Thesis Defense Presentation

11 November 2009 Chris Hippner

Quantitative metrics
Spending
Employment
Hypothesis:
$100 billion United States Dollars
500,000 persons

NOT YET POSSIBLE
Method does not exist for international comparisons
Assumes:
Function, roles, & missions are different
WRONG FEATURES
Common features:
Collection/analysis
Covert action
Counterintelligence
National wealth v. security concerns?

Cold War Paradigm
Civil-Military Relations
Non-Western
Inconsistent/qualitative variables

Annual reports/disclosers
Domestic requirements
Pro: Quantitative
Con: Irregular reporting
All intel. Components?

Brassey’s Intelligence Yearbook
Case study format
Different attributes
Intelligence Resource Program
Collected data

Design
Descriptive research
Intelligence spending
Intelligence personnel
Gross Domestic Product
Population
195 nation-states
Standardizing
Spending units
US Dollar
2008 = baseline year
Personnel definitions
Full time equivalents
No contractors

DATA RETRIEVAL
Internet Sources
Traditional Sources
Considerations
Documents in foreign languages
Webpage credibility
ESTIMATION PROCESS
Spending
Create ratio
Average ratios
Apply
Personnel
Establish similarity
Set ranges
Create average
Apply

Finding
Total world intel. spending = $ 106,961,604,308.01
US spends most = 65%
US proportion of world GDP = 23.5%
US spending is disproportion

Finding
20 countries spend 93% of total
Their GDP = 69% world GDP
175 countries spend remaining $7.8 billion
Their GDP = 31% world GDP
Top 10% average point-to-point variation
Top 10% vs. Bottom 90%

Exponential Trend R 2 Value = 0.940 Power Trend R 2 Value = 0.835 Results (cont’d)

Affect of US on Estimating Population (US Included) Population (US Excluded) Average Spending $548,521,047.73 $164,750,537.67 Standard Deviation $5,389,872,754.45 $576,959,565.88 Ratios for Estimating 2/947 1/442 Percent Difference of Estimates 5.22%

Finding
Total world intelligence employment =
1,130,104
Russia spends = $18,902.70 per person
US spends = $520,833 per person
Total: 1,130,104 World 814,104 72%

= Top Intelligence Employers

Top 20 employers =
61% of total
Bottom 175 employer = 39% of total
Interesting…
Top intel. spenders ≠ top intel. employers
Only 6 countries are both

= Top Intelligence Spender and Employer

Found 246 different intel. agencies
Average intel. agency per country = 1.28
Financial intel. units generally excluded

CRITIQUE
Search methods
Alternative estimations methods
Intel. spending & Employment
Assumed linear Relationship
FUTURE RESEARCH
Continuous Regular reporting
Intel. spending & employment relationship
Employment components
Analysts, Linguists, support staff

Contact: Chris Hippner

Thesis Defense Presentation

by Chris Hippner

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