Certain Toolkits for the do we use When 4 to scenarios?levels of Uncertainty Occur 2 1 Low Uncertainty High Impact Matrix Impact 3 4 Uncertain to Occur
Level 1 Dependable Outcome Clear View of the Future LowUncertainty
Level 2 A This level introduces a limited set of outcomes.During Level 2 B One of which will occur. C
Level 3 Outcomes indeterminate,but bounded in a range
Level 4A limitless range of possible outcomes… true ambiguity... This is the highest level of residual uncertainty.
Break Time• After the break, we will discuss a time series and identify some driving trends in Television, Film, and Computers.• Feel free to extrapolate any trends and apply them during your exercise.
The beginning of Social Media. (1950s)• The air-force adapted the Whirlwind computer into a massive air defense system called SAGEThey spent 3 timesmore on thiscomputer than on theManhattan Project
The beginning of Social Media (1950s) Enter DEC and video gamming theory.
The beginning of Social TV (1950s)Jack Barry pioneeredinteractive TV. (21 theshow)He developed and hostedWinky Dink and You
The beginning of Social TV (1950s)Disneyland opened and The MickeyMouse Club TV show launched as away to help promote and finance thepark. They were expanding their storyworld.The ethos was embodied by theMouseketeers who sold viewers ontheir brand.
With electrictechnology, the consumer will become the producer. What we do as prosumers has social value. The Audience wants to have a role in their entertainment
The McLuhan influence on Transmedia 60s-70s 00s 80s 90s ThisMcLuhan J. Gomez companypredicted Gomez works was a went on toWEB 2.0 student develop with /social Starlight Disney of Runner and Sony. media. McLuhan.
The McLuhan influence on Transmedia 00s60s 70s 80s 99-01 Stewart This ARG went on to went on McLuhan Stewart develop to predicted was a Beast for influence WEB 2.0 student of A.I. all ARGs /social McLuhan. today. media.
The Toffler influence on Transmedia 00s 70s 80s 90s Toffler Case foundedpredicted AOL and WEB Case was a merged with Case, and the ‘prosumer’2.0/social ‘disciple’ of Warner concept, influenced media. Toffler. Studios the largest media industry in the world.
First Attempts at Transmedia (1970s)1976 Warner buys Atari becausevideo games are on the rise.The next year they introduceQube, the first interactive cable TVsystem.Warner loses 18.9m due toAtari/Nintendo wars. Warner sellsAtari to Tramiel.
First Attempts at Transmedia (1970s)A year after Star Wars premiered, a newcharacter, Boba Fett, appeared in a TV special.Lucas called this ‘the expanded universe.’ (78)After viewers embraced this character, he wasgiven a significant film role. Lucas also releasedseveral comics and allowed for fan-fiction.In Japan, manga and anime properties likeGundam (79) spanned media, manifesting inTV, film, video games, and theme parks.
Cross Media Explosion (80s-90s)Barry Diller develops high-conceptmarketing.Barry Diller also develops mega-branding and cross-mediastorytelling.FCC lifts ban on product-basedprogramming.
Internet Explosion (80s-90s) Hypercard was the first form of IBM builds modemMIT(85) develops (89) Tim Berners- hyperlinks. Casetheir first Media Lee develops the Lab. partners with Lucas world wide web Films and begins (91). IM chats (85-86).
Web 2.0Google, the first communitybased SEO, becomes a mega-firm and media convergence paves the way for more successful transmediastorytelling and distribution. (‘05 personalized SEOs)
ManoaFuturesWheel Social Media Economy Crowd Sourcing
Work forceFilm ScienceTV Crowd Sourcing Fashion Education
Future Crowd Wheel Social Media Economy Sourcing Matrix Crowd What effects will What effects will Results of futures social media have the economy have Sourcing wheel on crowd of crowd sourcing? sourcing? What effects willSocial Media What effects will social media have Results of futures economics have on crowd wheel on social media? sourcing? What effects will Economy What effects will crowd sourcing Results of futures healthcare have have on wheel on economics? economics?
• Break into two groups. Use Manoa Future Wheels as a tool to define and rank drivers and trends. Make a cross impact matrix.• From there we will create a fork in the road scenario logic for backcasting.• We will close by discussing possible strategies that can prepare your organization for a ‘dynamics as usual’ path and a ‘divergent’ path.
Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany This is a Parables Today Consultant’s adaptation of… Backcasting 2022 Desired Future ‘more of the same‘ Present Social Media Revolution Undesired Future ‘on demand revolution‘ Plausibility Check = Drivers = Obstacles = Overall Trends Dreborg (1996): Backcasting complex and persistent problems are in focus, particularly useful when… dominant trends are part of the problem, external factors are present, the need for major change exists, the time frame and thematic focus allow for radical changes.
Crossing the Transmedia Marketing Parables Chasm Today Consulting Mainstream Chasm Story fans Channel Surfers Pragmatists Conservatives Skeptics Early AdoptersComics, Online Film’s Opening Second Week in Netflix , HULU, Cable,Books, ARGs, Fan- Weekend theater, sometimes Direct TV,Fiction, Video Games, the second film.Apps, Social TV
Transmedia Long Tail StrategyThe tail becomes bigger and longer in new markets (depicted inthe red line/arrow). Traditional models only focused on the‘hot’ market (depicted in the blue line/arrow). Opening Box- Office Social TV Social Media Parables Today Consulting
By the end of To Recapthis workshop you should know more How the Sharing tools about… scenario from the 4 making levels of process uncertainty. works. Comparing Relating a quantitative time series of and media trends qualitative to your methods. company.