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Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
Horizon scanning ciktn
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Horizon scanning ciktn

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My presentation for Creative Industries KTN on intro to futures thinking

My presentation for Creative Industries KTN on intro to futures thinking

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  • 1. Horizon ScanningEngaging with the Future<br />Dr Chris Yapp<br />Chris_yapp@hotmail.co.uk<br />June 11<br />1<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 2. June 11<br />2<br />Futures Thinking<br />Contingency planning<br />Scenarios<br />Systems thinking<br />Complexity theory<br />Ethnographic Futures<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 3. What type of future?<br />Desired ( my plan)<br />Desirable ( Plan B)<br />Plausible ( time to rethink?)<br />Consensus ( my contrarian plan)<br />Unpleasant ( don’t want to go there)<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />3<br />
  • 4. Unpicking Assumptions<br />“The problem is that companies just don’t get Web 2.0.<br />The benefits are out there and the tools are cheap. Planning is expensive and wasteful. Get on with realising the benefits”<br />A Social Media guru<br />While at the same time...<br />Predicted 100% compound growth for 5 years<br />All existing services would still be there and free<br />Values of today’s teenagers would still be their values in 10 years<br />Governments wouldn’t regulate...<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />4<br />
  • 5. Dimensions of the Current Challenge<br />June 11<br />5<br />structural<br />Economic<br />Change<br />Market Step Change<br />Niche Portfolio<br />Reactive<br />Proactive<br />Strategic<br /> Response<br />Sitting Tight<br />Mopping up<br />cyclical<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 6. Dynamics of the Current Challenge<br />June 11<br />6<br />New Entrant<br />structural<br />Economic<br />Change<br />Market Step Change<br />Niche Portfolio<br />Reactive<br />Proactive<br />Strategic<br /> Response<br />Sitting Tight<br />Mopping up<br />cyclical<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 7. June 11<br />7<br />Problem Types<br />Do we know where<br />We are going?<br />YES<br /> Best practice<br />Scaling practice<br />TASK:<br />Operational<br />Management<br />TASK:<br />Process<br />Development<br />NO<br />YES<br />Do we know<br />How to get<br />There?<br />TASK:<br />Direction<br />Setting<br />TASK:<br />Concept<br />Creation<br />Next practice<br />Emerging practice<br />NO<br />After Eddie Obeng<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 8. Whose problem?<br />June 11<br />8<br />High<br />Political<br />System<br />Think<br />Tank<br />Complexity<br />Consultant<br />Wisdom of<br />The Crowds<br />Academic<br />/Expert<br />Low<br />Low<br />High<br />Uncertainty<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 9. What value?<br />June 11<br />9<br />High<br />Political<br />System<br />Think<br />Tank<br />Track record<br />Complexity<br />Ideas<br />Consultant<br />Wisdom of<br />The Crowds<br />Knowledge<br />Academic<br />/Expert<br />Low<br />Low<br />High<br />Uncertainty<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 10. During Step Change?<br />June 11<br />10<br />High<br />Political<br />System<br />Consultancy squeezed as limited track record<br />Think<br />Tank<br />Complexity<br />Consultant<br />Wisdom of<br />The Crowds<br />Academic<br />/Expert<br />Low<br />Low<br />High<br />Uncertainty<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 11. Horizon Scanning<br />'the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including (but not restricted to) those at the margins of current thinking and planning.'<br />Sigma Scan<br />Politics<br />Economics<br />Science and Technology<br />Environment<br />Society<br />June 11<br />11<br />Outsights-IPSOSMori<br />www.sigmascan.org<br />UK Office of Science and Technology<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 12. The Ways of not knowing<br />H<br />Knowledge<br />Of Outcome<br />Domain<br />Of Risk<br />Domain of<br />Uncertainty<br />Knowledge<br />Of Probability<br />L<br />H<br />Domain of<br />Ignorance<br />Domain of<br />Ambiguity<br />L<br />June 11<br />12<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 13. Why do we get it wrong?<br />Today!!!<br />Prisoners of Language<br />Timing<br />Unintended consequences<br />Sources of Innovation<br />Ask the wrong question/people?<br />Culture<br />Events<br />June 11<br />13<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 14. Not understanding today…<br />Societies taboos<br />Poor data for emerging trends<br />Examples<br />Police<br />Paedophiles<br />Education<br />International/global interconnectivity<br />June 11<br />14<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 15. Timing<br />Inevitability-Predictability<br />Risk and uncertainty<br />Unforseen barriers<br />Social factors<br />Long-term skill developments<br />June 11<br />15<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 16. Timing<br />“In the Future blind People will<br />Be able to drive cars”<br />June 11<br />16<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 17. Results<br />Probability 0.9 with some 0.2<br />Today with Resources: 1-3 years<br />In practice: 3-10 years<br />In reality: 10-100 years<br />June 11<br />17<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 18. Outsights Drivers of 21st century<br />1.   War, terrorism and insecurity<br />2.   Layers of power<br />3.   Economic and financial stability<br />4.   BRICs and emerging powers<br />5.   Five flows of globalisation<br />6.   Intellectual property<br />7.   Health<br />8.   Mobility<br />9.   Population<br />10. Trust and reputation <br />11. Values and beliefs<br />12. Identity<br />13. Consumerism<br />14. Networks and connectivity<br />15. Space<br />16. Science futures<br />17. Science and society<br />18. Resource availability<br />19. Climate change<br />20. Environmental degradation<br />21. Urbanisation <br />June 11<br />18<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 19. 1066 and All That<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />19<br />Roundheads<br />Right<br />Cavaliers<br />Wrong<br />Romantic<br />Repulsive<br />
  • 20. The Futurists Dilemma<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />20<br /> ?<br />Focussed<br />Theme<br />High<br />Credibility<br />Broad<br />Vision<br />Low <br />Credibility<br />Right<br />Wrong<br />
  • 21. A Rose by any other name..<br />Bouba<br />Kiki<br />June 11<br />21<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 22. Learning from the edge:Synesthesia<br />June 11<br />22<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 23. Emery and Trist<br />Causal Texture Theory<br />Four Textures<br />Placid Random<br />Placid Clustered<br />Disturbed Reactive<br />Turbulent<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />23<br />
  • 24. System and Environment<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />24<br />Environment<br />System<br />
  • 25. The Links<br />L11 Linking components of the system<br />L22 Linking components of the environment<br />L12 Linking the system to the environment (planning)<br />L21 Linking the environment to the system (learning)<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />25<br />
  • 26. The Four Links<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />26<br />Environment<br />L21<br />Organisation<br />L22<br />L12<br />L11<br />
  • 27. Placid Random<br />Organisation<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />27<br />Structure of Field<br />Resources, goals and noxiants <br />are randomly distributed in the<br />Field. “Perfect Market Conditions”<br />L11<br />Characteristics of successful coping<br />Response strategies in the type<br />Experience-based tactics<br />Local optimization in the “here and now”<br />Salient Links<br />L11<br />
  • 28. Placid Clustered<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />28<br />Environment<br />Structure of Field<br />Resources, goals and/or noxiants are located in advantageous (“high ground”) positions<br />L21<br />Organisation<br />Characteristics of successful coping/response strategy in the type<br />Strategizing for securing or accessing “high ground” locations and identifying right placing of outputs<br />Attending to distinctive competence and resource<br />Centralizing operations<br />L11<br />Salient Links<br />L11, L21<br />
  • 29. Disturbed Reactive<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />29<br />Environment<br />Structure of Field<br />Oligopoly<br />Similar organizations in head-to-head competition<br />More L12 and L21<br />L21<br />Organisation<br />L12<br />Characteristics of successful coping/response strategy in type<br />Game-based strategies<br />Communicating with others to influence inputs<br />Mounting operational “campaigns”<br />Rapid decision making<br />“coming to terms” with others sharing same field<br />L11<br />Salient Links<br />L11, L12,L21<br />
  • 30. Turbulence<br />Organisation<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />30<br />Structure of Field<br />The whole common ground is in motion.<br />L22 uncertain and changing, taking on a life of its own<br />Distinctions between L12-L21 and L22 begin to break down<br />Environment<br />L21<br />L22<br />L12<br />L11<br />Characteristics of successful coping/response strategy in the type<br />No survival for systems acting alone<br />Collaborative strategies among dissimilar organizations in the field<br />Salient Links<br />L11, L12,L21, L22<br />Distinction between 1 and 2 begin to break down<br />
  • 31. Prisoners of Language<br />1,000,000 cars<br />People will always want shoes<br />Classroom of the Future<br />Library with no books<br />5 Computers<br />June 11<br />31<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 32. June 11<br />32<br />Who do you ask?<br />“ What do you teach a child at 5 years old<br />So that they will be IT Literate at 20?<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 33. June 11<br />33<br />Core to the problem..<br />The different disciplines involved<br />The hardware doesn’t exist<br />The software hasn’t been written<br />Some of the key companies haven’t yet been formed<br />So who do you ask?<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 34. June 11<br />34<br />Organisational culture<br />Specialists and generalists<br />Personal credibility<br />Tolerance of uncertainty<br />Story telling<br />Leadership<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 35. Events<br />9/11<br />BSE<br />Coalition Government<br />Middle East: Tunisia, Egypt......<br />BLACK SWANS<br />June 11<br />35<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />
  • 36. Data-driven Innovation/Co-creation<br />Web 2.0 bubble?<br />Sustainability of Free/Freemium..<br />Impact of Regulation, e.g. EU<br />Privacy, security<br />Business models?<br />Interdependencies...<br />IPR regimes<br />Everything has a history...?<br />Demographics....<br />June 11<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />36<br />
  • 37. Thank You!<br />Any Questions?<br />My BCS blog: http://www.bcs.org/content/conBlog/20<br />June 11<br />37<br />CIKTN Chris Yapp<br />

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