Public Opinion &
Political Socialization
Dr. Christopher S. Rice

“There are
three
kinds of
lies: lies,
damn lies,
and
statistics.”
~ Mark Twain

Public Opinion
The politically relevant opinions
held by ordinary citizens that
they express openly through
words or actions.

Polling

Survey
Systematic interviews by trained,
professional interviewers, who ask
a standardized set of questions of
a rather small number of
randomly chosen citizens.

Public Opinion Poll
a relatively few individuals (the
sample) are interviewed in order
to estimate the opinions of a
whole population.

The Theory of Probability

Sampling Error?

The Bell Curve
68%
95%

Representative
(Probability) Sample
sample in which each individual in
the population has a known
probability of being selected at
random for inclusion in the survey

Phone Books and
Computer Dialing
(cc) 2006 mj ecker Some Rights Reserved

What
about
Cell
Phones?
(cc) 2006 Andreww Hubbell Some Rights Reserved

Straw Polls
Unscientific surveys which
make no attempt at using a
representative (random)
sample in their polling.

1936 Presidential Election

1948 Presidential
Election

2004 Zogby Exit Polls

Push polls
Polls which deliberately feed
respondents misleading
information or leading
questions in an effort to
“push” them into favoring a
particular candidate or issue.

Surveys and Polling

Political Socialization
the learning process through
which people acquire their
political opinions, beliefs & values.

Political beliefs are
NOT ingrained…
they are acquired
through a lifelong
learning process.

Political outlook is
substantially influenced by
childhood learning.

Political outlook is
substantially influenced by
childhood learning.

Political Socialization is
CUMULATIVE in nature

VS.

Age-Cohort Tendency

Agents of Political Socialization

Agents of Political Socialization
Family

Agents of Political Socialization
Family
Schools

Agents of Political Socialization
Family
Schools
Mass Media

Agents of Political Socialization
Family
Schools
Mass Media
Peers

Agents of Political Socialization
Family
Schools
Mass Media
Peers
Political Institutions & Leaders

Agents of Political Socialization
Family
Schools
Mass Media
Peers
Political Institutions & Leaders
Churches

Effects on Public Opinion of…

Effects on Public Opinion of…
Race and ethnicity

Effects on Public Opinion of…
Race and ethnicity
Religion

Effects on Public Opinion of…
Race and ethnicity
Religion
Region

Effects on Public Opinion of…
Race and ethnicity
Religion
Region
City vs. country

Effects on Public Opinion of…
Race and ethnicity
Religion
Region
City vs. country
Party Affiliation