Horizon scanning ciktn


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My presentation for Creative Industries KTN on intro to futures thinking

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Horizon scanning ciktn

  1. 1. Horizon ScanningEngaging with the Future<br />Dr Chris Yapp<br />Chris_yapp@hotmail.co.uk<br />June 11<br />1<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  2. 2. June 11<br />2<br />Futures Thinking<br />Contingency planning<br />Scenarios<br />Systems thinking<br />Complexity theory<br />Ethnographic Futures<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  3. 3. What type of future?<br />Desired ( my plan)<br />Desirable ( Plan B)<br />Plausible ( time to rethink?)<br />Consensus ( my contrarian plan)<br />Unpleasant ( don’t want to go there)<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />3<br />
  4. 4. Unpicking Assumptions<br />“The problem is that companies just don’t get Web 2.0.<br />The benefits are out there and the tools are cheap. Planning is expensive and wasteful. Get on with realising the benefits”<br />A Social Media guru<br />While at the same time...<br />Predicted 100% compound growth for 5 years<br />All existing services would still be there and free<br />Values of today’s teenagers would still be their values in 10 years<br />Governments wouldn’t regulate...<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />4<br />
  5. 5. Dimensions of the Current Challenge<br />June 11<br />5<br />structural<br />Economic<br />Change<br />Market Step Change<br />Niche Portfolio<br />Reactive<br />Proactive<br />Strategic<br /> Response<br />Sitting Tight<br />Mopping up<br />cyclical<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  6. 6. Dynamics of the Current Challenge<br />June 11<br />6<br />New Entrant<br />structural<br />Economic<br />Change<br />Market Step Change<br />Niche Portfolio<br />Reactive<br />Proactive<br />Strategic<br /> Response<br />Sitting Tight<br />Mopping up<br />cyclical<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  7. 7. June 11<br />7<br />Problem Types<br />Do we know where<br />We are going?<br />YES<br /> Best practice<br />Scaling practice<br />TASK:<br />Operational<br />Management<br />TASK:<br />Process<br />Development<br />NO<br />YES<br />Do we know<br />How to get<br />There?<br />TASK:<br />Direction<br />Setting<br />TASK:<br />Concept<br />Creation<br />Next practice<br />Emerging practice<br />NO<br />After Eddie Obeng<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  8. 8. Whose problem?<br />June 11<br />8<br />High<br />Political<br />System<br />Think<br />Tank<br />Complexity<br />Consultant<br />Wisdom of<br />The Crowds<br />Academic<br />/Expert<br />Low<br />Low<br />High<br />Uncertainty<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  9. 9. What value?<br />June 11<br />9<br />High<br />Political<br />System<br />Think<br />Tank<br />Track record<br />Complexity<br />Ideas<br />Consultant<br />Wisdom of<br />The Crowds<br />Knowledge<br />Academic<br />/Expert<br />Low<br />Low<br />High<br />Uncertainty<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  10. 10. During Step Change?<br />June 11<br />10<br />High<br />Political<br />System<br />Consultancy squeezed as limited track record<br />Think<br />Tank<br />Complexity<br />Consultant<br />Wisdom of<br />The Crowds<br />Academic<br />/Expert<br />Low<br />Low<br />High<br />Uncertainty<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  11. 11. Horizon Scanning<br />'the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including (but not restricted to) those at the margins of current thinking and planning.'<br />Sigma Scan<br />Politics<br />Economics<br />Science and Technology<br />Environment<br />Society<br />June 11<br />11<br />Outsights-IPSOSMori<br />www.sigmascan.org<br />UK Office of Science and Technology<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  12. 12. The Ways of not knowing<br />H<br />Knowledge<br />Of Outcome<br />Domain<br />Of Risk<br />Domain of<br />Uncertainty<br />Knowledge<br />Of Probability<br />L<br />H<br />Domain of<br />Ignorance<br />Domain of<br />Ambiguity<br />L<br />June 11<br />12<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  13. 13. Why do we get it wrong?<br />Today!!!<br />Prisoners of Language<br />Timing<br />Unintended consequences<br />Sources of Innovation<br />Ask the wrong question/people?<br />Culture<br />Events<br />June 11<br />13<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  14. 14. Not understanding today…<br />Societies taboos<br />Poor data for emerging trends<br />Examples<br />Police<br />Paedophiles<br />Education<br />International/global interconnectivity<br />June 11<br />14<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  15. 15. Timing<br />Inevitability-Predictability<br />Risk and uncertainty<br />Unforseen barriers<br />Social factors<br />Long-term skill developments<br />June 11<br />15<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  16. 16. Timing<br />“In the Future blind People will<br />Be able to drive cars”<br />June 11<br />16<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  17. 17. Results<br />Probability 0.9 with some 0.2<br />Today with Resources: 1-3 years<br />In practice: 3-10 years<br />In reality: 10-100 years<br />June 11<br />17<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  18. 18. Outsights Drivers of 21st century<br />1.   War, terrorism and insecurity<br />2.   Layers of power<br />3.   Economic and financial stability<br />4.   BRICs and emerging powers<br />5.   Five flows of globalisation<br />6.   Intellectual property<br />7.   Health<br />8.   Mobility<br />9.   Population<br />10. Trust and reputation <br />11. Values and beliefs<br />12. Identity<br />13. Consumerism<br />14. Networks and connectivity<br />15. Space<br />16. Science futures<br />17. Science and society<br />18. Resource availability<br />19. Climate change<br />20. Environmental degradation<br />21. Urbanisation <br />June 11<br />18<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  19. 19. 1066 and All That<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />19<br />Roundheads<br />Right<br />Cavaliers<br />Wrong<br />Romantic<br />Repulsive<br />
  20. 20. The Futurists Dilemma<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />20<br /> ?<br />Focussed<br />Theme<br />High<br />Credibility<br />Broad<br />Vision<br />Low <br />Credibility<br />Right<br />Wrong<br />
  21. 21. A Rose by any other name..<br />Bouba<br />Kiki<br />June 11<br />21<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  22. 22. Learning from the edge:Synesthesia<br />June 11<br />22<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  23. 23. Emery and Trist<br />Causal Texture Theory<br />Four Textures<br />Placid Random<br />Placid Clustered<br />Disturbed Reactive<br />Turbulent<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />23<br />
  24. 24. System and Environment<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />24<br />Environment<br />System<br />
  25. 25. The Links<br />L11 Linking components of the system<br />L22 Linking components of the environment<br />L12 Linking the system to the environment (planning)<br />L21 Linking the environment to the system (learning)<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />25<br />
  26. 26. The Four Links<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />26<br />Environment<br />L21<br />Organisation<br />L22<br />L12<br />L11<br />
  27. 27. Placid Random<br />Organisation<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />27<br />Structure of Field<br />Resources, goals and noxiants <br />are randomly distributed in the<br />Field. “Perfect Market Conditions”<br />L11<br />Characteristics of successful coping<br />Response strategies in the type<br />Experience-based tactics<br />Local optimization in the “here and now”<br />Salient Links<br />L11<br />
  28. 28. Placid Clustered<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />28<br />Environment<br />Structure of Field<br />Resources, goals and/or noxiants are located in advantageous (“high ground”) positions<br />L21<br />Organisation<br />Characteristics of successful coping/response strategy in the type<br />Strategizing for securing or accessing “high ground” locations and identifying right placing of outputs<br />Attending to distinctive competence and resource<br />Centralizing operations<br />L11<br />Salient Links<br />L11, L21<br />
  29. 29. Disturbed Reactive<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />29<br />Environment<br />Structure of Field<br />Oligopoly<br />Similar organizations in head-to-head competition<br />More L12 and L21<br />L21<br />Organisation<br />L12<br />Characteristics of successful coping/response strategy in type<br />Game-based strategies<br />Communicating with others to influence inputs<br />Mounting operational “campaigns”<br />Rapid decision making<br />“coming to terms” with others sharing same field<br />L11<br />Salient Links<br />L11, L12,L21<br />
  30. 30. Turbulence<br />Organisation<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />30<br />Structure of Field<br />The whole common ground is in motion.<br />L22 uncertain and changing, taking on a life of its own<br />Distinctions between L12-L21 and L22 begin to break down<br />Environment<br />L21<br />L22<br />L12<br />L11<br />Characteristics of successful coping/response strategy in the type<br />No survival for systems acting alone<br />Collaborative strategies among dissimilar organizations in the field<br />Salient Links<br />L11, L12,L21, L22<br />Distinction between 1 and 2 begin to break down<br />
  31. 31. Prisoners of Language<br />1,000,000 cars<br />People will always want shoes<br />Classroom of the Future<br />Library with no books<br />5 Computers<br />June 11<br />31<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  32. 32. June 11<br />32<br />Who do you ask?<br />“ What do you teach a child at 5 years old<br />So that they will be IT Literate at 20?<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  33. 33. June 11<br />33<br />Core to the problem..<br />The different disciplines involved<br />The hardware doesn’t exist<br />The software hasn’t been written<br />Some of the key companies haven’t yet been formed<br />So who do you ask?<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  34. 34. June 11<br />34<br />Organisational culture<br />Specialists and generalists<br />Personal credibility<br />Tolerance of uncertainty<br />Story telling<br />Leadership<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  35. 35. Events<br />9/11<br />BSE<br />Coalition Government<br />Middle East: Tunisia, Egypt......<br />BLACK SWANS<br />June 11<br />35<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  36. 36. Data-driven Innovation/Co-creation<br />Web 2.0 bubble?<br />Sustainability of Free/Freemium..<br />Impact of Regulation, e.g. EU<br />Privacy, security<br />Business models?<br />Interdependencies...<br />IPR regimes<br />Everything has a history...?<br />Demographics....<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />36<br />
  37. 37. Thank You!<br />Any Questions?<br />My BCS blog: http://www.bcs.org/content/conBlog/20<br />June 11<br />37<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />