T welve trends for the future of food production

W e have come a long way

A nd we still have a long way to go It will require: Ability to adapt Ability to manage Ability to innovate

It will require:

Ability to adapt

Ability to manage

Ability to innovate

M anagement of soils and land Preservation of fertile land Development of new arable land Managing urbanism and agriculture Prevention of pollution by excessive manure, minerals, heavy metals, chemicals Avoiding soil depletion and erosion Choice of crop rotation and crop combinations

Preservation of fertile land

Development of new arable land

Managing urbanism and agriculture

Prevention of pollution by excessive manure, minerals, heavy metals, chemicals

Avoiding soil depletion and erosion

Choice of crop rotation and crop combinations

M anagement of water Reducing waste Provide just the necessary amount Recycling systems Water treatment Prevention of water pollution Management of rivers Urbanism vs. agriculture Dealing with droughts Irrigation systems and strategies

Reducing waste

Provide just the necessary amount

Recycling systems

Water treatment

Prevention of water pollution

Management of rivers

Urbanism vs. agriculture

Dealing with droughts

Irrigation systems and strategies

M anagement of the sea Like for land development, economic zoning of oceans will develop much further and become a critical management tool Conflicts about ownership Expect major programs to repopulate fish stocks More regulations for fisheries and its sustainability Aquaculture will have to be involved as a sea manager

Like for land development, economic zoning of oceans will develop much further and become a critical management tool

Conflicts about ownership

Expect major programs to repopulate fish stocks

More regulations for fisheries and its sustainability

Aquaculture will have to be involved as a sea manager

S trategies for food security will intensify Food and water will become more strategic than oil has been Countries below self-reliance will seek to secure food sources Purchase or lease of land by countries and private companies or investors More mergers in the agri-food sector Further development of trade agreements Geographical alliances Lots of politics Tensions will rise Still many will remain underfed (1 billion people today)

Food and water will become more strategic than oil has been

Countries below self-reliance will seek to secure food sources

Purchase or lease of land by countries and private companies or investors

More mergers in the agri-food sector

Further development of trade agreements

Geographical alliances

Lots of politics

Tensions will rise

Still many will remain underfed (1 billion people today)

G overnment intervention and regulation will increase Will happen under pressure of the people Will be aimed at social stability Power struggle between governments, corporations and land owners for the control of food Stricter regulations of commodities futures markets Possible nationalizations More regulations on Pollution standards Sustainability Food safety Traceability and origin of food Use of antibiotics and hormones Use of herbicides, pesticides and chemicals

Will happen under pressure of the people

Will be aimed at social stability

Power struggle between governments, corporations and land owners for the control of food

Stricter regulations of commodities futures markets

Possible nationalizations

More regulations on

Pollution standards

Sustainability

Food safety

Traceability and origin of food

Use of antibiotics and hormones

Use of herbicides, pesticides and chemicals

F ood prices will increase Supply and demand will rule Speculation and greed Competition between People People and farm animals People and fuel (?) Animal protein will become very expensive, especially the species that have a poor feed conversion

Supply and demand will rule

Speculation and greed

Competition between

People

People and farm animals

People and fuel (?)

Animal protein will become very expensive, especially the species that have a poor feed conversion

S tronger polarization of markets (1) Strong emergence of two opposite strategies between commodities and specialties Commodities will be mostly a global business Specialties will be mostly a local business Specialty agriculture will grow faster than commodity Local trade will increase faster Result of transportation costs and energy conservation Redevelopment of local economies at communities’ level Consumer looking for “authentic” and “trusted origin”

Strong emergence of two opposite strategies between commodities and specialties

Commodities will be mostly a global business

Specialties will be mostly a local business

Specialty agriculture will grow faster than commodity

Local trade will increase faster

Result of transportation costs and energy conservation

Redevelopment of local economies at communities’ level

Consumer looking for “authentic” and “trusted origin”

S tronger polarization of markets (2) One “mature” food market in Western countries Continuation of today’s trend Consumption per capita will not increase Focus on quality, food safety and dining experience One “emerging” food market in emerging countries Similar to Western countries after WWII Change of diet towards higher value food At first, sourcing of cheap commodity type of foods Will mature later depending on economic welfare

One “mature” food market in Western countries

Continuation of today’s trend

Consumption per capita will not increase

Focus on quality, food safety and dining experience

One “emerging” food market in emerging countries

Similar to Western countries after WWII

Change of diet towards higher value food

At first, sourcing of cheap commodity type of foods

Will mature later depending on economic welfare

S tronger polarization of markets (3) Retailers will lead market evolution: More demands on product quality standards Traceability systems will become basic requirement Suppliers will have to demonstrate sustainability Health aspects of food will become increasingly important Lots of money will be made in agriculture and food

Retailers will lead market evolution:

More demands on product quality standards

Traceability systems will become basic requirement

Suppliers will have to demonstrate sustainability

Health aspects of food will become increasingly important

Lots of money will be made in agriculture and food

W orld food trade will shift (1) Shift of consumption centers from Western countries to Asia (> 50% world population) Emerging countries will attract commodities China, India want to feed their huge populations (no social unrest) South East Asia will feed the Chinese giant and itself Arab countries want to have food while saving their water reserves

Shift of consumption centers from Western countries to Asia (> 50% world population)

Emerging countries will attract commodities

China, India want to feed their huge populations (no social unrest)

South East Asia will feed the Chinese giant and itself

Arab countries want to have food while saving their water reserves

W orld food trade will shift (2) Russia wants to add food to natural resources to keep political leverage Brazil wants to become a superpower thanks to agriculture and energy African countries need development and the money it requires Western countries are aging

Russia wants to add food to natural resources to keep political leverage

Brazil wants to become a superpower thanks to agriculture and energy

African countries need development and the money it requires

Western countries are aging

I nnovation and efficiency Need to feed more people on limited agricultural area requires new techniques Most successful productions will be the most efficient ones Techniques that increase efficiency in: Energy use Fertilization Water use Feed conversion ratio Efficiency is not the same as intensification Research against diseases (plants and animal) will become critical

Need to feed more people on limited agricultural area requires new techniques

Most successful productions will be the most efficient ones

Techniques that increase efficiency in:

Energy use

Fertilization

Water use

Feed conversion ratio

Efficiency is not the same as intensification

Research against diseases (plants and animal) will become critical

B reeding and genetic engineering will join forces (1) Breeding will remain the backbone of genetic selection Genetic engineering will shift from a support activity to other business (for ex. herbicide) to bring solutions for more fundamental problems

Breeding will remain the backbone of genetic selection

Genetic engineering will shift from a support activity to other business (for ex. herbicide) to bring solutions for more fundamental problems

B reeding and genetic engineering will join forces (2) New developments will come in: Disease resistance Animal feed efficiency Water efficiency Fertilizer efficiency Use of air N 2 by plants

New developments will come in:

Disease resistance

Animal feed efficiency

Water efficiency

Fertilizer efficiency

Use of air N 2 by plants

A quaculture will keep growing strongly Aquaculture is the fastest growing food source today and will stay that way Wild fish stocks have decreased strongly and demand for fish is high Growth in high population density areas for local communities Needs to learn from land farm animal husbandry Must address pollution issues Must cohabitate with fisheries Must solve disease issues Fast growing species, such as tilapia and pangasius, will do very well Carnivore species, such as salmon, will not grow as much Aquaculture will have to play a pivotal role in the proper management of oceans

Aquaculture is the fastest growing food source today and will stay that way

Wild fish stocks have decreased strongly and demand for fish is high

Growth in high population density areas for local communities

Needs to learn from land farm animal husbandry

Must address pollution issues

Must cohabitate with fisheries

Must solve disease issues

Fast growing species, such as tilapia and pangasius, will do very well

Carnivore species, such as salmon, will not grow as much

Aquaculture will have to play a pivotal role in the proper management of oceans

P roduction systems will become more natural Two main drivers: Consumer markets Governments (as reaction to consumer demand) The “green” movement will gather momentum Retailers will demand proof of sustainability Natural before industrial (as perceived so) Emphasis will shift to quality before quantity, yet provide necessary volumes People will become better informed and will make decisions accordingly

Two main drivers:

Consumer markets

Governments (as reaction to consumer demand)

The “green” movement will gather momentum

Retailers will demand proof of sustainability

Natural before industrial (as perceived so)

Emphasis will shift to quality before quantity, yet provide necessary volumes

People will become better informed and will make decisions accordingly

R ecap It will be a different world and a different market place There will be increased competition for food Innovation and technology will bring many answers Food will be one of the most strategic economic activities

It will be a different world and a different market place

There will be increased competition for food

Innovation and technology will bring many answers

Food will be one of the most strategic economic activities

F or more on this topic and how we can help Website: www.hfgfoodfuturist.com Email: info@happyfuturegroup.com

Website: www.hfgfoodfuturist.com

Email: info@happyfuturegroup.com