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Doe dollar per watt overview

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  • 1. Is it Time for a “Sun Shot”? $1/Watt Workshop Washington, D.C. 10 August 2010
  • 2. “We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard. “Because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills. “Because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win….”John F. Kennedy - September 12, 1962
  • 3. Temperature Record (1880 – 2008)
  • 4. Days above 100º F <10 20 30 45 60 75 90 105 >120 Much of the U.S. would go from 0 - 10 days above 100º F to 45 to 70 days per year above 100º F 4Source: NOAA U.S. Global Change Research Program
  • 5. Global Sea Level: 2007 IPCC Technical Summary Past 2000 years: 0.0 - .02 mm/year 1870 – 1890: 0.6 mm/year 1990 – 2008: 3.0mm/year (including recent satellite data) 5
  • 6. The sea level is rising. Past 2000 years: 0.0 - .02 mm/year Currently 3.0mm/year Greenland Ice Mass Loss – 2002 to 2009 Ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets measured by GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission. I. Velicogna, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009
  • 7. Carbon Dioxide Concentration during the past 800,000 yearsSince the beginning of the industrialrevolution, the CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by 40%. The CO2 equivalenthas increased by 53% 2008 7
  • 8. 14C is produced through cosmic-ray bombardment. It is incorporated into plants and animals and decays with a 5,730 year half-life.Fossilized organic material is depleted of 14C. Burning fossil fuel will add 12C to the atmosphere and lower the 14C/ 12C ratio.
  • 9. The decline in 14C is toorapid to be explained by mixing and radioactive decay alone.
  • 10. 1) Solar energy hitting the Earth from the sun, averaging over the 11 year solar cycles, is constant. (Input energy remains constant)2) Atmospheric greenhouse gases have increased. (Less energy out)3) As the Earth begins to heat up, it is known that the change in temperature will be less than predicted by simple Energy in – Energy out analysis. The details of the geochemical and biological responses are not fully known. 3) The Earth will warm up until a new equilibrium is reached: When heat radiation out equals the absorbed solar energy. (100 -200 years)
  • 11. Solar PV is a booming global industry But U.S. market share has fallen to about 5% of global output – from more than 40% in the mid-1990s U.S.Worldwide production of solar photovoltaics – in Megawatts 11
  • 12. Bell Labs Murray Hill, New Jersey 17 Bell Labs scientists were awarded Nobel Prizes Schawlow-TownesThe Transistor Silicon solar cell 12 CCD detector Laser patent
  • 13. PV module costs falling, but not enough to be cost-competitive $100 Historical Prices Module Price (2006 $ / Wp) >20 per KWh equivalent 1980 PV electricity cost Note: Based on Module c-Si Purchase Price Not $10 Manufactured Cost Polysilicon shortage 2007 2008 Thin Film 2007 2008 $2 2009 2009 $1.00/W @ >100 GW $1.00/W @ <20 GW $1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Cumulative Production (MWp) 0.5 5 50 100 Production line size (1980) (2000) (2005) (2010) (Megawatts per 2 3 4 10 Year)Source: Adapted from National Renewable Energy Laboratory Lines Per Factory
  • 14. Where are we?• Large-scale solar systems: $3 - $4 / watt, LCOE = 20¢ - 25¢ / kWh• Wholesale generation costs: 4¢ - 7¢ /kWh• Retail rates: 8¢ - 14¢ /kWh.• Over the past several years, solar prices have declined40 – 50%• Solar industry estimate: $2.20/watt (10¢ /kWh) in 5 years 14
  • 15. EIA: Estimated Levelized Cost of New(2008 $/megawatthour) $/ Generation Resources, 2016 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2010, December 2009
  • 16. Effect of $3.50/W TF + Utility Scale $0.40 Solar PV LCoE (1MWp x- Si system) Click to edit Master title style $0.35 (Santa Maria, CA– 1.573kWhr/Wp fixed mount, 6% interest rate)Cost of Electricity ( LCoE) – US$/ kWhr The image cannot be display ed. Your computer may not hav e enough memory to open the image, or the image may hav e been corrupted. Restart y our computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, y ou may hav e to delete the image and then insert it again. ~$5.50/Wp of $0.30 ~$3.50/Wp Click to edit Master subtitle style Santa Maria, CA $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 The image cannot be display ed. Your computer may not hav e enough memory to open the image, or the image may hav e been corrupted. Restart y our computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, y ou may hav e to delete the image and then insert it again. Comb Cycle Nat GasLevelized $0.10 ¢/kWhr LCoEof The image cannot be display ed. Your computer may not hav e enough memory to open the image, or the image may hav e been corrupted. Restart y our computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, y ou may hav e to delete the image and then insert it again. $0.073 to $0.121/kWhr Wind Generation LCoEof $0.05 $0.044 to $0.091/kWhr Source: PG&E, EIA, SunPower2008 analysts day presentation, and Deutsche Bank estimates $0.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 Installed cost/ Wp – US$/Wp Stephen O‘Rourke (212) 250 8670 - Presented at NAS April 2009 16
  • 17. PV at $1/watt, installed: By 2017, demonstration of all key components and installation methods in systems at least 5MW in size and initial production orders made Target could be met with systems installed on the ground or on buildings Earth-abundant materials andThe message recyclable components Meets all applicable safety and environmental standards
  • 18. Reaching cost reduction targets will require advances in all PV system components (estimated) (current goal) Utility System (Non Tracking) Cost Example
  • 19. Scale Also Delivers BOS Cost Reductions (FSLR) 6-8% 12-14% Click to edit Master title style 6-8% 5-7% 2-4% 16-18% 15-17% Click to edit Master subtitle style BOS Price 7-8% 4% 59-69% Improvement 3% Module Price 50-55% Improvement Throughput Mechanical 2012 BOS 2007 BOS Efficiency Spending Low Cost Electrical Location Inverter Project Scale Install Install 20122007 OHSource: Dave Eaglesham, First Solar & Mark Pinto, Applied Materials 19
  • 20. Learning rates for PV systems will decrease as Balance of Systems costs begin to dominate total installation price. 100 PV Learning Curve BOS ($/W) Average Global Sales Price ($/W) Avg Module Price ($/W) System Price ($/W) 10 1 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 Cumulative Installations (GW) Slide 20Source: Navigant Consulting
  • 21. Science and Technology has given us solutions in the past.With the right government policies,it will come to our aid in the future. 21
  • 22. World Production of Grain (1961 – 2004) The invention and industrial productionThe Population of ammonia synthesis by Haber and Bosch made possible artificial Bomb (1968) fertilizers. Norman Borlaug 2005: 1960: Population = 3 B awarded Nobel Population = 6.5 B Prize Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), United Nations
  • 23. A $1/watt fully installed photovoltaic solar energy system – equivalent to 5-6 cents/kWh – would be a game-changer ReferenceCase Reference case $1/watt case $1/Watt Case 2030 Utility PV (GW) < 0.1 0.1 - 1 1-5 5 - 10 10 - 20 20 – 30 > 30NREL: At $1/watt, PV would be 14% of U.S. electricity by 2030, with minimal need for storage or additional transmission
  • 24. We need a new mindset on cost-reduction.Things we’ve never paid attention to before will be the difference between success and failure. What can we learn from other industries? 24
  • 25. Agriculture From this… …to this. • Laser-leveled fields • Fertilizer measured by satellite • Harvested with GPS-enabled precision combines
  • 26. Upgrading 6,500 dual pane windows in the Empire State BuildingInnovative on-site processing – glass is removed, cleaned, retrofitted, andreinstalled without leaving the building
  • 27. Containerized shipping hastransformed global commerce In 1959, the shipping industry loaded and unloaded 0.627 tons per man hour. By 1976, the figure was 4,234 tons per man hour. A ships time in port shrank from three weeks to 18 hours. Source: Matson Navigation Co.
  • 28. • Minimize material use•Lower weight, non roof-penetrating• Micro-electronics integration• Automated installation
  • 29. Solar Shingles – or DIY solar – could nearly eliminateincremental PV installation costs
  • 30. Earthrise from Apollo 8 (December 24, 1968)"We came all this way to explore the moonand the most important thing is that wediscovered the Earth.“ Bill Anders, Apollo 8 Astronaut 30
  • 31. In 1990, Carl Sagan convincedNASA engineers to turn Voyager for one last, homeward look before “Look again at that dot. Thats here. Thats leaving the solar system home. Thats us. On it, everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives …. Every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, … every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there--on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.” “….The Earth is the only world known so far to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate … Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand.” 31
  • 32. Deeply rooted in all cultures, is thenotion of generational responsibility. Parents want to give their children better economic opportunities… and leave the world a better place. 32
  • 33. • Science is predicting that we are alteringthe destiny of the of the Earth.• The full impact of what we have donealready will not be known for 100+ years.The full cost of future damages is not known.• Are we willing to make investments thatwill protect our children and grandchildren? 33
  • 34. An ancient Native American saying:“Treat the earth well: it was not given toyou by your parents, it was loaned to youby your children.”Our generation is in danger of breaking this sacred trust. 34

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