Future of HCI:
Intelligent User Interfaces as Agents of Change
Dr Christopher Khalil
News Digital Media
7/2/2009 1

Future is hard to predict
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
-- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."
-- Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.
"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a
means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us."
-- Western Union internal memo, 1876.
"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out."
-- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.

Evolution of Man

Evolution slow

We have a Stone Age brain
The Brains we are born with today are
practically identical to those of Cro-
Magnon man of 40,000 years ago
“Since the time of Cro-Magnon man there
has been no marked increase in man’s
cranial capacity and probably little or no
increase in his inherent intellectual
ability… the intellectual evolution of the
race, no less than physical, has slowed
down until it has practically stopped”
The Direction of Human Evolution
By Edwin Grant Conklin

If Cro-Magnon man was around
today
He’d be just like us

Facing lots of information
http://www.softwaremag.com/images/2008-07-08/2008-07-08-cont-mgmt-fig1.jpg

Hitting us fast
http://www.theequitykicker.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/twitter-curve.jpg

But with a Stone Age brain
Cro-Magnon man met as many people in year as we do in one day, PLUS all the
information we have to deal with
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3113/2595830716_1f928cc2a3.jpg

It’s like
Running the Internet
It’s possible but not necessarily desirable
On a Commodore 64

Information is:
incessant, relentless
& everywhere

How can we cope?

We augment
I can’t see well

The physical
I can’t get to places quickly

Computer Augments the Memory
Who remembers phone numbers
nowadays?

Computer Augments the Memory
Anyone else think their spelling has
deteriorated?
“We shape our tools, whereafter our tools shape us.” – Marshal Macluhan

Yet, augmentation is failing
Direct Manipulation is over 30 years old
Apple Lisa: 1984
Xerox Alto: 1973

Hasn’t changed much
Windows 7: 2009

Makes us do unnecessary
interactions
GOAL: I want to store information for later retrieval:
‘Save’
1. Open Save ‘Dialog’:
2. Find appropriate file location (multiple appropriate places)
3. Place file
‘Retrieve’
1. ‘Open’ dialog
2. Attempt recall at where you placed it
3. Search multiple places/versions
4. ‘Open File’

Not everything has a GUI
Internet of things: Ambient Intelligence
http://www.w3.org/2007/Talks/03-MW20/BigPicture.jpg

Augmented Reality/ UBICOMP
http://www.crunchbase.com/assets/images/original/0002/7070/27070v2.jpg
http://www.howstuffworks.com/augmented-reality.htm

Visual Bandwidth Limited
Interfaces
• Mobile
• How to perform
complex interactions?
• On the move?

Another Metaphor
From inanimate objects:
To: Assistants

Indirect Management
An Intelligent Agent is an autonomous
entity which observes and acts upon an
environment and directs its activity
towards achieving goals
Knows about you | Gets better with experience | Understands context | Proactive

Been tried before

Why now?
semantic web computing power
recommendation engines
social connectivity
location aware networked
natural language processing multi-channel integration
speech recognition planning and reasoning capabilities

Early Example: CALO
DARPA Project - CALO: Cognitive Assistant that Learns and Organizes
Gigantic Join: Composing and Integrating Data across Applications
Where should I go on holiday?
How do I get the best fare?
What What is it like there?
How Travel
Travel Where Services
Interests
Who
Places Where should I stay?
to go What
People who
have been there
What do I need to know about it?
Photos, blogs, news stories
http://caloproject.sri.com/

Agents leverage their Networks
Me

Overcomes some problems
Ambient Intelligence:
• ‘Keep it warm in here, stock up on food’
Mobile on-the-go:
• ‘Find me a cheap flight that leaves in 2
hours’
Augmented:
• ‘I know you hate driving in the CBD so I’m
going to try and find a better route, is that
ok?’

10,20,50,100,500 years…
Technology will come
What’s the problem?

Trust
Disruptive technologies bring fear – loss of control

Gen Z
Never known a life without the internet
Never known a life without mobiles

What for us
Wireframes: Specify literal behaviour Contracts: Define boundaries
•Closer to Service Design than IxD
•Emergent System Intelligence
•Unpredictable

HCI or HCSymbiosis
Symbiosis of human/machine is not coming, its
already here
Humans splintering their personality – Avatars live
on in virtual world once they have ‘disconnected’

Human Evolution Pt 2
Symbiogenesis
The biologist Lynn Margulis contends that symbiosis
is a major driving force behind evolution.
She considers Darwin's notion of evolution, driven by
competition, as incomplete and claims that
evolution is strongly based on co-operation,
interaction, and mutual dependence among
organisms.
According to Margulis and Dorion Sagan:
"Life did not take over the globe by combat, but by
networking.”

Agents of Change
UI Agents could be agents of change:
For better:
For Worse:

Thanks
Email: christopherkhalil@yahoo.co.uk
Twitter: chris_khalil
Web: www.chriskhalil.com