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Space Disney: A Scenario Planning Report
 

Space Disney: A Scenario Planning Report

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Scenario planning systematically examines the external environment. These plans search for potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments in areas of interest to an organisation. ...

Scenario planning systematically examines the external environment. These plans search for potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments in areas of interest to an organisation. The planning in this report exercise will cover the following steps: scoping, trend analysis, building scenarios, generating options, testing options, and the action plan.

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    Space Disney: A Scenario Planning Report Space Disney: A Scenario Planning Report Document Transcript

    • June 15 2012ScenarioPlanningScenario planning systematically examines the external environment.These plans search for potential opportunities, challenges, and likely Branch LDSLfuture developments in areas of interest to an organisation. Theplanning in this report exercise will cover the following steps: scoping, 707 Majortrend analysis, building scenarios, generating options, testing options,and the action plan. Project 1Reccomended Citation | Chester Elijah Branch, “Space Disney: Scenario Planning Report” Parables Today (June 2012).
    • Parables Today Table of ContentsTable of Contents.............................................................................................................................................2Intro to the 13-Step Workshop..........................................................................................................................3Scoping.............................................................................................................................................................4Concept Mapping ............................................................................................................................................5Trend Analysis..................................................................................................................................................8Driving Force Analysis......................................................................................................................................9Scenario Force Fields ....................................................................................................................................11Building Scenarios..........................................................................................................................................13Scenario Logics and Spaces..........................................................................................................................14WDC S.W.O.T. Analysis.................................................................................................................................17.......................................................................................................................................................................17Key Steps to Scenario Planning.....................................................................................................................18Test Options...................................................................................................................................................21Action Plan.....................................................................................................................................................24Moving Forward..............................................................................................................................................28Links...............................................................................................................................................................29http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/tools/scenario-planning/potential........................................................................29Sources Consulted.........................................................................................................................................30Endnotes........................................................................................................................................................31Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 2
    • Parables TodayIntro to the 13-Step WorkshopCAST MEMBERS: Chester Branch, Isaac Adjei Boadi, Rebecca Janiak, Shanta’ Harper, Jeffrey Suderman,Dustin Knutson, James Gorham, and Philip A FosterDisney Strategic Labs (DSL) | ImaginerINTERNAL MEDIA CONSULTING TEAM Scenario Planning: A 13-step workshop This guide will help participants follow the process of the Scenario workshop in May, but also, be helpful as a guide in decision recommendations and follow-through steps. *Adapted from Dr. Gary handouts given in the LDSL 707 Residency, May 7-12, 2012. Dr. Jay Gary adapted his handout from a book by P. Schwartz called The Art of the Long View and handouts from Dr. Peter Bishop. Dr. Bishop’s handouts are based on the GBN Scenario method.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 3
    • Parables TodayScoping1. Articulate the focal issue or strategic decision (up to 3 years out) that the scenarios are to illuminate for your client organization.Client name: The Walt Disney CompanyFor the year 2037 | 25 years from nowWhat is the question/issue you want to answer/address?Before launching our scenario planning exercise we scopedout the situation. Going through this process can determine ifscenario planning fits better than any other business plan.Sometimes the issue in question may not require futuresforecasting. If the issue only involves small changes tobusiness as usual, then another methodology would apply.We concluded that space travel, and investing in private spacetravel, qualified as a large scale investment. For Disney, thisissue was worthy of scenario planning. The team beganidentifying where we were currently. From there we projectedour future goals. After honing in on our focal question, we began our mini workshop. Should Disney Invest in Space Tourism? This was the question we worked from.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 4
    • Parables TodayConcept Mapping2. Create a concept map of your client organization and their industry. Idea Production Sale/Retail Customer Use End of LifeList the major actors that populate these competitivepositions in reference to your client organization. Parks/Resorts: Universal, Royal Caribbean Consumer Products: Viacom Media Networks: FOX, CBS Studio Entertainment: Time Warner Interactive Media: ViacomParables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 5
    • Parables Today i Porter’s 5 Forces Present 1. Technology Alliances 2. Travel 3. Transportation 4. Food Industry 5. Education 6. Hewlett Packard 7. Siemens 8. Kodak 9. Coca-Cola 10. McDonalds 11. UTV Software Communication (India) 12. Ford Motor Company Present 1. Families Customers 2. Teenagers/Tweens 3. Sports Fans 4. Science/Technology Enthusiast 5. Collectors 1. Virgin Atlantic Established 2. Warner Competitors 3. Universal Studios 4. Turner 5. Dream Works 6. Media Related / Television 7. Technology 8. Resort Vacation Companies / Travel Companies 9. MGM 10. Holy land Experience 11. PBS KidsParables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 6
    • Porter’s 5 Parables Today 1. Universal Studios Potential 2. NASA Entrants 3. Nickelodeon 4. Foreign Countries 5. Technology (Google, Amazon, Facebook) 6. Cruise lines (Royal Caribbean) 7. Boeing 8. Universities (Think-tanks, research) 9. Lockheed 1. Universal Present 2. Nickelodeon Substitutes 3. Six Flags Brand 4. Busch Gardens 5. Destination Events 6. Events in a Box 7. Apple 8. Virgin Atlantic 9. Cruise Lines (Royal Caribbean) 10. Airlines 11. Microsoft 12. Video Gaming 13. Movie-Theaters IMAX 3D/4D 14. Facebook – Social Media 15. YouTube 16. Google 17. National Parks 18. Television 19. Resorts All of the 5 ‘Major Categories’ mentioned in the workshop touch on the 5 Walt Disney Company (WDC) Markets: Media Networks Parks/Resorts Studio Entertainment Consumer Products Interactive MediaParables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 7
    • Parables Today Trend Analysis3. Brainstorm the major external trends in this industry over the next 20 years (identify trends, consider implications, analyze drivers). A company needs to be in equilibrium with these external drivers. ii Trend spotting simply amounts to collecting data on trends and events as they happen. Trend analysis finds ways to stay within that equilibrium. This highlights the crucial significance of an organization’s sense of higher ambition. Being driven by long-term purposes, and finding where your passions profitably intersect with your company’s area of capabilities, will keep Disney sustainable for the future.iii Social: Popularity and diversity are both signs of social force. Technological: “Technology may be the greatest single category of change drivers that we will cope with over the next millennium.” iv Economy: The global economy remains a headlining issue. China’s purchasing power will definitely shape the next 10-20 years. Environmental Forces: A stronger driver than climate change is the fear of limited oil reserves. The energy that runs most of the technology we take for granted is derived from oil.v The oil shock of the 70s spawned most of the scenario planning we see today.vi Political: We see this happening in Chinese communities. Local communities consider the state as a father figure. The state also owns most business firms. The private firms, like Lenovo, depend in many ways on state patronage.vii Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 8
    • Parables Today Driving Force Analysis 4. Identify the conditions shaping the future over the forecast period. You’ll notice that these eventsThese are possible begin to fit within certainstories that would groups, categories, or trends.make the headlines.And behind thosebroad, external,trends are veryspecific driving forces. viii Enter at least three constants in the scenario framework: Constants (statements of fact that will not change during the time horizon) -- 1. Kids 2. Technology Exists 3. Seasons 4. Aging 5. Economy – Supply/Demand 6. Desire for happiness / pleasure 7. Authority Structure 8. Need for food 9. Need for Education 10. Need to connect for relationships 5. Select the driving forces outside the organization (trends, events and issues) that are shaping the baseline future. Enter up to three of each of the scenario driving forces: Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 9
    • Parables TodayTrends ("more" or "less") -- (describe probable futures) 1. Increase in Technology 2. Cultural Stability +/- 3. National Stability +/- 4. Global Stability +/- 5. Disposable Income +/- 6. Increase in Personalization 7. Isolation/Socialization +/- 8. Changes in Isolation/Socialization +/- 9. Collaboration / Open Source +/- 10. Growth in Curiosity +/-Issues ("Should...) – (write out value questions affecting your industry) 1. Should we care about being “green”? 2. Should we care about product segregation? Availability to the masses? 3. Should we care about the value of currency 4. Should we produce offshore? 5. Should we be concerned with Government Regulation? 6. Should we be “Good Citizens” of space? 7. Should we be concerned with personal privacy? Use/Abuse 8. Should we use space for entertainment?Events (could be a newspaper headline in 10 years) -- (describe possible futures) 1. 2012 | Technology causes infertility 2. 2013 | WiFi Goes 5G 3. 2015 | WiFi Free 4. 2016 | Average home owns 2.2 Robots 5. 2020 | Virtual Reality 3D Video Conference Existing 6. 2020 | World Power Shortage 7. 2020 | Weight Tax Implemented 8. 2020 | Personal Computers Obsolete 9. 2021 | Cars are Obsolete 10. 2022 | Personal Computers Banned 11. 2022 | Technology Free Resorts 12. 2025 | The death of copyright 13. 2025 | 30 minute flight Atlanta to Beijing 14. 2025 | Space trash powers the globe These were the conditions our 15. 2025 | RFID/GPS Chips Mandated group brainstormed during the 16. 2025 | Orbiting Prisons workshop.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 10
    • Parables TodayScenario Force Fields6. List and rank the force fields (work from number 5) or axes that are both highly important in their impact and highly uncertain in their outcome (direction A & B refer to polarities)Force Field Analysis (conduct numerous driving vs. restraining force fields)Which forces will allow regulation to decrease OR customization to increase?Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 11
    • Parables Today These 2 force field models are more attenuated versions of the ones the group made during the workshop.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 12
    • Parables TodayBuilding Scenarios7. Build scenario logics that represent different continuums for the two highest ranked force fields (ie. rank the top fields in # 6; list the top two forces in the 1 & 2 spaces below, along with their polarities) .After various sessions of preparation we built the four scenarios above. Our group concluded that the x axiswould be comprised of varying degrees of regulation. The y axis would be comprised of different levels ofcustomization. The Customized Global Market represents the best case scenario for Disney. A GlobalMonarch or Global Tyranny represents the worst case scenario.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 13
    • Parables TodayScenario Logics and Spaces8. Create interesting and illustrative 2-3 word titles for each of the logics.9. Elaborate one of the four scenario spaces or logics into a complete story that shows how that specific scenario could plausibly emerge from the present. (Write only one story of at least 300 words, that corresponds to one logic) The quadrants above correspond to the quadrants on page 13.Genie – “your wish is my command” refers to a future that is highly customized and with low regulations. Theconsumers are the producers. [I will elaborate on the next page]Mother Gothel – “the plague” is in reference to the Tangled story where Gothel kept her family separatefrom the rest of the world with terror. This scenario argues that terrorism and nationalism will win out overglobalism.Sleeping Beauty – “One day” is a spiritual subtext referring to a group believing in something more than thephysical present. In this scenario oil shortages and identity theft forced everyone to go “low tech.” Theyadopted a more spiritual and communal society.Gaston – “Kill the Best” refers to how Gaston takes over the town violently by both demonizing andattempting to kill any opposition. In this scenario, everyone listens to one tyrant. If anyone opposes, they arekilled.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 14
    • Parables Today10. Scenario Title selected: “Genie” Story:Genie Scenario – “Your Wish is my command” [High Personalization – Low Regulation]In the Genie logic space, the current trend of Prosumerism continues to rise. This ushers in what Richard B.Fuller predicted as the knowledge economy.ix People develop innovative ways to deal with healthcare andthe environment – for free. x To paraphrase twitter co-founder Evan Williams, the easier it is to share andaccess information, the greater the level of goodness there is in the world.Everyone becomes a producer and consumer of information. In the 20th century, media made us better atconsuming through one-to-many communication. In the 21st century, media has made us better at creatingand sharing through many-to-many communication.xi Micro-blogs like Twitter win out over old media outletslike CNN, FOX News, and MSNBC. Life Magazine is the first to capitalize on this horizon change.While the old media tries to incorporate micro-blogs in their live shows, Life magazine becomes purely acurator of these micro-blogs. Life magazine becomes Life.com, going completely on-line. Smart glass,Tablets, and smart totems on street corners print “Life” 24/7, thereby eclipsing the old media.xiiSecond Life, a virtual on-line grid, partners with Life to give everyone their own work avatar. This allowsmulti-national corporations to form virtual business teams all over the world. They meet in virtual reality andcrowd source any and every product and project.xiiiGoogle and Bing compete with their “Knowledge Graph” and “Linked Data” software to unify all content.Apple continues to have more money in its treasury than the U.S. treasury.xiv As soon as it becomes the mostvaluable company in the world,xv Disney merges with Apple. iDisney makes a grab to acquire Bing as it iswinning the unified content race. Google attempts to sue Bing on intellectual property rights.During the biggest world court case in history, “Share Alike vs. Copyright,” Amazon continues to operateunder the radar. The Amazon “cloud,” operating solely by user generated content, becomes the universalcontent leader. Amazon acquires Life and Second Life. After Bing wins their land mark case in 2025,copyright is declared illegal and a hindrance to freedom by the Secretary of Justice.Second Life develops cosmetic brain surgery. This device replicates the brain’s 5 senses in the virtual world.By 2035, the knowledge economy has been replaced with the content economy. People barter and tradestories, experiences, and memories. You can virtually be anywhere at any time. Disney’s Space Resortpartners with Amazon becoming the biggest virtual reality market on earth. Disney Space becomes theworld’s largest space ship. It continues travelling space to bring new experiences to its customers.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 15
    • Parables Today11. Cast that story line into another form (i.e., a memo, dialogue or news release set in the future, etc.) that illustrates how the future might actually appear in that scenario. The following is a live, Chatroulette-style, 2025 Airtime stream. . from2025 Airtime.com is a live video chat Tony: I think Bing did steal Google’s software. format in association with Anne: Steal? How can it be stealing if they offer the software for Facebook. It is continually being free? re-tooled. Chess: I’m kinda torn between the two concepts of share alike and copyright. The initial difference between this Tony: Hey what time were they supposed to make the ruling? and Skype is that clicking next Chess: I think it’s supposed to be now. could send you to someone outside Anne: I’m going to try to switch over and see. of your social graph. [They click next] Eventually this may be used as We see a clean phone video stream of Bing lawyers smiling and switching channels of live real- patting Gates and others on the back. time interviews. The phone whips around as we hear off screen “This is a landmark case. Bing just won the case using open-source and share alike That is to say, I’m live chatting case studies. They even called into question the purpose of copyright – “ with my friends and I want more info on the subject we’re [They click back] discussing. If I click next, I’ll get Chess: I can’t believe Gates is still alive. linked to someone Anne: Remember when they said Microsoft was dead? Wow. documenting/reporting on the Tony: I can’t believe they’re calling into question copyright. issue. [They click next] In this scenario it is a landmark Sec of Justice: For those of you who didn’t click next I’m appearing court case: Bing v. Google. here to make an announcement. After the recent Bing v. Google ruling, the government has decided to declare Copyright illegal. For a longer briefing on this, you can click on our Facebook wall or upload the rulings from Wikipedia. Thank you. God Bless. [They click back] Chess: Did you just hear? Anne: Yeah copyright is illegal. Tony: remember this moment y’all. This is huge. Chess: No, I was talking about the iDisney and Amazon partnership. They’re now the world leader of content. Today intellectual property died. The future is experience. Anne: Anyone else going to the concert tonight? Tony: Yeah, I’ll be there. Chess: Just send me the highlights. I’m sleepy. Laters... [They click next]Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 16
    • Parables Today WDC S.W.O.T. Analysis and Strategic Implications12. Describe the strategic implications (S.W.O.T. analysis below) for your clients’ focal issue (point #1), in view of your selected (point #9-10) long-term scenario. 1. WDC is among the most popular brand names in the world. They are ranked among the top 10 global brands.xvi 2. They have high operation costs. The poor working conditions in factories around the world could pose a huge PR problem as people become more globally aware. And their top management changes often. 3. They show potential to continue marketing in untapped countries. App gaming programs and UGC (user generated content) promises to reduce costs for production in the future. Expanding resorts and parks to include virtual rides promises more Disney themed attractions. 4. More culture clashes in the future could erupt. Nationalism and terrorism could break out all over the world. Disney also faces steep competition from Paramount and Universal.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 17
    • Parables TodayKey Steps to Scenario Planning Scenario Planning: Key Characteristics13. Describe what you learned about the future A methodology for strategy development useful that you did not know, understand or realize before you did this exercise. for organisations, programmes or projects acting in a highly dynamic environment taking complex and often risky decisions Provides rigour as well as opportunities to draw We learned successful ways to plan for the future. upon the creativity of those involved, resulting in new views and interpretations on importantTen Tips for Successful Scenarios external developments 1. Stay focused Typically involves the development of visual representations of possible futures 2. Keep it simple Creative yet structured approach is popular with 3. Keep it interactive marketing managers, programme managers and 4. Plan to plan and allow enough time product developers that are looking for new markets, ideas, services or projects. 5. Dont settle for a simple high, medium and low For more, see the Links on page 28. 6. Avoid probabilities or most likely plots 7. Avoid drafting too many scenarios 8. Invent catchy names for the scenarios 9. Make the decision makers own the scenarios 10. Budget sufficient resources for communicating the scenariosxvii...and some traps to avoid • Dont treat scenarios as forecasts • Dont construct scenarios based on too simplistic a difference - such as optimistic and pessimistic • Make the scenarios global enough in scope • Ensure you focus the scenarios in areas of potential impact on the enterprise • Treat scenarios as an informational or instructional tool rather than for participative learning and/or direct strategy formation • Ensure adequate process for engaging management teams in the scenario planning process • Dont stint on the imaginative stimulus in the scenario design • Use experienced, or at least well-briefed, facilitator(s)Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 18
    • Parables TodayRECAP So far, this report has covered steps 1-4. It will now delve into steps 5 and 6. Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 19
    • Parables TodayParables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 20
    • Parables TodayTest OptionsIdentify and discuss potential implications and impacts of scenarios.This SWOT graph below illustrates how to potentially ‘wind tunnel’ some of the major threats.A. With your high brand recognition and gaming partnerships, you can create API space themedadventures.B. Expand your global heath and home furnishing missions to factories.C. Use social media outlets and situational leadership to break down cultural divide. [On page 21-22, I willelaborate on this as a wind tunnel exercise].D. Work with NGOs to develop a Global Code of Conduct.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 21
    • Parables TodayWind Tunnelling Quadrant CA real potential threat in the near future is more war in the Middle East. This could cause nations all over toshrink back from a Global mindset and towards a more nationalist perspective. Terrorism could sparkdistrust. Oil reserves could be cut off. This could threaten our very livelihood, let alone investment plans in‘Disney Space.’While this has potential to shake up our Disney’s futures model, Disney has the ability to weather throughthese culture clash storms.They learned from the mirror trap in Euro Disney.xviii Now they hire native marketing managers to workwithin their overseas companies. There’s also a situational leadership approach that can be applied todifferent cultures.Global leaders should listen and adapt as they engage with different cultures.xix Doing this “enables allmembers … to more effectively understand the basis of their own behaviour and more meaningfully andsuccessfully enhance relationships with one another.” xx Hersey and Blanchard, pioneers of situationalleadership, have divided cultural environments into “four distinct categories of directive and supportivebehaviours.”xxi There method works on both a local and global scale.xxiiWhere a culture rests on the context scale above determines the best approach. Ting-Toomey and Kurogi’s‘face framework’ serves as a coherent counterpart to the Hersey and Blanchard categories. Ting-Toomeyhas created several variations of this model but they all essentially represent the same four faces.xxiii WhileTing-Toomey and Kurogi use four categories to describe these high and low-context culturesxxiv, Hersey andBlanchard use four categories to describe how global leaders should best approach these context cultures.The more face-giving cultures defend and support the other person’s need for inclusion. Face-giving cultureshave a collective mindset and desire defined roles that will include everyone. A telling approach to leadershipcomplements this culture. Face-assertion focuses more on the individual’s desire to have a role in the group.Some individuals in the culture may feel like outsiders. This leadership will use a selling approach toreassure them that they belong. xxvParables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 22
    • Parables TodayFace-saving cultures fight for other people to have freedom and space. This culture, often found in the West,requires a more participatory approach. These leaders do not involve themselves in the day-to-day tasks. Ahands-off approach focuses more on bringing out the skills of the group through “listening, praising, askingfor input, and giving feedback.”xxviFace-restoration ranks the lowest among the context cultures. In this culture, each individual fights for moreautonomy. Leaders in this culture take more of a delegating approach. At this point the leader lets hisfollowers “run their own show”xxvii because the workers have a crystal clear understanding of the goals.Social media methods are currently at work to prevent these kinds of nationalist scenarios.xxviii The socialmedia strategies Disney has access to could also bridge the institutionalized enmity.xxix But even if thepolitical leaders attempt to black out forms of social media diplomacy, sources like twitter have created workaround software for offline diplomacy between countries.[speak to tweet endnote] In the case that none ofthese acts of diplomacy work, Disney and Playdom could potentially work on social gamming projectsxxx thatwill discover renewable forms of energy that surpass the value of oil.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 23
    • Parables TodayAction PlanWhat should we do (or not do) to be successful in this scenario?To make strategic preparations for the ‘Genie’ scenario we should use long tail transmedia storytelling. Thisway, the story worlds that Disney currently controls can be expanded to such an extent that second lifeavatars can be created for hard core fans to enjoy. The Avengers is a great example. They used several ofthese marketing tactics to get people in theatre during their historical box-office week end. But they alsoneed to continue spinning that story off into rebooted comics, video games, fan-fiction, and Netflix AvengersSeries. For example, their Avengers Assemble cartoon was released to Netflix before the film. But it appearsthe series only served as an animated version of the live action movies that have already come out.The series should have continued. There should still be new episodes playing the same time the movie isout. They should also have more fan-fiction involvement, creating potentially new characters that couldappear in the Avengers sequel. There should be ARGs for the sequel. These strategies could launch adeeper Thor universe for Disney Space.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 24
    • Parables TodayAnother strategy for the ‘Genie’ scenario would be the Blue Ocean Strategy. Nadler & Tushman argue thatthe last source of competitive advantage lies in the organizational design.xxxi Keidel makes the case that byseeing organizational patterns, one can prevent competitive disadvantage and leverage a competitiveadvantage in said organization’s favour.xxxii Kim and Mauborgne’s ‘Blue Ocean Strategy’ shows howinnovation oftentimes supersedes the so called competitive advantage.xxxiiiIf Amazon is truly the future leader of content, this strategy will benefit Disney in two ways. Disney andViacom have been competing with each other to grab shares of the mobile gaming market. Nick/Viacomlaunched addictinggames.com for the iphone. Disney also launched mobile games for iphone, driod,blackberry and Java Brew. Instead of competing in a flooded market, Disney could work with the newAmazon Smartphonexxxiv and not only capture a new market place but also begin a long-term partnership withthem.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 25
    • Parables TodayThe picture above metaphorically represents three dials or gears on a giant wheel of innovation andcreativity. If you speed up those dials of crowd, light, and desire, the wheel of creativity and innovation turnsfaster.Although bigger crowds bring in more innovation, the crowds are mostly composed of other kinds of people.Each person represents an invaluable component to the process. Anderson says the light speaks to thewillingness to share and open up your project in these social media outlets. This is called liquidnetworking.xxxv Once the sharing reaches large social media audiences, it is either ignored or applauded.Positive feedback dials up the desire.People continue to share out of a desire for global recognition from the crowd of commenters, trend-spotters,and cheerleaders. It then becomes a perpetual, self-fuelling machine. It is also a self-cleaning machinebecause the bad ideas lose the crowd and light or quickly collaborate and improve. This is becoming thenew medium for both indie and mainstream film companies. Cisco estimates that by as soon as 2013, 90%of all IP traffic will be video sharing.xxxviJonathan Chu is a filmmaker and screenwriter best known for directing dance films like Step Up 2 and 3.What he noticed online was the CAI method working with dancers on YouTube. Kids in Japan were watchingdance videos and building on them. People in Detroit and California would then watch these and remix them.Chu called this a global laboratory. He eventually recruited the most innovative artists on YouTube andformed LXD. LXD became one of the most popular a web series ever launched on Hulu. Hulu is partiallyowned by the Walt Disney Company.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 26
    • Parables TodayThey could use this same method for developing characters and stories through social gaming and fan-fiction. Through crowd-sourcing, Disney could create new space themed story worlds for Disney Dream andeventually Disney Space.In 2011-12 Disney joined the cruise lines as an expansion of the Disney Parks and Resorts. They developedDisney Dream and Disney Fantasy. The interior cabins of the Dream already have ‘virtual portholes’ thatallow voyagers to see action outside of the ship, as well as a few beloved Disney characters floating by thewindow. The ship also features a high-tech teen lounge. This sets the stage for similar virtual scenarios withthe Space Disney experience.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 27
    • Parables TodayMoving ForwardWe must always bear in mind that scenarios do not represent truths - they are based on what we know aboutwhat is happening. We must continue to monitor trends. According to Mintzberg “when companiesunderstand the difference between planning and strategic thinking, they can get back to what the strategy-making process should be.” xxxvii Today, instead of looking straight ahead, companies also pay attention toperipheral S.T.E.E.P. developments.xxxviii Many companies are still late at picking up on the signals. Forexample, Microsoft missed out on open software and GE missed out on LED traffic lights. xxxix Theprivatization of space travel has emerged as one of those peripheral developments where Disney’s passionscould profitably intersect with their current areas of capabilities. This investment could potentially makeDisney sustainable in the distant future.Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 28
    • Parables TodayLinksJISC Users and Innovation Programme,[http://www.jisc.ac.uk/whatwedo/programmes/programme_users_and_innovation.aspx].JISC Tools for Scenario Planninghttp://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/tools/scenario-planning/potentialParables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 29
    • Parables TodaySources ConsultedPeter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View (New York: Doubleday, 1991).Jenny Beery; Esther Eidinow; Nancy Murphy (Editors) “The Mont Fleur Scenarios.” Deeper News (Vol 7, No1. 1992)Gaston Berger, Phénoménologies du Temps et Prospectives (Paris: Presse Universitaires de France, 1964).Peter Bishop; Andy Hines; Terry Collins,“The Current State of Scenario Development.” Foresight (March2007): 5-25.Bertrand de Jouvenel, The Art of Conjecture (New York: Basic Books, 1967).Hugues de Jouvenel, “An Invitation to Foresight.” Futuribles Perspectives, (Special Issue 2004).J Diffenbach, “Corporate Environmental Analysis in Large US Corporations.” Long Range Planning (16, 31984): 107-116.Liam Fahey; Robert M. Randall (eds), Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios.(New York:John Wiley & Sons, 1998).Michel Godet, Scenarios and Strategic Management (London: Butterworth Scientific, 1987).Mchel Godet, Creating Futures (London: Economica, 2006).Herman Kahn; A. J. Weiner, The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty Years (NewYork: Macmillan, 1967).Elzbieta Krawczyk; John Ratcliffe, “Imagine Ahead, Plan Backwards” Futures Academy, Dublin Institute ofTechnology (January 2005).Pentti Malaska; Ilkka Virtanen, “Theory of Futuribles” Futura (February 2005): 10-28.Joe Willmore, “Scenario Planning: Creating Strategy for Uncertain Times” Information Outlook (September2001).Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 30
    • Parables TodayEndnotesParables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | 31
    • i Michael Porter, “The Five Competitive Forces That Shape Strategy.” www.hbr.org January, 2008,http://hbr.org/2008/01/the-five-competitive-forces-that-shape-strategy/ar/1ii Thomas Chermack, Scenario Planning in Organizations (San Francisco: Berret-Koehler, 2011), 103.iii Michael Beer, Higher Ambition (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2011)166-167, compare withBulke, CEO of Nestle, on page 98.iv Thomas Chermack, Scenario Planning in Organizations (San Francisco: Berret-Koehler, 2011), 104.v Gail Tverberg, “The Reality is, Our Economy Runs on Oil and We Need More” www.businessinsider.com 7February, 2012, http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-02-07/home/31011725_1_crude-oil-oil-prices-oil-consumptionvi George S. Day; Paul J. Shoemaker, Peripheral Vision (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2006), 33.Also see Matthew R. Simmons, Twilight in the Desert (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2005).vii Ian Jeffries, Economic Developments in Contemporary China (New York: Taylor and Francis, 2011), 499.viii Mats Lindgren; Hans Banhold, Scenario Planning (New York: Palgrave Mamillan, 2003), 117.ix Richard B. Fuller, Critical Path (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1981), 200 – 202.x Gabe Zichermann; Christopher Cunningham, Gamification by Design (Sebatopol: O’ Reilly Media, 2011).xi Clay Shirky, Cognitive Surplus (New York: Penguin Press, 2010), See ‘A New Resource’.xii Keith Stuart, “Smart Glass, Xbox 360 and the battle for the Connected Livingroom” www.guardian.co.uk 5June, 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/gamesblog/2012/jun/05/smartglass-xbox-newsxiii Haya El Nasser, “The Office is Shrinking as Tech Creates Workplace Everywhere” www.usatoday.com 5June, 2012, http://www.usatoday.com/money/workplace/story/2012-06-05/tech-creates-workplace-everywhere/55405518/1xiv “Apple Now has More Money than the US.” www.straitstimes.com 30 Jul, 2011,http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/TechandScience/Story/STIStory_696512.htmlxv Ben Parr, “Apple is 50 Billion away from Becoming the World’s Most Valuable Company.”www.mashable.com 20 Jul, 2011, http://mashable.com/2011/07/20/apple-exxon/xvi Jacquelyn Smith, “The World’s Most Reputable Companies” www.forbes.com 7 June, 2012,http://www.forbes.com/sites/jacquelynsmith/2012/06/07/the-worlds-most-reputable-companies/2/xvii Jay Ogilvy; Peter Schwartz, “Plotting Your Scenarios.” Learning from the Future (New York: Wiley, 1998),77-80.xviii Saj-niole Joni, “Three Traps Facing New Global Leaders.” www.hbr.org. 7 November, 2011,http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/11/three_traps_facing_new_global.htmlxix Ricky W. Griffin, Fundamentals of Management (Princeton: Cengage Learning, 2007), 334.xx Mika Gabrielsson, John Darling, Hannu Seristo, “Transformational Team-Building Across CulturalBoundaries” Team Performance Management (October 2008), 238.xxi Paul Hersey; Ken Blanchard, Leadership and the One Minute Manager (New York: William Morrow,1999).xxii Robert N. Lussier; Christopher F. Achua, Leadership: Theory, Application, Skill Development (Cincinnati:South-Western College Pub., 2001), 186.
    • xxiii Stella Ting-Toomey, “A Matrix of Face: An Updated Face Negotiation Theory.” Theorizing AboutIntercultural Communication (Thousand Oaks: Sage Publishing, 2005), 71-92.xxiv Stella Ting-Toomey; A. Kurogi, “Facework Competence in Intercultural Conflict.” International Journal ofIntercultural Relations (1998), 187-225.xxv Peter G. Northouse, Leadership Theory and Practice (Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications, 2009), 91.xxvi William A Callahan, Contingent States (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 2004), 142-144.xxvii Select Knowledge, Managing Teams (University of Cambridge: Select Knowledge Limited, 2001), 73.xxviii Alexander Marquardt, “Israel Loves Iran Campaign Gains Force” www.abcnews.go.com 23 March, 2012,http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/03/israel-loves-iran-campaign-gains-force/xxix Trita Parsi, A Single Roll of the Dice (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2012), See Trapped in aParadigm of Enmity.xxx Jane McGonigal, Reality is Broken (New York: Penguin Press, 2011), See: Gamer’s Mass Participation.xxxi David A Nadler; Michael L Tushman, Competing by Design (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997),See chapter 12, ‘Lesson in Design.’xxxii Robert W. Keidel, Seeing Organizational Patterns (San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler, 1995), See page 16under ‘Three ways to fail.’xxxiii W Chan Kim; Renee Mauborgne, Blue Ocean Strategy (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2005).xxxiv JP Mangalindan, “Is Amazon Making a Smartphone?” www.tech.fortune.cnn.com 18 November, 2011,http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/11/18/amazon-making-smartphone/xxxv Steven Johnson, Where Good Ideas Come From (New York: Riverhead Books, 2010).xxxvi Erick Schonfeld, “Cisco: By 2013 Video Will Be 90 Percent of All Consumer IP Traffic.”www.techcrunch.com 9 June, 2009, http://techcrunch.com/2009/06/09/cisco-by-2013-video-will-be-90-percent-of-all-consumer-ip-traffic-and-64-percent-of-mobile/xxxvii Henry Mintzberg, “The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning.” Harvard Business Review (January-February1994): 3.xxxviii Bill Ralston, Ian Wilson, The Scenario Planning Handbook (Mason: Thomas South-Western, 2006), 89.xxxix George S. Day; Paul J. Shoemaker, Peripheral Vision (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2006),120-126.