Mercado telecom: tendencias

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  • 1. The Peruvian telecom market Investor presentation Lima, November 20st 2008Proyecto WiMax TISel: plan de negocios 1 de 26 1 of 26Informe final. Setiembre 2007
  • 2. Agenda • The Peruvian telecom market • Economic overview • Industry overview • TrendsThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 2 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 3. Economic overview Consistently stable growth Peru vs. Latin America. Key economic indicators 2005-2007 12% 10% 8% GDP real 6% +5,9% growth (%) 4% 2% 0% N C C B A P o P h B e o a c a U E g C v S V P o n u u M r E n r e a G r r H c l l i i s r n u o e a x 20% 15% Inflation (%) 10% +6,6% LatAm 5% 2005-07 avg 2005-2007 0% 2007 N C C B h o o P A P c e B a U E a a C g V o P u n u E n e H a M r r s c G r r l l i i s n o r u é a xSource: World Bank, IMF, Central BanksThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 3 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 4. Desarrollos recientes Crecimiento consistente de las inversiones Perú. Inversiones 2002-2007e (US$m, % sobre PBI) TCC1: +17% 25 000 23% 25% Impulso 20 000 20% especialmente 18% 18% 20% fuerte en los 15 000 18% 18% últimos 2 años 10 000 15% 5 000 0 10% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007e US$ miles m % sobre PBI1 Tasa de crecimiento anual compuesta (TCC %) para el períodoFuente: BCRP, MEFThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 4 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 5. Agenda • The Peruvian telecom market • Economic overview • Industry overview • TrendsThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 5 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 6. Industry overview Consistent growth, mobile and broadband services drive growth Mercado telecom Perú Indicadores operativos 2T08 US$ 3 835m Ingresos por servicio Magnitud Densidad (2,9% de PBI) 2005-2008e (US$m, % TCC) operativa de mercado TCC % 05-08 % del total 504 Telf fija 1% 13% 2,7m líneas 10% 515 256 Telf pública 239 -3% 6% 184 mil líneas 7 x cada mil hab. 823 Telf móvil 44% 53% 2 046 18,2 m líneas 66% Larga 185 distancia 231 9% 6% 1 542 m min 84 min/mes Internet 129 40% 8% 797 mil suscriptores 3% masivo 299 Datos & 106 23% 5% 16,9 mil enlaces n.a.internet corp 178 127 TV paga 20% 5% 861 mil suscriptores 3% 199 2005 64 2008e Otros 32% 4% n.a. n.a. 129 Fuente: SIT A. Latina Ingresos totales 2008e del mercado telecom Perú The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 6 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 7. Desarrollos recientes Crecimiento consistente de las inversiones telecom Perú. Inversiones telecom 2002-2006 (US$m, % sobre ingresos telecom) TCC: +15% 500 20% Superior 17% 17% 17% a estándar 400 15% 15% A. Latina: 15% 300 ~12-15% 200 10% 100 0 5% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Inversiones telecom I / ing telecom (%)1 Tasa de crecimiento anual compuesta (TCC %) para el períodoFuente: Osiptel, BCRP, estimaciones propiasThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 7 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 8. Industry overview Market concentration Peru & Latin America. Market share, by telecom service 2007 (%) 1% 1% 3% 33% 36% 51% 98% 39% Fixed 22% Mobile 61% 26% 28% L atA m P eru L atA m P eru 0,3% 0,4% 13% 4% 48% 80% 99% Broadband 26% Pay TV 82% 26% 15% 5% L atA m P eru L atA m P eru TEF TMX / AMX OtherSource: TIS Latin AmericaThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 8 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 9. Industry overview Consistent growth, but still room for further expansion Peru vs. Latin America. 2007 Penetration Peru & Latin America (%) (% of GDP) 8% 69 % Bol 6% Par CentralAm % of GDP 56% LA 4% Chi 4% Bra Mex Ecu Ven Col Uru Per (3%) Arg 15 2% % 2,6 6,4 10% % % 2% 3% 0% Fixed Mobile Broadband Pay TV 2,000 8,000 14,000 Average LatAm Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)Source: TIS Latin AmericaThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 9 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 10. Industry overview Regulation agenda (1 of 2) 1. Competition a.Pricing deregulation in LD (Automatic subscriber segment). b.Mobile operator obligations for number portability c. Revision of interconnection charges (capacity charge). d.New maximum pricing for leased lines (going into effect). e.Changes in the Quality Rules Manual (new indicators and administrative sanctions have been included). f. Infrastructure expansion: coordination with local governments to simplify administrative activities. g.Policy changes driven by the Peru-US FTA: infrastructure sharing, LLU, interconnection among others h.Minimize number of regulated services (“desclasificación”) i. Voice over IPThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 10 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 11. Industry overview Regulation agenda (2 of 2) 1. Universal access a. Promote the development of a national backbone and broadband services. b. Promote technological innovation c. Payment of fees (“canon”) and contribution to FITEL according to minimized classification of services d. Obligations to the Emergency Communications System.The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 11 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 12. Agenda • The Peruvian telecom market • Economic overview • Industry overview • TrendsThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 12 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 13. Trends Convergence technology, regulatory, commercial: everything over IP In 2010, la mayoría de los operadores globales habrá concluido su migración hacia un mundo de convergencia.Source: Pyramid ResearchThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 13 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 14. Trends Key takeawaysThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 14 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 15. Trends Convergence strategies. Mobile telephony in LA Revenue from “data” representing approx 14% of total Revenue from “data” representing approx 12% of total TEF y AMX (11 countries) Only TEF (2 contries) Only AMX (2 countries) None (2 countries) Deployment of 3G networksSource: TIS Latin AmericaThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 15 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 16. Trends Convergence strategies. Fixed telephony in LA Convergence in services, Telefónica and Telmex drive competition TEF y TMX (8 countries) Only TEF (0 countries) Only TMX (1 country) None (8 countries) Triple play package Triple play packageFuente: SIT América Latina, análisis propioThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 16 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 17. Trends Convergence strategies. Mobile telephony in Peru Now What comes next? Broadband mobile Smartphone devices Texting Voice TimeFuente: www.movistar.com.pe; www.claro.com.peThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 17 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 18. Trends Convergence strategies. Fixed telephony in Peru Now What comes next? Convergence tecnologhy Convergence in services Broadband Voice TimeFuente: www.telefonica.com.pe; www.telmex.com.peThe Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 18 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 19. Industry overview Key takeaways • The last few years have been quite favorable for the economy and the telecom sector in Peru. • Service coverage and penetration rates have grown considerably and in a sustained manner. This is reflected in revenues. The highest growth services are broadband and mobile telephony, in that order. • Despite the growth of recent years, the penetration rates in Peru are still low, resulting in a high degree of inequality, particularly between Lima and the rest of the country. • Strong growth in the industry is foreseen over the next few years due to sustained economic growth of the country, technological convergence (giving rise to disruptive services: VoIP), and government policy promoting universal access and competition. • Such growth will come through convergent business models developed by operators and promoted by the government. • The arrival of these business models under the umbrella of a national broadband development model will contribute to the reduction of the digital gap in Peru, thus bringing about further development of the country.The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 19 of 18Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008