AMA Presentation June 9, 2009 Pdf Version

1,039 views
983 views

Published on

An Historical Look at Marketing Through Recessions from 1973 to Present. Presented to the Indianapolis Chapter of the American Marketing Association June 9, 2009.

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,039
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
15
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

AMA Presentation June 9, 2009 Pdf Version

  1. 1. Marketing Through a Recession Survival Tips From a Grizzled Veteran www.larsonassoc.com American Marketing Association June 9, 2009 larsonassoc@earthlink.net 1
  2. 2. “In an ideal world, every company would enter a recession led by a team of grizzled veterans who could draw on their experiences of past downturns to guide it through the current one. Many companies don’t have grizzled veterans and even for those that do, it can be difficult to rise above the crisis to ponder the lessons of history. Yet in a recession, developing accurate strategic plans is usually a high-stakes effort.” Source: McKinsey & Company; Mapping Decline and Recovery Across Sectors, Winter, 2009 larsonassoc@earthlink.net 2
  3. 3. Marketing Through Recessions • 1973 – 1975 • 1981 – 1983 • 1990 – 1991 • 2000 - 2001 larsonassoc@earthlink.net 3
  4. 4. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 4
  5. 5. Agenda • Budget Cuts • Perspective on recessions – Lessons Learned – Eternal Truths • Marketing Must Be Accountable • What Is Marketing? • Who Needs a Strategy? • What is a Brand? • Reprise from the Experts larsonassoc@earthlink.net 5
  6. 6. Budget Cuts • How many of you: – Have had your budgets cut this year? • Lump sum dollars in budget – Had your budgets tied to specific programs? • If the budget was cut, the program was cut – Had your budgets tied to specific revenue results? • If the budget was cut, revenue projections would not be made. • Make it painful for others to cut your budget. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 6
  7. 7. Fact or Fiction?  We are living in the worst economic conditions since the Great Depression.  We have nothing to fear but fear itself.  Marketing doesn’t work during a recession. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 7
  8. 8. “We are living in the worst economic conditions since the Great Depression.” This is fiction. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 8
  9. 9. Economic Indicators Data as of June 9, 2009 STATS 1929-33 1973-75 1980-82 2008-09 Q1 Q1 Real GDP -13.0% -0.5% -6.4% -5.7% U. Michigan N/A 57.6 51.7 68.7 Consumer Sentiment Unemployment 24.9% 9.0% 10.8% 9.4% Inflation -9.9% 11.0% 13.5% 3.8% larsonassoc@earthlink.net 9
  10. 10. Dow Jones Industrial Average - 1987 Dow Jones Industrial Close - By Month 1987 3,000 - 23% 2,500 2,000 1,500 DJI Close 1,000 500 - Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec larsonassoc@earthlink.net 10
  11. 11. - 10 /1 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 /2 10 009 /2 /2 10 009 /3 /2 10 009 /4 /2 10 009 /5 /2 10 009 /6 /2 10 009 /7 /2 10 009 /8 /2 10 009 /9 / 10 200 /1 9 0/ 10 200 /1 9 1/ 10 200 /1 9 2/ 10 200 /1 9 3/ 10 200 /1 9 4/ Black Monday / Black Swan Event 10 200 /1 9 5/ 10 200 /1 9 6/ 10 200 /1 9 7/ 10 200 /1 9 8/ 10 200 /1 9 9/ 10 200 /2 9 -23% 0/ 10 200 /2 9 larsonassoc@earthlink.net 1/ 10 200 /2 9 2/ 10 20 Dow Jones Industrial Close - By Day October 1987 /2 09 3/ 10 200 /2 9 4/ 10 20 /2 09 5/ 10 200 /2 9 6/ 10 20 /2 09 7/ 10 200 A Closer Look at DJIA 1987 /2 9 8/ 10 20 /2 09 9/ 10 200 /3 9 0/ 20 09 11 DJI Close
  12. 12. Sure, economic conditions are tough today, but two-thirds of the US population have lived through tougher times, and we came out alright on the other end. The biggest difference between the current recessions and prior ones is that cable TV and Internet news coverage now encourages spreading of fear farther, faster than ever before. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 12
  13. 13. “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.” Franklin Delano Roosevelt – March 4, 1933 This is fact. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 13
  14. 14. “We Have Nothing to Fear but Fear Itself” • In 2002 Daniel Kahneman, of Princeton University, was co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize for Economic Science: “For having integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 14
  15. 15. “Consumers today, because of lack of confidence in the economic future, are spending less and saving more of their income. Well-planned promotion can increase sales by helping to overcome this propensity to save.” “When consumers are reluctant to spend any money, they are unwilling to settle for products that do not precisely meet their need specifications. A firm must be more careful both in measuring the needs of the market and in designing products to serve these needs”. “What is the role of marketing in a recession?” Journal of Marketing, April, 1975 larsonassoc@earthlink.net 15
  16. 16. “Marketing Doesn’t Work During a Recession” • This is both fact and fiction: – Dumb marketing doesn’t work during a recession. – Smart marketing does work during a recession. • Too often we get sloppy in our marketing practices during booming economic times. – Then we run into a wall and have to shed our bad habits during recessions. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 16
  17. 17. GM Survey of Prospective Car Buyers “If a company can ascertain concretely and in detail just what its buyers would like to have, if it can build its products in conformity with those desires and design its sales and advertising messages so that they will answer the questions that are uppermost in the minds of the motorist, obviously there will be continued improvement in the merchandising processes and a broadening of the service rendered.” larsonassoc@earthlink.net 17
  18. 18. GM Survey of Prospective Car Buyers • Dependability • Operating economy • Safety • Appearance • Comfort • Ease of control (handling) • Smoothness (ride) • Low list price • Pick up and speed Source: Ad Age, January 27, 1934 – Opportunities in a Downturn, December 2008 larsonassoc@earthlink.net 18
  19. 19. “General Motors got into trouble when they thought they were in the business of making money, instead of the business of making cars.” larsonassoc@earthlink.net 19
  20. 20. Marketing Does Work in a Recession • McGraw Hill Studies: • During the recession of 1974 / 1975 firms who cut marketing and advertising saw a 21% decline in sales effect over two years compared to firms that did not cut marketing investments. • During the recession of 1981 / 1982 firms that cut their marketing investment saw a 45% decline in sales effect over two years compared to firms that did not cut their marketing investment. Source: Capturing Opportunities in Challenging Times, DDB Yellow Paper – December, 2008 larsonassoc@earthlink.net 20
  21. 21. Marketing Strategies During Recession • “Recession calls for marketing managers to use strategies to stimulate consumer demand. Such strategies often require a re-definition of target customers and the marketing mix.” • Although the (1990-91) economic environment has been termed a “mild recession” on the national level a survey of 101 Marketing Managers showed: – 39% have seen it as a recession – 38% perceive the economy as growth – 17% say the market is stagnant Journal of Small Business Management: “Marketing Strategies During Recession: A Comparison of Small and Large Firms”, July 1993 larsonassoc@earthlink.net 21
  22. 22. Turning Adversity Into Advantage: Does Proactive Marketing During Recession Pay? • “All firms are not equally affected by recession. Some firms view recessions as opportunities to strengthen their business, invest aggressively and establish their advantage over weaker competitors.” • “Firms that have a strategic emphasis on marketing, and entrepreneurial culture and slack resources are proactive in their marketing. Firms that have a proactive marketing response in a recession achieve superior business performance even during the recession.” International Journal of Research in Marketing, June 2005 larsonassoc@earthlink.net 22
  23. 23. Recession for Some Companies = Growth Opportunities for Other Companies • In 1929 only 34% of US Households owned a radio. • In 1933 over 60% of US Households owned a radio – Cost of radio in 1933 = Cost of Big Screen Hi Def TV in 2009 • Time launched Fortune in 1930 and People in 1974 • Fed Ex, Microsoft and Vanguard mutual funds were all launched during the 1973 – 75 recession. • Some companies create their own recession by trying to “save their way into growth.” larsonassoc@earthlink.net 23
  24. 24. Basic Business Truth In a declining market, a company must increase its share-of-market just to maintain the status quo. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 24
  25. 25. Marketing in Troubled Waters “Marketing efforts don’t have to be expensive – and they may be the worst things for firms of any size to cut in a downturn.” Source: Journal of Accountancy. March 1993 larsonassoc@earthlink.net 25
  26. 26. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 26
  27. 27. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 27
  28. 28. “Challenge No. 1 for marketers, both in their own minds and dealing with their senior management, is to get over this culture of fear we’ve all been dealing with.” Source: Get your head in the game. Marketing News 02.28.09 AMA larsonassoc@earthlink.net 28
  29. 29. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 29
  30. 30. A Game Plan To Do Well This Recession • Get a grip • Re-examine your marketing – The time for panic & mix… inaction are over – With a closer eye on ROI – Become proactive in – To get a better showing how marketing can understanding of how best help your organization to reach your audiences. • Get closer – And learn to target, target, – Find out what customers target. Because hyper- expect from your brand targeting could become the major marketing legacy of – Examine your customer this recession. touch points. – Prioritize customer retention Source: Get your head in the game. Marketing News 02.28.09 AMA larsonassoc@earthlink.net 30
  31. 31. Marketing Executives Networking Group • Back-to-Basics Strategy Being Pursued: – What marketing concepts are most important? • 79% - Customer Satisfaction • 76% - Customer Retention • 65% - Marketing ROI • 61% - Brand Loyalty “Economy Weighs Heavily on Marketing Execs in 2009”, Ad Age, Jan 5, 2009 larsonassoc@earthlink.net 31
  32. 32. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 32
  33. 33. Marketing Must Be Accountable for Increasing Revenue Profitably larsonassoc@earthlink.net 33
  34. 34. Marketing ROI • Finance and Operations are measured on ROI. • Marketing usually not measured on ROI. • Management wants to allocate scarce resources using a common measure. • Marketing ROI can be measured. • Marketing ROI difficult to predict because of intervening variables: – Customer behavior – Competitive behavior larsonassoc@earthlink.net 34
  35. 35. Greater Marketing Accountability • Change in Sales and Profit Trends • Changes in Marketing Contribution • Changes in Share of Market • Changes in Marketing / Sales Ratios • Number of Leads / Orders / Deliveries • Conversion rates – Lead / Order / Delivery • Number of Customers • Lifetime Value of a Customer larsonassoc@earthlink.net 35
  36. 36. Marketing P & L Statement Sales (Gross Revenues) (minus) Cost of Goods Sold (Direct labor, purchases, commissions) = Gross Margins (minus) Marketing Variable Expenses (e.g. Adv., promo.) = Marketing Contribution AKA Marketing Margin (minus) Fixed Costs & Overhead (G&A Expenses, Rent, Insurance) = Net Income Before Interest & Taxes larsonassoc@earthlink.net 36
  37. 37. One Way to Measure ROI Marketing ROI = Marketing Contribution Marketing Variable Expenses Marketing Management (a pub of the AMA) has many excellent articles on Marketing ROI. AMA has also published a book Marketing ROI by James D. Lenskold © 2003 larsonassoc@earthlink.net 37
  38. 38. What Is Marketing? larsonassoc@earthlink.net 38
  39. 39. What Is Marketing? Advertising Promotion Public Relations Events Web Site Click Through Rates Graphic Design Gross Rating Points Social Media larsonassoc@earthlink.net 39
  40. 40. What Is Marketing? “Marketing is a business discipline for obtaining and maintaining profitable customers”. Charlie Larson larsonassoc@earthlink.net 40
  41. 41. Profitable Customers! 60% 50% CMO’s CEO’s 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Top Line Rev. Bottom Line Market Share Volume Total Customers Stock Price Share of Wallet Profits Source: Prophet’s 2005 larsonassoc@earthlink.net State of Marketing Survey 41
  42. 42. Marketing • Art? • Or Science? larsonassoc@earthlink.net 42
  43. 43. Marketing Is Behavioral Science larsonassoc@earthlink.net 43
  44. 44. Where Can Marketing Add Value? • Planning for Profitable Revenue Growth! • Executing the Revenue portion of the business plan. • Marketing and Sales have to compliment each other. • Relationships and Transactions. – Marketing has to start the relationship. – Only Sales can consummate the transaction. – Both need to continue the relationship after the transaction. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 44
  45. 45. 5 Very Important Questions 1. Do you know who your best, most-profitable customers are? 2. Do you know what makes them different from your other, less-profitable customers? 3. Do you know where to find more customers like your best, most-profitable customers? 4. Do you have a plan to attract more of these kinds of customers to your business? 5. Do you communicate with your Sales and Accounting Departments on these issues? larsonassoc@earthlink.net 45
  46. 46. Who Needs A Strategy? larsonassoc@earthlink.net 46
  47. 47. Who Needs A Strategy? • People who want to win. • People who do not want to waste resources. • People who want a long and productive career. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 47
  48. 48. Building the Business & Putting Out Fires You are here X larsonassoc@earthlink.net 48
  49. 49. Building the Business & Putting Out Fires You want to be: Here ? Here ? Here ? You are here X larsonassoc@earthlink.net 49
  50. 50. Available Tactics Print Media Public Relations Direct Mail E-Mail Blasts Web 2.0 Events Facebook Twitter Consumer Generated Broadcast Media Content larsonassoc@earthlink.net 50
  51. 51. Thinking Tactically You want to be here X Tactic Tactic Tactic Tactic Tactic You are here X larsonassoc@earthlink.net 51
  52. 52. Thinking Strategically You want to be here X Tactic Road Map Strategy Tactic Tactic You are here X larsonassoc@earthlink.net 52
  53. 53. The Buying Process Stimulus Consider Identify the customer (options) behavior that needs to be modified at each stage of the Buying Process and Search Experience (information) the most appropriate contact programs to accomplish this. Choose (options) Buy larsonassoc@earthlink.net 53
  54. 54. Universal Marketing Planning Objectives Tactics Strategy Road Map Branding Positioning Competitive Analysis Past Business Results larsonassoc@earthlink.net 54
  55. 55. The Difference Between: • Objectives • Strategies • Tactics larsonassoc@earthlink.net 55
  56. 56. “Too many people concentrate on doing things right than on doing the right things.” Peter Drucker larsonassoc@earthlink.net 56
  57. 57. The Difference Between: Objectives Quantifiable measurements of achievement in the future. Strategies Doing the “right things”. What we should do to accomplish our objectives. Tactics Doing “things right”. How we should do things to accomplish our objectives. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 57
  58. 58. Objectives • Objectives have numbers: – Either a concrete number, such as $X revenue and $Y profit. – Or a relative number, such an increase of Z% over the previous year. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 58
  59. 59. Strategy • Strategies do not have numbers. • A strategy is a behavioral statement of how the objectives will be met, such as “draw customers from competition”. – What changes in customer behavior do you need to meet your objectives? – What changes in behavior will your organization make to change customer behavior? larsonassoc@earthlink.net 59
  60. 60. Tactics • Tactics have specifics, usually stated as numbers: – Size and frequency of advertising messages. – Prices and costs – Timetables. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 60
  61. 61. Boston Consulting Group Portfolio High Brand Share Cash Cows Rising Stars Low (Invest Time High (Milk Profits) & Money) Industry Industry Growth Dead Dogs Problem Children Growth (Bury Business) (Invest Time) Low Brand Share Source: Boston Consulting Group larsonassoc@earthlink.net 61
  62. 62. Strategy Example • There are only three real sources of business (customer behavior): – Attract entirely new customers to the market category. – Attract customers from your competitors (build share). – Have your current customers buy more of your services or products. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 62
  63. 63. Strategy Example High Market Share Have current Attract entirely customers buy more new customers. High Low from you. Market Market Growth Growth Exit the business, Attract customers invest in CD’s. from competitors. Low Market Share larsonassoc@earthlink.net 63
  64. 64. Brand Strategy Format Target Audience Description: Insights that describe the motivations that bring someone into your market in the first place: Examples: Coffee drinkers concerned about caffeine intake. Blue collar workers who travel the Midwest. New mothers concerned about what to feed their baby. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 64
  65. 65. Brand Strategy Format Target Audience Description Current Thoughts & Behavior larsonassoc@earthlink.net 65
  66. 66. Brand Strategy Format Target Audience Description Current Thoughts & Desired Thoughts & Behavior Behavior larsonassoc@earthlink.net 66
  67. 67. The Brand Strategy Audience Description As a real person. Their needs and motives as they enter the market for your brand of service or product. Current Thoughts and What’s in It for Me? Desired Thoughts and Behavior. Behavior. Why Should I Believe You? Brand Personality. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 67
  68. 68. Winning & Maximizing Resources • To win, you need to know the answers to these questions: – What are your business objectives? – Who are your sources of business? – What changes in behavior do you need from your sources of business? – What changes in your behavior should you make to elicit this change in customer behavior? larsonassoc@earthlink.net 68
  69. 69. Who Needs A Strategy? • People who want to win. • People who do not want to waste resources. • People who want a long and productive career. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 69
  70. 70. Branding To Make Your Company More Valuable larsonassoc@earthlink.net 70
  71. 71. What Is A Brand? “A brand is an economic relationship between a buyer and seller based on a consistent experience with the product or service which meets or exceeds the buyer expectations. “This relationship can be functional, emotional or both. “The relationship is strengthened or weakened by every contact between the brand and the customer.” Charlie Larson larsonassoc@earthlink.net 71
  72. 72. What Is A Brand? “A brand is an intangible asset defined by the expectations people have about an entity. These expectations are developed over time by what the entity communicates and – more importantly – by what it does.” Eric Hutchinson – The Brand Consultancy larsonassoc@earthlink.net 72
  73. 73. What Is A Brand? “Your brand is the relationship between you and your target audiences that secures future earnings by securing preference and loyalty. A brand is the fusion of the emotional with the functional components of a product or service… Strong brands address an idea beyond the attributes and functional benefits.” Nick Russel - Interbrand larsonassoc@earthlink.net 73
  74. 74. Common Brand Elements Experience = Relationship Expectations If the Experience is equal to, or greater than Expectations, you have a positive relationship. If the Experience is less than Expectations, you have a negative relationship. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 74
  75. 75. Financial Reasons for Strong Brands A strong brand = A strong relationship with customers = Strong positive cash flow into the future. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 75
  76. 76. Financial Brand Valuation larsonassoc@earthlink.net 76
  77. 77. Internal Branding larsonassoc@earthlink.net 77
  78. 78. “Marketing is too important to leave to the marketing department. “Everyone in the organization has to make decisions based on the impact on the customer.” David Packard – Co-Founder – Hewlett-Packard larsonassoc@earthlink.net 78
  79. 79. Internal Branding: Basic Premise • Companies are missing a competitive advantage if their employees are not brand advocates. • CRM is more than software. • Everyone in a company needs to “walk the talk”. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 79
  80. 80. Internal Branding: Definition • Delivering the brand promise to your customers through internal: – Functions – Departments – People larsonassoc@earthlink.net 80
  81. 81. Who’s Delivering Your Experience? • The Marketing Department? • Manufacturing? • Operations? • Finance? • Your Sales Department? • Brokers/Dealers? • Your employees? • Your customer’s employees? larsonassoc@earthlink.net 81
  82. 82. Delivering Your Brand Experience • If it is someone outside the Marketing Department (and it usually is)… • Then the expectations set up by the Marketing Department has to be met (exceeded) by another Department(s). • Is anyone facilitating this internal relationship? • Hint: This could make you a hero. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 82
  83. 83. Internal Branding Initiatives • Market research to determine unmet needs in your market. • R&D to innovate solutions to customer needs. • Strategic marketing plans to take advantage of competitive weaknesses. • Greater emphasis on customer service to cement the brand relationship. • Improvements in existing products / services. • Stronger warranties to take the worry out of purchasing by buyers. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 83
  84. 84. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 84
  85. 85. © 1999 “Why have marketing? To make money.” larsonassoc@earthlink.net 85
  86. 86. The End of Marketing As We Know It • “Marketers need to stop fooling around with the marketing-is-an-inscrutable-mystery hogwash and get down to business. • When you understand that marketing is what you do to sell stuff, then the money that you lay out is an investment instead of an expense. • You absolutely cannot spend more money every year just to keep your old volume. • Strategy is the one thing that will keep you clean. When in doubt, just check what you want to do against the strategy”. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 86
  87. 87. © 2003 “You are trying to move product and / or service. Period.” larsonassoc@earthlink.net 87
  88. 88. Why Most Marketing Sucks: 1. They really don’t know what marketing is, 2. They go for generalities, 3. They do not employ a swarming offense, 4. They launch expensive programs that are devoid of innovative thinking, 5. They ignore readily available research that would allow them to pinpoint ideal prospects. 6. Corporate management allows the drivers of the marketing process to be unaccountable for generating a measurable ROI. 7. Managers refuse to admit the only meaningful ROI is: a) Recruitment of new customers b) Sale of additional products to existing customers larsonassoc@earthlink.net 88
  89. 89. Important Sources • www.marketingpower.com (American Marketing Assn.) • www.brandchannel.com (Interbrand) • www.prophet.com (Prophet) • www.adage.com (Advertising Age) • www.wsj.com (Wall Street Journal) • A Technique for Producing Ideas (James Webb Young) • The Essential Drucker (Peter Drucker) • Marketing Management (Bi-monthly publication of AMA) larsonassoc@earthlink.net 89
  90. 90. Marketing Through Recessions • Get to know the mind-set of your best customers. • Develop strategic marketing plans that change behavior in order to: – Obtain and maintain a larger number of profitable customers. • Be accountable for increasing revenue. • Use Internal Branding to deliver a superior experience to your customers. • Smart marketing has always worked.. larsonassoc@earthlink.net 90

×