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eGovernance Research Grand Challenges

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A presentation of the MettEG 2011 keynote speech and paper

A presentation of the MettEG 2011 keynote speech and paper

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  • Power law distribution, Tipping points, Cascade effectsLiquid modernity, Flat world, Chaos theoryPermanent instability and critical state
  • Present:collaborative policy making requires in-depth understanding and attention, and involves only a self-selected micro-elites of participants with total separation from non-participants and risks of group thinking. When large-scale participation occurs, input is often of low value or confrontational and data processing is mostly human, at high cost. Costs of engagement and analysis remain high, and online-discussion too separated from mainstream prioritieseven in cases where online collaboration happens, little real-world action derives. Even when ICT provides sufficient evidence, this does not translate into concrete action by government and citizens, because of confirmation bias, risk aversion, lack of attention, lack of incentives – as in the case of climate change.
  • Transcript

    • 1. A Roadmap for Research in Electronic Governance:
      The Grand Challenges ahead
      YannisCharalabidis
      Assistant Professor, University of the Aegean
      Manager, Greek Interoperability Centre
    • 2. Your keynote speaker
      Software engineer, National Technical University of Athens
      PhD in complex information systems, NTUA
      7 years a researcher in RTD projects for businesses and governments
      7 years in the software industry (Greece, Netherlands, Germany Poland). Managing director of Baan-Singular ERP company
      Already 4 years in Uni Aegean, teaching and researching on eGovernance (another 3 “remaining”)
      The next 7 years ?
      My aim for the day: to give you food for thought.
      Hold on …
    • 3. The problem: policy-making and governance in a complex world
      Rising number of tipping points, unpredictable “black swan” events: (financial and economic crisis; terrorist attacks, climate change)
      Can’t be adequately addressed by traditional econometric models
      Politicians are not used to evidence-based decisions
      Explosion in authorship, co-creation and collaboration
      Mass collaboration and participation
      Open data, open innovation models
      Government 2.0
      More intelligence and more stupidity, more signal and more noise
    • 4. Governance: often silos-based, linear, obscure, hierarchical, over-simplified
      Policies, Disciplines and Actors are isolated
      Society: increasingly interconnected, flexible, fast-evolving, unpredictable
      The Problem: Gap between Society and Governance
    • 5. The problem: We need a mix of ICT with Social Sciences
      Web Technologies
      Systems & Services Technologies
      “Hard”
      Public Sector Service Systems
      Workflow Systems
      Enterprise Resource Management
      Cloud computing
      Web 2.0
      Argument Visualization
      Mixed Reality
      Pattern Recognition
      Serious Games
      Electronic Participation
      Translation Systems
      Social Networks
      PS Knowledge Management
      Legal Structures Management
      Business Intelligence
      Data & Opinion Mining
      Simulation
      Forecasting - Backcasting
      Optimization
      Systems Dynamics
      Adaptive Models
      Behavioral Modelling
      Societal Modelling
      Social Simulation
      Social Informatics
      Management Tools
      “Soft”
      Society
      Administration
    • 6. "The problems that we have created cannot be solved at the level of thinking that created them" Albert EinsteinSo ?
    • 7. A roadmap for ICT-enabled governance research, beyond 2010, to address global challenges:
      • What are the new needed research directions ?
      • 8. How should we team-up among governments, industry and citizens ?
      • 9. When should we expect results ?
      www.crossroad-eu.net
    • 10. 2020: A Paradigm Shift in Policy-making, using three "powers"
      More people involved (collaborative governance)
      2020
      2010
      More accurate and analytical, modeling and simulation tools
      More data available (the data deluge)
    • 11. The Method
      Future scenarios: demand pull
      State of the art: research push
      Gaps
      Research roadmap (final)
      Grandchallenges (draft)
      Research challenges
      Research challenges
    • 12. The eGovernance State of the Art in 2010
    • 13. High Openness & Transparency: extreme 1
      Self-Service
      Governance
      Open
      Governance
      Low Integration of Policy Intelligence
      High Integration of Policy Intelligence
      extreme 1
      extreme 0
      Leviathan
      Governance
      Privatised
      Governance
      Low Openness & Transparency: extreme 0
      Four Scenarios for our Society
    • 14. WHAT – the Grand Challenges
    • 15. GC1: Model-based collaborative governance
      Today’s policy modeling:
      Human effort based
      Using mainly econometric models and overlooking human behaviour
      Social simulation and agent-based models are marginal, black-box, fragmented and single-purpose
      Progress in modeling software has not matched advances in computing power.
      Designing, reviewing and updating formal models from qualitative and quantitative data is costly.
    • 16. Research challenges
      Integrated, composable and reusable models
      models composability and interoperability (between software and modelling methods) to build on existing models
      Short term research: definition of procedures for model composition and repositories
      Long term research: model interoperability and SOA / GRID
      Collaborative modelling
      Intuitive model building and simulation tools to allow all stakeholders to take part in transparent formal modelling at large scale
      Short term: transparent and intuitive modelling interfaces
      Long-term: mass-collaboration modelling framework
      Easy access to information and knowledge creation
      methods of information elicitation that, during the overall model building and use processes, will help decision makers to learn how a certain system works and ultimately gain insights (knowledge) and understanding (apply the extracted knowledge from those processes) in order to successfully implement a desired policy.
      Short-term: interoperability of data sources, information elicitation
      Long-term: user-behavior information generation; mass-interactive learning environments
    • 17. Research challenges/2
      Model validation
      Reliability of models plays a crucial role in policy modeling and simulation. A policy model should be developed for a specific purpose (or context) and its validity is to be determined with respect to that purpose (or context). Therefore, specific and integrated techniques and ICT tools are required to be developed for policy modeling, (conceptual and software validation )
      Short-term: Consolidation of validation techniques
      Long-term: complex and large scale model validation; artificial intelligence incorporated in validation systems
      Interactive simulation
      It allows a researcher to interactively control simulations and perform data analysis while avoiding many of the pitfalls associated with the traditional batch/post processing cycle.
      Short-term: Usability
      Long-term: Input/output system integration, Computational steering
      Output analysis and knowledge synthesis
      the analysis and integration of feedbacks in modelling and simulation process
      Short-term: Policy model simulation, ranking techniques
      Long-term: sophisticated variance estimators, automated output analysis
    • 18. GC2: Data-powered collective intelligence and action
    • 19. Research challenges
      Privacy-compliant participatory sensing for real-time policy-making
      Dramatically increasing the data availability for policy evaluation while maintaining privacy and ensuring policy inference
      Short term: combination of sensing with social network analysis, data quality verification, context verification;
      Long term: privacy by design; enhanced analytical techniques to respond to subtle events; data collaboration protocols
      Real-time, high-quality, reusable open government data
      Simplifying and lowering costs of real-time open data publication, ensuring data quality and advanced privacy monitoring
      Short-term: data vocabularies; data curating tools; easy linked data publication
      Long-term: on the fly data quality agreements, web of data, real-time validation and publication
    • 20. Research challenges/2
      Federated dynamic identity management and privacy control
      Necessary to ensure trustful collaboration, federated across country, with multiple levels of security for different services, relying on authentic sources, usable in private sector context.
      Short-term: Dynamic user-controlled data disclosure; culturally-dependent identity systems; trust negotiation
      Long-term: context dependent identity management
      Peer-to-peer public opinion mining
      The limits of human attention, combined to the existing simple interfaces available for browsing discussion and comments, often leads to low levels of engagement and flaming wars, driving to polarisation of arguments and enhanced risks of conflicts.
      Short-term research: computer-generated cross-language policy corpora; algorithms for policy statistical analysis; comment recommendation algorithms
      Long-term research: integration with social network analysis; audiovisual mining; peer-to-peer usable opinion mining tools;
    • 21. Research challenges/3
      Intuitive, collaborative visual analytics of data for policy-making
      Visual analytics is particularly effective when dealing with complex and non-predictable patterns, such as those related to assessing and anticipating public policy impact, but is not formalised in the policy context
      Short-term research: Collaborative platform display; Interaction between visualization and models; Visualization infrastructures for policy modelling issues
      Long-term research: Bias identification; learning adaptive algorithm for users’ intent; intuitive affordable interfaces for citizens
      User-generated simulation and gaming tools for public action
      Simulation and serious gaming impact on personal incentives to action and showing long-term and systemic effects of individual choices, but lack open scenarios based on personal and policy decision as well as usability
      Short-term: kit-based citizens-controlled simulation and gaming; integration with policy models
      Long-term: augmented reality in policy gaming and simulation
      New institutional design of collaborative governance
    • 22. GC3 – Government Service UtilityRationale
      Present:
      Traditional public services have not delivered on their promise for time, quality, cost, or overall return on investment
      Citizens rarely have access to personalised services in the way they want
      Service design cannot tap into citizen or SME’s productivity. Services practically remain the same as new service creation is hindered
      Future:
      Services are converging and moving from thephysical into the digital world, universally accessible on any device from all social groups
      Government clouds are overcoming interoperability, privacy and security challenges and provide the base for high automation in public sectors
      Future Internet appears as a key enabler for new public service systems, drastically altering productivity, speed, cost and overall quality
      The 1-1-1 Concept:
      every service can be provided in one stop, one second, with one euro cost
    • 23. Why a Service Utility ?
      Electricity Provision Service Provision
      Ubiquitous nature: electricity is available everywhere, if you have a proper line and device to connect
      Usability: it is simple to connect to electricity network, provided you have an electric device with a standard plug (different from country to country, sometimes)
      Federation: you don’t really know where / how energy is created within a complex network that cross borders, sectors
      Co-generation: you can be a customer and a provider, at the same time
      De-regulation: although Governments set the regulations and may own some utilities, the market is competitive
      Multi-channel service provision
      Simplicity, interoperability, inclusion
      Public Clouds
      Service co-creation
      Service supply deregulation
      See also “6 common characteristics of service utilities (Rappa, 2004)”: Necessity, Reliability, Usability, Utilisation, Scalability and Exclusivity.
    • 24. The GSU Model
      Enterprises, SME’s, VSE’s
      Administrations
      Citizens
      Other / Cross Country GSU’s
      • PanEuropean Core Services
      • 40. PanEuropean Registry Services
      • 41. Cross-country services
      • 42. Highly automated
      cross-GSU Services
      • Private Service Utilities
      Service
      Provision
      GSU
      Service Consumption
      Service Creation
      Service
      Aggregation
      Information Services
      • Open data
      • 43. Semantic services
      • 44. Knowledge management
      Core Services
      Registry Services
      Complex Services
    • GC3 Research challenges
      User-driven innovation shaping Public Services
      Service co-design, co-generation, mashing and deployment
      Citizen generated ideas for new services
      Change the “DNA” of Public Services
      Cloud – based service provision, high automation, interoperability
      Multichannel provision, internet of things
      Services in one second, one stop, at one euro cost
      Digital public services value proposition for all
      Reshape digital public services objectives, scope and means
      Create a value proposition model for all stakeholders
      Massive Public Information as a Service
      Utilisation of public information and knowledge
    • 61. The Governance Cycle and the Management Cycle
      Citizens
      GC 1
      GC 2
      State
      GC 3
      Citizens
    • 62. GC4 – Science Base for ICT-enabled GovernanceRationale
      Present:
      Although a lot of solutions are being developed and applied, there is a lack of systematisation of the domain, hindering re-use of practices, gradual refinement and evolution
      Relations with neighboring domains are not explored, resulting in unnecessary duplications or lack of cooperation
      Future:
      ICT-enabled governance is maturing into a well-established discipline, integrating social sciences, management, operational research and ICT
      Classification of research approaches, applications, problems and solution paths supports gradual evolution
      The research community is constantly updating the objectives and challenges of the domain, utilising new ICT developments for the good of the society
    • 63. Multi-disciplinary issues and relations with neighbouring domains
      Metrics and assessment models, Decision Support, Modelling & Simulation Tools (supporting problem-solution relation, utilising BPM/BPR tools, vertical approaches)
      Formal methods and tools for categorising and analysing the concepts, the problems and solution paths in ICT-enabled governance
      GC4: Research Challenges
    • 64. A collaborative journey…
      3 large experts’ workshops:
      Samos restricted workshop in July 2010 (over 100 participants)
      Roadmap Validation workshop in conjunction with the IFIP EGOV Conference 2010, on August 30th, 2010 (over 50 participants)
      Networking Session (Large Expert Workshop) in conjunction with the ICT 2010 Conference in Brussels on September 27th, 2010 (over 100 participants)
      Online deliberation at http://crossroad.uservoice.com (over 500 votes)
      Validation by the Experts Scientific Committee of the full draft of the initial roadmap
      Ongoing discussion on LinkedIn group
      Average distribution: 30% industry, 10% public administration, 60% researchers
    • 65.
    • 66. My eGovernance Research Hype Curve
      Visibility
      Service Co-creation
      Visual Analytics
      Gov Cloud (SaaS)
      Linked Data
      Open data
      Model-Based Decision Making
      Opinion Mining
      Social Media in Policy Making
      Service Delivery Platforms
      Organisational Interoperability
      Legal Informatics
      Gov Cloud (IaaS)
      eParticipation
      Argument Visualisation
      Gov Cloud (PaaS)
      eVoting
      Societal Simulation
      Instant, proactive Service Delivery for all
      Semantic Interoperability
      Mobile Government
      Web Services
      Science Base
      for ICT-enabled Governance
      Federated eID
      Technical Interoperability
      ICT-enabled historiography
      Inflated Expectations
      Disillusionment
      Productivity
      Time
    • 67. Back to reality: Our current projects on ICT-enabled Governance
      PADGETS: Policy Making through Social Media Interoperability www.padgets.eu
      ENGAGE: Open, Linked Governmental Data for scientists and citizens www.engage-project.eu
      NOMAD: Non-moderated opinion mining (the opinion web) – starting October 2011
      CROSSOVER: A global think-tank on ICT-enabled Governance– starting October 2011
    • 68. As a conclusion
      We need a totally different set of tools for evidence-based decision making by governments
      Societal Simulation, Data and Opinion Mining, Service Co-creation will be the next “big things” for governments that wish to make a difference
      We need to go beyond pure ICT approaches and embark in a multi-disciplinary journey. That’s why we need a science base for ICT-enabled Governance
      But most importantly …
    • 69. eGovernance Research is about our children’s future:
      It is not enough to “do things right” …
      we should “do the right things”
      Stay tuned at:
      yannisx@aegean.gr
      @yannisc
      t-government.blogspot.com