The Future of Social TV

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  • All forecasting methods can be divided into two broad categories: qualitative and quantitative. Many forecasting techniques use past or historical data in the form of time series. A time series is simply a set of observations measured at successive points in time or over successive periods of time. Forecasts essentially provide future values of the time series on a specific variable such as sales volume. Division of forecasting methods into qualitative and quantitative categories is based on the availability of historical time series data.QualitativeQualitative forecasting techniques generally employ the judgment of experts in the appropriate field to generate forecasts. A key advantage of these procedures is that they can be applied in situations where historical data are simply not available.QuantitativeQuantitative forecasting methods are used when historical data on variables of interest are available. These methods are based on an analysis of historical data concerning the time series of the specific variable of interest and possibly other related time series. There are two major categories of quantitative forecasting methods. The first type uses the past trend of a particular variable to base the future forecast of the variable. As this category of forecasting methods simply uses time series on past data of the variable that is being forecasted, these techniques are called time series methods.This presentation will introduce several steps and tools. I will then present time series data as well as expert testimony to help you better asses driving trends into both a preferred and divergent path in the film industry. During the workshop you break into groups and practice using porter’s 5 forces to draft scenario logics. From there, we will reconvene and discuss the strategic implications. But first, we will look at the steps in scenario planning. EndnotesMats Lindgren; Hans Bandhold, Scenario Planning (New York:Palgrave Macmillan, 2003),167.
  • Scenario planning has been defined by Porter as “an internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be – not a forecast, but one possible future outcome.” Schwartz says scenarios are tools, “for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decisions might be played out.” Ringland considers scenario planning as “that part of strategic planning which relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future.” Schoemaker defines scenario planning as “a disciplined methodology for imagining possible futures in which organizational decisions may be played out.” It is difficult to find a crisp definition of the scenario process but before delving into the futures studies tool you all will be practicing, we just engage in a brief overview on the value of the scenario making process. Scenarios are not about getting the future right. Scenarios are concerned with challenging current forms of thinking and catching paradigms that might have been overlooked. EndnotesHamel & Prahalad, “Competing for the Future.” Harvard Business Review (1994). Michael Porter, Competitive Strategy (New York: Free Press,1985). Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View (New York: Doubleday, 1991). G. Ringland, Scenario Planning : Managing for the Future (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998). Paul Shoemaker, “Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking.” Sloan Management Review (Volume 20 1995): 25-40.
  • Step 1 First thing’s first. Identify the time horizon. For this group it will be 2022. Identify who is involved. In this case, an independent film company. Finally we need to inform a specific decision or general view of a coming terrain. Namely: should this company focus on making social films for social TV? Before launching this scenario planning exercise with you our consulting group had to frame the scope of this third question. Going through this process can determine if scenario planning fits better than any other business plan. Sometimes the issue in question may not require futures forecasting. If the issue only involves small changes to business as usual, then another methodology would apply.We concluded that shifting from film to Social TV, and investing in making films for Social TV, qualified as a large scale investment. For your company, this issue was worthy of scenario planning. This workshop will begin by identifying where we are currently. From there we can project our future goals. We will also explore backcasting.Step 2Concept mapping amounts to placing your company in the center of a blank page and then branching outwards the goals and services you have for your company.
  • Step 3Trend analysis consists of studying the external conditions that drive trends and create events.A company needs to be in equilibrium with these external drivers.Trend spotting simply amounts to collecting data on trends and events as they happen. Trend analysis finds ways to stay within that equilibrium. This highlights the crucial significance of an organization’s sense of higher ambition.Being driven by long-term purposes, and finding where your passions profitably intersect with your company’s area of capabilities, will keep your company sustainable for the future.There are some main external conditions that drive trends. You should also select the driving forces outside the organization (trends, events and issues) that are shaping the baseline future.Social: Popularity and diversity are both signs of social force. Technological: “Technology may be the greatest single category of change drivers that we will cope with over the next millennium.”Economy: The global economy remains a headlining issue. China’s purchasing power will definitely shape the next 10-20 years. Environmental Forces: A stronger driver than climate change is the fear of limited oil reserves. The energy that runs most of the technology we take for granted is derived from oil. The oil shock of the 70s spawned most of the scenario planning we see today. Political: We see this happening in Chinese communities. Local communities consider the state as a father figure. The state also owns most business firms. The private firms, like Lenovo, depend in many ways on state patronage.The future events can be grouped into trends and those broad external trends usually stem from one or more of the driving forces above.  EndnotesMats Lindgren; Hans Banhold, Scenario Planning (New York: Palgrave Mamillan, 2003), 117.Thomas Chermack, Scenario Planning in Organizations (San Francisco: Berret-Koehler, 2011), 103. Michael Beer, Higher Ambition (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2011)166-167, compare with Bulke, CEO of Nestle, on page 98.Thomas Chermack, Scenario Planning in Organizations (San Francisco: Berret-Koehler, 2011), 104.  Gail Tverberg, “The Reality is, Our Economy Runs on Oil and We Need More” www.businessinsider.com7 February, 2012, http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-02-07/home/31011725_1_crude-oil-oil-prices-oil-consumption George S. Day; Paul J. Shoemaker, Peripheral Vision (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2006), 33. Also see Matthew R. Simmons, Twilight in the Desert (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2005). Ian Jeffries, Economic Developments in Contemporary China (New York: Taylor and Francis, 2011), 499.
  • Step 5After selecting the driving forces outside the organization (trends, events and issues) that are shaping the baseline future, the group should list and rank the forces or axes that are both highly important in their impact and highly uncertain in their outcome. Their should be a matching polarity for each. You should be able to form sentences like the following:Which forces will allow _ to decrease OR _ to increase?Step 6 and 7After ranking the strongest forces and their matching polarities, we will need to select a scenario logic. Above are the three most important sets. With the 2x2 matrix, you would draw up an x and y axis that charts four quadrants. Each quadrant points to a different future operating environment for the organization. Most quadrants invariably consists of x and y axis that have polarities like ‘Regionalism to Globalization’, ‘Individualization to Social integration’, ‘Technology frustrates to Technology liberates.’ With the fork in the road logic we look at one critical issue/trend/event in the present and paint to diverging paths. They usually break into “more of the same” and “the total opposite” or “desired path” and “undesired path.” We start by identifying the official future that your organization is planning for and ask ‘what must be true for this future to be realized’ and ‘what assumptions are necessary?’ Then we reverse these assumptions to develop a plausible divergent path. We will meet up after you all do this exercise and we will share the most plausible ‘more of the same’ and ‘divergent’ path. We will be using the fork in the road scenario logic, in conjunction with backcasting. Mostly it overlaps with fork in the road but I will explain more about backcasting later. Structured Randomization amounts to listing apocalyptic style wild cards. Some examples are as follows: Civil War, Pandemic, Natural Disaster, Economic Collapse, Terror Attack, Floods, Fire, ETC.
  • Step 8Here we need to create a human interest story that will provide context for the future events; be they more of the same or a completely divergent path. Use imagination but not so much that it reads like science fiction. Show cause and effect logic. As I mention above demonstrate how these events could pose as threats and/or opportunities for you customers and stakeholders. Step 9When describing the threats you will need to affirm how your company can strategically stand up against these threats. This is called wind tunneling or testing options.Having generated new or existing strategy elements, services, technologies, markets, partnerships or processes to link to the scenarios it is then important that they are tested (or 'wind-tunnelled') for robustness. The central question to be answered is 'how well will these ideas work out in the four scenarios'.This is an iterative process and can often offer a better understanding of the way that ideas can be further developed and implemented. A suggested approach for establishing this is to first brainstorm the issues and possibilities and then follow this up with structured discussion within the team or group in order to ask appropriate questions and seek answers in order to identify and rate enabling and constraining factors. The results can then be summarised in an 'option table.‘We should ask questions like ‘how do we overcome the weaknesses that prevent us from taking advantages of these opportunities?” , “how do we use our strengths to reduce the likelihood and impact of these threats?”, or “how do we address the weakness that will make these threats a reality?”
  • Step 10Keidel makes the case that by seeing organizational patterns, one can prevent competitive disadvantage and leverage a competitive advantage in said organization’s favor. If the organization is strong in capabilities and resources, how do we exploit this in the future? If not, what investments should we make today?According to Keidel, the goal is to maintain a level of balance within what he calls the organizational matrix. If your organizational pattern leans too much towards cooperation, control, or autonomy it will ultimately lead to failure. Based on my talks with your CEO, I’ve noticed your company is leaning towards a more consistent/functional organization. Companies like this could stand to gain a more innovative hierarchy. The Blue Ocean Strategy does an impressive job of encouraging an innovative hiercharcy. Kim and Mauborgne’s ‘Blue Ocean Strategy’ shows how innovation oftentimes supersedes the so called competitive advantage. Step 11Communicate this strategy [or any other decided upon strategy] effectively throughout the organization. John P. Kotter codifies an eight stage process for communicating effective change in his book Leading Change: Establish a Sense of Urgency.This requires identifying crises, potential crises or major opportunities.Creating the Guiding CoalitionThis involves putting together people who can lead the change.Developing a vision and strategy for achieving that vision.Communicating the change vision through every vehicle possible.Empowering Broad-Based ActionThis involves using all actions to get rid of obstacles.Generating short-terms wins and rewards…This helps motivate the group to continue towards the long-term goal.Consolidating Gains and Producing More Change This involves hiring, promoting, and developing people who can bring the right form of change.Anchoring New Approaches in the Culture All of these phases focus on how leaders should sustain change agents. The summations of these phases are the following: establish a sense of urgency, form a powerful guiding coalition, create a vision that is easy to communicate, and create short-term wins.  Step 12You can repeat this process through double loop learning. Argyris emphasizes a cognitive and rational model for changing organizations. Argyris in his book Theory and Practice argues that double-loop learning [aka repeating the process] is necessary if practitioners and organizations are to make informed decisions in rapidly changing and often uncertain contexts. We can also repeat the process with other questions. This is an overview of the scenario planning method, one of the most thorough tools to use in futures studies. Doing GBN style scenarios with a 2 x 2 approach to driver analysis (with a 12-step handout, as in residency) is really beyond what we can do in a 3-hour session. In this session we can make use of steps 1-6 because we came to this session understanding our parameters, the concept of the company, and a basic understanding of driving forces. The tools we will be using in this workshop to gain a deeper peripheral vision will be porters 5 forces and a fork in the road approach. In future sessions, you should be aware of some other tools that could be used during futures studies. Let’s a quick look at the other tolls used to measure four levels of uncertain futures. But we are open to you exploring how Manoa futurists use "future wheels" to develop mini-scenarios. This folder of materials shows how to go from 3 future wheels to one combined extreme future, and then do "incasting" or what is it is like to live and work in that new world, in order to test strategy. EndnotesRobert W. Keidel, Seeing Organizational Patterns (San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler, 1995), See page 16 under ‘Three ways to fail.’ W Chan Kim; Renee Mauborgne, Blue Ocean Strategy (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2005).John P. Kotter, Leading Change (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1996), 83.John P. Kotter, “Leading change: Why Transformation Efforts Fail.” Harvard Business Review (March-April 1995): 59-67.Chris Argyris and D Schön, Theory in Practice. Increasing professional effectiveness (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1974).
  • The standard practice is to lay out a vision of future events precise enough to be captured in a discounted-cash-flow analysis. Of course, managers can discuss alternative scenarios and test how sensitive their forecasts are to changes in key variables, but the goal of such analysis is often to find the most likely outcome and create a strategy based on it. That approach serves companies well in relatively stable business environments. But when there is greater uncertainty about the future, it is at best marginally helpful and at worst downright dangerous.One of the most colossal underestimations in business history was with Kenneth H. Olsen. He believed they were in at a low level of uncertainty. Olsen, then president of Digital Equipment Corporation, announced in 1977 that “there is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” The explosion in the personal computer market was not inevitable in 1977, but it was certainly within the range of possibilities that industry experts were discussing at the time.At the other extreme, assuming that the world is entirely unpredictable can lead managers to abandon the analytical rigor of their traditional planning processes altogether and base their strategic decisions primarily on gut instinct. This “just do it” approach to strategy can cause executives to place misinformed bets on emerging products or markets that result in record write-offs. Those who took the plunge and invested in home banking in the early 1980s immediately come to mind. Rising house prices were an example of a phenomenon called a “speculative bubble.” This happens when prices of a financial asset suddenly take off and keep rising. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance, says this is driven by emotion.Justin Fox points out that the cycle of speculative bubbles date back to the 1630s. In the Netherlands people were buying and selling Tullip bulbs at the prices of houses. Half of the Dutch economy was caught up in tulip trades. People were not buying tulips because they liked them but because they thought they could resell them for a higher price. On February 5, 1637 the bubble finally bursts and leading citizens found themselves bankrupt. Historians say it took a generation for the Dutch economy to recover.  To keep an equilibrium with in the uncertainty matrix, we will be combining the level one tool [Porter’s 5 forces] with a fork in the road analysis that challenges the ‘more of the same’ scenario. EndnotesHugh Courtney et al., “Strategy Under Uncertainty,” Harvard Business Review (November 1997). http://hbr.org/1997/11/strategy-under-uncertainty/ar/1Robert Shiller, Irrational Exuberance (New York: Currency Doubleday, 2005). Justin Fox, The Myth of the Rational Market (New York: Harper Business, 2009).
  • Low uncertainty. Business as usual scenario aka more of the same scenario. Situational Analysis of Tools to UseMarket ResearchCost BenchmarkingPorter’s 5 forcesDCF/ NVP valuationEnd ProductPoint ForecastsDCF AnalysisA little more on DCF valuation: What is it: In discounted cash flow valuation, the value of an asset is the present value of the expected cash flows on the asset.Philosophical Basis: Every asset has an intrinsic value that can be estimated, based upon its characteristics in terms of cash flows, growth and risk.Information Needed: To use discounted cash flow valuation, you needto estimate the life of the assetto estimate the cash flows during the life of the assetto estimate the discount rate to apply to these cash flows to get present valueMarket Inefficiency: Markets are assumed to make mistakes in pricing assets across time, and are assumed to correct themselves over time, as new information comes out about assets.Advantages of DCFSince DCF valuation, done right, is based upon an asset’s fundamentals, it should be less exposed to market moods and perceptions.If good investors buy businesses, rather than stocks (the Warren Buffett adage), discounted cash flow valuation is the right way to think about what you are getting when you buy an asset.DCF valuation forces you to think about the underlying characteristics of the firm, and understand its business. If nothing else, it brings you face to face with the assumptions you are making when you pay a given price for an asset.No valuation model is ever immune from market moods. Discounted cash flow valuation is less exposed than relative valuation (multiples) to the ebbs and flows of valuation. It is therefore much more likely to yield contrarian recommendations when markets get out of hand - sell when markets are booming and buy when markets are down.The process of valuation is almost as important as the product (the value that you estimate). As you consider the inputs you will use to value a firm, and examine the effect of changes in these inputs on value, you will understand the determinants of firm value.Disadvantages of DCFIn an intrinsic valuation model, there is no guarantee that anything will emerge as under or over valued. Thus, it is possible in a DCF valuation model, to find every stock in a market to be over valued. This can be a problem for equity research analysts, whose job it is to follow sectors and make recommendations on the most under and over valued stocks in that sector equity portfolio managers, who have to be fully (or close to fully) invested in equitiesSince it is an attempt to estimate intrinsic value, it requires far more inputs and information than other valuation approachesThese inputs and information are not only noisy (and difficult to estimate), but can be manipulated by the savvy analyst to provide the conclusion he or she wants.A Simple FrameworkA simple framework involving the estimation of only a few key inputsEarnings or dividendsGrowthROE or ROCRetention ratioCash flowCost of capitalKey equationg = ROE*RRWhy is this key?Allows us to pass growth in earnings to growth in cash flowFree cash flow = earnings * (1-RR)Key assumptionsGrowth in earnings should translate into growth in cash flowFundamental growth equation holds (more or less)Is this true when examining dividends?All cash flow will eventually be given back to shareholdersDividends, share repurchases, higher ROE, etc.Good firms tend to do good things with free cash flowsEndnotesH. Courtney et al., “Strategy Under Uncertainty,” Harvard Business Review (November 1997).Shannon P. Pratt, Business Valuation Discounts and Premiums (New Jersey: Wiley and Sons, 2009), 398.
  • Situational Analysis of Tools to UseDecision/Event TreesGame Theory‘Scenarios’ of the defined outcome.End ProductDescription of each world.Dynamic path to each outcome. Risk assessment of outcomes. More on Game TheoryGame theory may be used to gain an understanding of how each ‘actor’ pursuing its own self interest might respond in the scenario. The goal of the stories is to transform the analysis from a simple matrix of obvious range of environmental factors into decision scenarios useful for strategic planning. Game theory is a lot like playing chess. It makes use of rational scenarios to predict likely outcomes. You can draw out these likely outcomes into a game three diagram. Once the tree is complete, you should develop effective strategies around the most likely scenario. Game theory “helps planning teams play a strategy in the confines of a safe laboratory environment… Game theory can be an effective tool for strategic planning process.”EndnotesJames R. Langabeer, John Napiewocki, Competitive Business Strategy for Teaching Hospitals (Westport: Greenwood Publishing Group, 2000), 179.
  • Situational Analysis of Tools to UseScanning and Trend TrackingSystems DynamicsScenario PlanningEnd ProductsA set of scenarios.Operating Conditions. Preferred scenario. More on Scenario PlanningThe first few slides have talked in detail about this tool. Scenario planning tools apply to both level 3 and level 4. Scenario planning or scenario thinking is a strategic planning tool used to make flexible long-term plans. It is a method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting our world.Many of the regular methods for strategy development assume that the world in three to ten years' time will not significantly differ from that of today and that an organisation will have a large impact on its environment: they assume we can mould the future. Scenario planning however assumes that the future can differ greatly from what we know today.The thought processes involved in getting to the scenarios have the dual purpose of increasing knowledge of the environment in which you operate and widening the participant's perception of possible future events - encouraging them to 'think the unthinkable.'.Endnoteswww.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/tools/scenario-planning
  • Situational Analysis of Tools to UseScanning and Trend TrackingSystems DynamicsScenario PlanningEnd ProductsA set of scenarios.Operating Conditions. Strategies to enact scenarios. More on Scenario PlanningScenario Thinking has a long history. Back in the 16th Century a Spanish Jesuit theologist and scholar, Luis de Molina, was credited with introducing the concept of 'conditional future contingents' or 'futuribilia' as an explanation for free will, foreknowledge and predestination. In 1960s France, the Futurist Gaston Berger reflected on contextualising past and present events with a view to making choices in alternative futures. According to Fahey and Randall the notion of scenario development is commonly attributed to Herman Kahn during his tenure in the 1950s at RAND Corporation. Kahn is also known as the most celebrated and controversial nuclear strategist. He encouraged people to 'think the unthinkable', first about the consequences of nuclear war and then about every manner of future condition.EndnotesLuis de Molina, Concordia (Lisbon: Malaska & Virtanen, 1589), 12. Gaston Berger, Phenomenologies du Temps et Prospectives(Paris: PresseUniversitaires de France, 1964). L. Fahey; R.M. Randall, Learning from the Future (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998), 17Bishop, et al, “The Current State of Scenario Development.” Foresight (March 2007), 10.
  • The first computer was built just after WW2 (ENIAC) for military purposes.Later, Whirlwind Computer was built at MIT’s Lincoln Lab by Jay Forrester for the Navy. All of this would have been lost if it had not been for the entrance of the Atomic Bomb in 1953. SAGE led to a lot of what we use today but it was the size of century city. Today we’ve applied Moore’s law of miniaturization to most computing devices. Spacewars was one of the early seeds of interactive storytelling. Although limited to one media platform and a small storyworld, it was real interactive storytelling. TV caught on to this concept of interactive storytelling around the same time. Spacewar! is one of the earliest known digital computer games. It is a two-player game, with each player taking control of a spaceship and attempting to destroy the other. A star in the centre of the screen pulls on both ships and requires maneuvering to avoid falling into it. In an emergency, a player can enter hyperspace to return at a random location on the screen, but only at the risk of exploding if it is used too often. EndnotesJoel Shurkin, Engines of the Mind: The Evolution of the Computer from Mainframes to Microprocessors, 1996. Jay Forrester, Digital Computers as Information-Processing Systems (Cambridge: MIT, 1951).Jay Forrester, “The Beginning of System Dynamics.” System Dynamic Society (July 1989), 1-3 .Nathan Myhrvold "Moore's Law Corollary: Pixel Power." New York Times (June 2006). John Markoff, "Alan Kotok, 64, a Pioneer In Computer Video Games.”The New York Times (June 2006).
  • The first computer was built just after WW2 (ENIAC) for military purposes.Later, Whirlwind Computer was built at MIT’s Lincoln Lab by Jay Forrester for the Navy. All of this would have been lost if it had not been for the entrance of the Atomic Bomb in 1953. SAGE led to a lot of what we use today but it was the size of century city. Today we’ve applied Moore’s law of miniaturization to most computing devices. Spacewars was one of the early seeds of interactive storytelling. Although limited to one media platform and a small story-world, it was real interactive storytelling. TV caught on to this concept of interactive storytelling around the same time. Spacewar! is one of the earliest known digital computer games. It is a two-player game, with each player taking control of a spaceship and attempting to destroy the other. A star in the centre of the screen pulls on both ships and requires maneuvering to avoid falling into it. In an emergency, a player can enter hyperspace to return at a random location on the screen, but only at the risk of exploding if it is used too often. EndnotesJoel Shurkin, Engines of the Mind: The Evolution of the Computer from Mainframes to Microprocessors, 1996. Jay Forrester, Digital Computers as Information-Processing Systems (Cambridge: MIT, 1951).Jay Forrester, “The Beginning of System Dynamics.” System Dynamic Society (July 1989), 1-3 .Nathan Myhrvold "Moore's Law Corollary: Pixel Power." New York Times (June 2006). John Markoff, "Alan Kotok, 64, a Pioneer In Computer Video Games.”The New York Times (June 2006).
  • Winky Dink and You was a CBS children's television show that aired from 1953 to 1957, on Saturday mornings at 10:30 a.m. Eastern / 9:30 Central. It was hosted by Jack Barry and featured the exploits of a cartoon character named Winky Dink and his dog Woofer. (see hero’s journey as grand narrative) (also see wanderer/warrior as grand narrative)Winky Dink was fake interactive TV for children that planted the seeds of young-adult forms of transmedia storytelling. Twenty One is an American game show which aired in the late 1950s. While it included the most popular contestant of the quiz show era, it became notorious for being a rigged quiz show which nearly caused the demise of the entire genre in the wake of United States Senate investigations. 21 was fake interactive TV for adults. These quiz shows gave birth several reality-tv/game shows and planted seeds for adult transmedia storytelling to grow in the future. (see survivor horror and survivor action as grand narrative, also see Propps tests and trials for quiz show as grand narrative) Most MTV and E reality shows are heavily scripted and more rigged than 21. The players are real people but you can not get on the show. And the “games” and “prizes” they play for on the shows are very scripted and rigged. EndnotesMark Gawlinski, Interactive television Production (Burlington: Focal Press, 2003). Gary Edgerton; Brian Rose, Thinking Outside the Box (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 2005), 93. Su holmes, The Quiz Show (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2008), 47.James A. Mead, Survivor and other Reality TV Gameshows(Whitewater: University of Wisconsin, 2006).
  • Walt Disney was close behind Winky Dink and You. Disney was not only employing social TV, they were expanding their story universe. Winky Dink and You was a CBS children's television show that aired from 1953 to 1957, on Saturday mornings at 10:30 a.m. Eastern / 9:30 Central. It was hosted by Jack Barry and featured the exploits of a cartoon character named Winky Dink and his dog Woofer. (see hero’s journey as grand narrative) (also see wanderer/warrior as grand narrative)Winky Dink was fake interactive TV for children that planted the seeds of young-adult forms of transmedia storytelling. Twenty One is an American game show which aired in the late 1950s. While it included the most popular contestant of the quiz show era, it became notorious for being a rigged quiz show which nearly caused the demise of the entire genre in the wake of United States Senate investigations. 21 was fake interactive TV for adults. These quiz shows gave birth several reality-tv/game shows and planted seeds for adult transmedia storytelling to grow in the future. (see survivor horror and survivor action as grand narrative, also see Propps tests and trials for quiz show as grand narrative) Most MTV and E reality shows are heavily scripted and more rigged than 21. The players are real people but you can not get on the show. And the “games” and “prizes” they play for on the shows are very scripted and rigged. EndnotesMark Gawlinski, Interactive television Production (Burlington: Focal Press, 2003). Gary Edgerton; Brian Rose, Thinking Outside the Box (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 2005), 93. Su holmes, The Quiz Show (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2008), 47.James A. Mead, Survivor and other Reality TV Gameshows(Whitewater: University of Wisconsin, 2006).
  • A movie is thus said by McLuhan to be "hot", intensifying one single sense "high definition", demanding a viewer's attention, and a comic book to be "cool" and "low definition", requiring much more conscious participation by the reader to extract value. “if the audience can become involved in the actual process of making the ad, then it’s happy. It’s like the old quiz shows. They were great TV because it gave the audience a role, something to do.”Global Theater was the initial neologism McLuhan used because he was predicting a time when computing programs and television programs would be blended together. This would create story worlds that audiences will have a role in creating and developing. EndnotesMarshall McLuhan, Understanding Media (New York: Routledge, 2001), 22. Janine Marchessault, Marshall McLuhan (Thousand Oaks: SAGE publications 2005), 213-214. Tompkins, Vincent, “Assimilation of the Counterculture.” American Decades (Detroit: Thomson Gale Publishing, 2001).
  • McLuhan predicted the world wide web saying “the global village is a world in which you don’t necessarily have harmony. You have extreme concern with everyone else’s business and much involvement in everybody else’s life. It’s a sort of Ann Landers’ column writ large. And it doesn’t necessarily mean harmony, peace, and quiet, but it does mean huge involvement in everybody else’s affairs. And so the global village is as big as a planet and as small as a post office.”John Markoff says, “the anti-war movement in the 60s and 70s had everything to do with computing. It all happened within 5 miles from Stanford University between 1960 and 1975. A group of researchers led by people like John McCarthy and Doug Engelbart. In the midst of that revolutionary ferment came the microprocessor. It was that interaction that led to personal computing. They saw these as tools to liberate people and build social online communities. They also had this ethos of sharing information.” These computing endeavors led to Wiki projects, You Tube, Facebook, Blogging, Etc. Marshall McLuhan and Barrington Nevitt suggested in their 1972 book Take Today, (p. 4) that with electric technology, the consumer would become a producer In the 1980 book, The Third Wave, futurologist Alvin Toffler coined the term "prosumer" when he predicted that the role of producers and consumers would begin to blur and merge (even though he described it in his book Future Shock from 1970). Toffler envisioned a highly saturated marketplace as mass production of standardized products began to satisfy basic consumer demands. To continue growing profit, businesses would initiate a process of mass customization, that is the mass production of highly customized products. EndnotesPaul Levinson, Digital McLuhan: A Guide to the Information Millennium (New York: Routledge, 1999). John Markoff, What the Door Mouse Said (New York: Penguine Books, 2005).
  • While Jeff Gomez was in college, one of his communications professors introduced him to Marshall McLuhan’s theories. This led Gomez to applying these theories to what is now called Transmedia. Jeff formed a transmedia company called Starlight Runner. He has also managed to register the credit ‘transmedia producer’ with the producer’s guild. Some of the film projects he’s worked with include but are not limited to the following: Pirates of the Caribbean, Avatar, and Men in Black 3. He has recently signed a multi-million dollar contract with all Sony projects. “In today’s interconnected world, young adults, teens and even kids have become so comfortable with media technology that they flow from one platform to the next. The problem [in 2009] is that their content is not flowing with them. As a discipline, transmedia provides us wuth a foundation for the development, production and rollout of entertainment properties or consumer brands across multiple media platforms. Transmedia creates the flow.” – Jeff Gomez Forbes Q&A (March 2009). EndnotesDiNucci, Darcy ”Fragmented Future.” (1999): 32.
  • The term "Web 2.0" was first used in January 1999 by Darcy DiNucci, a consultant on electronic information design (information architecture). In her article, "Fragmented Future", DiNucci writes: The Web we know now, which loads into a browser window in essentially static screenfuls, is only an embryo of the Web to come. The first glimmerings of Web 2.0 are beginning to appear, and we are just starting to see how that embryo might develop. The Web will be understood not as screenfuls of text and graphics but as a transport mechanism, the ether through which interactivity happens. It will [...] appear on your computer screen, [...] on your TV set [...] your car dashboard [...] your cell phone [...] hand-held game machines [...] maybe even your microwave oven.Tim Beners-Lee objects to the term Web 2.0 because his intention was for the world wide web of the 90s to always be prosumer based. Web 2.0 terminology went mainstream in a 2004 state of the internet interview. O'Reilly, Tim, and John Battelle. 2004. Opening Welcome: State of the Internet Industry. In San Francisco, California, October 5. One of Jeff friends was also a student of McLuhan, Sean Stewart. One very popular aspect of transmedia is alternate reality games and/or augmented reality games. He pioneered this venture with one of the first ARGs, Beast. This was a game used that expanded the story world of Spielberg's 2001 movie A.I.. The game gave the audience a role in the storytelling of the A.I. world and created a stronger community for the film release. Endnotes
  • Steven Case, the founder of the first internet company AOL, was a disciple of Toffler’s prosumerism theories from the 70s. In 2001, AOL’s prosumer philosophy merges with Warner Studios, becoming one of the largest media industries in the world – Time Warner. It later was considered the worst merger ever. Case resigned from Charimanship in 2005 but some of his philosophies still heavily influence their current success. [namely using social media to garner a large audience and a large community] This consequently results in using storyworlds that are already successful in another form of entertainment. Google and Time Warner introduced and enhanced several prosumer based methods of using the web and converging all media. Google began partnering with Time Warner and MySpace in 2005. They also acquired You Tube in 2006. Prosumerism is The term has also taken on multiple meanings in business and economics: the business sector sees the prosumer (professional–consumer) as a market segment, whereas economists see the prosumer (producer–consumer) as having greater independence from the mainstream economy. These differing meanings often describe the same people; consumers unusually interested in the products. It can also be used to differentiate the traditional passive consumer with an active consumer role more involved in the process, such as activity in the design or customization of the end product.Toffler describes the age of prosumption as the arrival of a new form of economic and political democracy, self-determined work, labour autonomy, local production, and autonomous self-production. Fuchs would argue that he overlooks how prosumption is used for outsourcing work to users and consumers, who work without payment. Thereby corporations reduce their investment costs and labour costs, jobs are destroyed, and consumers who work for free are extremely exploited. They produce surplus value that is appropriated and turned into profit by corporations without paying wages. Notwithstanding Toffler’s uncritical optimism, his notion of the “prosumer“ describes important changes of media structures and practices and can therefore also be adopted for critical studies.In Revolutionary Wealth, Toffler attempts to respond to some of these criticisms. The main one here being intellectual property. EndnotesAlvin Toffler, The Third Wave (New York: Bantam, 1980).
  • In 1976, Nolan Bushnell sold his Atari company to Warner Communications for an estimated $2–12 million. Warner made considerable profits (and later losses) with Atari, which it owned from 1976 to 1984. While part of Warner, Atari achieved its greatest success, selling millions of Atari 2600s and computers. At its peak, Atari accounted for a third of Warner's annual income and was the fastest-growing company in the history of the United States at the time. To 30,000 homes scattered around the city and its suburbs, the goal of the QUBE was rather simple: "To create a faster method for groups to communicate and interact, across distance."Despite having a short lifespan and multiple shortcomings, QUBE occupied a unique place in media history. It was a venture that encouraged entrepreneurial media activities, and provided a unique foundation for a disproportionately large number of media innovators. The sell also had to do with the video game crash of 1983 and the emerging Japanese success of NES (Nintendo). EndnotesAugust E. Grant; Jennifer Meadows, Communication Technology (Burlington: Focal Press, 2010) , 205. Erik Barnouw,Tube of Plenty (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990).Mia Consalvo, "Console video games and global corporations: Creating a hybrid culture.” New Media Society (2006), 117–137.
  • George Lucas was the first one to use the term “expanded universe” when relating to telling a story cross several media platforms. The Star Wars franchise did not extend to comics, movies, toys, and games. They also work as a solid representation of social TV. When Boba Fett was so well received during a television show, Lucas wrote him into the next film release. While Henry Jenkins says transmedia starts with Star Wars. Jeff Gomez says it starts with the manga and anime properties like Gundam. One form represents a cult following while the other theory speaks to a more national awareness. Gomez would say transmedia works as a reaction to national crises. “The influence of the internet is changing stories, by which I mean movies, television shows, games, any number of advertisements, any number of ways that stories can be told – it’s changing them in a way that is making them immersive, above all, but also non-linear, because the Web itself is non-linear. That’s making it somewhat game-like and certainly very participatory. In other words, no more passive viewing; it’s becoming a much more active role.” – Frank Rose, author, The Art of Immersion.
  • The Paramount film company was in a financial crisis in 1974. They were in serious debt. Davis and Bluhdorn hired Diller to save the company. As chairman of Paramount from 1974 to 1984, Diller worked closely with Eisner to bring success to the studio. They have since admitted that they were very inexperienced in with the film world. What they brought to film world was the “high concept.” According to the urban-legends of the entertainment industry, high concept is a term that was first associated with Barry Diller. 1974 to 1984 changed the entertainment industry forever. This consequently gave birth to film franchising in the forms of: ‘The Sequel’, ‘The Film Series’, ‘The Prequel’, and ‘The Reboot’.Media critics emphasized how the “high concept” was ushering in creative bankruptcy. High concept continues to be the most market-driven type of film being produced. These youth oriented pictures are, in most cases, focusing more on commerce than art. The goal is marketable stories, not original stories.Newsweek often touted them for having the “best all-around movie studio.” During their run Paramount’s Terms of Endearment won five Academy Awards, including Best Picture. In 1984, several of the higher echelons of the company left. Diller went to Fox and Eisner went to Disney. This left market researcher Frank Mancuso in charge of Paramount. As they took over other studios, all three of these men continued to use the high concept model. Paul Rosenfield says that Barry Diller single handedly spawned a whole generation of cross media moguls. Kinder, the first person ever to use the term transmedia, mentions how mega branding and cross media marketing gained so much traction because of the deregulation of American broadcasting in the 80s. In 1984 the FCC lifted its ban of product-based programming. By the time of the 90s transmedia inter-textuality was in full swing. Cross over genres existed between books, movies, TV, toys, video games, etc. The cross-platform concept also filtered out of Japan with Pokemon, whose fans followed the characters across TV, film, games, and trading cards.EndnotesTony Schwartz, “Hollywood’s Hottest Stars.” New York (July 1984), 31. Gary Edgerton, “High Concept, small Screen.” Journal of Popular Film and Television (Fall 1991), 114-127. David Ansen and Peter McAlevey, “The Producer Is King Again.” Newsweek (May 1985), 84-86. Thomas Schatz, Hollywood: Cultural Dimensions (New York: Routledge, 2004), 374. George Mair, The Barry Diller Story (New York: J. Wiley, 1997), 97. Paul Rosenfield, Club Rules (New York: Warner Books, 1993). Marsha Kinder, Playing with Power (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993), 40-43.
  • The architecture machine group was the predecessor of their Media Lab. the Media Lab was widely popularized in the 1990s by business and technology publications such as Wired and Red Herring for a series of practical inventions in the fields of wireless networks, field sensing, web browsers and the World Wide Web.HyperCard was created by Bill Atkinson. Work for it began in March 1985 under the name of WildCard (hence the creator code of 'WILD'). In 1986 Dan Winkler began work on HyperTalk and the name was changed to HyperCard for trademark reasons. It was initially released in August 1987, with the understanding that Atkinson would give HyperCard to Apple only if they promised to release it for free on all Macs. Apple timed its release to coincide with the MacWorld Conference & Expo in Boston,Massachusetts to guarantee maximum publicity. HyperCard was a huge hit almost instantly. Many people who thought they would never be able to program a computer started using HyperCard for all sorts of automation and prototyping tasks, a surprise even to its creator. "cern.info.ch - Tim Berners-Lee's proposal". Info.cern.ch. (89) Sir Timothy John "Tim" Berners-Lee is an English computer scientist, MIT professor and the inventor of the World Wide Web. He made a proposal for an information management system in March 1989. Eventually it was realized that this filing system [hypercards or hyperlinks] could go beyond a local area network. All web aspects of transmedia were not fully operable in the 90s, due to the dot.com bubble. The dot-com bubble (also referred to as the Internet bubble and the Information Technology Bubble) was a speculative bubble covering roughly 1995–2000 (with a climax on March 10, 2000, with the NASDAQ peaking at 5132.52 in intraday trading before closing at 5048.62) during which stock markets in industrialized nations saw their equity value rise rapidly from growth in the more recent Internet sector and related fields. While the latter part was a boom and bust cycle, the Internet boom is sometimes meant to refer to the steady commercial growth of the Internet with the advent of the world wide web, as exemplified by the first release of the Mosaic web browser in 1993, and continuing through the 1990s.By the 2000s, WEB 2.0 caused transmedia to emerge stronger than ever. Spin-offs are usually linked to an institution in the fictional universe. MIT professor Henry Jenkins argued in favor of transmedia storytelling in the world of WEB 2.0. He said transmedia storytelling could make the characters more compelling. EndnotesNick Montfort; Noah Wardrip-Fruin, The New Media Reader (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2003), 253.David Needle, "HyperCard: Rumors or Reality", Computer Currents (August 1987.)James K. Galbraith; Travis Hale ”Income Distribution and the Information Technology Bubble.” University of Texas Inequality Project Working Paper (2004). Henry Jenkins "Transmedia Storytelling." Technology Review (January 2003).
  • The term "Web 2.0" was first used in January 1999 by Darcy DiNucci, a consultant on electronic information design (information architecture). In her article, "Fragmented Future", DiNucci writes: The Web we know now, which loads into a browser window in essentially static screenfuls, is only an embryo of the Web to come. The first glimmerings of Web 2.0 are beginning to appear, and we are just starting to see how that embryo might develop. The Web will be understood not as screenfuls of text and graphics but as a transport mechanism, the ether through which interactivity happens. It will [...] appear on your computer screen, [...] on your TV set [...] your car dashboard [...] your cell phone [...] hand-held game machines [...] maybe even your microwave oven.Tim Beners-Lee objects to the term Web 2.0 because his intention was for the world wide web of the 90s to always be prosumer based. Web 2.0 terminology went mainstream in a 2004 state of the internet interview. O'Reilly, Tim, and John Battelle. 2004. Opening Welcome: State of the Internet Industry. In San Francisco, California, October 5. Steven Case, the founder of the first internet company AOL, was a disciple of Toffler [and McLuhan’s] prosumerism theories from the 70s. In 2001, AOL’s prosumer philosophy merges with Warner Studios, becoming one of the largest media industries in the world – Time Warner. It later was considered the worst merger ever. Case resigned from Charimanship in 2005 but some of his philosophies still heavily influence their current success. [namely the battle for a large audience and a large community] This consequently results in using storyworlds that are already successful in another form of entertainment. The tech bubble in 1999-2000 coincides with the U.S. vs. Microsoft case. Out of this rubble, Google emerges and becomes a mega-firm. the actual reversal and subsequent bear market may have been triggered by the adverse findings of fact in the United States v. Microsoft case which was being heard in federal court. The findings, which declared Microsoft a monopoly, were widely expected in the weeks before their release on April 3. The following day, April 4, the NASDAQ fell from 4,283 points to 3,649 and rebounded back to 4,223, forming an intraday chart that looked like a stretched V. On March 20, 2000, after the NASDAQ had lost more than 10 percent from its peak, financial magazine Barron's shocked the market with its cover story "Burning Up". Sean Parker stated: "During the next 12 months, scores of highflying Internet upstarts will have used up all their cash. If they can't scare up any more, they may be in for a savage shakeout. An exclusive survey of the likely losers." The article pointed out: "America's 371 publicly traded Internet companies have grown to the point that they are collectively valued at $1.3 trillion, which amounts to about 8% of the entire U.S. stock market.“The founders created Google as a research project in the mid-90s but the project began preventing them from completing their studies. In 1999 they began making deals to sell. It soon became one of the few dot-coms to survive the 90s and in 2004 they went public. During that time it grew into a mega-firm. 2004 was also the time Facebook stepped on the scene. Both sites are prosumer based but has been at it longer .Google relates to Internet prosumer commodification in two ways: On the one hand it indexes user-generated content that is uploaded to the web and thereby acts as a meta-exploiter of all user-generated content producers. Without user-generated content by unpaid users, Google could not perform keyword searches. Therefore Google exploits all users, who create World Wide Web (WWW) content. On the other hand users employ Google services and thereby conduct unpaid productive surplus-value generating labour. Such labour includes for example: searching for a keyword on Google, sending an e-mail via GMail, uploading or searching for a video on YouTube, searching for a book on Google Print, looking for a location on Google Maps or Google Earths, creating a document on GoogleDocs, maintaining or reading a blog on Blogger/Blogspot, uploading images to Picassa, translating a sentence with Google Translate, etc. Google generates and stores data about the usage of these services in order to enable targeted advertising. It sells these data to advertising clients, who then provide advertisements that are targeted to the activities, searches, contents and interests of the users of Google services. Google engages in the economic surveillance of user data and user activities, thereby commodifies and infinitely exploits users and sells users and their data as Internet prosumer commodity to advertising clients in order to generate money profit. Google is the ultimate economic surveillance machine and the ultimate user-exploitation machine. It instrumentalizes all users and all of their data for creating profit.Google users are double objects of commodification: 1) they and their data are Internet prosumer commodities themselves, 2) through this commodification their consciousness becomes, while online, permanently exposed to commodity logic in the form of advertisements. Most online time is advertising time served by Google or other online advertising companies.Google and Time Warner introduced and enhanced several prosumer based methods of using the web and converging all media. Google began partnering with Time Warner and MySpace in 2005. They also acquired You Tube in 2006. Prosumerism is The term has also taken on multiple meanings in business and economics: the business sector sees the prosumer (professional–consumer) as a market segment, whereas economists see the prosumer (producer–consumer) as having greater independence from the mainstream economy. These differing meanings often describe the same people; consumers unusually interested in the products. It can also be used to differentiate the traditional passive consumer with an active consumer role more involved in the process, such as activity in the design or customization of the end product. Toffler describes the age of prosumption as the arrival of a new form of economic and political democracy, self-determined work, labour autonomy, local production, and autonomous self-production. Fuchs would argue that he overlooks how prosumption is used for outsourcing work to users and consumers, who work without payment. Thereby corporations reduce their investment costs and labour costs, jobs are destroyed, and consumers who work for free are extremely exploited. They produce surplus value that is appropriated and turned into profit by corporations without paying wages. Notwithstanding Toffler’s uncritical optimism, his notion of the “prosumer“ describes important changes of media structures and practices and can therefore also be adopted for critical studies. In Revolutionary Wealth, Toffler attempts to respond to some of these criticisms. The main one here being intellectual property. EndnotesDiNucci, Darcy "Fragmented Future.“ (1999): 32. Matthew A. Zook; Mark Graham, “The Creative Reconstruction of the Internet. Google and the Privatization of Cyberspace and DigiPlace.” Geoforum 38(2007): 1322-1343.David A. Vise, The Google Story (London: Macmillan, 2005).Jack Willoughby, “Burning Up.” Barron’s (March 2000).
  • MaterialsIdentify three trends of change or emerging issues, e.g., 1) Social Media 2) Economy 3) Crowd SourcingThese three trends should each represent a DIFFERENT “STEEP” category.These are the main external conditions that drive trends. These categories have also been called PEST, STEP, and STEEPL. The definitions are below. Social: Popularity and diversity are both signs of social force. Technological: “Technology may be the greatest single category of change drivers that we will cope with over the next millennium.”Economy: The global economy remains a headlining issue. China’s purchasing power will definitely shape the next 10-20 years. Environmental Forces: A stronger driver than climate change is the fear of limited oil reserves. The energy that runs most of the technology we take for granted is derived from oil. The oil shock of the 70s spawned most of the scenario planning we see today. Political: We see this happening in Chinese communities. Local communities consider the state as a father figure. The state also owns most business firms. The private firms, like Lenovo, depend in many ways on state patronage.EndnotesEndnotesMats Lindgren; Hans Banhold, Scenario Planning (New York: Palgrave Mamillan, 2003), 117.Thomas Chermack, Scenario Planning in Organizations (San Francisco: Berret-Koehler, 2011), 103. Michael Beer, Higher Ambition (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2011)166-167, compare with Bulke, CEO of Nestle, on page 98.Thomas Chermack, Scenario Planning in Organizations (San Francisco: Berret-Koehler, 2011), 104.  Gail Tverberg, “The Reality is, Our Economy Runs on Oil and We Need More” www.businessinsider.com7 February, 2012, http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-02-07/home/31011725_1_crude-oil-oil-prices-oil-consumption George S. Day; Paul J. Shoemaker, Peripheral Vision (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2006), 33. Also see Matthew R. Simmons, Twilight in the Desert (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2005). Ian Jeffries, Economic Developments in Contemporary China (New York: Taylor and Francis, 2011), 499.
  • Process, Version 2.0: using futures wheels• create a futures wheel based on each trendTake each trend one by one. Brainstorm five to seven primary impacts of each trend; make sure you push trends to their extreme, if logical, conclusions, assuming at least 30 years of change. Then, for each primary impact of each trend, brainstorm an additional three secondary impacts. Finally, if any tertiary impacts immediately spring to mind, list those as well. Do any of the impacts support or link to each other?Here are some crowd sourcing impacts worth considering: Crowd-sourcing brings a radical eco-system of innovation. This particular method has received its fair share of criticism. Some object to the fact that often it is consumers, or prosumers, that are coming up with the new ideas. These crowds are receiving low or no pay for their contributions. Facebook had this issue. Is this wrong? What about intellectual property? Von Hipple has found research that goes counter to these objections. In the U.K. they did a study and they found that 2.9 million users in the U.K. did some form of consumer innovation, but only 2% try to do some form of patent or intellectual property protection. Most crowds innovate for free because innovation does not always need profit motivation.Many prosumers simply want to customize the product so it will aid them the best. For example, Microsoft introduce the connect plug in to the Xbox 360 which allowed movement based control of the game. When users started improving on it, the company decided to start offering support to the users to improve. EndnotesJoel Ross, Andrew Zaldivar, Lilly Irani, Bill Tomlinson, M. Six Silberman, “Who are the Crowdworkers?” CHI: 2010 (April 10-15, 2010): 2863-2872.Eric von Hipple, “Comparing Business and Household Sector Innovation.” www.ssrn.comSeptember, 2010, http://ssrn.com/abstract=1683503.Martin Weller, The Digital Scholar (New York: Bloomsbury Publishing, 2011), see Rapid Innovation.Eric von Hippel, “People Don’t Need a Profit Motive to Innovate.”www.HBR.org. 1 November, 2011, http://hbr.org/2011/11/people-dont-need-a-profit-motive-to-innovate/ar/1
  • Review the futures wheels from all three trends for two or three minutes. Post the wheels from all three trends where the whole group can see them. Consider how the various impacts you’ve mapped for each trend might interrelate with those on the futures wheels of the other two trendshow will they affect each other?what new pattern results?what new opportunity/threat arises? • Create a cross-impact matrix thatcan assist in thinking through impacts of trend collisions and synergies.Here are some cross impact examples to think about.The main reason companies crowd source today is to gain innovation. Chris Anderson calls this crowd accelerated innovation. Others call this crowd sourcing. In the 70s, Toffler used the term prosumerism. With crowd sourcing, you split a task into smaller pieces and unleash it to millions of people around the world. Foldit uses the gaming crowd to cure diseases. Wikipedia’s 14 million+ articles are maintained by crowds. Duolingo uses crowd sourcing to translate business products into other languages. Threadless finds t-shirt designs to sell from submissions and voting by the crowd. 9-5 jobs were created and defined by the industrial age. As we move further and further away from that model “the costs of integration may exceed the value of … superspecialization.” Cornish predicted an extreme future that will radically change the innovation economy.In the late 70s Richard B. Fuller predicted a day when the dollar quotient would lose its value and knowledge would become the new economy. In the late 80s Zuboff echoed these sentiments, arguing that work and learning would become the one and the same.Then in the late 90s and early 2000s collective intelligence became the company’s “most valuable asset.”Because most knowledge only has a shelf life of three years, several ‘work while you learn’ educational organizations have developed all over the world. Duolingo, Khan Academy, Udacity and MITx are just a few in the States that offer free online education.Anyone can go to academicearth.com and watch thousands of video lectures from the world’s top scholars – for free. We’ve underestimated people’s willingness to help each other and overestimated the role of money as a motivator. Conventional wisdom regards “… institutions as being capable of more things than uncoordinated groups are, precisely because they are able to direct their employees.”In the future we have “… a situation where the loosely affiliated group can accomplish something more effectively than the institution can.”EndnotesEdward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (Bethseda: World Future Society, 2005), 46-47. Alvin Toffler, Future Shock (New York: Random House, 1970), 125.Alvin Toffler and Heidi Toffler, Revolutionary Wealth (New York: Doubleday, 2006), see ‘The Future of the Job.’Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future (Bethseda: World Future Society, 2005), 11-12.Richard B. Fuller, Critical Path (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1981), 200 – 202.ShoshanaZuboff, In the Age of the Smart Machine (New York: Basic Books, 1988), 395.T. A. Stewart, Intellectual Capital (London: Nicholas Brealey, 1997), 44.Michael J. Marquardt; Nancy O. Berger, Global Leaders for the 21st Century (Albany: SUNY Press, 2000), 11.Clay Shirky, Here Comes Everybody (New York: Penguin Books, 2009), See “Post Managerial Organization.”Ibid.
  • We’ve created and ranked your drivers and trends by using Manoa tools. Through this we have managed to project two plausible futures for the film and entertainment industry. In the desired future we see more of the present social media revolution. In the undesired future, we see an on demand revolution. Meeting together in theaters will heavily decline and be replaced with personal streaming channels of film and television shows. Television will have its own identity – just like the MAC and PC address. Smart TV will be able to connect with any identity in the present world. Examples:Smart GlassGoogle TVApple TVCBS connectABC and Second Screen TVRokuGoogle Glasses
  • The law of diffusion of innovation shows one way to reach mass-market success or mass-market acceptance of an idea. One way is to achieve this tipping point between 15 and 18 percent market penetration. So it's this here, this little gap that you have to close, as Jeffrey Moore calls it, "crossing the chasm." Because the early majority pragmatists will not try something until someone else has tried it first. And these guys, the innovators and the early adopters, they're comfortable making those gut decisions. They're more comfortable making those intuitive decisions that are driven by what they believe about the world and not just what product is available. This touches on McLuhan’s concept of the audience wanting to have a role in their entertainment. This also touches on Toffler’s concept of prosumerism. The on demand revolution would limit film releases to stories that have been heavily crowd sourced in social media platforms – like social TV.EndnotesGeoffrey A. Moore, Crossing the Chasm (New York: Harper Collins Publishers Inc., 2002).
  • In both scenarios, films will continue to be made. And, in both scenarios your company will benefit by investing in Social TV. With the on demand scenario, social tv will build a user generated content community that will help launch the future prosumer dependent film industry. In the ‘more of the same’ scenario there will be a continued increase in film releases and social media: indies and mega-brands alike. But even now film franchises have the potential to gain more profits from long-tail niche markets, found in social media and social TV. Amazon.com, Netflix and Wii represent examples that succeeded based on the long-tail method. Let’s say you’re not just a fan on Nintendo games for the current Wii but you also remember those cool games from the 90s like Burger Time. Their Long-Tail strategy now allows you to download that game onto your Wii and play. EndnotesChris Anderson, TheLong-Tail (New York: Hyperion, 2006).
  • These are the four major aspects of this workshop we will now open the floor for a short Q&A segment.

Transcript

  • 1. The Future of Social TV2012 WorkshopbyChester Branch
  • 2. Qualitative vs. Quantitative Methods Sense that the future is predictable. YourQuantitative company Qualitative Sense of multiple possibilities.
  • 3. 9. 12. Repeat A. D. Test cycleUse Define 8. 1. Scenario 10. 11. Define Strategy Communicate Stories limits 7. Scenario 2. Scenario Define Making Industry worlds Process 6. 3. Scenario Trends Logic C. 5. B. 4.Build Rank uncertainties Explore Uncertainties
  • 4. Step 1Define Project Parameters• Framing the question.Step 2Define the Industry Status Quo• Concept Mapping
  • 5. Step 3Trends / Driving Forces• S.T.E.E.P. Analysis.Step 4Determine Uncertainties and their Polarities• Driving force analysis.
  • 6. Step 5Rank Uncertainties• Force Field Analysis.Step 6-7Select Scenario Logic• 2 x 2 Matrix We will be using this• Fork in the Road one, in relation to• Structured Randomization backcasting
  • 7. Step 8Write Scenario Stories• Threats and opportunities for customers• Threats and opportunities for stakeholders.Step 9Testing Scenarios• Wind Tunneling
  • 8. Step 10Develop Strategy Implications• Keidel’s Organizational MatrixStep 11Communicate• Kotter’s ModelStep 12Repeat the Process• Double Loop Learning
  • 9. Certain Toolkits for the do we use When 4 to scenarios?levels of Uncertainty Occur 2 1 Low Uncertainty High Impact Matrix Impact 3 4 Uncertain to Occur
  • 10. Level 1 Dependable Outcome Clear View of the Future LowUncertainty
  • 11. Level 2 A This level introduces a limited set of outcomes.During Level 2 B One of which will occur. C
  • 12. Level 3 Outcomes indeterminate,but bounded in a range
  • 13. Level 4A limitless range of possible outcomes… true ambiguity... This is the highest level of residual uncertainty.
  • 14. Break Time• After the break, we will discuss a time series and identify some driving trends in Television, Film, and Computers.• Feel free to extrapolate any trends and apply them during your exercise.
  • 15. The beginning of Social Media. (1950s)• The air-force adapted the Whirlwind computer into a massive air defense system called SAGEThey spent 3 timesmore on thiscomputer than on theManhattan Project
  • 16. The beginning of Social Media (1950s) Enter DEC and video gamming theory.
  • 17. The beginning of Social TV (1950s)Jack Barry pioneeredinteractive TV. (21 theshow)He developed and hostedWinky Dink and You
  • 18. The beginning of Social TV (1950s)Disneyland opened and The MickeyMouse Club TV show launched as away to help promote and finance thepark. They were expanding their storyworld.The ethos was embodied by theMouseketeers who sold viewers ontheir brand.
  • 19. With electrictechnology, the consumer will become the producer. What we do as prosumers has social value. The Audience wants to have a role in their entertainment
  • 20. Digital McLuhan and Transmedia
  • 21. The McLuhan influence on Transmedia 60s-70s 00s 80s 90s ThisMcLuhan J. Gomez companypredicted Gomez works was a went on toWEB 2.0 student develop with /social Starlight Disney of Runner and Sony. media. McLuhan.
  • 22. The McLuhan influence on Transmedia 00s60s 70s 80s 99-01 Stewart This ARG went on to went on McLuhan Stewart develop to predicted was a Beast for influence WEB 2.0 student of A.I. all ARGs /social McLuhan. today. media.
  • 23. The Toffler influence on Transmedia 00s 70s 80s 90s Toffler Case foundedpredicted AOL and WEB Case was a merged with Case, and the ‘prosumer’2.0/social ‘disciple’ of Warner concept, influenced media. Toffler. Studios the largest media industry in the world.
  • 24. First Attempts at Transmedia (1970s)1976 Warner buys Atari becausevideo games are on the rise.The next year they introduceQube, the first interactive cable TVsystem.Warner loses 18.9m due toAtari/Nintendo wars. Warner sellsAtari to Tramiel.
  • 25. First Attempts at Transmedia (1970s)A year after Star Wars premiered, a newcharacter, Boba Fett, appeared in a TV special.Lucas called this ‘the expanded universe.’ (78)After viewers embraced this character, he wasgiven a significant film role. Lucas also releasedseveral comics and allowed for fan-fiction.In Japan, manga and anime properties likeGundam (79) spanned media, manifesting inTV, film, video games, and theme parks.
  • 26. Cross Media Explosion (80s-90s)Barry Diller develops high-conceptmarketing.Barry Diller also develops mega-branding and cross-mediastorytelling.FCC lifts ban on product-basedprogramming.
  • 27. Internet Explosion (80s-90s) Hypercard was the first form of IBM builds modemMIT(85) develops (89) Tim Berners- hyperlinks. Casetheir first Media Lee develops the Lab. partners with Lucas world wide web Films and begins (91). IM chats (85-86).
  • 28. Web 2.0Google, the first communitybased SEO, becomes a mega-firm and media convergence paves the way for more successful transmediastorytelling and distribution. (‘05 personalized SEOs)
  • 29. ManoaFuturesWheel Social Media Economy Crowd Sourcing
  • 30. Work forceFilm ScienceTV Crowd Sourcing Fashion Education
  • 31. Future Crowd Wheel Social Media Economy Sourcing Matrix Crowd What effects will What effects will Results of futures social media have the economy have Sourcing wheel on crowd of crowd sourcing? sourcing? What effects willSocial Media What effects will social media have Results of futures economics have on crowd wheel on social media? sourcing? What effects will Economy What effects will crowd sourcing Results of futures healthcare have have on wheel on economics? economics?
  • 32. • Break into two groups. Use Manoa Future Wheels as a tool to define and rank drivers and trends. Make a cross impact matrix.• From there we will create a fork in the road scenario logic for backcasting.• We will close by discussing possible strategies that can prepare your organization for a ‘dynamics as usual’ path and a ‘divergent’ path.
  • 33. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany This is a Parables Today Consultant’s adaptation of… Backcasting 2022 Desired Future ‘more of the same‘ Present Social Media Revolution Undesired Future ‘on demand revolution‘ Plausibility Check = Drivers = Obstacles = Overall Trends Dreborg (1996): Backcasting  complex and persistent problems are in focus, particularly useful when…  dominant trends are part of the problem,  external factors are present,  the need for major change exists,  the time frame and thematic focus allow for radical changes.
  • 34. Crossing the Transmedia Marketing Parables Chasm Today Consulting Mainstream Chasm Story fans Channel Surfers Pragmatists Conservatives Skeptics Early AdoptersComics, Online Film’s Opening Second Week in Netflix , HULU, Cable,Books, ARGs, Fan- Weekend theater, sometimes Direct TV,Fiction, Video Games, the second film.Apps, Social TV
  • 35. Transmedia Long Tail StrategyThe tail becomes bigger and longer in new markets (depicted inthe red line/arrow). Traditional models only focused on the‘hot’ market (depicted in the blue line/arrow). Opening Box- Office Social TV Social Media Parables Today Consulting
  • 36. By the end of To Recapthis workshop you should know more How the Sharing tools about… scenario from the 4 making levels of process uncertainty. works. Comparing Relating a quantitative time series of and media trends qualitative to your methods. company.