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談判研究之分析架構
談判研究之分析架構
談判研究之分析架構
談判研究之分析架構
談判研究之分析架構
談判研究之分析架構
談判研究之分析架構
談判研究之分析架構
談判研究之分析架構
談判研究之分析架構
談判研究之分析架構
談判研究之分析架構
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談判研究之分析架構

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談判研究之分析架構

談判研究之分析架構

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  • 1. Framework for Negotiation Study 談判研究之分析架構 江炯聰教授 2009/02/23
  • 2. 談判之 4 種型態 Transaction 交易 Relationship 關係 Deal Making 完成交易 Deal Making Parties will not interact in the future, but there are no preexisting animosities. Relationship Building Parties anticipate a long-term relationship, but its basis has not yet been determined. Dispute Resolution 化解爭端 Dispute Resolution Relationship is likely to be characterized by animosity, but parties will not interact after resolution Conflict Management The current dispute is likely to be part of a longer-term pattern of contention, which may create barriers to agreement.
  • 3. Phases and Core Tasks 談判階段與核心工作 Source: Michael Watkins (2002) Away from the Table 談判桌外 At the Table 談判桌上 Diagnosing the situation 診斷情勢 Analyze the structure of the negotiation and develop hypotheses about counterparts’ interest and alternatives. Learn in order to test and hone your hypothesis. Shaping the structure 架構議題 Shape who participates and how current negotiations are linked to others. Work to set the agenda and frame what is at stake. Managing the process 管理進程 Plan how to learn and influence counterparts’ perceptions of the bargaining range. Influence counterparts’ perceptions of what is acceptable. Assessing the results 評估結果 Establish goals before going to the table. Between sessions, evaluate how you are doing. Periodically assess what is happening so you can make midcourse corrections.
  • 4. Main Questions 主要問題 <ul><li>Dispute or deal? 交易或爭端 ? </li></ul><ul><li>More than two parties? 有關各方 ? </li></ul><ul><li>Are the parties monolithic? 內部一致或分歧 ? </li></ul><ul><li>Is the game repetitive? 重複賽局 ? </li></ul><ul><li>Are there linkage effects? 互有關聯 ? </li></ul><ul><li>More than one issue? 單項多項議題 ? </li></ul><ul><li>Is an agreement required? 須達成協議 ? </li></ul><ul><li>Are threats possible? 可運用威脅 ? </li></ul><ul><li>Are there time constraints or time-related costs? 時間限制或相關 ? </li></ul><ul><li>Are the contracts binding? 協議有約束力 ? </li></ul><ul><li>Are the negotiations private or public? 談判者為私人或公眾人物 ? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the group norms? 團體規範 ? </li></ul><ul><li>Can the external helper be used? 可引進外來協助 ? </li></ul>
  • 5. Framework 研究架構 <ul><li>BATNAs (Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement) 最佳替代方案 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What will the respective parties do if they don’t come to agreement? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Parties 參與談判各方 ( 公開與隱藏 ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Who are the real parties in the negotiation? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Interests 利益與需求 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What are their fundamental needs and priorities? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Value 價值創造與分配 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How can value be created and who is likely to get it? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Barriers 障礙與克服 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What obstacles might prevent agreement (or maximization of joint value) and how can they be overcome? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Power 權力與影響力 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How can the various parties influence the negotiation process and its outcome? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ethics 倫理與道德 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What is the right thing to do? </li></ul></ul>
  • 6. BATNAs 最佳替代方案 <ul><li>Choice 選擇 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Accepting a deal vs. pursuing more attractive alternatives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Zone of Possible Agreement (ZOPA) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Bottom line 底線 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dollar price, time pressure, relationships, risk tolerance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Danger of rigid bottom line: becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy and blinding to creative solutions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Science 科學 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Decision analysis and microeconomics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Art 藝術 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Imagining creative alternatives and weighing relative value </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Over-optimism: plaintiffs and defendants in lawsuits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Understanding the other side’s BATNA and how it perceives your own </li></ul></ul>
  • 7. Parties 參與談判各方 <ul><li>Identifying current and potential parties 台前與潛在成員 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Influence and authority 影響力與權威 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Organization and relations 組織與關係 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Visibility 可見度 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stakeholders: pros and cons 利害關係 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Exposing potential pitfalls and opportunities 可能問題與機會 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Side effects and long-term effects 副作用與長期影響 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Externalities 外部效應 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Changing the basic game 基本賽局結構 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2 nd sourcing, market vs. hierarchy, merger and acquisition </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Shaping the environment 環境 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Atmosphere 氛圍 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Public relations and opinions 公共關係與輿論 </li></ul></ul>
  • 8. Interests 利益與需求 <ul><li>Underlying interests 內涵 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on interest, not positions 關注利益而非立場 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Failure: lack of insight, unwillingness to test assumptions or to question company policy 失敗原因 : 未檢驗假設與政策 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Assessing interests 評估 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>BATNAs and players 最佳替代方案與參與談判各方 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Before and during negotiation 談判前與進行中 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>At the end when agreements are being refined and implemented 協議擬訂與執行時 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Evolving interests 演化發展 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Process of discovery in negotiation 談判中發現 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adapting strategy to changing goals and circumstances 策略隨目標與情境調整 </li></ul></ul>
  • 9. Value 價值創造與分享 <ul><li>Creation (expanding pie) 創造價值 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Capitalizing on differences 利用差異創造價值 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Valuation, expectations, discount rates, attitudes toward risk 估價 期望值 折現率 對風險之態度 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New methods for more dimensions and more issues 新方法發現新向度與新議題 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Not necessarily by finding common ground 未必須有共識 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Distribution (dividing pie) 分配價值 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Conflict resolution 解決爭端 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Managing the tension 管理緊張關係與壓力 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Information revelation: critical needs? lack of good alternatives? 顯示關鍵需求與有無良好方案 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Brainstorming and problem-solving atmosphere 腦力激盪與問題解決氛圍 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pareto optimal point Pareto 最佳點 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mutual understanding of priorities 彼此了解優先輕重緩急 </li></ul></ul>
  • 10. Barriers 障礙 <ul><li>Strategic behavior 策略性行為 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Overplaying hands 過度操作 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Painting oneself into corners 作繭自縛 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Haggling too much 過度討價還價 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Psychological or interpersonal 心理性與人際關係 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Trust: earlier experiences, social stereotypes 信任問題 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emotions: defensiveness, hostility, large stakes 情緒問題 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Institutional 體制性 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Corporate policy 政策 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Legal constraints 法律 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovations in deal making and dispute resolution 創新 </li></ul></ul>
  • 11. Power 權力與影響力 <ul><li>BATNA: strength and weakness 最佳替代方案強弱 </li></ul><ul><li>Situations turning upside down 情勢變化影響消長 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Banks and clients </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Chaos on one side 某方混亂 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1979 Iranian hostage: Iranian students/government vs. US </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nothing to lose </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Time horizon and patience 時間壓力與耐心 </li></ul><ul><li>Attacking the other side’s BATNA 攻擊另方最佳替代方案 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Retaliation and battles of principle 報復與開戰原則 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Costly: strikes, war (politics by other means), lawsuits 各類成本 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Brinkmanship 邊緣戰略 </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge, skill, strategic vision, creativity to persuasiveness and self-confidence 知識 專業 遠見 創造力 說服力 自信心 </li></ul>
  • 12. Ethics 倫理道德 <ul><li>Candor 坦誠 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Evasion or silence, lying, honesty </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Fairness 公平 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Caveat emptor, buyer beware </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term reputation, cheating (“Pigs get fat; hogs get slaughtered.”)? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Utilitarian outlook, communitarian view (at what expense) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Force and pressure 強迫與壓力 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Opportunistic behavior, discriminatory pricing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Impact on bystanders 對旁觀者影響 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Legal, political, and other concerns (e.g., externalities) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Principal-agent conflicts 委託人代理人衝突 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Conflict of professional opinions (e.g., lawyers, mediators) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Conflict of personal value and moral standards </li></ul></ul>

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