PS 101 Voting & Elections Fall 2008

1,178 views

Published on

Published in: News & Politics, Education
1 Comment
2 Likes
Statistics
Notes
No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,178
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
110
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
1
Likes
2
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

PS 101 Voting & Elections Fall 2008

  1. 1. Understanding Voting Dr. Christopher S. Rice University of Kentucky
  2. 2. Models of Voting Behavior • The sociological model • The social-psychological model • The rational choice model
  3. 3. Sociological Model
  4. 4. Columbia Model
  5. 5. (cc) 2007 flickr user Roadsidepictures
  6. 6. Group-Level Characteristics Determine Voter Preference (cc) 2005 Flickr user hometownzero
  7. 7. Socio-Economic (cc) 2008 Flickr user Loungerie Status (SES)
  8. 8. Religion (cc) 2008 Flickr user Brandon Brubaker
  9. 9. Where You Live (cc) 2005 flickr user archibald jude
  10. 10. Who Votes? Higher incomes. Very young unlikely to vote. Unemployed have a very low rate of turnout. Latinos have especially low turnout rate, but it is increasing. More educated more likely to vote.
  11. 11. Problems
  12. 12. WHY?
  13. 13. y
  14. 14. n
  15. 15. Socio-Psychological Model
  16. 16. Columbia Model
  17. 17. (cc) 2006 flickr user thesyemism Individual, not Group, Attitudes
  18. 18. Vote Choice Criteria Prospective Retrospective Voting Voting (Issues) (Performance) Party ID Candidate Image
  19. 19. 5 Things To Know Decision Rule Information Required Voter Rationality Elite Accountability Problems
  20. 20. Vote Choice Criteria Prospective Retrospective Voting Voting (Issues) (Performance) Party ID Candidate Image
  21. 21. Prospective Voting (Issues) Decision Rule Information Required Voter Rationality Elite Accountability Problems
  22. 22. Vote Choice Criteria Prospective Retrospective Voting Voting (Issues) (Performance) Party ID Candidate Image
  23. 23. Retrospective Voting (Performance) Decision Rule Information Required Voter Rationality Elite Accountability Problems
  24. 24. Vote Choice Criteria Prospective Retrospective Voting Voting (Issues) (Performance) Party ID Candidate Image
  25. 25. Party ID Decision Rule Information Required Voter Rationality Elite Accountability Problems
  26. 26. Vote Choice Criteria Prospective Retrospective Voting Voting (Issues) (Performance) Party ID Candidate Image
  27. 27. Candidate Image Decision Rule Information Required Voter Rationality Elite Accountability Problems
  28. 28. Rational Actor Model
  29. 29. V=B>C
  30. 30. ? ? (cc) 2008 Flickr user gutter
  31. 31. Information Costs What does it cost in time, money, effort to be informed?
  32. 32. +I = B > C
  33. 33. -I = B < C
  34. 34. Expected Benefits benefits X probability of affecting the outcome of the vote
  35. 35. Heuristics (Cognitive Shortcuts)
  36. 36. (cc) 2005 Flickr user Roadsidepictures
  37. 37. Too Much Information = Higher Information Costs
  38. 38. Problems
  39. 39. PROBLEMS • Theory a poor match with reality • Can lead to errors: non-optimal decisions vs. “reasonable” • Information can make a difference • Rational for individuals to be uninformed, but collectively it’s irrational. • Ignores costs at the collective level • More informed public = more accountable elites • Uninformed public susceptible to manipulation.
  40. 40. Michigan Model FTW!

×