Presentation on German Elections Results 2009 by Rainer Heufers

562 views
487 views

Published on

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
562
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Presentation on German Elections Results 2009 by Rainer Heufers

  1. 1. Diskusi Pemilu Jerman 2009 FNS Indonesia Jakarta 06 October 2009
  2. 2. German Parliamentary Elections 27 September 2009 Rainer Heufers 6 October 2009
  3. 3. Who was competing? Purple Black Red Yellow Green
  4. 4. Election Results
  5. 5. Back to 1949…?
  6. 6. Voter turnout reduced
  7. 7. Geographic distribution
  8. 8. West and East Germany
  9. 9. West and East Germany
  10. 10. Analysis by profession (in %) 5 (+1) 12 (+4) 13 (+5) 29 (-7) 39 (-3) Pensioners 19 (+5) 7 13 (+4) 25 (-5) 32 (-6) Officials 14 (+2) 6 27 (+8) 14 (-7) 33 (-9) Self-employed 14 (+3) 11 (+3) 16 (+6) 20 (-16) 32 Employed 7 (+2) 18 (+6) 13 (+5) 24 (-13) 28 (-2) Workers 10 (+3) 25 (+2) 11 (+3) 22 (-8) 21 (-2) Unemployed Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU
  11. 11. Analysis by age (in %) 5 (+1) 10 (+3) 13 (+4) 27 (-7) 42 (-1) 60+ 12 (+4) 15 (+4) 15 (+6) 24 (-10) 30 (-4) 45 – 59 15 (+4) 12 (+3) 16 (+7) 21 (-13) 30 (-2) 35 – 44 14 (+4) 12 (+3) 18 (+6) 17 (-16) 28 (-1) 25 – 34 16 (+5) 12 (+3) 15 (+5) 17 (-21) 25 (-1) 18 – 24 Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU
  12. 12. Politik Aliran? 12 (+3) 23 (+3) 14 (+4) 21 (-15) 22 (+1) No confession 9 (+2) 6 (+2) 16 (+6) 19 (-9) 45 (-4) Catholic 12 (+4) 9 (+3) 15 (+5) 29 (-11) 31 (-2) Protestant Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU
  13. 13. Reasons for Voting Decisions 18 15 13 (+0) 24 Long-term sympathy 21 12 20 (+8) 22 32 (+16) Candidates 55 74 73 62 (-10) 49 40 (-18) Competence Total Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU
  14. 14. Gains and losses (in %) - 350,000 - 110,000 - 2.1 million - 1.2 million Mobilisation of voters + 210,000 + 60,000 - 490,000 - 600,000 Generational + 860.000 + 1.3 million + 1.6 million + 870,000 From other parties - 130,000 - 3.7 million - 1.2 million To other parties Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU
  15. 15. Seat allocation
  16. 16. Coalition Building on the National Level “ Jamaica-coalition” “ Traffic light coalition” Black Red “Grand Coalition” (1966-69, 2005-09) Black Yellow (1961-66, 1982-1998) (currently negotiated) Red Green (1998-2005) “ Social liberal” (1969-1982) Red Red Green
  17. 17. Negotiating a Coalition
  18. 18. Negotiations <ul><li>Location: representative office of German state of NRW </li></ul><ul><li>Time: Until Parliament convenes on 27 October or before 9 November </li></ul><ul><li>9 FDP reps, 18 CDU/CSU reps </li></ul><ul><li>Result will be a more or less specific contract (1994: 50 pages) </li></ul>
  19. 19. 7 working groups discussing 2 ministerial portfolios each <ul><li>Foreign – Security policy </li></ul><ul><li>Economic and Financial Policies </li></ul><ul><li>Homes Affairs and Law </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>Traditional practice: </li></ul><ul><li>No side of the table will gain both resorts of a working group </li></ul><ul><li>Each working group has two Chairpersons from both camps </li></ul>
  20. 20. Issues Highly contentious Problematic Less problematic Easy Home Affairs / Internal Security Public health Taxes Stimulus packages Nuclear power Agriculture Unemployment welfare benefits Labour policies Foreign policy Security Defence
  21. 21. 1 Chancellor 15 Ministers <ul><li>Foreign Affairs / Vice Chancellor Home Affairs Law Finance Economics/Technology Labour/Welfare Nutrition/Agriculture/ Consumer Protection </li></ul><ul><li>Defense Family/Seniors/Women/Youth Health Traffic/Works/Urban Planning Environment/Nuclear Safety Education/Research State Secretariat (Chancellery) Economic Cooperation/Development </li></ul>
  22. 22. Diskusi Pemilu Jerman 2009 FNS Indonesia Jakarta 06 October 2009

×