Deconstructing the brian paradox


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This is the slide deck from Brian Madden and Chetan Venkatesh's joint session at Briforum 2010 Chicago on The Brian Madden Paradox

The session covers a discussion of technology trends that are shaping Desktop Virtualization

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  • Make a point about the plumbing being common
  • Examples of Virtualization: Stock Certificates to Electronic Trading Hard Currency to electronic funds Mortgages to Insurance Backed Mortgage securities Blockbuster to Netflix
  • Deconstructing the brian paradox

    1. 1. Deconstructing the Brian Paradox VDI is here ready or not The manic Logic of VDI Chetan Venkatesh CTO & Founder Brian Madden Guru Briforum 2010
    2. 2. What is Brian’s paradox <ul><li>VDI is poor on session density </li></ul><ul><li>Inherent VDI limitations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Large Storage footprint </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Large Datacenter footprint </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expensive Infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Given the limitations of VDI </li></ul><ul><ul><li>90% of the world will use Client based Virtualization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>VDI will remain a niche use case </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. DESKTOP COMPUTING MODELS CIRCA 2009 Physical Desktop Physical Desktop on Virtual Storage TS based desktop & remote applications Virtual Desktop on VDI Virtual Desktop on Type 2 Client Virtual Desktop on Type 1 Client
    4. 4. <ul><li>VDI – 65% </li></ul><ul><li>TS-5% </li></ul><ul><li>Client based Virtualization-20% </li></ul><ul><li>Physical Desktops – 10% </li></ul><ul><li>* In the typical Fortune 500 Enterprise </li></ul><ul><li>@Based on informal poll of 10 F500 CIOs by Chetan </li></ul>DESKTOP COMPUTING MODELS CIRCA 2015* @
    5. 5. 3 themes to explore <ul><li>How personal computing has changed </li></ul><ul><li>Moore’s law and its impact on the Datacenter </li></ul><ul><li>Deployment models </li></ul>
    6. 6. “ Personal” Computing is different now! cp/m Ms-dos netware Windows 95-2000-XP Linux KDE/Gnome Mac OSX iphone – iPad Android
    7. 7. Users don’t care about our version of “Personalization”* * At least not the way we think about it today
    8. 8. The web changes personalization FB Connect/OpenSocial Roaming Profile/Appsense/Res Entitlements Policies Security Application subscriptions profile
    9. 9. The web changes Apps That’s a cool App! I’m going to subscribe to it
    10. 10. And makes the Desktop less important Rich Profile & Context of what I like & what I trust Rigid set of policies On what I can do Social Cloud Enterprise Cloud
    11. 11. Vectors for 2015 <ul><li>Rich Content & social applications will hasten the demise of relic PCs from being the primary computer </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumption oriented devices will be the users primary “personal computer” – i.e. tablets, netbooks and smart phones </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Windows will become middleware – simply a connection between users and enterprise apps. Windows is a place to run apps </li></ul></ul>> +
    12. 12. Vectors for 2015 <ul><li>Users will develop a far more sophisticated definition of “personality” and force Enterprise to adopt it </li></ul><ul><li>Social Graph gleaned from: </li></ul><ul><li>Twitter for Enterprise/Salesforce </li></ul><ul><li>Enterprise wikis </li></ul><ul><li>Google Docs </li></ul>
    13. 13. Vectors for 2015 <ul><li>Users will no longer care about Application installation & management </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>iTunes, Android market & Citrix Dazzle will be interfaces to application provisioning </li></ul></ul></ul>
    14. 14. An uncharitable comparison = PC PC + Client hypervisor (type 1|2) NOTHING HAS FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED <ul><li>No CAPEX Proposition </li></ul><ul><li>Marginal OPEX value </li></ul><ul><li>Frankenstein PC </li></ul>
    15. 15. The PC era is dead. We need closure with it, its architecture and all attempts to Frankenstein it with Client Virtualization
    16. 16. Moore’s law & the datacenter
    17. 17. The 3 Forces shaping IT <ul><li>Users </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Users want a coherent and flexible Compute paradigm </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The web </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The web is the master repository of my personality </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Moore’s law </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Moore’s law has more amplitude in the datacenter </li></ul></ul>
    18. 18. Dematerialization & liquidity <ul><li>Dematerialization is the transformation of physical objects into mental/thought/logical objects </li></ul><ul><li>Dematerialization creates liquidity and opportunities for arbitrage </li></ul>Dematerialization aka virtualization
    19. 19. A NEW ARCHITECTURE FOR DESKTOP COMPUTING <ul><li>The Rack is the new computer </li></ul><ul><ul><li>It is now the NEW fundamental element of compute </li></ul></ul><ul><li>10G Ethernet is the new BUS </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Connecting specialized pools of compute, storage & memory </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Hypervisor is the kernel </li></ul><ul><ul><li>VMs are simply threads/processes to be scheduled across the rack (or racks) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The software mainframe is the new OS </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Memory Page Sharing, Primary Storage Deduplication, CDP, data mirroring, DR are new primary subsystems of the new Datacenter OS. Many of these are astronomical in cost/complexity to do on the PC. </li></ul></ul>
    20. 20. Key points to think about <ul><ul><li>Where should we run the desktop VM? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>As a type 2 VM on a windows PC? (ala moka5, Vmware Fusion & w/station) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>As a type 1 VM on a bare metal PC (ala Citrix XenClient?) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>In the datacenter as Hosted Virtual desktops? (VDI) </li></ul></ul></ul>? Datacenter = compute liquidity <ul><li>Shared resources = better flexibility </li></ul><ul><li>Dial up/down resources </li></ul><ul><li>Live migrate VMs, users, capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Arbitrage comes from the ability to move between clouds </li></ul>
    21. 21. 2 Key Questions <ul><li>If there was parity in performance & experience between a VDI and a client hosted desktop, what would IT want to give him/her? </li></ul><ul><li>if VMs are pure execution containers, and all the content (OS/Apps/user data) are centralized (or accessible from everywhere) - where would Enterprise IT run the VM and why? </li></ul>Datacenter <ul><li>Fine grained control </li></ul><ul><li>Tighter Security </li></ul><ul><li>Dynamic Capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Disaster recovery and & Business Continuity </li></ul>
    22. 22. Common VDI myths <ul><li>Expensive Servers </li></ul><ul><li>Expensive Storage </li></ul><ul><li>Expensive Datacenter </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Power/cooling/real estate </li></ul></ul>
    23. 23. Expensive Servers Desktop PC <ul><li>Cheap to acquire </li></ul><ul><li>Relatively short haul </li></ul><ul><li>Slow (65mph) </li></ul><ul><li>Costs $0.23/Passenger Mile </li></ul>VDI in the Datacenter <ul><li>Expensive to acquire </li></ul><ul><li>Long Haul </li></ul><ul><li>Fast(550mph) </li></ul><ul><li>Costs $.07/Passenger Mile </li></ul>
    24. 24. Expensive Servers $7000/- CAPEX Cost 70 Users Per Server That’s $100 per user (Storage not included) $750/- CAPEX cost 1 User Per Desktop
    25. 25. Increasing Densities <ul><li>Moore’s law benefits Servers more than PCs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New generation of processor = more users/server </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More users/server = more users/rack </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Morse users/rack = better cost amortization in the datacenter </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Net Net VDI is the most cost effective way to deliver desktops </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Corollary : Moore’s law will double the density of VMs per server every 18 months </li></ul>
    26. 26. Expensive Storage <ul><li>Yes VDI storage is expensive </li></ul><ul><ul><li>If you MUST use FC SAN </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>FC Fabric to the Servers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Do things the old fashioned way! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Use VDI 2.0 Storage technologies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Virtual SAN by aggregating local disk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Intelligent RT Deduplication </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Windows aware Thin provisioning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Use SATA drives and Storage Acceleration </li></ul></ul>
    27. 27. Intelligent Storage choices $60.00/user Dedup, flex clone, flex cache Thin Provisioning, Dedup $70.00/user Intelligent placement, dedup Thin provisioning $140.00/user Inline dedup, caching accelerator $22.00/user
    28. 28. The math behind the CAPEX <ul><li>$10,000 /Server (Westmere + high density RAM) </li></ul><ul><li>70 Sessions / Server = $142.00/user </li></ul><ul><li>$40/User Storage (netapp) </li></ul><ul><li>$25/user in network & storage fabric costs </li></ul><ul><li>Thin client $190/user </li></ul><ul><li>Total = $397 </li></ul>
    29. 29. Projecting for the next 5 years Year VMs/Server Cost/User #VMs/Rack 2010 70 $400 1120 2012 150 $330 2400 2014 300 $260 4800 2016 600 $150 9600
    30. 30. New deployment models
    31. 31. VDI is about at scale deployment <ul><li>Containerization </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cisco/EMC vBlock like technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Factory made VDI PODS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Factory packaged & fully Self contained </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Servers+ Storage + Network Gear </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Just load your image & integrate with AD </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Time to install < 200 man hours for 10,000 Desktops </li></ul></ul>
    32. 32. Containerization in the real world <ul><li>Examples of Containerization </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pano Express from Panologic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dell DANTE </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dell flex Computing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cisco/Vmware/EMC vBlock 1 for VDI </li></ul></ul>
    33. 33. New Technologies to come <ul><li>Hybrid CPU GPU architectures </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Better thread count and inherent parallelism ( 5%) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Network Attached Memory </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shared memory that works like a SAN (10%) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Next Generation Hypervisors (10%) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Memory deduplication </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Memory Compression </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Storage Accelerators (X 5%) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Smart VDI storage intelligence </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Intelligent VDI switches (X 1%) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fast QOS switching </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Smart load-balancers (X 1%) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Efficient Multi Path IO from VM to storage </li></ul></ul>20,000 Desktops per Rack by 2016 <50$ per User for Datacenter Infrastructure
    34. 34. Closing thoughts <ul><li>The move to the cloud is comparable to urbanization </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Opportunity to create new shared infrastructures that make people more productive & efficient </li></ul></ul><ul><li>VDI is not just the sum composite of knee jerk reactions to PC management </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A long term transformational vector </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The natural evolution of computing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Something that cant be ignored </li></ul></ul>
    35. 35. Q&A & Discussion