200603 future it-professionals


Published on

Future Era of IT Professionals...

Published in: Career, Technology, Business
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

200603 future it-professionals

  1. 1. The Future of IT Professionals (if they have one) OTUG March 21, 2006 Dr. dave west
  2. 2. Good news (Bad news) <ul><li>There will be a future (the threat of avian programmer flu pandemic has been vastly exaggerated) </li></ul><ul><li>The dot com recession has ended (excepting a few “Googles”, the dot com excitement is largely gone as well) </li></ul><ul><li>IT jobs are increasing in number (mostly offshore and/or via HB1 visa increases – most of you are not smart enough for Bill) </li></ul><ul><li>34% of all software projects are completed and used by customer (usually late and over budget) </li></ul><ul><li>Platforms are smaller, faster, cheaper (still powered by Windows) </li></ul><ul><li>Agile / Lean development is sweeping the industry (at least 14% of all IT shops use some agile / lean practices) </li></ul>
  3. 3. Survey Says! <ul><li>2500 sent, 1427 returned (Feb/March 2005) </li></ul><ul><li>43% would choose profession again </li></ul><ul><li>5% made the world a better place </li></ul><ul><li>74% salary stagnant / declining </li></ul><ul><li>63% felt negative consequences from off-shoring </li></ul><ul><li>9% satisfied with day-to-day process / method </li></ul><ul><li>21% take great pride in the quality of their work </li></ul>
  4. 4. Baseline 2006 <ul><li>IT Doesn’t matter </li></ul><ul><li>IT professionals are commodities </li></ul><ul><li>Management / User perspective </li></ul><ul><li>Popular Perceptions </li></ul>
  5. 5. IT Doesn’t Matter <ul><li>Nicholas G Carr, Harvard Business Review, 2003 </li></ul><ul><li>Main arguments </li></ul><ul><ul><li>IT is cheap and ubiquitous </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>IT is a utility – no longer of strategic value </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>IT management should </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Spend less </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Follow, don’t lead </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on vulnerabilities, not opportunities </li></ul></ul></ul>
  6. 6. IT doesn’t Matter - Rebuttal <ul><li>John Seeley Brown, John Hagel III </li></ul><ul><li>IT by itself, rarely if ever, confers strategic advantage </li></ul><ul><li>IT is inherently strategic because it creates possibilities and options </li></ul><ul><li>Main points </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Extracting value from IT requires innovations in business practices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>IT’s economic impact comes from incremental innovations rather than “big bang” initiatives (“fiasco” of ERP / CRM projects) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The strategic impact of IT investments comes from the cumulative effect of sustained initiatives to innovate business practices in the near term (emergence) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Strategic value comes from “radical incrementalism” </li></ul>
  7. 7. IT Doesn’t Matter - Aside <ul><li>Done versus said </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Few companies welcome (foster) innovation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Most companies act as if they believe that new tech equates to new strategy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Most companies, and professionals, reject new ideas, new possibilities: instead adopt “syntactic veneer” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bang! Is still norm </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Solutions” that inhibit / prevent innovation in business practice preferred over those that enable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Thriving on chaos” is still largely a corporate business myth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ CYA is our most valuable resource.” </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. IT Professionals are Commodities <ul><li>Outsourcing (Offshore) – 700 pound gorilla </li></ul><ul><li>What </li></ul><ul><ul><li>IT – data entry, programming, OS / network admin / DBA, support </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Other – back office, clinical trials, applications and claims processing, filings, market research, legal (scientific research) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Why </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost (64%), productivity (8%), turnaround speed (3%), quality (3%) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We’ll adopt Java because everyone else is, so there will always be a lot of java programmers and we can get them at a rate of a dime a dozen </li></ul><ul><li>Fungible, components to development teams (method used to force square pegs into round holes) </li></ul><ul><li>HR restrictions – individual differences are impossible, distinctions only on “objective” criteria, e.g. certificates </li></ul>
  9. 9. Management / User Perspective <ul><li>Management </li></ul><ul><ul><li>IT “necessary evil” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost of doing business </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hard to manage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Contributes little to bottom line </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Users </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“irritating tax levied an almost every aspect of life” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Why Things Don’t Work </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Popular Perceptions <ul><li>Geek Squad </li></ul><ul><li>CS is hard, boring, and “done in India” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>University enrollments dropped 10-50% / year the past five years </li></ul></ul><ul><li>It’s (still) a boy thing </li></ul><ul><li>Cannot name / identify “good” software </li></ul><ul><li>“bad” software is everywhere </li></ul><ul><li>An absence of heroes / heroines / mythic figures </li></ul>
  11. 11. Where did we go wrong <ul><li>IT is the computer </li></ul><ul><li>Bad! Bad human! </li></ul><ul><li>If it cannot be measured it is not real </li></ul><ul><li>Control, centralization, integration </li></ul><ul><li>Greatest generation </li></ul>
  12. 12. IT is the computer <ul><li>Dahlbom & Mathiassen – The Future of Our Profession </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mechanistic dominant </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Focus = artifact, approach = construction, role = engineer </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Formality (of definition / specification, process) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Need more romanticism </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Focus = culture, approach = interpretation, role = facilitator </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>MDA - epitome of the abstracted machine </li></ul>
  13. 13. Bad!! Bad human! <ul><li>Original sin </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Are humans innately evil but capable of redemption, or innately good but subject to corruption? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Taylorism and scientific management </li></ul><ul><li>Automatic programming – CASE / repository - formal software engineering </li></ul>
  14. 14. If it cannot be measured it is not real <ul><li>Productivity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>LOC / developer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stories completed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tests passed </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Quality </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Defects / LOC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Passed tests </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(elegance, durability, suitability, likeability) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>CMM, ISO9000, … </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Delivered software statistically identical to all other software </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Control, Centralization, Integration <ul><li>Examples </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Architecture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>55% of all programs use PSC architecture </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>30% have no architecture </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Database </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ERP / CRM </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Monolithic, expensive to change, example of Bang! Solutions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Business straight jackets </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Greatest Generation <ul><li>Mobilization </li></ul><ul><ul><li>overnight armies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Manhattan project </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Big bang thinking </li></ul></ul><ul><li>GI Bill </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Education factories </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. Alternative Future – Stay the Course <ul><li>Dilbert </li></ul><ul><li>Commoditization </li></ul><ul><ul><li>blue vest with a smiley button for all </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Certification </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No programmer left behind (It’s the test, stupid!) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Google envy </li></ul>
  18. 18. Alternative Future – radical realization <ul><li>Key ideas </li></ul><ul><li>Change of focus </li></ul><ul><li>Redefine profession </li></ul><ul><li>Re-conceptualize the professional </li></ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><li>The “C” word </li></ul>
  19. 19. Key ideas <ul><li>Silver Bullet – better people </li></ul><ul><li>Methodology – iterative / incremental </li></ul><ul><li>Process – applied reflection </li></ul><ul><li>Software Engineering – simplest thing that could possibly work </li></ul><ul><li>Objects – anthropomorphization </li></ul><ul><li>Agile / XP – story </li></ul><ul><li>Lean - only that which adds value </li></ul>
  20. 20. Objects and Stories <ul><li>Object = character </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fundamental unit of decomposition and understanding – NOT programming </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Story </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cast of characters </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Context (snapshot of characters in context) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interactions, communications (arbitrarily bounded – e.g. index card rule) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Result = changes in the state[s] of characters or context </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Historian by Elizabeth Kostova </li></ul>
  21. 21. Change of Focus <ul><li>System – not artifact </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Complicated (dead) versus complex (living) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reality construction </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Radical incrementalism </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Story not project </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nominal expense not capital improvement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Incremental return on investment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Domain - not implementation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Problem understanding defines solution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>All implementations are “trivial” </li></ul></ul>
  22. 22. Redefine Profession <ul><li>Definition – metaphor </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Medicine, horticulture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>sacred (opposite of profane) responsibility </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Do no harm </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Eschew intrusion (e.g. surgery) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Focus / pay attention to side effects - holism </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Practice </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reclaim ownership of tools, skills, practices </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Community </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Guild, (cult), peer derived reputation, culture </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. Re-conceptualize the Professional <ul><li>Deshi, sensei, master, arhat </li></ul><ul><li>By their works shall you know them </li></ul><ul><li>Linda Evans, not Sigourney Weaver </li></ul><ul><li>Grasshopper, Paladin, Dan Ingalls </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Situational awareness </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Right (non-attached) action </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>catalyst </li></ul></ul>
  24. 24. Education <ul><li>Experience based – studio </li></ul><ul><li>Iterative, incremental </li></ul><ul><li>Just-in-time, theory last </li></ul><ul><li>One-room schoolhouse </li></ul><ul><li>Teams </li></ul><ul><li>Retrospective / introspective </li></ul>
  25. 25. What we are doing in NM
  26. 26. The “C” word <ul><li>Culture (not certification) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shared world view </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Common mythology (including heroic figures) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Enculturation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Schools (ashrams) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Professional society – organization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Conferences </li></ul></ul>
  27. 27. OTUG – Agile 2006 - OOPSLA <ul><li>Separation (opening prayer) </li></ul><ul><li>Re-identification, Re-recognition (rituals, hymns, testimony) </li></ul><ul><li>Re-purposing (homily – story about us) </li></ul><ul><li>Education / growth (sermon) </li></ul><ul><li>Affirmation (ritual, hymns, responsorials) </li></ul><ul><li>Re-integration (closing prayer, socialization) </li></ul>