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PS 101 Public Opinion Summer 2008
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PS 101 Public Opinion Summer 2008

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PS 101 Public Opinion Summer 2008 PS 101 Public Opinion Summer 2008 Presentation Transcript

  • Public Opinion Dr. Christopher S. Rice
  • “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.” ~ Mark Twain
  • Public Opinion The politically relevant opinions held by ordinary citizens that they express openly through words or actions.
  • Polling
  • Survey Systematic interviews by trained, professional interviewers, who ask a standardized set of questions of a rather small number of randomly chosen citizens.
  • Public Opinion Poll a relatively few individuals (the sample) are interviewed in order to estimate the opinions of a whole population.
  • The Theory of Probability
  • Sampling Error?
  • The Bell Curve 68% 95%
  • Representative (Probability) Sample sample in which each individual in the population has a known probability of being selected at random for inclusion in the survey
  • Phone Books and Computer Dialing (cc) 2006 mj ecker Some Rights Reserved
  • What about Cell Phones? (cc) 2006 Andreww Hubbell Some Rights Reserved
  • Straw Polls Unscientific surveys which make no attempt at using a representative (random) sample in their polling.
  • 1936 Presidential Election
  • 1948 Presidential Election
  • 2004 Zogby Exit Polls
  • Push polls Polls which deliberately feed respondents misleading information or leading questions in an effort to “push” them into favoring a particular candidate or issue.
  • Surveys and Polling