germany about half of the plant species in pastures have been lost (Isselstein 2003)
      In south Italy about 75% of crop varieties have disappeared (Hammer et al. 2003).
    • Gap Analysis: Strategiestofilltheholes in ourseedcollections
    • The Gap Analysis process
      Proxy for:
      • Diversity
      • Possibly biotic traits
      Proxy for:
      • Range of traits
      Proxy for:
      • Abiotic traits
    • The Gap Analysisroadmap
      Taxonomy review
      Data gathering
      Georeferentiaton
      Environmental
      data gathering
      Gap Analysis
      process
      Final
      recommendations
    • HERBARIUM
      GERMPLASM
    • NO
      GERMPLASM
      DEFICIENT
      GERMPLASM
    • POTENTIAL
      RICHNESS
      RARE
      ENVIRONMENTS
    • Wild Vigna collecting priorities
      Spatial analysis on current conserved materials
      *Gaps* in current collections
      Definition and prioritisation of collecting areas
      8 100x100km cells to complete collections of 23 wild Vigna priority species
    • Richness in collecting zones at species level
    • Richness in collecting zones at genepool level
    • CONCLUSIONS
    • What the data says
      Our protected areas work today, not tomorrow
      Do we conserve 10 -> 20% of the land mass, or do we need a new conservation paradigm?
      The solutions for agricultural biodiversity are actually more simple
      We need to reconstruct our landscapes to function as protected areas -> Eco-efficient agriculture
    • Reminder: The Main Messages
      The availability of biodiversity data is absolutely necessary to be able to PLAN conservation now and into the future
      Data should be shared nationally for developing national plans, but also internationally for designing international policy
      Especially in the case of climate change: species move around, and they do NOT respect national borders, nor do they need visas!
    • THANKS!
      a.jarvis@cgiar.org