Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
  • Like
Cgy it decisions june 2011
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Now you can save presentations on your phone or tablet

Available for both IPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

Cgy it decisions june 2011

  • 187 views
Published

Presentation at IT Decisions Conference on Scenario Planning and IT

Presentation at IT Decisions Conference on Scenario Planning and IT

Published in Business , Technology
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
187
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0

Actions

Shares
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. SAMI Consulting, St Andrews Management Institute
    6/29/2011
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
    1
    Scenario Planning
    And
    IT Decision Making
    Dr Chris Yapp
    Chris_yapp@hotmail.co.uk
    IT Decisions Conference
    June 2011
  • 2. SAMI
    Our offer
    To enhance the capability to anticipate
    To transform emergent thinking into strategy and implementation
    Consulting, executive education and research to deliver “robust decisions in uncertain times”
    “You can never plan the future by the past”
    Edmund Burke, 1729-1797
    6/29/2011
    2
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 3. Who we are
    • Formed in 1989
    Until 1999 based at St Andrews University
    Now virtual, owned by University & Fellows
    Celebrated our 20th anniversary at the Royal Society
    • People:
    8 Fellows,
    Director level experience in major organisations, public and private sectors,
    Consult, teach & write on business, policy, strategy and futures, leadership;
    7 Principals,
    Senior experience in major organisations, public and private sectors,
    Experts in aspects of futures, strategic planning and organisational development
    Also 46 Associates with specialist expertise eg
    Sectors: oil & gas, ICT, FS, construction, government, health, NGOs
    Functional specialists: innovation, creative spaces, audio-visual communication, occupational psychology, reconfiguration -----
    6/29/2011
    3
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 4. June 11
    4
    Futures Thinking
    Contingency planning
    Scenarios
    Systems thinking
    Complexity theory
    Ethnographic Futures
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 5. Imagine 2011 in 1981
    Technology
    WWW
    Mobile Phones
    iPOD/PAD/Phone
    DAB
    DTT,HDTV,3DTV
    Wii,Xbox360,PS3
    BUT AI?, VideoConf?, Concorde 2,Bullet trains, FTTH,Flying cars…
    What about
    Chelsea FC owned by a Russian
    BRICs
    Global Terrorism
    Climate Change
    Bollywood
    HIV/AIDS
  • 6. My Experience over 30 years
    20% will happen as consensus
    15% will happen but slower than consensus
    5% will happen faster than consensus
    15% will be superceded before it happens
    10% stalls/disappoints
    20% just doesn’t happen
    15% is off Radar
    6/29/2011
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
    6
  • 7. Three Horizons
  • 8. Repeating Problems
    Standards Wars
    WIIFM
    Infrastructure lags
    Long-term capacity developments
    June 11
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
    8
  • 9. What type of future?
    Desired ( my plan)
    Desirable ( Plan B)
    Plausible ( time to rethink?)
    Consensus ( my contrarian plan)
    Unpleasant ( don’t want to go there)
    June 11
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
    9
  • 10. Beware…
    Modern Myths
    This time it’s different…
    Putting New in front of everything..
    Everything has a history
    Revolution or cohort effects
    Roadblocks (IPv6?)
  • 11. Unpicking Assumptions
    “The problem is that companies just don’t get Web 2.0.
    The benefits are out there and the tools are cheap. Planning is expensive and wasteful. Get on with realising the benefits”
    A Social Media guru
    While at the same time...
    Predicted 100% compound growth for 5 years
    All existing services would still be there and free
    Values of today’s teenagers would still be their values in 10 years
    Governments wouldn’t regulate...
    June 11
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
    11
  • 12. 1066 and All That
    June 11
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
    12
    Roundheads
    Right
    Cavaliers
    Wrong
    Romantic
    Repulsive
  • 13. The Futurists Dilemma
    June 11
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
    13
    ?
    Focussed
    Theme
    High
    Credibility
    Broad
    Vision
    Low
    Credibility
    Right
    Wrong
  • 14. Dimensions of the Current Challenge
    June 11
    14
    structural
    Economic
    Change
    Market Step Change
    Niche Portfolio
    Reactive
    Proactive
    Strategic
    Response
    Sitting Tight
    Mopping up
    cyclical
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 15. Dynamics of the Current Challenge
    June 11
    15
    New Entrant
    structural
    Economic
    Change
    Market Step Change
    Niche Portfolio
    Reactive
    Proactive
    Strategic
    Response
    Sitting Tight
    Mopping up
    cyclical
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 16. June 11
    16
    Problem Types
    Do we know where
    We are going?
    YES
    Best practice
    Scaling practice
    TASK:
    Operational
    Management
    TASK:
    Process
    Development
    NO
    YES
    Do we know
    How to get
    There?
    TASK:
    Direction
    Setting
    TASK:
    Concept
    Creation
    Next practice
    Emerging practice
    NO
    After Eddie Obeng
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 17. Whose Problem?
    June 11
    17
    High
    Political
    System
    Think
    Tank
    Complexity
    Consultant
    Wisdom of
    The Crowds
    Academic
    /Expert
    Low
    Low
    High
    Uncertainty
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 18. What value?
    June 11
    18
    High
    Political
    System
    Think
    Tank
    Track record
    Complexity
    Ideas
    Consultant
    Wisdom of
    The Crowds
    Knowledge
    Academic
    /Expert
    Low
    Low
    High
    Uncertainty
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 19. During Step Change?
    June 11
    19
    High
    Political
    System
    Consultancy squeezed as limited track record
    Think
    Tank
    Complexity
    Consultant
    Wisdom of
    The Crowds
    Academic
    /Expert
    Low
    Low
    High
    Uncertainty
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 20. Timing
    “In the Future blind People will
    Be able to drive cars”
    June 11
    20
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 21. Results
    Probability 0.9 with some 0.2
    Today with Resources: 1-3 years
    In practice: 3-10 years
    In reality: 10-100 years
    June 11
    21
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 22. Why do we get it wrong?
    Today!!!
    Prisoners of Language
    Timing
    Unintended consequences
    Sources of Innovation
    Ask the wrong question/people?
    Culture
    Events
    June 11
    22
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 23. Not understanding today…
    Societies taboos
    Bubbles
    Poor data for emerging trends
    Examples
    Police
    Paedophiles
    Education
    International/global interconnectivity
    June 11
    23
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 24. Timing
    Inevitability-Predictability
    Risk and uncertainty
    Unforseen barriers
    Social factors
    Long-term skill developments
    June 11
    24
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 25. Sources of Innovation
    Manufacturer Active Process
    User Active process
    Source: Eric Von Hippel, MIT
  • 26. Innovation
    Open Innovation has a 200 year history
    Innovation with lead users preceded the internet
    Professional solve their own problems
    Big shift in computing is that consumers not industry in the driving seat.
  • 27. A Rose by any other name..
    Bouba
    Kiki
    June 11
    27
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 28. Learning from the edge:Synesthesia
    June 11
    28
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 29. Prisoners of Language
    1,000,000 cars
    People will always want shoes
    Classroom of the Future
    Library with no books
    5 Computers
    June 11
    29
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 30. June 11
    30
    Who do you ask?
    “ What do you teach a child at 5 years old
    So that they will be IT Literate at 20?
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 31. June 11
    31
    Core to the problem..
    The different disciplines involved
    The hardware doesn’t exist
    The software hasn’t been written
    Some of the key companies haven’t yet been formed
    So who do you ask?
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 32. June 11
    32
    Organisational culture
    Specialists and generalists
    Personal credibility
    Tolerance of uncertainty
    Story telling
    Leadership
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 33. Events
    9/11
    BSE
    Coalition Government
    Middle East: Tunisia, Egypt......
    BLACK SWANS
    June 11
    33
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 34. Uncertainties Today
    Web 2.0 bubble?
    IPv4 to IPv6 transition
    Sustainability of Free/Freemium..
    Impact of Regulation, e.g. EU
    Privacy, security
    Business models?
    Interdependencies...
    IPR regimes
    Everything has a history...?
    Demographics....
    Energy Security
    Public/Private Clouds
    June 11
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
    34
  • 35. Overoptimism or hype?
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 36. Hofstadter’s Law
    It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law
    29/06/2011
    36
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk
  • 37. Thank You!
    Any Questions?
    My BCS blog: http://www.bcs.org/content/conBlog/20
    Twitter: @chris_yapp
    June 11
    37
    www.samiconsulting.co.uk