Impactos e implicaciones del cambio climático para frutas

1,136 views
1,041 views

Published on

Presentacion por Andy Jarvis en el segundo congreso internacional hortifruticola en bogota, Colombia julio 2011.

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,136
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
111
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
11
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • La contribución de la agricultura al PIB ha estadoentre 10 y 14% en los últimos 14 años. 21% empleos
  • ANIMATED SLIDE. Example of systemic adjustments vs. structural adaptation with the coffee supply chain. Shading is one example of an adjustment, whereas larger scale, transformational, “structural adaptation” requires larger changes, which in this case can occur via certifications of climate-proofed coffee (C4 label). This creates an incentive for retailers and federations to invest in more sustainable coffee production (e.g., organic) and more resilient inputs (e.g., certain varietals). The result is adaptive change all along the supply chain.
  • ANIMATED SLIDE.
  • Impactos e implicaciones del cambio climático para frutas

    1. 1. Cambioclimatico en Colombia y el sector hortofruticola<br />Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata, Alonso Gonzalez, Peter Laderach<br />Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical, CIAT<br />
    2. 2. Concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero<br />Implicaciones a largo plazo en el clima, y aptitud climática para producir cultivos<br />
    3. 3. Crop suitability is changing<br />Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050<br />
    4. 4. Mitigacionrefiere a la reduccion de emisiones de gases de efectoinvernadero<br />Colombia aporta 0.37% de emisionesglobales<br />35-40% proviene del sector agropecuario<br />Adaptacionrefiere a procesosqueaumenta la capacidad de enfrentar los impactos de cambioclimatico<br />Mitigacion y Adaptacion<br />
    5. 5. Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases<br />excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq<br />Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008<br />
    6. 6. Carbon footprint of fruit production systems in Colombia<br />Mora (Rubus glaucus) <br />Area cultivated: 10,743 ha<br />Yield: 8.7 t ha-1 yr-1<br />2500 plants ha-1<br />Economical life: 3 years<br />Nutrient inputs (kg ha-1 yr-1)<br />N: 140 – 233<br />P: 90 – 170 <br />K: 80 – 160<br />Guanabana (Annona muricata)<br />Area cultivated: 2,395 ha<br />Yield: 9.0 t ha-1 yr-1<br />~ 240 trees ha-1<br />Economical life: > 10 yrs<br />Nutrient inputs (kg ha-1 yr-1)<br />N: 30 - 80<br />P: 10 - 30<br />K: 15 – 40 <br />
    7. 7.
    8. 8. Characterized from supply chain actors <br />Carbon Footprint<br />online platform<br />
    9. 9. Modelos: Cómo saber qué pasará?<br />
    10. 10. Cambio climático: por qué? dónde? cuándo?<br />Cuándo empezará a cambiar el clima?<br />…en realidad ya comenzó<br />
    11. 11. Cambio climático: por qué? dónde? cuándo?<br />
    12. 12. Modelos GCM : “Global Climate Models”<br />21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basados en ciencias atmosféricas, química, física, biología<br />Se corre desde el pasado hasta el futuro<br />Hay diferentes escenarios de emisiones de gases<br />INCERTIDUMBRE POLITICO (EMISIONES), Y INCERTIDUMBRE CIENTIFICO (MODELOS)<br />
    13. 13. Incertidumbre: entonces sabemos o no?<br />
    14. 14. Entonces, ¿qué es lo que dicen?<br />
    15. 15. Variabilidad y linea base<br />+<br />Climate<br />Baseline<br />_<br />Timescale<br />Short(change in baseline and variability)Long<br />
    16. 16.
    17. 17.
    18. 18.
    19. 19. Climate change<br />predictions for 2050<br />Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) <br />Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá<br />By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C<br />The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C <br />The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C <br />By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters. <br />“It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”<br />
    20. 20. Los Problemas<br />
    21. 21. Impactos esperados sobre la producción bananera<br />
    22. 22. Adaptabilidad del cultivo<br />Parámetros de crecimiento y potencial actual<br />
    23. 23. Impactos del cambio climático sobre adaptabilidad del cultivo<br />
    24. 24. Un análisis sectorial para Colombia<br />
    25. 25. Impactos en Colombia: cambio (%) en productividad a nivelNacional<br />
    26. 26. Exposure<br />by changing crop suitability of Potato<br />Papa<br />
    27. 27. Cambiospromedios en adaptabilidadpordepartamento<br />
    28. 28. Dos casosdiferentes: Bolivar vs. Cauca<br />
    29. 29.
    30. 30. Aguacate: actual, futuro y cambio al 2050<br />
    31. 31. Naranja: actual, futuro y cambio al 2050<br />
    32. 32. HaciaSoluciones<br />
    33. 33. Adaptive Adjustments<br />Structural Adaptation<br />Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers have adapted their production system to a changing climate.<br />Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4-certified “climate-proofed” coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure.<br />Action:<br />a) Shading<br />b) Changing varietals<br />c) Changing inputs<br />a) Shading<br />Result: Improved risk management at the farm level, allowing for long-term adaption.<br />C4<br />Input Providers<br />Wholesale/Retail<br />Coffee Federation<br />Consumer<br />Coffee Producers<br />Other Crops<br />
    34. 34. Transformational Adaptation<br />Action: <br />Migrate to keep farming<br />Change farming systems (agricultural)<br />Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural)<br />Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs.<br />Coffee Producers<br />
    35. 35. Framework<br />Chain Inclusive Adaptation to GCC Impacts<br />Analysis of food supply chains and business nature<br />Vulnerability assessment of the supply chains<br />Analysis of people, behavioural traits and institutionalised patterns<br />Derivation of chain inclusive adaptation strategies<br />People<br />Importance<br />Tools<br />Business<br />Institutions<br />Resilience<br />By means of:<br /><ul><li>Quantitative fieldwork at farm level
    36. 36. Geographic crop modelling
    37. 37. Participative workshops
    38. 38. Expert interviews with key supply chain actors
    39. 39. Fieldwork observations</li></ul>Exposure<br />Adaptive Capacity<br />Sensitivity<br />
    40. 40. Como adaptamos?<br />Necesitamos saber quehacemos, como lo hacemos, cuando lo hacemos y donde?<br />Primeropasoesanalisar el problema<br />Segundo, analisaropciones de adaptacion<br />Evaluarcosto-beneficiopara el sector<br />Implementar<br />HAZLO AHORA, especialemente en perennes<br />INVESTIGACION Y DESARROLLO TECNOLOGICO<br />POLITICAS PUBLICOS Y PRIVADOS<br />BUEN AGRONOMIA<br />
    41. 41. Email: a.jarvis@cgiar.org<br />Internet: http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org<br />

    ×