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  1. 1. Chaucer Thanks for having me.I spend most of my time thinking about the near future for my agency and her behavior. culture. commerce.i rarely get to talk to people outside of my craft about such issues, and i think they’re important to all of us, sothanks for having me.we’re here today to talk about an on demand culture: one in which individuals are empowered to curate themedia around them more granularly than ever before.It’s an exciting time to be alive.
  2. 2. An ocean of content The tick tock. A robust toolkit to marshal it New civic/commercial challenges Some hedging strategies A deep need for moreThese elements are casually linked, but they aren’t stairstepped.Some overlap between them is assumed.
  3. 3. “Although our capabilities have been expanding geometrically, our ability to model their long term behavior has been increasing only arithmetically.” -Edward TennerWe’ve all seen this in one form or another.Negotiating, and ultimately reducing this delta is my job.but it’s one i share with others: judges, urban planners, VCs, concerned citizens.Two things i want you to do today:1. better understand the risks associated with our newfound freedom2. think about your role in all thisOne thing i don’t want: note taking. every reference i’ll make here will be cited at the end, and you’ll be able toget your hands on everything.
  4. 4. 7 years ago.I  was  a  musician  and  storyteller.I  started  this  band,  that  was  always  intended  to  be  a  niche  product.we  were  to  be  subsistence  ar7sts,  emboldened  by  the  collapse  of  the  recording  industry:  all  of  a  sudden,  $10K  and  a  good  myspace  following  offered  a  fairly  flat  advantage  to  being  signed  by  a  major.and  if  you  did  it  right,  by  the  7me  the  labels  came  knocking,  you’d  have  leverage.I  met  a  bunch  of  my  heros,  and  they  all  said  the  same  thing:  “diversify.    You’re  lucky  if  the  music  breaks  itself  even.Your  money  won’t  come  from  sales:  it’ll  come  from  everything  else:  the  merch.    the  tours.    the  synchs.”LiIle  did  we  know  streaming  music  was  about  to  blow  up,  and  change  the  game  again:  from  ownership  to  mere  began  a  fascina7on  on  my  part  with  the  discrepancy  between  being  valuable  and  being  able  to  command  a  price.but  also  a  fascina7on  with  how  we  find  the  things  we  we  build  communi7es  around  them,  and  how  that  exercise  governs  our  rela7onship  with  people  both  inside  and  without.
  5. 5. Then I met this guy.This  guy  is  dan  wieden;  you  may  know  him  as  the  guy  who,  as  the  story  goes,  scribbled  three  liIle  words  on  a  napkin  that  changed  the  world.They  were?“Just  do  it.”He’d  made  a  career  of  making  content  that  moved  people.    content  that  expanded  their  minds  and  opened  their  wallets.I  admired  him  terribly.    i  asked  how  i  could  be  down,  and  he  let  me  in  aQer  listening  to  my  record.I  took  a  posi7on  on  the  newly-­‐won  converse  account.
  6. 6. The years that followed...i  was  at  the  nexus  of  art  and  commerce.and  i  was  responsible  for  connec7ng  the  people  with  the  content:  a  craQ  we  called  channel  planning  or  media  planning.but  even  in  the  few  years  it  took  to  get  good,i  started  sensing  the  signals  that  the  center  wouldn’t  hold.In  these  two  years  alone  (my  7me  on  converse),  we  started  seeing  signs  of  our  increasing  inability  to  raise  a  big  audience,  especially  concurrently.and  when  we  did,  we  found  that  we  never  had  a  crea7ve  solu7on  that  sa7sfied  all  of  them....and  if  we  relied  just  on  media  muscle  to  push  an  idea,  a)  we  were  missing  a  big  opportunity  to  distribute  more  efficitently  and  b)  we  weren’t  guaranteed  the  penetra7on  you  once  were.we  were  seeing  a  big  shiQ  toward  user-­‐curated  media.  in  other  words,  if  it  doesn’t  spread,  it’s  dead.i  got  preIy  good  at  developing  work  and  systems  that  made  ideas  spread.    I  did  so  for  music,  videos,  digital  assets,  video  games,  and  a  feature  film.
  7. 7. Then everything changed.5  years  later,  I  looked  up  and  i  had  made  a  career  of  launching  and  sustaining  entertainment  franchises.then  my  boss  lays  a  challenge  at  my  feet:    “get  these  guys  ready  for  the  inevitable  future  of  digital  fulfillment.”EA  was  on  to  something.    one:  their  retailer  rela7onships  were  a  point  of  weakness:  costly,  and  out  of  step  with  burgeoning  consumer  behavior.they  knew  that  they  could  develop  for  the  long  tail.    but  it’d  change  their  business.the  big  change  for  us  though?we  went  from  merely  promo7ng  to  ac7vely  merchandising.every  node  in  the  system  becomes  a  possible  transac7on  very  quickly,  my  prac7ce  became  about  iden7fying  the  behavioral  aIributes  of  buyers.    and  finding  ways  to  stay  in  their  face.a  tall  order  considering  the  landscape.    here’s  why:
  8. 8. New day.Meanwhile,  as  I  was  polishing  channel  planning  chops:  an  explosion  in  soQware  development.Blogging,  then  micro  blogging  changed  publishing  to  a  click,  decima7ng  the  value  prop  of  what  had  for  hundreds  of  years  been  a  specialized  skill  set.    napster,  then  Itunes  brought  the  record  industry  to  its]lix  bought  an  island  called  manhaIan  from  starz,  for  the  equivalent  of  a  few  beads,  then  took  over  with  installs  on  gaming  consoles.craigslist  killed  the  classifieds.and  almost  every7me,  the  public  won.    wikipedia  brought  crowdsourcing  into  the  public  view.    amazon  flaIened  costs  across  the  board,  ushering  in  radical  transparency.    ebay  created  a  grey  marketplace.    myspace  got  my  band  bookings.but  brands  are  freaking  out.because  concurrent  reach  disappears.    because  measurement  gets  more  textured.    because  data  gets  more  expensive.on  one  side  of  this  equa7on:    ad  blockers.    audience  fragmenta7on.    audience  empowerment.    Crisis  management  at  grassroots.    the  ques7on  wan’t  how  can  you  best  push  to  people:  it  was:  how  can  you  get  them  to  pull,  and  push  to  others?
  9. 9. On top of all that.and  this.But  let’s  be  clear:  cord  cu_ng  isn’t  about  killing  the  content.    It’s  about  taking  a  more  ac7ve  role  in  it’s  deployment.when,  where,  how,  on  what  device.Picture  it  as  cu_ng  an  umbilical’re  not  failing  to  be  nourished;  you’re  just  no  longer  passively  accep7ng  it.Here’s  an  example  of  chord  cu_ng  that  lives  en7rely  in  the  digital  world,  so  you  can  get  a  sense  of  the  metaphor’s  boundaries:A  very  popular  gaming  site  saw  fairly  stunning  traffic  decline  to  it’s  front  page,  which  historically  had  been  able  to  be  marketed  to  media  buyers  at  a  got  the  most  eyeballs,  and  it  offered  a  broad  palleIe  for  crea7ve.when  the  traffic  dipped,  it  wasn’t  because  the  content  wasn’t  in  demand  anymore,  it  was  because  people  wanted  it  so  bad,  they’d  port  it.
  10. 10. Porting the reporting.the  number  of  users  of  a  popular  gaming  site  who  signed  up  to  “follow”  their  favorite  games,  genres,  and  conversa7ons  via  RSS  tripled  in  one  quarter.While  they  would  click  into  side  doors  of  the  site,  these  users  were  done  with  the  content  the  site  chose  to  curate  on  it’s  front  page,  and  thus  didn’t  visit.Soon,  the  site  was  chasing  us  down,  saying  we  could  “roadblock”  users  who  didnt’  come  to  the  site,  but  consumed  it’s  was  a  a  bandaid  is.
  11. 11. Suddenly: Gamechanger(s).The hardware catches up with the software: tivo. iphone. itouch. ipad. kindle. 7th gen consoles, and then blueray.Designed from the ground up to consume, sort, filter, and cache content.adopt standards that allow you to enjoy selfsame experiences across screens, enriching the value prop of the software.Many were mobile, could assume control of other devices, but all assumed their own connectivity: in that, comes the abilityto call content from the cloud, interact in real time, store or bookmark whatʼs useful.collectively, all these devices changed the user expectation of these screens: that instead of boxes that receive specificcontent someone else programs, they should all be windows to all the content you could think to request.
  12. 12. A microcosm.Page One: a year inside the NYT. A great the foreground: the impact of progress on established practice.their inability to monetize. the decline of their model. the scramble to replace it. Big media bedlam.irresponsible power, distributed like pollen.They’re forced often to compete with their own work, aggregated by Huffpo, newser, and gawker.Businesses that couldn’t be alive without them, but are, by merely existing, depleting their ability to providetheir service.In the background: deep philosophical questions about the nature of value...about the role of big media...about the economics of credibility...and the future of truth.
  13. 13. Another take.Here’s  the  other  side  of  the  equa7on.a  shaIering  of  the  80/20  rule.The  collapse  of  the  one  size  fits  all  model,  and  the  market  of  mul7tudes  that  rises  from  its  ashes.the  economics  of  the  broadcast  era-­‐-­‐requiring  hits  to  get  big  buckets  of  audiences-­‐-­‐being  reversed  in  the  broadband  consider:  you’re  in  a  coffee  shop  in  seaIle.    it’s  playing  a  local  ar7st  you’ve  never  heard.    you  whip  out  your  phone,  which  listens  to  id  it,  then  enables  you  to  buy  it  on  the  spot.that  was  the  promise  then.    it’s  realized  now.The  rise  of  massclusivity.the  flooding  of  the  evolu7onary  leap  for  commerce.
  14. 14. Not what we’re talking about.brilliant, and worth a read. but focused on the sunny side of things: Clay argues that people will contribute on aglobal scale to the better good.a trillion hours of time a year to contribute he says: we’re gonna get some good stuff.“we were couch potatoes because we had to be.” we’re exiting that phase.we got erotic novels 150 years before we got scientific journals. If the first few years of the internet emphasizedthe former, the latter’s on the constraints create a culture that was more generous than the contractual restraints.meaningfully, he creates a distinction between communal value and civic value.
  15. 15. Let’s look under the hood.Okay, so lots of professional thinkers are excited for or afraid of what’s next.And you know why my industry is so up in arms about where everything will land, which is why jobs like mineexist.Let’s get a sense for what we’re talking about before we move on to why it’s important to all of us.
  16. 16. The content trendline. • 60 days > 60 years: More video is uploaded in two months than the three major U.S. networks (ABC, CBS, NBC) combined created in six decades. • 4 million: Number of people connected to YT and auto-sharing to at least one social network. • 250 million – Number of tweets per day • 110 million: Number of blogs between WP and tumblr • 100 billion – Estimated number of photos on Facebook by mid-2011.Your takeaway: there’s waaaaay too much to see/hear/experience/play/consume everything.
  17. 17. The consumption trendline. • 3.3: petabytes of monthly bandwidth used by • 3 billion: hours spent gaming • 56: % US households who own current consoles (nielsen) • 140: The number of YouTube video playbacks per person on Earth • 30: % of internet bandwidth consumed by netflix playbackYour takeaway: we’re trying our damnedest to drink it all.
  18. 18. The demographic trendline.Your takeaway: the coming generation will have an expectation of bespoke content.Theyʼll choose. theyʼll accept recommendations. theyʼll search. but they wonʼt let the wave just crash over also says that they make no distinction between channels or the content running in them the way we do.a media planner will look at this and say: you canʼt see modern family or anything else on tv on youtube. but these kidsdonʼt (and wonʼt when theyʼre not kids) care.
  19. 19. It’s a lot to get through.When anyone can say anything, almost everyone says something.The sparsest commodity in this equation? attention span.The most plentiful? stake? the ties that bind us: shared experiences, that produce shared realities. Common standards andreferences, that produce common ground.Cultural cohesion.
  20. 20. The angst of the modern condition. funny take on the angst of the modern condition: so much to consume, so little time.Part of the humor here is about the reputation of portland as being a place of utter leisure. Nobody has time to read that much.but in pdx...The citizens have tons of free time, or “cognitive surplus,” as clay shirky would have it. It’s “where young people go to retire.”but what’s the missing insight vis a vis our discussion?that this won’t scale.we’re not this uniform. that’d be both boring and’s..tribal.they’re constructing and reinforcing a worldview; dictating a cultural narrative. and you get the sense that they’d scoff at anyonewho doesn’t share also get the sense that most people don’t.the question this begs is:what happens when you put these people in a room with those who haven’t read these things? or, who read other unrelatedthings?the answer is: divergence.
  21. 21. What’s the story here?This is where everything bottoms out.The onus of choice moves from an elite few to the whole.but not the collective whole: the individuals within it.The old media paradigm was autocratic, true: but the movement we’re seeing isn’t democratization: it’s betterdescribed as atomization.This is not a class voting on what they want to learn.It’s each student deciding what they want to learn.
  22. 22. { The 10%.those who live up to the requirement of the paradigm: to continuously audit and refine their media input.Those who become beacons for others.Those who publish and edit longform.those who most actively select content, experiences, and communities, with little “thrown in nuetral.”
  23. 23. The best of it.When they choose wisely, you’re about to see an era where people can become their best, most textured selves.
  24. 24. The toolkit.and here’s what they’ll use.
  25. 25. The worst of it.You’ll also see hyper-specialization. This is how you get a candidate who knows everything there is to knowabout domestic energy policy, but doesn’t know why south and north korea are separate nations.The wrong mix, and you’ll have an echo chamber of opinions and facts.what does this mean: new sets of references. less surface share between niche values.
  26. 26. The toolkit.And here’s how that happens.
  27. 27. Problems.“By  giving  the  illusion  of  perfect  control,  these  technologies  risk  making  us  incapable  of  ever  being  surprised.They  encourage  not  the  cul7va7on  of  taste,  but  the  numbing  repe77on  of  fe7sh.In  thrall  to  our  liIle  technologically  constructed  worlds,  we  are,  ironically,  finding  it  increasingly  difficult  to  appreciate  genuine  individuality.”chris7ne  rosen
  28. 28. The 90%. {Most of us.
  29. 29. The machines will deliver relevance.This  is  facebook’s  edge  rank  Object  is  more  likely  to  show  up  in  your  News  Feed  if  people  you  know  have  been  interac7ng  with  it  recently.The  more  populous  the  pla]orm,  the  more  it  will  automate  as  much  as  possible.BIG  data  sets.    invasive  data  sets.  and,  most  importantly  to  today,  prescrip7ve  data.meandering  will  require  considerable  effort  given  the  algorithm’s  op7miza7on  objec7ve:  “relevance.”Inputs:Clickstream  (your  history)Clickstream  (our  history)Social  weigh7ng  (your  friends’  history)
  30. 30. But that makes discovery tougher.The  curator  (in  this  case,  the  algor7hm)  has  a  built  in  incen7ve  to  show  you  what  you  already  believe.varia7ons  on  what  you’ve  already  seen.posts  from  users  you  tend  to  interact  way  to  discover  new  things  as  you  mature  and  move  through  life  stages.Incredibly  tough  to  break  a  persona,  especially  for  na7ves,  who  have  more  data  to  overcome.
  31. 31. Your fellow (hu)man will help.We’ve  seen  the  rise  of  recommenda7on  engines  powered  by  others,  some  whom  you  know,  and  others  not  so  much.angies  list  is  just  the  7p  of  the  iceberg.this  will  become  more  dominant  as  the  years  pass.
  32. 32. But that’s not always good.Emerson  wrote:  “The  foregoing  genera7ons  beheld  God  and  nature  face  to  face;  we,  through  their  eyes.  Why  should  not  we  also  enjoy  an  original  rela7on  to  the  universe?  Why  should  not  we  have  a  poetry  and  philosophy  of  insight  and  not  of  tradi7on,  and  a  religion  by  revela7on  to  us,  and  not  the  history  of  theirs?”what’s  the  ge_ng  at?    1st  hand  experience  as  a  teacher.And  that’s  great  on  many  levels.  But  we’re  forge_ng  the  pleasures  of  not  knowing-­‐-­‐and  of  discovering.  “I’m  no  Luddite,  but  we’ve  started  replacing  actual  experience  with  someone  else’s  already  digested  knowledge.”
  33. 33. Also, consider this.everything  the  net  has  to  offer,  right  behind  this  door.Anything  your  heart  desires.go.
  34. 34. Right?the  results  today?    aside  from  phrase  match,  it’s  largely  the  clickstream  ac7vity  of  anyone  who’s  ever  searched  that  term.1st  result:  the  most  clicked  result  when  people  query.the  net  using  popula7on  is  your  proxy  to  the  the  answer.flawed  as  it  is,  it’s  at  least  balanced.
  35. 35. One day...The  G+  project  gives  thinkers  like  me  pause.Add  social  weigh7ng  to  this  equa7on.the  results?    it’s  largely  the  clickstream  ac7vity  of  people  you’re  connected  to  who’ve  ever  searched  or  wriIen  about  that  term.1st  result:  the  most  clicked  result  when  people  you  know  query.your  network  is  your  pure  is  your  network?
  36. 36. So what’s the problem?Remember  what  your  mom  said  about  knucklehead  friends?s7ll,  instead  of  just  pruning  your  own  footprint  to  control  for  ou]low,  you’re  pruning  your  network  to  control  for  inflow.BIG  responsibility,  perhaps  too  big  for  a  teenager:  it’s  daun7ng  even  for  us,  who  have  a  beIer  grasp  on  long  term  effects.also,  it’s  tough  to  achieve  diversity  of  thought  without  manually  adjus7ng  the  many  digital  na7ves  have  enough  sense  to  do  this?    and  how  will  they  discover  new  networks  witht  he  algorithms  working  so  hard  to  deliver  them  “relevance,”  as  dictated  by  their  history?  
  37. 37. Overinformed, unknowledgeable populace Playback. The “Search 22” Massively parallel, affinity-based culture Shrinking margin of error for nativesthese  are  legi7mate,  compounding  problems.    but  that’s  no  reason  to  slam  on  the  brakes.    
  38. 38. Hedging  are  a  few  ways  we  can  steer  into  the  slide.
  39. 39. New information structures.This  is  the  new  narra7ve  flow  prescribed  by  a  mul7media  editor  at  rewards,  but  does  not  require,  dalliance.beIer  represent  key  tensions  which  might  otherwise  be  represented  as  poles  on  a  con7nuum:  discovery/nostalgia,  ac7vity/passivity,  personal/communal/,  etc.  the  roundabouts  could  be  anything:  content  themes,  formats  (video,  pictures,  rich  data),  chapters,  contextual  zooms  (in  or  out),  recommenda7ons,  bookmarking/queueing  ac7vi7es,  whatever.    Solid  chassis  for  almost  any  comms  structure:  it  accepts  that  people  have  the  power  to  decide,  but  it  emphasizes  that  there’s  more,  and  offers  easy  naviga7on  in  and  out  of  the  main  “story.”Moreover,  for  planners  of  this  kind  of  experience,  it  beIer  represents  key  tensions  which  might  otherwise  be  represented  as  poles  on  a  con7nuum:  discovery/nostalgia,  ac7vity/passivity,  personal/communal/,  etc.  
  40. 40. New retrieval paradigms.  tradi7onal  search  gives  us  access  to  knowledge,  but  "tells  us  only  what  the  world  already  knows."“This  search  engine  is  designed  ‘for  anyone  on  the  edges  of  their  knowledge  field,  crea7ng  fresh  perspec7ves  that  can  lead  to  new  kinds  of  understanding  and  innova7on.’”
  41. 41. Actionable metadata.  applica7on  of  digital  metadata.    floa7ng  reminders  of  counterpoints.  updated  in  real  7me.    sensi7ve  to  user  inputs,  but  op7mized  to  present  the  full  story  (in  all  it’s  shades).
  42. 42. Temporary connections.pla]orms  that  encourage  single-­‐stop  connec7ons  and  interac7ons.experiences  that  pre-­‐wire  anonymity.building  rela7onships  that  aren’t  intended  to  persist.the  rise  of  loca7on-­‐based  narra7ve.finding  other  reasons  to  connect  than  shared  interests.    other  reasons  to  cooperate  than  social  proximity.
  43. 43. New submission paradigms. In the wake of Steve Jobs passing, weve found ourselves at a loss. Steve valued simplicity, clarity and elegance in everything he did. Hereʼs one attempt to keep that legacy alive. How would Steve simplify the complicated? What would he do? View SubmissionsIt  blends  the  u7lity  of  a  link  shortener  with  the  the  ability  to  anonymously  curate  specific  types  of  content  for  others.The  public  footprint  it  leaves  can  be  surfed  for  thema7cally  relevant  content.....and  the  content  theme  is  iden7fied  by  the  shortened  links,  recognizable  even  before  you  click.
  44. 44. Your Contributions. #atomizationcuresWhat  will  you  do?what  will  you  tell  the  people  close  to  you?    Will  you  adopt  and  support  new  pla]orms?build  them?how  will  your  hiring  criteria  be  affected?how  will  you  encourage  your  kids  and  other  youngsters  you  influence  to  use  the  net?How  will  you  change  your  habits?
  45. 45. ChaucerThanks. Q’s?