0
Building Catastrophe Models using
Open Data and Open Source
Chris Ewing
Aon Benfield
1
Chris Ewing
Aon Benfield
Building Catastrophe Models using
Open Data and Open Source
2
Overview
1. What is reinsurance and
catastrophe modelling?
2. Building catastrophe models
 Open Source, Open Data
 Mod...
What is Reinsurance?
 Reinsurance is simply insurance
for insurers - it allows the insurer
to remove risk
 Natural catas...
4
 Aon Benfield is an industry leader in treaty,
facultative and capital markets, and act as
reinsurance intermediaries a...
What is Impact Forecasting & ELEMENTS?
 Impact Forecasting Team
– Catastrophe model developers
– Independent, transparent...
6
Vulnerability Exposure
Hazard
RISK
Peril Frequency and Severity
EQ shaking intensity
Wind strength
Flood depth inundatio...
7
 To help understand the risk faced by
corporations to natural catastrophes
 To help with pricing catastrophe cover
 D...
8
 Most insurers and reinsurers and
regulators have some form of (basic)
catastrophe model
 Catastrophe Models are requi...
The 3 opens
 For Model Development
 For Visualisation
Model development 1
 Creating model components (Hazard,
Vulnerability, Exposure)
 Developing model components often
fast...
I = 5I = 3I = 5.5
I = 0
I = 12I = 8
I = 0
Calculating hazard footprints
90%
Commercial
building
9%
1%
I = 10
I = 0
 Which...
Model development 2
Cumulative Distribution Function
(CDF)
EventID, X, Y , Intensity X,Y, Admin Levels, Weight
(Urban, Lan...
Model development 3
Flood extent (in this case PERILS)
Postal codes
Master table – postal code
Model development 4
 Open Data
 Free but different levels of freeness
– Personal, Educational, Commercial, etc.
 Use de...
Model development 5
 Exposure / hazard data
 Proprietary (not free)
– LandScan
– GfK GeoMarketing
– Tom Tom
– Ordnance S...
Visualisation 1
 ELEMENTS Explorer
– Visualise the background of the
catastrophe model (ELEMENTS)
– Map hazard, exposure,...
Visualisation 3
 (Some proprietary GIS tools we use)….
– ESRI ArcGIS
– Pitney Bowes Spectrum (Geocoding)
– Global Mapper
...
Making models ‘open for business’ 1
 Catastrophe model software
– Generally proprietary and black-box
– Cannot see ‘under...
Making models ‘open for business’ 2
 In ELEMENTS
– All model components are pre-calculated
– Change a model by changing a...
Making models ‘open for business’ 3
 ELEMENTS used within Aon Benfield and within insurance and reinsurance
companies……
...
Summary
 Catastrophe models allow you to better understand your risk
 The components can be built using Open Data and Op...
Thank you
Chris Ewing
Impact Forecasting
Aon Benfield
Building Catastrophe Models using Open Data and Open Source
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Building Catastrophe Models using Open Data and Open Source

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The presentation looks at catastrophe modelling before showing how Impact Forecasting use open data and open source to build models and visualise model inputs and outputs.

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  • Open Source Software – the source code (the programming code which was used to develop the software) is available to all. Usually there is a collaborative aspect to this type of software and a developer community is actively adding to the code behind the software. An example in the GIS world is the GIS software www.qgis.org. You can also find much Open Source material at www.github.com. The key organisation behind open source geospatial software is www.osgeo.org. Quite often Open Source software is free (but not always!). Also see www.foss4g.org. often Open Source software makes use of Open Standards……Open Standards – covers the development of a set of data standards which allows different software (both proprietary and open-source) to transfer data easily and quickly. In the GIS world, the www.opengeospatialconsortium.org maintain a set of geographic information standards such as WMS, WFS and KML (you know as in Google Earth KML). Open Standards should allow easier extraction, transfer and loading of data as it follows a defined format.Open Data – is free data essentially. There has been a big move in the US, UK and throughout most of the western world to open up data to the general public, especially data which governments collect (see data.gov and data.gov.uk). In the UK, the Ordnance Survey has released OS Open Data which is a set of freely available geographic information including terrain data, place data, postcodes, roads, buildings etc.
  • Transcript of "Building Catastrophe Models using Open Data and Open Source"

    1. 1. 0 Building Catastrophe Models using Open Data and Open Source Chris Ewing Aon Benfield
    2. 2. 1 Chris Ewing Aon Benfield Building Catastrophe Models using Open Data and Open Source
    3. 3. 2 Overview 1. What is reinsurance and catastrophe modelling? 2. Building catastrophe models  Open Source, Open Data  Model development  Visualisation 3. Making models ‘Open for Business’ 4. Summary
    4. 4. What is Reinsurance?  Reinsurance is simply insurance for insurers - it allows the insurer to remove risk  Natural catastrophes can produce large losses for insurers and are one type of risk where reinsurance is needed  Aon Benfield are reinsurance intermediaries (brokers)
    5. 5. 4  Aon Benfield is an industry leader in treaty, facultative and capital markets, and act as reinsurance intermediaries and capital advisors  Within Aon Benfield, Analytics offers clients catastrophe management, actuarial, rating agency advisory and risk and capital strategy expertise  Within Analytics, Impact Forecasting develop catastrophe models that help analyse the financial implications of catastrophic events What do we do?
    6. 6. What is Impact Forecasting & ELEMENTS?  Impact Forecasting Team – Catastrophe model developers – Independent, transparent, open, modular and bespoke models – Natural and man-made perils – Filling gaps and main perils – Global team (60+)  ELEMENTS platform – Runs our models and 3rd party models – Visualisation: uncertainty & mapping – 20+ programmers over 4 years – Distributed to and run by re/insurers and Aon Benfield colleagues
    7. 7. 6 Vulnerability Exposure Hazard RISK Peril Frequency and Severity EQ shaking intensity Wind strength Flood depth inundation Blast radius Risk Portfolio Data Structure values Contents values Time Element Number of people Deductibles / Limits Reinsurance Hazard Susceptibility Structural classifications Occupancy descriptions Secondary Characteristics Loss Calculation What is Catastrophe Modelling?
    8. 8. 7  To help understand the risk faced by corporations to natural catastrophes  To help with pricing catastrophe cover  Development of cat models following: – European windstorms 1987 / 1990 – Hurricane Andrew 1992 – World Trade Centre terrorist attacks – Hurricane Katrina 2005  Catastrophe Models also cover Terrorism, Pandemic Influenza, Workers Compensation and Crop Why use Catastrophe Modelling?
    9. 9. 8  Most insurers and reinsurers and regulators have some form of (basic) catastrophe model  Catastrophe Models are required for regulatory requirements e.g. Solvency II in EEC  3 commercial modelling companies (AIR, EQECAT, RMS)  Aon Benfield Impact Forecasting develops ELEMENTS - our in-house catastrophe model Who uses Catastrophe Models?
    10. 10. The 3 opens  For Model Development  For Visualisation
    11. 11. Model development 1  Creating model components (Hazard, Vulnerability, Exposure)  Developing model components often faster and cheaper using Open-Source software  Hazard examples…. – Creating EQ footprint maps – Python (matplotlib and basemap) – Creating 100,000s of EQ footprints – Python – Creating a pre-calculated consolidated EQ footprint table (Master Table) – Python / R X VIII VII VI VI VII VIII IX X Intensity VI VI VII VII X X X IX IXIX IX Comparison of the calculated seismic intensities (rupture source modelling) vs macroseismic map (source: Ozmen, 2000)
    12. 12. I = 5I = 3I = 5.5 I = 0 I = 12I = 8 I = 0 Calculating hazard footprints 90% Commercial building 9% 1% I = 10 I = 0  Which areas are affected in the admin zone?  Is there any insured exposure?  Calculating footprints – the intensity of shaking felt Mw 7.6 Mw 7.2
    13. 13. Model development 2 Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) EventID, X, Y , Intensity X,Y, Admin Levels, Weight (Urban, Land Scan, no weight) Event information Event Footprint 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 Hazard CDF EventID GeoID 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1 40006020 7.5 7.2 7.0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 40005020 8.2 8.0 7.5 7.1 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 0
    14. 14. Model development 3 Flood extent (in this case PERILS) Postal codes Master table – postal code
    15. 15. Model development 4  Open Data  Free but different levels of freeness – Personal, Educational, Commercial, etc.  Use depends on model requirements – detailed scenario model vs. country wide probabilistic model  Many sources of global free/low-cost geospatial data – check out http://freegisdata.rtwilson.com/ ! Source: Gray, 2011
    16. 16. Model development 5  Exposure / hazard data  Proprietary (not free) – LandScan – GfK GeoMarketing – Tom Tom – Ordnance Survey  Open (free) – SRTM – terrain – Vs30 – earthquakes – CORINE – floods – Ordnance Survey Open Data – OSM Source: NASA (2013) Source: USGS (2013)
    17. 17. Visualisation 1  ELEMENTS Explorer – Visualise the background of the catastrophe model (ELEMENTS) – Map hazard, exposure, loss – Built using GeoServer and Open Layers – OSM inside – Using WMS, SLD etc.  For automated visualisation tasks (e.g. viewing losses for 1,000s of portfolios) – Open-source allows you to get into the nuts and bolts – You can extend components (e.g. OpenLayers/GeoServer map printing)
    18. 18. Visualisation 3  (Some proprietary GIS tools we use)…. – ESRI ArcGIS – Pitney Bowes Spectrum (Geocoding) – Global Mapper – Google Earth
    19. 19. Making models ‘open for business’ 1  Catastrophe model software – Generally proprietary and black-box – Cannot see ‘underneath’ the model  ELEMENTS is different: – The components are open, viewable and customisable – hazard, vulnerability and exposure can be modified Source: opensourceway
    20. 20. Making models ‘open for business’ 2  In ELEMENTS – All model components are pre-calculated – Change a model by changing a table / file ELEMENTS Model components Haz. Exp. Vuln. Portfolio
    21. 21. Making models ‘open for business’ 3  ELEMENTS used within Aon Benfield and within insurance and reinsurance companies……  Potential other users could include….. – Government agencies – Emergency planners – Emergency responders – Humanitarian agencies and NGOs – Commercial businesses – Academic institutions – ….the list is endless!  Combining open and proprietary data and software could be the most effective solution
    22. 22. Summary  Catastrophe models allow you to better understand your risk  The components can be built using Open Data and Open Source – Open Data sources are especially useful for country-wide probabilistic models where proprietary data may be too expensive – Open Source can help speed up big data tasks  Visualisation is key to understanding model inputs and outputs – Open Source tools have helped with this – Open Standards have helped with map styling etc.  Catastrophe models are used in insurance but could be applied to many different sectors and industries (emergency planning etc.) – We’re open for business!
    23. 23. Thank you Chris Ewing Impact Forecasting Aon Benfield

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