Transcript of "Open Risk Analysis Software - Data And Methodologies"
Open Risk Analysis Software Data and Methodologies <ul><ul><li>Christakis Mina </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Kyoto University </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Graduate School of Engineering </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Department of Urban Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Planning and Management Systems </li></ul></ul>
Presentation Outline <ul><ul><li>Introduction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Open Risk Analysis Motivation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Free/Open Source Paradigm </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The A lliance for G lobal O pen R isk A nalysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Open Risk Analysis Example: MIRISK </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Future </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Summary and Discussion </li></ul></ul>
Open Risk Analysis Motivation Currently, researchers and practitioners in the Disaster Risk Management field lack transparent methodologies , tools (e.g. Software ) and open data . A lot of research is being contacted in academic as well as non-profit and for-profit organizations, resulting in the creation of software and methodologies. A replication of effort exists, though, due to the lack of open and unified standards and a common platform to co-ordinate the efforts. In addition to that, open and easily accessible data are hard to found thus causing a slow down in the research progress.
<ul><li>The Needs </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Access to Open Data </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Open Methodologies and Standards </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Transparent and Flexible Tools (e.g. Software) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Rapid Development of Peer-Reviewed Tools </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Effective Collaboration Platforms </li></ul></ul></ul>Open Risk Analysis Motivation
The F/OSS* Paradigm * F/OSS: Free/Open Source Software
AGORA* Promote and coordinate open risk analysis of natural and technological hazards. Development of open-source risk software and methodologies to perform end-to-end * risk modeling. * End-to-end refers to the modeling of hazardous events and their impacts, from the event occurrence through site effects, physical damage to the built environment, to economic and human impacts. Kyoto University (Japan) California Institute of Technology (USA) Cambridge University (UK) Imperial College (UK) University of California, Berkeley (USA) University of Pavia (Italy) Virginia Tech (USA) Kandili Observatory of Bogazici University (Turkey) Extreme Situations Research Center (Russia) US Geological Survey MAE - Mid-America Earthquake Center NEES - Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation Russian Academy of Sciences Southern California Earthquake Center Lloyd’s of London Flagstone Re SPA Risk LLC * www.risk-agora.org
AGORA <ul><ul><li>Provide a platform to bring together researchers and practitioners from various disciplines, backgrounds and cultures to aid them in the exchange of information , ideas , tools , data and methodologies for risk analysis and risk problem solving. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Support understanding and collaboration among the academia, non-profit, governmental and private organizations for the purpose of contributing to Open Risk Analysis and risk problem solving. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Facilitate dissemination of open knowledge related to risk analysis. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Encourage applications of open risk analysis methods. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Promote the advancement of the latest advanced research and education on open risk analysis. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide services to its members (e.g. promotion and development of their careers). </li></ul></ul>
MIRISK - Purpose Provide a user friendly tool to aid decision makers in considering Natural Hazards in funded projects Increase awareness and provide guidance for Natural Hazards risk analysis and mitigation
MIRISK - Goals Provide information for Natural Hazards design guidelines , norms and good practices – a reference tool for use by decision makers. Enable assessment of infrastructure risk and vulnerability of damage and losses in past disasters Be a user-friendly tool for risk assessment of critical infrastructure Be developed within a non-proprietary ( open source ) software package subscribing to the AGORA framework
MIRISK – Potential Uses Determine what hazards might potentially impact a region What impacts might these hazards have on a specific project Quantitatively assess direct impacts Quantitatively assess indirect impacts Determine what sorts of structural, locational, operational and risk transfer alternatives are available to reduce the direct and indirect impacts Determine which of the available alternatives are most cost-beneficial What are the design parameters and best practices to actualize these alternatives within the overall project
MIRISK – Database Contents Hazard data Global HotSpots Project GSHAP Project GIS data NASA earth observatory GSHAP Project UNEP/GRID-Geneva Preview NGDC Dartmouth Flood Observatory Atlas of Large Flood Events Global Volcanism Program
MIRISK – Global HotSpots* 2005 assessment of natural disaster risk innovative, high impact first such global analysis employed ‘off-the-shelf’ data “ 1st order” analysis – “crude” (authors’ term) data freely available Global distribution of flood mortality risk * Dilley, M., Chen, R. S., Deichmann, U., Lerner-Lam, A. L., and Arnold, M. (2005) "Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis.”, The World Bank, Washington ,D.C.
MIRISK – Loss Estimation Objective To provide a quantitative estimate of incremental cost given project design level , cost of repair , duration of disruption , and benefit cost . Loss Metric Expected Annualized Loss ( EAL ), i.e. the average loss per year due to the occurrence of a natural hazard. Assumptions