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2.26.08 Monte Carlo

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• 1. Let’s Make a Deal! p. 464 “The Monty Hall Problem”
• 2. p. 464 “The Monty Hall Problem” <ul><li>Dealer deals three cards (two black, one red) face down. </li></ul>
• 3. p. 464 “The Monty Hall Problem” <ul><li>Dealer deals three cards (two black, one red) face down. </li></ul><ul><li>Player chooses a card </li></ul>
• 4. p. 464 “The Monty Hall Problem” <ul><li>Dealer deals three cards (two black, one red) face down. </li></ul><ul><li>Player chooses a card </li></ul><ul><li>Dealer looks at two remaining cards, turns over a black card. </li></ul>
• 5. p. 464 “The Monty Hall Problem” <ul><li>Dealer deals three cards (two black, one red) face down. </li></ul><ul><li>Player chooses a card </li></ul><ul><li>Dealer looks at two remaining cards, turns over a black card. </li></ul><ul><li>Player can keep the chosen card, or switch to the remaining face down card. </li></ul>Choice of These
• 6. p. 464 “The Monty Hall Problem” <ul><li>Dealer deals three cards (two black, one red) face down. </li></ul><ul><li>Player chooses a card </li></ul><ul><li>Dealer looks at two remaining cards, turns over a black card. </li></ul><ul><li>Player can keep the chosen card, or switch to the remaining face down card. </li></ul><ul><li>If the Player has the red card, they win. </li></ul>
• 7. p. 464 “The Monty Hall Problem” <ul><li>Dealer deals three cards (two black, one red) face down. </li></ul><ul><li>Player chooses a card </li></ul><ul><li>Dealer looks at two remaining cards, turns over a black card. </li></ul><ul><li>Player can keep the chosen card, or switch to the remaining face down card. </li></ul><ul><li>If the Player has the red card, they win. </li></ul><ul><li>Repeat this game 15 times, then switch player/dealer. </li></ul><ul><li>Keep track of whether or not the player switched cards and whether or not the player won the game. </li></ul>
• 8. What is the better strategy… switching cards, or not switching cards? Why? 43.60656 172 133 Not Switch 71.71315 71 180 Switch Win % Losses Wins