Impacts of Global Warming:                     Reasons For Hope                               Robert Cahalan              ...
Heritage .. Science“Global warming isthe first environmental forecast based on physical reasoning—the greenhouse effect an...
Models ensure consistency of observations with basic physical laws,And forecast future scenarios that depend on assumed hu...
Air Temperature Near Surface                             Glaciers                   Specific                              ...
Earthobservatory.nasa.gov   847 stories in 2011     ~3.2/business day       1,139 images     54 blog entries   10 in-depth...
The Climate is Changing•   Temperatures are rising•   Ice is melting•   Sea levels are rising•   The ocean is acidifying  ...
Temperatures are risingEarth’s surface temperature has risen 0.6°C~1.1˚ F since 1950. The three major surface temperature ...
Temperatures are risingEarth’s surface temperature has risen 0.6°C~1.1˚ F since 1950. The three major surface temperature ...
Temperatures are rising                                      Quiz:                                      Approximately how ...
Temperatures are rising                                      Quiz:                                      Approximately how ...
& Precipitation                             Temperatures are rising                                         ^Statewide ran...
Departures in temperature (deg C)Sea Level ( mm) and Snow Cover (km2)From the 1961 to 1990 average                        ...
How has Earth’s sea ice responded?          Rapid warming in the Arctic particularly has led to the opening up of sea rout...
Quiz: Of thetotal surfacearea of Earth,the 48 contiguousstates of the USAhas an area that isclosest towhat percentage?(h) ...
Quiz: Of thetotal surfacearea of Earth,the 48 continuousstates of the USAhas an area that isclosest towhat percentage?(h) ...
Is global warming likely to have been induced by our Sun?
Solar Energy Input to Earth has an 11-year cycle, but no detectable trend :
Is global warming likely to have been induced by our Sun?All regions warmed at& near the surface.Yet thestratosphere coole...
Heritage ..                Denial                 News headline –> “Global Warming - Sorry Al, its the Sun!”          “Acc...
The Role of Human Beings  Causes of Climate   Change  • It is very likely that most of the    climate change in the curren...
Carbon isotopes show that new atmospheric CO2 is from fossil fuels.       Carbon from fossil fuels returned to the atmosph...
Deep Time: Human Forced Changes are Rapid                                                    Small human population       ...
Rising Ocean CO2  Falling pH• Oceans acidify   • Corals and Shells Dissolve
"Bottom line: The ocean -C life support system                             our-- is in trouble; therefore so are we. Tippi...
Survival of Species“The Bog Turtle”       Formerly common throughout the Chesapeake Watershed.       Now one of the 25 mos...
Survival of Species                                                  Millennium                                           ...
What can be done to address these challenges? Can individuals actuallymake a difference? Is there a legitimate reason for ...
What are our chances? The Power of Community:How Cuba Survived Peak Oilhttp://www.powerofcommunity.org/                   ...
A possible future•    Montreal Protocol has already improved our Ozone Layer•    Now need new international cooperation fo...
Knowing is a key. But is knowing enough? We must   activate ourselves and others to move towards solutions.   Those of us ...
Emergent SpeciesHiding in Plain Sight, a New Frog Species With a Weird Croak Is Identified in New York City               ...
Let us ask the right questions, and               begin to listen to Nature in a new way.“How do we love all the children ...
“..When I was less than a year old, before I could talk, …, I was ina pram outside the grocery store. … A dragonfly began ...
Alarming ‘dead zone’ grows in the ChesapeakeBy Darryl Fears, July 24, 2011A giant underwater “dead zone” in the Chesapeake...
THE DISMAL DECLINE OF THE BAY HAS LED THESE PROUD SMITH ISLAND WATERMEN  AND WOMEN TO GIVE UP WORK ON THE BAY, LEAVE THEIR...
CBSNews.com      February 29, 2012 6:15 PMPITTSBURGH — GenOn Energy Inc. plans to close five of its older coal-fired power...
What are our chances?                        Beware of false hopes.• Geoengineering will save us. – But isn’t that partly ...
What are our chances?  How To Build Community:The Syracuse Cultural WorkersTurn off your TV*Leave your houseKnow your neig...
What are our chances?                       Turning false hopes around:• One person turning out a lightbulb 1 hour a day  ...
What are our chances?    Turning around:                        49
What are our chances?                  My personal reason for hope:• Known Unknown – 96% of all mass/energy• Sensitivity t...
What are our chances?  Musicians United to Sustain the EnvironmentSongs For The Earth: A Tribute To Rachel Carson         ...
What are our chances?                               Turning around:“We are made of water, flowing water, Sun and salt, win...
What are our chances?    Turning around:                        53
What can we do?             My personal opinion as a citizen:• Think Globally, Act Locally – http://pumas.nasa.gov on “lea...
Climate ChallengesWill we wipe out …     Or ride the wave?Little drops of water,        “Some force within me rejected dea...
Holocene Lasted 10,000 Years. Will the Anthropocene?                   Adapt, Mitigate, Observe – Persist!                ...
• Rio de Janiero                                                                                             Nominated Wom...
NASA’s Kepler mission found a candidate planet, 99% similarity with Earth.Orbits an unremarkable red star in constellation...
Oh my children, where air we going on this mighty river of earth,a-borning, begetting, and a-dying, the living and the dea...
HeritageI shall not leave these prisoning hillsThough they topple their barren heads to level earthAnd the forests slide u...
Thank you!             61
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Impacts of Global Warming: Reasons For Hope

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  • See Ecological Impacts of Climate Change booklet, p. 4-7 Temperatures are rising: Average global surface temperature has risen ~1.3°F since 1850. If emission rates for greenhouse gases continue on their current track, models indicate that the globe will be 4.3 to 11.5°F warmer by 2100 than it was in 1990. Sea levels are rising: Warmer temperatures not only cause glaciers and land ice to melt (adding more volume to oceans) but also cause seawater to expand in volume as it warms. Under a “business-as-usual” greenhouse gas emissions scenario, models indicate that sea levels could rise 2 feet or more by 2100 compared to 1990 levels. The ocean is acidifying: Much of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity has already been taken up by the ocean, thus moderating the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, as carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater, it forms carbonic acid, acidifying the ocean. Ocean acidification will likely cause serious harm to marine organisms such as corals, lobsters, and sea urchins. Water cycle changes: The seasonal rhythms of streams and rivers have changed as winter precipitation falls increasingly as rain instead of snow, and as earlier spring temperatures cause snow in the mountains to melt earlier and faster. Warmer temperatures also mean higher evaporation rates and thirstier plants and people, increasing demands for water. Projections indicate that on average dry areas will tend to get drier, and wet areas will tend to get wetter. Extreme weather: It is considered very likely that increasing global temperatures will lead to higher maximum temperatures, more heat waves, and fewer cold days over most land areas.
  • Migration and nesting of birds is driven by temperature, and many species will be “committed to extinction” if not actually extinct, by end of this (21 st ) century.
  • Including new blog: Earth Matters Blog entries 2011: EF: 28; EM: 26; NFF 70 (in 6 campaigns)
  • See Ecological Impacts of Climate Change booklet, p. 4-7 Temperatures are rising: Average global surface temperature has risen ~1.3°F since 1850. If emission rates for greenhouse gases continue on their current track, models indicate that the globe will be 4.3 to 11.5°F warmer by 2100 than it was in 1990. Sea levels are rising: Warmer temperatures not only cause glaciers and land ice to melt (adding more volume to oceans) but also cause seawater to expand in volume as it warms. Under a “business-as-usual” greenhouse gas emissions scenario, models indicate that sea levels could rise 2 feet or more by 2100 compared to 1990 levels. The ocean is acidifying: Much of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity has already been taken up by the ocean, thus moderating the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, as carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater, it forms carbonic acid, acidifying the ocean. Ocean acidification will likely cause serious harm to marine organisms such as corals, lobsters, and sea urchins. Water cycle changes: The seasonal rhythms of streams and rivers have changed as winter precipitation falls increasingly as rain instead of snow, and as earlier spring temperatures cause snow in the mountains to melt earlier and faster. Warmer temperatures also mean higher evaporation rates and thirstier plants and people, increasing demands for water. Projections indicate that on average dry areas will tend to get drier, and wet areas will tend to get wetter. Extreme weather: It is considered very likely that increasing global temperatures will lead to higher maximum temperatures, more heat waves, and fewer cold days over most land areas.
  • See Ecological Impacts of Climate Change booklet, p. 4-7 Temperatures are rising: Average global surface temperature has risen ~1.3°F since 1850. If emission rates for greenhouse gases continue on their current track, models indicate that the globe will be 4.3 to 11.5°F warmer by 2100 than it was in 1990. Sea levels are rising: Warmer temperatures not only cause glaciers and land ice to melt (adding more volume to oceans) but also cause seawater to expand in volume as it warms. Under a “business-as-usual” greenhouse gas emissions scenario, models indicate that sea levels could rise 2 feet or more by 2100 compared to 1990 levels. The ocean is acidifying: Much of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity has already been taken up by the ocean, thus moderating the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, as carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater, it forms carbonic acid, acidifying the ocean. Ocean acidification will likely cause serious harm to marine organisms such as corals, lobsters, and sea urchins. Water cycle changes: The seasonal rhythms of streams and rivers have changed as winter precipitation falls increasingly as rain instead of snow, and as earlier spring temperatures cause snow in the mountains to melt earlier and faster. Warmer temperatures also mean higher evaporation rates and thirstier plants and people, increasing demands for water. Projections indicate that on average dry areas will tend to get drier, and wet areas will tend to get wetter. Extreme weather: It is considered very likely that increasing global temperatures will lead to higher maximum temperatures, more heat waves, and fewer cold days over most land areas.
  • See Ecological Impacts of Climate Change booklet, p. 4-7 Temperatures are rising: Average global surface temperature has risen ~1.3°F since 1850. If emission rates for greenhouse gases continue on their current track, models indicate that the globe will be 4.3 to 11.5°F warmer by 2100 than it was in 1990. Sea levels are rising: Warmer temperatures not only cause glaciers and land ice to melt (adding more volume to oceans) but also cause seawater to expand in volume as it warms. Under a “business-as-usual” greenhouse gas emissions scenario, models indicate that sea levels could rise 2 feet or more by 2100 compared to 1990 levels. The ocean is acidifying: Much of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity has already been taken up by the ocean, thus moderating the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, as carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater, it forms carbonic acid, acidifying the ocean. Ocean acidification will likely cause serious harm to marine organisms such as corals, lobsters, and sea urchins. Water cycle changes: The seasonal rhythms of streams and rivers have changed as winter precipitation falls increasingly as rain instead of snow, and as earlier spring temperatures cause snow in the mountains to melt earlier and faster. Warmer temperatures also mean higher evaporation rates and thirstier plants and people, increasing demands for water. Projections indicate that on average dry areas will tend to get drier, and wet areas will tend to get wetter. Extreme weather: It is considered very likely that increasing global temperatures will lead to higher maximum temperatures, more heat waves, and fewer cold days over most land areas.
  • See Ecological Impacts of Climate Change booklet, p. 4-7 Temperatures are rising: Average global surface temperature has risen ~1.3°F since 1850. If emission rates for greenhouse gases continue on their current track, models indicate that the globe will be 4.3 to 11.5°F warmer by 2100 than it was in 1990. Sea levels are rising: Warmer temperatures not only cause glaciers and land ice to melt (adding more volume to oceans) but also cause seawater to expand in volume as it warms. Under a “business-as-usual” greenhouse gas emissions scenario, models indicate that sea levels could rise 2 feet or more by 2100 compared to 1990 levels. The ocean is acidifying: Much of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity has already been taken up by the ocean, thus moderating the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, as carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater, it forms carbonic acid, acidifying the ocean. Ocean acidification will likely cause serious harm to marine organisms such as corals, lobsters, and sea urchins. Water cycle changes: The seasonal rhythms of streams and rivers have changed as winter precipitation falls increasingly as rain instead of snow, and as earlier spring temperatures cause snow in the mountains to melt earlier and faster. Warmer temperatures also mean higher evaporation rates and thirstier plants and people, increasing demands for water. Projections indicate that on average dry areas will tend to get drier, and wet areas will tend to get wetter. Extreme weather: It is considered very likely that increasing global temperatures will lead to higher maximum temperatures, more heat waves, and fewer cold days over most land areas.
  • See Ecological Impacts of Climate Change booklet, p. 4-7 Temperatures are rising: Average global surface temperature has risen ~1.3°F since 1850. If emission rates for greenhouse gases continue on their current track, models indicate that the globe will be 4.3 to 11.5°F warmer by 2100 than it was in 1990. Sea levels are rising: Warmer temperatures not only cause glaciers and land ice to melt (adding more volume to oceans) but also cause seawater to expand in volume as it warms. Under a “business-as-usual” greenhouse gas emissions scenario, models indicate that sea levels could rise 2 feet or more by 2100 compared to 1990 levels. The ocean is acidifying: Much of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity has already been taken up by the ocean, thus moderating the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, as carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater, it forms carbonic acid, acidifying the ocean. Ocean acidification will likely cause serious harm to marine organisms such as corals, lobsters, and sea urchins. Water cycle changes: The seasonal rhythms of streams and rivers have changed as winter precipitation falls increasingly as rain instead of snow, and as earlier spring temperatures cause snow in the mountains to melt earlier and faster. Warmer temperatures also mean higher evaporation rates and thirstier plants and people, increasing demands for water. Projections indicate that on average dry areas will tend to get drier, and wet areas will tend to get wetter. Extreme weather: It is considered very likely that increasing global temperatures will lead to higher maximum temperatures, more heat waves, and fewer cold days over most land areas.
  • See Ecological Impacts of Climate Change booklet, p. 4-7 Temperatures are rising: Average global surface temperature has risen ~1.3°F since 1850. If emission rates for greenhouse gases continue on their current track, models indicate that the globe will be 4.3 to 11.5°F warmer by 2100 than it was in 1990. Sea levels are rising: Warmer temperatures not only cause glaciers and land ice to melt (adding more volume to oceans) but also cause seawater to expand in volume as it warms. Under a “business-as-usual” greenhouse gas emissions scenario, models indicate that sea levels could rise 2 feet or more by 2100 compared to 1990 levels. The ocean is acidifying: Much of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity has already been taken up by the ocean, thus moderating the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, as carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater, it forms carbonic acid, acidifying the ocean. Ocean acidification will likely cause serious harm to marine organisms such as corals, lobsters, and sea urchins. Water cycle changes: The seasonal rhythms of streams and rivers have changed as winter precipitation falls increasingly as rain instead of snow, and as earlier spring temperatures cause snow in the mountains to melt earlier and faster. Warmer temperatures also mean higher evaporation rates and thirstier plants and people, increasing demands for water. Projections indicate that on average dry areas will tend to get drier, and wet areas will tend to get wetter. Extreme weather: It is considered very likely that increasing global temperatures will lead to higher maximum temperatures, more heat waves, and fewer cold days over most land areas.
  • 2008 saw a slight recovery in sea ice cover, but is 2 nd lowest on record. Sea ice does not directly change sea level, but once it departs from Greenland, that great continental ice mass will accelerate dramatically its melt. Melting of all Greenland can potentially can raise sea level almost 7 meters globally. 2 meter of rise is expected in this century alone, and that will cover many island and coastal regions.
  • 2008 saw a slight recovery in sea ice cover, but is 2 nd lowest on record. Sea ice does not directly change sea level, but once it departs from Greenland, that great continental ice mass will accelerate dramatically its melt. Melting of all Greenland can potentially can raise sea level almost 7 meters globally. 2 meter of rise is expected in this century alone, and that will cover many island and coastal regions.
  • Note in the bottom curves the impact of eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo volcanoes (labelled E and P) and their temporary warming influence on their lower stratosphere, opposite to global warming.
  • Note in the bottom curves the impact of eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo volcanoes (labelled E and P) and their temporary warming influence on their lower stratosphere, opposite to global warming.
  • Note in the bottom curves the impact of eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo volcanoes (labelled E and P) and their temporary warming influence on their lower stratosphere, opposite to global warming.
  • Migration and nesting of birds is driven by temperature, and many species will be “committed to extinction” if not actually extinct, by end of this (21 st ) century.
  • Note in the bottom curves the impact of eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo volcanoes (labelled E and P) and their temporary warming influence on their lower stratosphere, opposite to global warming.
  • See Ecological Impacts of Climate Change booklet, p. 5 Although scientific knowledge of climate is far from complete, the uncertainties concern the details: the scientific community is highly confident in the basic conclusions. The physical processes that cause climate change are scientifically well documented: both human activities and natural variability are contributing. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose documents are considered the most authoritative source for information on the “state of the science” on climate change, it is very likely that most of the observed warming over the past 50 years is the result of increased greenhouse gases generated by human activities. Numerous expert reports from the National Research Council have supported this conclusion as well. The release of greenhouse gases has increased significantly since the Industrial Revolution, mostly from the burning of fossil fuels for energy, agriculture, industrial processes, and transportation. Carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas, is increasing in the atmosphere faster than at any time measured in the past, having grown by about 35 percent since 1850. Two other greenhouse gases, methane and nitrous oxide, are present in the atmosphere at much lower concentrations than carbon dioxide but have increased rapidly. Methane has increased by 150 percent; in addition, it is 25 times more effective per molecule at trapping heat than carbon dioxide. Nitrous oxide, nearly 300 times more effective, has increased by more than 20 percent.
  • Migration and nesting of birds is driven by temperature, and many species will be “committed to extinction” if not actually extinct, by end of this (21 st ) century.
  • Migration and nesting of birds is driven by temperature, and many species will be “committed to extinction” if not actually extinct, by end of this (21 st ) century.
  • See Ecological Impacts of Climate Change booklet, p. 4-7 Temperatures are rising: Average global surface temperature has risen ~1.3°F since 1850. If emission rates for greenhouse gases continue on their current track, models indicate that the globe will be 4.3 to 11.5°F warmer by 2100 than it was in 1990. Sea levels are rising: Warmer temperatures not only cause glaciers and land ice to melt (adding more volume to oceans) but also cause seawater to expand in volume as it warms. Under a “business-as-usual” greenhouse gas emissions scenario, models indicate that sea levels could rise 2 feet or more by 2100 compared to 1990 levels. The ocean is acidifying: Much of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity has already been taken up by the ocean, thus moderating the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, as carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater, it forms carbonic acid, acidifying the ocean. Ocean acidification will likely cause serious harm to marine organisms such as corals, lobsters, and sea urchins. Water cycle changes: The seasonal rhythms of streams and rivers have changed as winter precipitation falls increasingly as rain instead of snow, and as earlier spring temperatures cause snow in the mountains to melt earlier and faster. Warmer temperatures also mean higher evaporation rates and thirstier plants and people, increasing demands for water. Projections indicate that on average dry areas will tend to get drier, and wet areas will tend to get wetter. Extreme weather: It is considered very likely that increasing global temperatures will lead to higher maximum temperatures, more heat waves, and fewer cold days over most land areas.
  • Migration and nesting of birds is driven by temperature, and many species will be “committed to extinction” if not actually extinct, by end of this (21 st ) century.
  • Migration and nesting of birds is driven by temperature, and many species will be “committed to extinction” if not actually extinct, by end of this (21 st ) century.
  • Migration and nesting of birds is driven by temperature, and many species will be “committed to extinction” if not actually extinct, by end of this (21 st ) century.
  • Migration and nesting of birds is driven by temperature, and many species will be “committed to extinction” if not actually extinct, by end of this (21 st ) century.
  • Migration and nesting of birds is driven by temperature, and many species will be “committed to extinction” if not actually extinct, by end of this (21 st ) century.
  • Migration and nesting of birds is driven by temperature, and many species will be “committed to extinction” if not actually extinct, by end of this (21 st ) century.
  • GLOBAL -> LOCAL Water controls Energy 90% Fresh Water = ICE RIVERS, AQUIFERS
  • Migration and nesting of birds is driven by temperature, and many species will be “committed to extinction” if not actually extinct, by end of this (21 st ) century.
  • Migration and nesting of birds is driven by temperature, and many species will be “committed to extinction” if not actually extinct, by end of this (21 st ) century.
  • Migration and nesting of birds is driven by temperature, and many species will be “committed to extinction” if not actually extinct, by end of this (21 st ) century.
  • Migration and nesting of birds is driven by temperature, and many species will be “committed to extinction” if not actually extinct, by end of this (21 st ) century.
  • Prior water quality criteria applied to the Chesapeake Bay were based on the assumption that all areas in the Bay were identical and did not take into account the natural variability found in the Bay ’ s waters. New water quality criteria – dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a and water clarity – vary based on the needs of a healthy ecosystem. By analyzing the relationship between these three criteria, scientists are able to understand and monitor the more complex processes of the Bay ecosystem. Design and implementation of tributary strategies to meet these new, more appropriate criteria will enable the states and the District of Columbia to remove the Bay and its tidal tributaries from the impaired waters list.
  • Prior water quality criteria applied to the Chesapeake Bay were based on the assumption that all areas in the Bay were identical and did not take into account the natural variability found in the Bay ’ s waters. New water quality criteria – dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a and water clarity – vary based on the needs of a healthy ecosystem. By analyzing the relationship between these three criteria, scientists are able to understand and monitor the more complex processes of the Bay ecosystem. Design and implementation of tributary strategies to meet these new, more appropriate criteria will enable the states and the District of Columbia to remove the Bay and its tidal tributaries from the impaired waters list.
  • “ The Clock of the Long Now” is discussed by Stewart Brand as a “Ted Talk” on iTunes, or at http://ted.com See also http://longnow.org Neal Stephenson's new book Anathem is inspired in part by The Clock of the Long Now. To read about our ancestor ’s “clock of the long now” at Newgrange, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newgrange
  • Vernal Equinox Tropical Depression over SA
  • Remember, that the contiguous (48 state) USA covers less than 2% of the Earth ’s surface area, so USA-mean temperature and precipitation is _not_ representative of global mean climate change, especially as there are many regional influences, not the least of which is ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation).
  • Remember, that the contiguous (48 state) USA covers less than 2% of the Earth ’s surface area, so USA-mean temperature and precipitation is _not_ representative of global mean climate change, especially as there are many regional influences, not the least of which is ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation).
  • Ccc march2012

    1. 1. Impacts of Global Warming: Reasons For Hope Robert Cahalan Chief of NASA-Goddard Climate & Radiation Laboratory Co-founder of Chesapeake Education, Arts, and Research Society (CHEARS.org)• Global disruptions of Earths climate and biosphere are leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapses, depletion of fish and forests, loss of fresh water, ocean acidification and species extinctions. What can be done to address these challenges? Can individuals actually make a difference? Is there a legitimate reason for hope?
    2. 2. Heritage .. Science“Global warming isthe first environmental forecast based on physical reasoning—the greenhouse effect and itsintensification as IR atmospheric opacity increases—rather than on extrapolating observedpatterns of past behavior.Anthropogenic warming was not unambiguously detected until nearly the end of the 20thcentury, well after most experts knew it was coming.Interestingly, forecast meteorologists, despite their familiarity with weather and theatmosphere, are at least as skeptical of global warming as the general public; so, to someextent, are geologists.” – Steven Sherwood, Physics Today, October 2011 2
    3. 3. Models ensure consistency of observations with basic physical laws,And forecast future scenarios that depend on assumed human choices.
    4. 4. Air Temperature Near Surface Glaciers Specific (Troposphere) (Glacier Mass Balance) Humidity 4 Sets of Data Temperature Over Oceans Snow Cover (March-April, Northern Hemisphere) 2 Sets of Data Sea-Surface Temperature Sea-Level Sea-ice Ocean Heat Land Surface Air Content Temperature Over Land 3 Sets of Data AGU – Predicting and Managing Extreme EventsObservations considered together form a convincing scenario of human-induced warming adapted from Lubchenco (2011)
    5. 5. Earthobservatory.nasa.gov 847 stories in 2011 ~3.2/business day 1,139 images 54 blog entries 10 in-depth features
    6. 6. The Climate is Changing• Temperatures are rising• Ice is melting• Sea levels are rising• The ocean is acidifying Temperature rise, indicated by color (red=higher rate of increase). Earth’s surface temperature has risen ~1.3˚ F since 1850. Image courtesy of the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere & Ocean, U. of Washington.
    7. 7. Temperatures are risingEarth’s surface temperature has risen 0.6°C~1.1˚ F since 1950. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC,GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 – 0.17°C (0.28 – 0.30°F) per decade sincesatellite measurements began in 1979. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 – 2011, classified by phase of the El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
    8. 8. Temperatures are risingEarth’s surface temperature has risen 0.6°C~1.1˚ F since 1950. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC,GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 – 0.17°C (0.28 – 0.30°F) per decade sincesatellite measurements began in 1979. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 – 2011, classified by phase of the El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year E P 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) 1957: IGY, SolarMax and the air pressure of the overlying 1967: Budyko GW atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
    9. 9. Temperatures are rising Quiz: Approximately how many of the top 10 hottest years on E P record have occurred in the past 10 years?1957: IGY, SolarMax 1967: Budyko GW (h) 0 (i) 1 (j) 5 (k) 10
    10. 10. Temperatures are rising Quiz: Approximately how many of the top 10 hottest years on E P record have occurred in the past 10 years?1957: IGY, SolarMax 1967: Budyko GW (h) 0 (i) 1 (j) 5 (k) 10 (9) The ten hottest years on record are, in order 2010 and 2005 (tie), 1998, 2003, 2002, 2009, 2006, 2007, 2004, and 2001.
    11. 11. & Precipitation Temperatures are rising ^Statewide ranks for the average March to August 2011 precipitation for the U.S. States from Ohio to Vermont set new records for the highest in 117 years, while Texas and New Mexico set new records for the lowest. On the national scale in the U.S., entrenched political agendas are in denial about our responsibility for global climate change. However, in the northern New England states, communities are adapting to ongoing regional climate change, because the change in the seasons, as well as the increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, are readily apparent to state government and to citizens with connections and roots in the outdoors. -- Alan K. Betts
    12. 12. Departures in temperature (deg C)Sea Level ( mm) and Snow Cover (km2)From the 1961 to 1990 average ^ & Sea Level Temperatures are rising ^ IPCC 2007 & Snow is falling
    13. 13. How has Earth’s sea ice responded? Rapid warming in the Arctic particularly has led to the opening up of sea routes in thearea. Both the Northern Sea Route (above Russia and Scandinavia) and the Northwest Passage(above Alaska and Canada) have seen substantial increases in shipping over the past few years.The Northern Sea route in particular is being targeted as a route for tanker and bulk traffic.Shipping through the Northern Sea Route increased by three times between 2010 and 2011. Due to procedural objections by mostly non-polar states and the industry lobby, theInternational Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Nations body tasked with developingshipping regulations, shelved the development of the environmental section of the Polar Codeuntil 2013, increasing the risk of harm to both the Arctic and Antarctic. –World Wildlife Foundation
    14. 14. Quiz: Of thetotal surfacearea of Earth,the 48 contiguousstates of the USAhas an area that isclosest towhat percentage?(h) 1%(i) 5%(j) 10%(k) 20%
    15. 15. Quiz: Of thetotal surfacearea of Earth,the 48 continuousstates of the USAhas an area that isclosest towhat percentage?(h) 1% (1.6%)(i) 5%(j) 10%(k) 20%Go to URL: wolframalpha.comEnter“area of usa/world”“area of (contiguous usa)/world”
    16. 16. Is global warming likely to have been induced by our Sun?
    17. 17. Solar Energy Input to Earth has an 11-year cycle, but no detectable trend :
    18. 18. Is global warming likely to have been induced by our Sun?All regions warmed at& near the surface.Yet thestratosphere cooled themost at highest altitude:This is not consistent with solar warming,but is predicted by greenhouse warming. IPCC 2007
    19. 19. Heritage .. Denial News headline –> “Global Warming - Sorry Al, its the Sun!” “According to Robert Cahalan, climatologist at NASA’s Goddard Space FlightCenter ‘For the last 20 to 30 years, we believe greenhouse gases have been the dominantinfluence on recent climate change.’ This may not come as such a big surprise to those whowerent so ready to swallow the Al Gore theory.” … blah, blah, blah! … – Ian Brockwell, News Blaze, June 07, 2009 19
    20. 20. The Role of Human Beings Causes of Climate Change • It is very likely that most of the climate change in the current era is the result of human activities. – Human activities have increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Figure adapted from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science – These gases trap heat and cause Basis. Working Group 1 Contribution to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Figure SPM.5. the Earth to warm. Cambridge University Press.During pre-industrial Holocene, CO2 remained within 10% of 280 ppm.Since 1850, CO2 rapidly increased more than 30%, & forecast to double by 2100.Doubling might be avoided if humans choose not to pursue “business as usual.”
    21. 21. Carbon isotopes show that new atmospheric CO2 is from fossil fuels. Carbon from fossil fuels returned to the atmosphere in combustion is depleted in both 13C and 14C.
    22. 22. Deep Time: Human Forced Changes are Rapid Small human population 2000 generations ago … Ice Ages … We are here. Past 10,000 years: global temperature relative to peak pre-industrial Holocene. Prior to 1850, Holocene was cooler than the Eemian interglacial. Post-industrial Holocene – the Anthropocene – is warmer than the Eemian. During the Eemian, Greenland melted, global sea level rose more than 20 feet. An additional 1°C warming could push us over a “tipping point.” adapted from Hansen & Sato (2011)
    23. 23. Rising Ocean CO2  Falling pH• Oceans acidify • Corals and Shells Dissolve
    24. 24. "Bottom line: The ocean -C life support system our-- is in trouble; therefore so are we. Tipping pointsare imminent, but there is time to reverse thedecline and secure an enduring place forhumankind within the systems that sustain us -- oureconomies, health, security and most importantly,life itself. Knowing is the key."Sylvia Earle at The Economists World Oceans Summit
    25. 25. Survival of Species“The Bog Turtle” Formerly common throughout the Chesapeake Watershed. Now one of the 25 most endangered turtles in the world. This hand-sized turtle inspired our CHEARS logo.“Maryland darter” Only endemic vertebrate in Maryland. Last seen in Deer Creek in 1988. The IUCN has declared this fish species extinct. The United States Fish and Wildlife Service has not, and keeps it on the Endangered Species List.
    26. 26. Survival of Species Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, www.millennium assessment.org“Business As Usual” scenario for 2100: Global warming ~ 3°C, Likely extinctions ~ 50%“Alternative” scenario for 2100: Global warming ~ 1°C, Likely extinctions ~ 10%
    27. 27. What can be done to address these challenges? Can individuals actuallymake a difference? Is there a legitimate reason for hope? Goddard Climate & Radiation Laboratory branch CS roles, issues & concerns Strengths Challenges Opportunities Threats Ash Wednesday Storm, March 6-8, 1962 -------------------- 50 years ago, Ocean City was washing away -------------------- – Baltimore Sun, March 5, 2012 Visit baltimoresun.com at http://www.baltimoresun.com
    28. 28. What are our chances? The Power of Community:How Cuba Survived Peak Oilhttp://www.powerofcommunity.org/ 33
    29. 29. A possible future• Montreal Protocol has already improved our Ozone Layer• Now need new international cooperation for: – Renewable energy development. – Energy conservation/efficiency. – Energy system transitions, land use change patterns, sea-level rise mitigation. – Regional responses tuned to regional changes. – Water quality, conservation, and distribution – …• A Sustainable Alternative: Human society taking coordinated action to adapt to and mitigate expected climate changes. “Above all, reducing the risk of climate change requires collective action. It requires cooperation between countries, through international frameworks that support the achievement of shared goals. It requires a partnership between the public and private sector, working with civil society and with individuals. It is still possible to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, but it requires strong and urgent collective action. Delay would be costly and dangerous.” [emphases added] - The Stern review (2007)
    30. 30. Knowing is a key. But is knowing enough? We must activate ourselves and others to move towards solutions. Those of us in denial, our eyes must open. Those of us in despair, sometime we cry, sometimes laugh in our despair. To go on, to survive, we must find hope, and courage. Let’s share with each other a dream of recovery. Let’s join hands with each other, with all species. The collapse, collapses, are arriving. Together, we shall survive.“The now emerging failure of growth means our current model ofsocial and economic progress is now in the messy and painfulprocess of dying. The only choices we get to make are how andwhen we change, not whether. We have to redesign the economy,and with it much of our politics, personal expectations, and market,to fit in with the immovable physical reality of a finite planet.” – Paul Gilding The Great Disruption: Why the Climate Crises WillBring On the End of Shopping and the Birth of a New World.
    31. 31. Emergent SpeciesHiding in Plain Sight, a New Frog Species With a Weird Croak Is Identified in New York City – ScienceDaily (Mar. 14, 2012)Catherine E. Newman, Jeremy A. Feinberg, Leslie J. Rissler, Joanna Burger, H. Bradley Shaffer. A new species of leopard frog (Anura: Ranidae) from the urban northeastern US. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution, 2012; 63 (2): 445 DOI: 10.1016/j.ympev.2012.01.021
    32. 32. Let us ask the right questions, and begin to listen to Nature in a new way.“How do we love all the children of all species for all time? …Consider a tree.Design something that makes oxygen, sequesters carbon, fixes nitrogen, distillswater, accrues solar energy as fuel, builds complex sugars as food, createsmicroclimates, changes colors with the seasons, and self replicates.” – William McDonough Author of “Cradle to Cradle” (with M. Baumgardt) Talk at www.ted.com in Feb 2005.
    33. 33. “..When I was less than a year old, before I could talk, …, I was ina pram outside the grocery store. … A dragonfly began swoopingaround me, and I screamed – so a well-intentioned passerby hit thedragonfly to the ground with his newspaper, and crushed it withhis foot. I continued to scream all the way home. … But beingafraid of something did not mean I wanted it killed. If I close myeyes I can see, with almost unbearable clarity, the gloriousshimmering and still quivering wings, the blue ‘tail’ gleaming inthe sunlight, the head crushed on the sidewalk. Because of me ithad died, perhaps in pain. I screamed in helpless outrage. Andfrom a terrible sense of guilt. Perhaps I have subconciously livedmy whole life trying to assuage that guilt. Perhaps the dragonflywas part of some plan, to bring a message to a little child, all thoseyears ago. If so, all I can say is: ‘Message received andunderstood.’ ” – Jane Goodall Reason For Hope – A Spiritual Journey
    34. 34. Alarming ‘dead zone’ grows in the ChesapeakeBy Darryl Fears, July 24, 2011A giant underwater “dead zone” in the Chesapeake Bay is growing at analarming rate because of unusually high nutrient pollution levels thisyear, according to Virginia and Maryland officials. They said theexpanding area of oxygen-starved water is on track to become the bay’slargest ever.This year’s Chesapeake Bay dead zone covers a third of the bay,stretching from the Baltimore Harbor to the bay’s mid-channel region inthe Potomac River, about 83 miles, when it was last measured in lateJune. It has since expanded beyond the Potomac into Virginia, officialssaid.
    35. 35. THE DISMAL DECLINE OF THE BAY HAS LED THESE PROUD SMITH ISLAND WATERMEN  AND WOMEN TO GIVE UP WORK ON THE BAY, LEAVE THEIR ISLAND HOMES, AND GO  TO WORK AT THE STATE PISON IN PRINCESS ANNE, MD ENDING GENERATIONS OF  THEIR FAMILIES MAKING A LIVING FROM THE BAY’S ONCE BOUNTEOUS  RESORUCRCES, ESPECIALLY OYSTERS AND CRABS. THE POLLUTION OF THE BAY HAS  DESTROYED THEIR ANCIENT LIVELIHOODS.  Photo: National Geographic Magazine, June 2005, Why Can’t We Save the Bay? By Tom Horton 
    36. 36. CBSNews.com February 29, 2012 6:15 PMPITTSBURGH — GenOn Energy Inc. plans to close five of its older coal-fired power plants in Pennsylvania over thenext four years.The company, based in Houston, said Wednesday that tough new environmental rules make it unprofitable to operatethe plants, which generate a total of 3,140 megawatts of electricity. The plants are in Portland, Shawville, Titus, NewCastle and Elrama. Two plants in Ohio and one in New Jersey will also be closed. The company said the timeframesare subject to further review based on market conditions.The Sierra Club said in a statement that closing the plants will prevent about 179 premature deaths, 300 heartattacks and 2,800 asthma attacks each year."Above all, this is a win for public health and for families who have been breathing polluted air from these outdatedplants," said Bruce Nilles, Senior Director of the Sierra Clubs Beyond Coal campaign.But Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican, said that as many as 315 people could lose their jobs."I am dismayed by the news that hundreds of Pennsylvanians will lose their jobs because of this impending wave offederal regulations. While I fully support sensible, existing power plant regulations to protect our air, the cumulativeeffect of these new rules, which are some of the costliest in the EPAs history, is overwhelming."Tougher air quality rules from the Environmental Protection Agency are forcing some companies to choose betweencostly upgrades, closing older plants or building new power plants that can also run on cleaner-burning natural gas.Nilles said building a wind farm is cheaper than building a new coal plant."What matters now is ensuring that GenOn does the right thing and transitions these workers into the growing cleanenergy sector," he said.GenOn said initial plans are for the Elrama, Pa. and Niles, Ohio plants to close in June, and the rest in 2015.
    37. 37. What are our chances? Beware of false hopes.• Geoengineering will save us. – But isn’t that partly responsible for our problems?• Elect a politician who “gets it.” – Will he or she “get it” after being elected?• Peak Oil and Gas will save us. – Or will it cause a major shift to Coal?• The next generation will fix it. – Didn’t the previous generation say that?• China needs to change. – Isn’t their per capita energy use still far below USA’s?• Africa/India should stop overpopulating. – With war, desertification, famine?• Corporations are causing it.– Who put them in charge?• God has promised Earth for our use. – Has that worked well in recent years? False hopes shift responsibility away from us. We need to ask “What can we do?” 46
    38. 38. What are our chances? How To Build Community:The Syracuse Cultural WorkersTurn off your TV*Leave your houseKnow your neighborsLook up when you are walking Start A Tradition*Ask A QuestionGreet people*Sit on your stoop Hire Young People for Odd Jobs Organize a Block PartyPlant Flowers Bake Extra and ShareUse your library*Play together Ask For Help When You Need ItBuy from local merchants Open Your Shades*Sing TogetherShare what you have Share Your SkillsHelp a lost dog Take Back the NightTake children to the park Turn Up The MusicGarden Together Turn Down The Music Listen Before You react To AngerSupport Neighborhood Schools Mediate A ConflictFix it even if you didnt break it Seek To UnderstandHave Pot Lucks*Honor Elders Learn From New AndPick Up Litter* Read Stories Aloud Uncomfortable AnglesDance in the Street Know That No One is SilentTalk to the Mail Carrier Though Many Are Not HeardListen to the Birds* Put up a Swing Work To Change ThisHelp Carry Something HeavyBarter For Your Goods 47 http://syracuseculturalworkers.com
    39. 39. What are our chances? Turning false hopes around:• One person turning out a lightbulb 1 hour a day – may appear to make little difference• One billion persons turning out a lightbulb … – …for 1 hour a day for a year, can power a medium sized city in the USA for a year. – See http://pumas.nasa.gov and search for “think globally.” – Human population increased by 1 billion in the past 12 years !!!• Solar Energy so far has made little dent in USA energy usage• There’s a ‘Moore’s Law’ that’s rapidly making solar cheaper than fossil fuels – In the early 2020’s fossil fuels begin to lose• Is there enough solar energy to fill the increasing needs?• Solar is in abundance, and also wind, geothermal, and other, widely distributed. – Humans use 15 TW, – About 90,000 TW solar is absorbed by land & oceans, or about 30,000 by land, or 2000 X human usage. – All Coal & Oil doesn’t need to be replaced by a single renewable, just new coal by > 10 renewables. 48
    40. 40. What are our chances? Turning around: 49
    41. 41. What are our chances? My personal reason for hope:• Known Unknown – 96% of all mass/energy• Sensitivity to initial conditions – The ubiquity of chaos• Resiliance – Nature’s remarkable ability to heal and adapt• Peak oil and gas – The Power of Community, urban permaculture• The Japanese Cedar – For 7000 years it clung to the soil, protected birds• Our Elders – Pete Seeger (Calipso), Jane Goodall (Roots and Shoots)• Our Children – Adapting to and changing the world they have inherited• Our Tree of Life – Relearning our interconnectedness• Non-Coal Alternatives – Solar, Wind, Geothermal, monitor their impacts 50
    42. 42. What are our chances? Musicians United to Sustain the EnvironmentSongs For The Earth: A Tribute To Rachel Carson http://www.musemusic.org/ 51
    43. 43. What are our chances? Turning around:“We are made of water, flowing water, Sun and salt, winds that blow. Though my bones were formed in the mountain, it’s through my blood this river flows.” – Tom Wisner, song lyrics 52
    44. 44. What are our chances? Turning around: 53
    45. 45. What can we do? My personal opinion as a citizen:• Think Globally, Act Locally – http://pumas.nasa.gov on “learning to think globally”• Change your home – Manage to work with nature in your own life• Carbon Footprint - Calculate and control your energy/carbon –> mindfulness• Talk to your neighbors – Help your community work with nature• Shop local – Give local businesses your feedback• “Cradle to Cradle” (McDonough and Braungart) – Redesign businesses& institutions to work with nature• Consume wisely – Find products that do less harm, or do good• The Bog Turtle – Adopt a species to help it pull back from extinction• Educate Our Children – To adapt to and change the world they inherit• Support Non-Coal Alternatives – Solar, Wind, Geothermal, monitor their impacts“Little things lead to bigger things – that’s what seeds are all about.… Who knows where some good little thing you’ve done maybring results years later that you never dreamed of.” 54 – Pete Seeger (“Democracy Now” on 5/4/2009)
    46. 46. Climate ChallengesWill we wipe out … Or ride the wave?Little drops of water, “Some force within me rejected death at the little grains of sand, last moment and then guided me, blind andMake the mighty ocean and the pleasant land. stumbling – quite literally a dead manSo the little minutes, walking – into camp and the shaky start of humble though they be, my return to life …”Make the mighty ages Beck Weathers, Left for Dead on Everest, 1996 of eternity.– Julia A. Fletcher Carney (1824-1908)
    47. 47. Holocene Lasted 10,000 Years. Will the Anthropocene? Adapt, Mitigate, Observe – Persist! Great Basin National Park, Nevada, USA Proposed Site for “Clock of the Long Now”Bristlecone Pine Do We Have the Persistance of Our Ancestors? Passage Grave, Newgrange, Ireland, c5000 Years Before Present Continues to keep accurate time to date.
    48. 48. • Rio de Janiero Nominated Woman Sailor of the Year 2004 • Buenos Aires March 21, 2004 Brian Thompson’s Watch Captain’s Log: “When we arrive off Rio we will have to avoid a low- pressure area that will be parked 500 miles offshore. We can choose to go inshore to the west, or offshore to the east. At the moment we are undecided on the option but during the night we will have to make the choice. As more up to date weather info comes in it shouldCheyenne become a clearer decision..” Steve Fossett (skipper) USA Adrienne Cahalan (navigator) AUS David Scully (watch captain) USA Brian Thompson (watch captain) GB Jacques Vincent (watch captain) FRA Guillermo Altadill ESP Mike Beasley NZL CATARINA Fraser Brown NZL Mark Featherstone GB South Atlantic hurricane. Damian Foxall IRE First ever recorded ! Nick Leggatt ZA Justin Slattery IRE March 2004 Paul Van Dyke USA
    49. 49. NASA’s Kepler mission found a candidate planet, 99% similarity with Earth.Orbits an unremarkable red star in constellation Cygnus, is known as KOI-494.01.KOI-494 is approximately 1250 light-years from Earth. Even sustaining acceleration atEarth-surface-normal acceleration (“1 g”) and taking advantage of the time dilationpredicted by Einstein’s Special Relativity Theory, a traveler would age almost 14 yearsenroute to KOI-494.For observers remaining behind on Earth about one and a quarter millenia would passduring this trip (that’s approximately the time from the founding of Islam until now.)Getting to KOI-494.01 will be quite a challenge!
    50. 50. Oh my children, where air we going on this mighty river of earth,a-borning, begetting, and a-dying, the living and the dead ridingthe waters? Where air it sweeping us? – James Still, “River of Earth”
    51. 51. HeritageI shall not leave these prisoning hillsThough they topple their barren heads to level earthAnd the forests slide uprooted out of the sky.Though the waters of Troublesome, of Trace Fork,Of Sand Lick rise in a single body to glean the valleys,To drown lush pennyroyal, to unravel rail fences;Though the sun-ball breaks the ridges into dustAnd burns its strength into the blistered rockI cannot leave. I cannot go away.Being of these hills, being one with the foxStealing into the shadows, one with the new-born foal,The lumbering ox drawing green beech logs to mill,One with the destined feet of man climbing and descending,And one with death rising to bloom again, I cannot go.Being of these hills I cannot pass beyond. 60 – James Still (1906-2001), Knott County, Kentucky
    52. 52. Thank you! 61
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