Slides GEOTOP

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Slides GEOTOP

  1. 1. Arthur CHARPENTIER & Mathieu BOUDREAULT, Bivariate count processes for earthquake frequency Bivariate Count Processes for Earthquake Frequency Mathieu Boudreault & Arthur Charpentier Université du Québec à Montréal charpentier.arthur@uqam.ca http ://freakonometrics.blog.free.fr/ Séminaire GeoTop, January 2012 1
  2. 2. Arthur CHARPENTIER & Mathieu BOUDREAULT, Bivariate count processes for earthquake frequency Motivation“Large earthquakes are known to trigger earthquakes elsewhere. Damaging largeaftershocks occur close to the mainshock and microearthquakes are triggered bypassing seismic waves at significant distances from the mainshock. It is unclear,however, whether bigger, more damaging earthquakes are routinely triggered atdistances far from the mainshock, heightening the global seismic hazard afterevery large earthquake. Here we assemble a catalogue of all possible earthquakesgreater than M5 that might have been triggered by every M7 or larger mainshockduring the past 30 years. [...] We observe a significant increase in the rate ofseismic activity at distances confined to within two to three rupture lengths of themainshock. Thus, we conclude that the regional hazard of larger earthquakes isincreased after a mainshock, but the global hazard is not.” Parsons & Velasco(2011)Figures : Number of earthquakes (magnitude exceeding 2.0, per 15 sec.)following a large earthquake (of magnitude 6.5), normalized so that the expectednumber of earthquakes before and after is 100. 2
  3. 3. Arthur CHARPENTIER & Mathieu BOUDREAULT, Bivariate count processes for earthquake frequency Number of earthquakes (magnitude >2) per 15 sec., average before=100 q 180 q q q q 160 q q q qq q q q 140 qq qq qq qq q qq q q q q qq qqq qq qq q q qqq q q qq q q q q q q q qqq q qq q qq qq qq q q 120 qqqqq q qqq qq qq qq q qq q q q qqq q q q qq qq q q q qq q q q qqq qq q q q q qq qq q qq qq qqq q qqqq q qq q qq q q q qqqqq q q q qqq qqqq qq q qqq q q qq q q qq q q qq qq q q q q q q q qq qqq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q qq q qqq q qqq qq q qq q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qq q q q q qq q qqq qq q q q q q q q q q q q qq qq qq q q q q qq qq q qqq q qq q qqqq qq q qq q q q q q qq q qq q q q qq qqqq qq q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q qq qq qq qq q q q qq qq qqqq qq q qq q qqq qq q q qq q q q qq q q qqqq qq qq q qqq q q q qq q qq qq qq qq q q qq qq q q qq q q q q q qqq q qq q qqqqq qqq qqq q q q q qq q qq q q qq q q q q qqq qq q q qq qq q qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q qq q q qq q qq q q q qq qq qqq q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q qqq q qq qq qq q q qq q q qqq q q q q qq q q q q q q qq q q qq q q qq q qq q qq q qqq q qq q qq q q q qq q q q qqqq q q q q qq q qq q qqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqq q qqqq q q qq q qqqq qq q qqqq q q qq qq qqq q qqqq qqq qqqqqqqqqqq q q q q q q qqqqq qq q q q q q q q qqqq q q q qqq q qq q q q q q q q qq qqq q q q q qq q q qq qqq qq q q q q qq qqqqqq q q q q qq qq qq q q q q q qq q q q qq q q q qqq q q q q q qq qq qq q q q q q qqq qqqq q q qqq qq q qqq qqq q q qq q q q q q q q qq qqq qqqqq q q q q q qq q qq q qq q q q q qq qq q q q q q qq q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q qq q qqq qq q q qqqq q qqqq qqqqq q qq qqqqqqqqq qq q q q qq q qq q qqq q q q q qq q q qq qqqq q qqqq q qq q q q q qqq q q q q q q q q q q q qqqqq q qqqq q qqqq qq q qq qq qq qqqqqq q qq qq qqq q q q q qq qq q q q qq q q qq q 100 qq qq qq qq q q qq q qq q q q q qq q q q qqq qq q qq q qq q q q q qq q q q q qq q qq qq q q q q q qq qqq q qqqq qqq qq qqqqqqq qqq q q q qq q qqqq qqqqq qq qqqq q q qq qq q q q q q q q qq q q q q qqq qq q q q qq qqq q q qq q q qq qqq q q qqqq qqqq q qqq q q qq q q q q q q q q q q qq qq qq qq qqqqqq q qqqqqq qqqqq q qqqq qq qqqqqqqq qq qq qqqqqq qqqq q q qq qq q q q q q qq q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q qqq q qqq q qqq qq qqq q q q qq qqq q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q qq qq q qqqqqqq qqqq qqqqqq qqqqqq qq q qqqq qqqqq qq q qq q q q q q q q qq q q qqq q q qq q q q qq qq q q q qq qqq q q q q q q q qqq qq q qqq q q qqqq qq q q q qqqqq qqqqqq q qqq qq qqqq qq qq q qq qqq q q q qq qqq qqq qqq qq q qq q q q q qq q q q q qqq qqq q q qqq qqqqqq q qq qq qq q qqqqqqq q q qq qqq q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q qqqq qq qq qq qqqq qq q qq qq q q qq qqqq q q q qqqq q qq qqq qqq qqqq q q q q qq qqq q q q q q q q qqq q qq q qq q q q q q qq q qq qq qqq qq qqq q q q q qqq q qqqq q qqq q qqqqqqqq q q qq qqq qq q qq q q q qq q q q q qq q qq q q qqq q q q qq q q qqq q qq qqqq qqqqqq q qq qqq q q qqqqq qq qq q q q qqq qqqqq qqqq q qq qq q qq q q q q q qq q q q q q q q qqq q q qqqq qq q qqq qq qq q q qqq qqq q q qqqq qqq q qqq qqqqqqq qq qqqqqq q q q q q q qqq q qq qq qqqq q qq q q qq q qqq qqq qqq qq qqq q q qqq qqq q qq q qq q q q qqq q q qq q q q qq q q qqqqq qqqqq qqq q q qqqqqqqq qqq q qqqqqqqqq qq qqq q qqqq q q qq qq qq qq q q q q q q qq qq q q q qqq qqqqqq q qq q q qqqq q q qq q qq qqqq qqq q qqq q qqqqq q q q q qq q q qqq q qq q qq qq q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q qq q qq q q q q qq qq qq q q qq q q q q qq qqq qq q q qqq qq qqqq qq qqqq qqqq qqq q q q q q q qq q q qq qq qq qqqq q q qq qq q q qq qqq qqqq qq qq q qq qqqqqqqq q qq q q qq q q q qq q qqq q q qqqq q q qqq q q q q q q q qq q qq qqq q qq qqq qqqqqq qq qqqq q qq q q qq qq q qqqqqq q q q q q qq q q qqqq qqq qq qq q qq q q qq qqq q qq qq q q q q qq q qqq q qq q q q qq q q q qq q q qq q qq q q q q q qq q qqqq q qq q q qq qq q qq qq q q q qq q qq q qq qq q qqqq qqqqqqqqqqqq qqq q qq q q qq q q q qqqqqqq q q qq qq q q q qq q qq q q q q qq q qq q q q q q q q q q q qqq q qq qq q q q q q qq q qq qqq q q q qqq q q q q q q q q qq q qqq q q qq q qq q qq q qq q qq qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q q qqq q qq q qq q q q q q q q qq qq qqq qq q q q q q q qqq q q q qq q qq qq q q q q q qq q q q q qq qq qq qq q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qq q qq qq q q qq q q qq q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q 80 −15 −10 −5 0 5 10 15 Time before and after a major eathquake (magnitude >6.5) in days 3

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