[Challenge:Future] HELL ON EARTH (inspiring change)
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[Challenge:Future] HELL ON EARTH (inspiring change)

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[Challenge:Future] HELL ON EARTH (inspiring change) [Challenge:Future] HELL ON EARTH (inspiring change) Presentation Transcript

  • HELL ON EARTH (inspiring change ) The rational way to control disaster in 21st century PRESENTED BY HASHIM UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI KENYA
  • CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average (e.g., more or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change may be limited to a specific region or may occur across the whole Earth
    • Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth 's atmosphere and oceans and its related effects. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel . These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries.
    • Climate model projections are summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.5 to 1.9 °C (2.7 to 3.4 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 3.4 to 6.1 °C (6.1 to 11 °F) for their highest. The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations .
    • An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation , and a probable expansion of subtropical deserts .
    • Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers permafrost and sea ice . Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events including heat waves , droughts and heavy rainfall events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields . Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional changes is uncertain. In a 4 °C world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.
    • Proposed responses to global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or reflect incoming solar radiation back to space. The main international mitigation effort is the Kyoto Protocol , which seeks to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic interference" As of October 2011, 192 states had ratified the protocol. The only members of the UNFCCC that were asked to sign the treaty but have not yet ratified it are the USA and Afghanistan.
  • politics
    • permafrost and sea ice . Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events including heat waves , droughts and heavy rainfall events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields . Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional changes is uncertain. In a 4 °C world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.
    • Proposed responses to global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or reflect incoming solar radiation back to space. The main international mitigation effort is the Kyoto Protocol , which seeks to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic interference" As of October 2011, 192 states had ratified the protocol. The only members of the UNFCCC that were asked to sign the treaty but have not yet ratified it are the USA and Afghanistan. Proposed responses to global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or reflect incoming solar radiation back to space. The main international mitigation effort is the Kyoto Protocol , which seeks to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic interference" As of October 2011, 192 states had ratified the protocol. The only members of the UNFCCC that were asked to sign the treaty but have not yet ratified it are the USA and Afghanistan
    • In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expire in 2012. US President George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy." At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties , held in 2009 at Copenhagen , several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord . [139] Parties associated with the Accord (140 countries, as of November 2010) aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C. A preliminary assessment published in November 2010 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggests a possible "emissions gap" between the voluntary pledges made in the Accord and the emissions cuts necessary to have a "likely" (greater than 66% probability) chance of meeting the 2 °C objective. The UNEP assessment takes the 2 °C objective as being measured against the pre-industrial global mean temperature level. To having a likely chance of meeting the 2 °C objective, assessed studies generally indicated the need for global emissions to peak before 2020, with substantial declines in emissions thereafter.
    • The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of 1.5 °C.
  • GOAL: Curbing emissions and adapting to change
    • Climate change is one of the greatest environmental issues of our time.
    • We need to act quickly and take advantage of existing solutions to prevent irreversible damage to our planet. Natural ecosystems provide significant opportunities to cut emissions dramatically and to preserve the adaptive potential of our biosphere.
    • Many factors are contributing to climate change, from fossil fuel use to the burning and clearing of tropical forests. We need a comprehensive approach to reduce the impacts of climate change – an approach that decreases emissions across all sectors and enhances the adaptive capacity of all nations.
    • Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at 350-450 parts per million CO2 equivalent (ppm CO2e) is essential. The current GHG level is approximately 390 ppm CO2e.
    • Scientists have estimated that lowering concentrations to 350 ppm may enable us to avert tipping points of ocean acidification and the melting of permafrost and arctic ice. Stabilization at 450 ppm is thought to be the threshold to avoid dangerous warming of more than 2 degrees Celsius, which would bring potentially catastrophic impacts for natural and human communities alike.
    • We are already seeing changing weather patterns impacting food production and species migration. Fresh water scarcity risks becoming even more acute in drought-stricken countries and flooding may increasingly threaten our coastal communities and directly impact hundreds of thousands of people each year. Conflict is increasing over strained ecosystems and local communities are being forced from their homes.
    • Solutions are needed now. Our ecosystems must be able to adapt to these changes so that they can retain productivity, continue to buffer extreme weather events and provide fresh water and a myriad of other services for all life on Earth. In addition, human communities need the knowledge and tools to effectively adapt to the impacts of climate change.
  • Our solution: Protection and sustainable management of natural ecosystems
    • Protecting the Earth's ecosystems can yield immediate, cost-effective climate change solutions that will be forever lost if we do not take immediate action.
    • For example, the burning and clearing of tropical forests is a major – though often unrecognized – source of greenhouse gas emissions. It accounts for roughly 16 percent of total global emissions, more than all of the world's cars, trucks, ships, trains and planes combined. It is now generally recognized that it will be impossible to achieve any of the needed targets for mitigating climate change without significantly curbing the clearing and burning of tropical forests. In fact, reducing global deforestation by 50 percent by 2020 offers nearly one-third of the cost-effective, technologically available options to meet 450 ppm stabilization targets. In addition, intact forests and other natural ecosystems – including wetlands, peatlands, coral reefs and mangroves – also reduce the risk of catastrophic impacts like floods and droughts, contribute to food and freshwater security for both rural and urban communities, allow for species migration and ecological adaptation, and support the livelihoods of indigenous and local communities. Maintaining these ecosystems will ensure that humans and other species can remain as resilient as possible to the impacts of climate change.
  • CONCLUSSION
    • Emergency management is the generic name of an interdisciplinary field dealing with the strategic organizational management processes used to protect critical assets of an organization from hazard risks that can cause events like disasters or catastrophes and to ensure the continuance of the organization within their planned lifetime. Emergencies, Disasters, and Catastrophes are not gradients, they are separate, distinct problems that require distinct strategies of response. Disasters are events distinguished from everyday emergencies by four factors: Organizations are forced into more and different kinds of interactions than normal; Organizations lose some of their normal autonomy; Performance standards change, and; More coordinated public sector/private sector relationships are required. Catastrophes are distinct from disasters in that: Most or all of the community built structure is heavily impacted; Local officials are unable to undertake their usual work roles; Most, if not all, of the everyday community functions are sharply and simultaneously interrupted, and; Help from nearby communities cannot be provided.
    • Assets are categorized as either living things, non-living things, cultural or economic. Hazards are categorized by their cause, either natural or human-made . The entire strategic management process is divided into four fields to aid in identification of the processes. The four fields normally deal with risk reduction, preparing resources to respond to the hazard, responding to the actual damage caused by the hazard and limiting further damage (e.g., emergency evacuation , quarantine , mass decontamination , etc.), and returning as close as possible to the state before the hazard incident. The field occurs in both the public and private sector, sharing the same processes, but with different focuses. Emergency Management is a strategic process, and not a tactical process, thus it usually resides at the Executive level in an organization. It normally has no direct power, but serves as an advisory or coordinating function to ensure that all parts of an organization are focused on the common goal. Effective Emergency Management relies on a thorough integration of emergency plans at all levels of the organization, and an understanding that the lowest levels of the organization are responsible for managing the emergency and getting additional resources and assistance from the upper levels.