Impactos e implicaciones del cambio climático para frutas

Cambioclimatico en Colombia y el sector hortofruticola
Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata, Alonso Gonzalez, Peter Laderach
Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical, CIAT

Concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero
Implicaciones a largo plazo en el clima, y aptitud climática para producir cultivos

Crop suitability is changing
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Mitigacionrefiere a la reduccion de emisiones de gases de efectoinvernadero
Colombia aporta 0.37% de emisionesglobales
35-40% proviene del sector agropecuario
Adaptacionrefiere a procesosqueaumenta la capacidad de enfrentar los impactos de cambioclimatico
Mitigacion y Adaptacion

Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases
excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq
Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008

Carbon footprint of fruit production systems in Colombia
Mora (Rubus glaucus)
Area cultivated: 10,743 ha
Yield: 8.7 t ha-1 yr-1
2500 plants ha-1
Economical life: 3 years
Nutrient inputs (kg ha-1 yr-1)
N: 140 – 233
P: 90 – 170
K: 80 – 160
Guanabana (Annona muricata)
Area cultivated: 2,395 ha
Yield: 9.0 t ha-1 yr-1
~ 240 trees ha-1
Economical life: > 10 yrs
Nutrient inputs (kg ha-1 yr-1)
N: 30 - 80
P: 10 - 30
K: 15 – 40

Characterized from supply chain actors
Carbon Footprint
online platform

Modelos: Cómo saber qué pasará?

Cambio climático: por qué? dónde? cuándo?
Cuándo empezará a cambiar el clima?
…en realidad ya comenzó

Cambio climático: por qué? dónde? cuándo?

Modelos GCM : “Global Climate Models”
21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basados en ciencias atmosféricas, química, física, biología
Se corre desde el pasado hasta el futuro
Hay diferentes escenarios de emisiones de gases
INCERTIDUMBRE POLITICO (EMISIONES), Y INCERTIDUMBRE CIENTIFICO (MODELOS)

Incertidumbre: entonces sabemos o no?

Entonces, ¿qué es lo que dicen?

Variabilidad y linea base
+
Climate
Baseline
_
Timescale
Short(change in baseline and variability)Long

Climate change
predictions for 2050
Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)
Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá
By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C
The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C
The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C
By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters.
“It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”

Los Problemas

Impactos esperados sobre la producción bananera

Adaptabilidad del cultivo
Parámetros de crecimiento y potencial actual

Impactos del cambio climático sobre adaptabilidad del cultivo

Un análisis sectorial para Colombia

Impactos en Colombia: cambio (%) en productividad a nivelNacional

Exposure
by changing crop suitability of Potato
Papa

Cambiospromedios en adaptabilidadpordepartamento

Dos casosdiferentes: Bolivar vs. Cauca

Aguacate: actual, futuro y cambio al 2050

Naranja: actual, futuro y cambio al 2050

HaciaSoluciones

Adaptive Adjustments
Structural Adaptation
Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers have adapted their production system to a changing climate.
Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4-certified “climate-proofed” coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure.
Action:
a) Shading
b) Changing varietals
c) Changing inputs
a) Shading
Result: Improved risk management at the farm level, allowing for long-term adaption.
C4
Input Providers
Wholesale/Retail
Coffee Federation
Consumer
Coffee Producers
Other Crops

Transformational Adaptation
Action:
Migrate to keep farming
Change farming systems (agricultural)
Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural)
Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs.
Coffee Producers

Framework
Chain Inclusive Adaptation to GCC Impacts
Analysis of food supply chains and business nature
Vulnerability assessment of the supply chains
Analysis of people, behavioural traits and institutionalised patterns
Derivation of chain inclusive adaptation strategies
People
Importance
Tools
Business
Institutions
Resilience
By means of:
Quantitative fieldwork at farm level
Geographic crop modelling
Participative workshops
Expert interviews with key supply chain actors
Fieldwork observations
Exposure
Adaptive Capacity
Sensitivity

Como adaptamos?
Necesitamos saber quehacemos, como lo hacemos, cuando lo hacemos y donde?
Primeropasoesanalisar el problema
Segundo, analisaropciones de adaptacion
Evaluarcosto-beneficiopara el sector
Implementar
HAZLO AHORA, especialemente en perennes
INVESTIGACION Y DESARROLLO TECNOLOGICO
POLITICAS PUBLICOS Y PRIVADOS
BUEN AGRONOMIA

Email: a.jarvis@cgiar.org
Internet: http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org

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Impactos e implicaciones del cambio climático para frutas

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