Impactos e implicaciones del cambio climático para frutas
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Impactos e implicaciones del cambio climático para frutas

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Presentacion por Andy Jarvis en el segundo congreso internacional hortifruticola en bogota, Colombia julio 2011.

Presentacion por Andy Jarvis en el segundo congreso internacional hortifruticola en bogota, Colombia julio 2011.

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  • La contribución de la agricultura al PIB ha estadoentre 10 y 14% en los últimos 14 años. 21% empleos
  • ANIMATED SLIDE. Example of systemic adjustments vs. structural adaptation with the coffee supply chain. Shading is one example of an adjustment, whereas larger scale, transformational, “structural adaptation” requires larger changes, which in this case can occur via certifications of climate-proofed coffee (C4 label). This creates an incentive for retailers and federations to invest in more sustainable coffee production (e.g., organic) and more resilient inputs (e.g., certain varietals). The result is adaptive change all along the supply chain.
  • ANIMATED SLIDE.

Impactos e implicaciones del cambio climático para frutas Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Cambioclimatico en Colombia y el sector hortofruticola
    Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata, Alonso Gonzalez, Peter Laderach
    Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical, CIAT
  • 2. Concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero
    Implicaciones a largo plazo en el clima, y aptitud climática para producir cultivos
  • 3. Crop suitability is changing
    Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
  • 4. Mitigacionrefiere a la reduccion de emisiones de gases de efectoinvernadero
    Colombia aporta 0.37% de emisionesglobales
    35-40% proviene del sector agropecuario
    Adaptacionrefiere a procesosqueaumenta la capacidad de enfrentar los impactos de cambioclimatico
    Mitigacion y Adaptacion
  • 5. Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases
    excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq
    Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
  • 6. Carbon footprint of fruit production systems in Colombia
    Mora (Rubus glaucus)
    Area cultivated: 10,743 ha
    Yield: 8.7 t ha-1 yr-1
    2500 plants ha-1
    Economical life: 3 years
    Nutrient inputs (kg ha-1 yr-1)
    N: 140 – 233
    P: 90 – 170
    K: 80 – 160
    Guanabana (Annona muricata)
    Area cultivated: 2,395 ha
    Yield: 9.0 t ha-1 yr-1
    ~ 240 trees ha-1
    Economical life: > 10 yrs
    Nutrient inputs (kg ha-1 yr-1)
    N: 30 - 80
    P: 10 - 30
    K: 15 – 40
  • 7.
  • 8. Characterized from supply chain actors
    Carbon Footprint
    online platform
  • 9. Modelos: Cómo saber qué pasará?
  • 10. Cambio climático: por qué? dónde? cuándo?
    Cuándo empezará a cambiar el clima?
    …en realidad ya comenzó
  • 11. Cambio climático: por qué? dónde? cuándo?
  • 12. Modelos GCM : “Global Climate Models”
    21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basados en ciencias atmosféricas, química, física, biología
    Se corre desde el pasado hasta el futuro
    Hay diferentes escenarios de emisiones de gases
    INCERTIDUMBRE POLITICO (EMISIONES), Y INCERTIDUMBRE CIENTIFICO (MODELOS)
  • 13. Incertidumbre: entonces sabemos o no?
  • 14. Entonces, ¿qué es lo que dicen?
  • 15. Variabilidad y linea base
    +
    Climate
    Baseline
    _
    Timescale
    Short(change in baseline and variability)Long
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. Climate change
    predictions for 2050
    Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)
    Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá
    By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C
    The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C
    The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C
    By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters.
    “It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”
  • 20. Los Problemas
  • 21. Impactos esperados sobre la producción bananera
  • 22. Adaptabilidad del cultivo
    Parámetros de crecimiento y potencial actual
  • 23. Impactos del cambio climático sobre adaptabilidad del cultivo
  • 24. Un análisis sectorial para Colombia
  • 25. Impactos en Colombia: cambio (%) en productividad a nivelNacional
  • 26. Exposure
    by changing crop suitability of Potato
    Papa
  • 27. Cambiospromedios en adaptabilidadpordepartamento
  • 28. Dos casosdiferentes: Bolivar vs. Cauca
  • 29.
  • 30. Aguacate: actual, futuro y cambio al 2050
  • 31. Naranja: actual, futuro y cambio al 2050
  • 32. HaciaSoluciones
  • 33. Adaptive Adjustments
    Structural Adaptation
    Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers have adapted their production system to a changing climate.
    Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4-certified “climate-proofed” coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure.
    Action:
    a) Shading
    b) Changing varietals
    c) Changing inputs
    a) Shading
    Result: Improved risk management at the farm level, allowing for long-term adaption.
    C4
    Input Providers
    Wholesale/Retail
    Coffee Federation
    Consumer
    Coffee Producers
    Other Crops
  • 34. Transformational Adaptation
    Action:
    Migrate to keep farming
    Change farming systems (agricultural)
    Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural)
    Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs.
    Coffee Producers
  • 35. Framework
    Chain Inclusive Adaptation to GCC Impacts
    Analysis of food supply chains and business nature
    Vulnerability assessment of the supply chains
    Analysis of people, behavioural traits and institutionalised patterns
    Derivation of chain inclusive adaptation strategies
    People
    Importance
    Tools
    Business
    Institutions
    Resilience
    By means of:
    • Quantitative fieldwork at farm level
    • 36. Geographic crop modelling
    • 37. Participative workshops
    • 38. Expert interviews with key supply chain actors
    • 39. Fieldwork observations
    Exposure
    Adaptive Capacity
    Sensitivity
  • 40. Como adaptamos?
    Necesitamos saber quehacemos, como lo hacemos, cuando lo hacemos y donde?
    Primeropasoesanalisar el problema
    Segundo, analisaropciones de adaptacion
    Evaluarcosto-beneficiopara el sector
    Implementar
    HAZLO AHORA, especialemente en perennes
    INVESTIGACION Y DESARROLLO TECNOLOGICO
    POLITICAS PUBLICOS Y PRIVADOS
    BUEN AGRONOMIA
  • 41. Email: a.jarvis@cgiar.org
    Internet: http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org