Siu vision thailand 2020 aug26 2011

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Siu vision thailand 2020 aug26 2011

  1. 1. เปิดขอบฟ้าใหม่รับมือเศรษฐกิจอาเซียน 2020 Vision Thailand 2020 Apirak Kosayodhin Asian Knowledge Institute 26 August 2011
  2. 2. <ul><li>Current Situation </li></ul><ul><li>ASEAN 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>Thailand Competitiveness </li></ul><ul><li>Global Mega-trends </li></ul><ul><li>Vision Thailand 2020 </li></ul>Agenda
  3. 3. Current Situation <ul><li>Global Situation </li></ul><ul><li>Thailand Political Situation </li></ul><ul><li>New Government </li></ul>
  4. 4. ASEAN Countries in 2015 Market Size 2.67 Trillions $ 700 Millions consumers
  5. 5. What awaits Thailand? Comparison to selected countries Countries with similar profile are up to ~10x wealthier than Thailand Potential to triple per-capita income? Sector mix may need to be shaped Domestic sectors may grow in importance France Italy South Korea 268 Thailand 194 194 Malaysia Nominal GDP Nominal GDP (USD bn) France Italy South Korea Thailand Malaysia % of GDP 2 France 2 Italy 3 South Korea 11 Thailand 10 Malaysia Agriculture Industry Service 0 100 50 Percentage of GDP France Italy South Korea Thailand Malaysia $ at PPP Note: Countries with similar population size and geographic size Source: EIU 2008 data
  6. 6. Thailand's major strengths are low cost of living and healthy environment for employment <ul><li>Difference between overall IMD ranking of Thailand (27) and sub factor scores. Use 10 to approximate 1 standard deviation difference. Source: IMD Competitiveness Report 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Healthy environment for employment contains fair compensation level, high employment rate and high labor force number and business friendly regulations </li></ul>Low High High Gap in ranking between overall IMD index of Thailand with subfactor score Factor effect on ability of Thailand to develop sustainable competitive advantage and prosperity (+10 1 ) Healthy environment for employment 2 (24) Key strengths Thailand can leverage Mgmt practice (8) Low High IMD competitive ranking analysis of major strengths Low inflation and cost of living (23) Economic performance Government efficiency Business efficiency Infrastructure Attitudes and values (7) Appropriate consumption tax rates (22) Competitiveness - Strengths
  7. 7. Infrastructure and business efficiency identified as major weaknesses of Thailand 1. Difference between overall IMD ranking of Thailand (27) and sub factor scores. Use 10 to approximate 1 standard deviation difference. Source: IMD Competitiveness Report 2008 2. Weakness in low number of care providers Low High High Gap in ranking between overall IMD index of Thailand with subfactor score Factor effect on ability of Thailand to develop sustainable competitive advantage and prosperity (-10 1 ) Insufficient health quality 2 (-20) Insufficient education quality (-16) Low productivity & efficiency (-21) Highest priority gap to address Finance: bank efficiency (-4) Societal framework (-9) Basic infrastructure (-2) Tech – low penetration of internet users (-16) Low High Low GDP per capita (-21) Public finance (-2) Business legislation (-2) Low direct investment stocks abroad (-20) Economic performance Government efficiency Business efficiency Infrastructure Insufficient scientific infrastructure (-10) IMD competitive ranking analysis of major weaknesses Competitiveness - Weaknesses
  8. 8. Several mega-trends with high relevance on Thailand's future development People <ul><li>Aging society </li></ul><ul><li>Urbanization </li></ul><ul><li>Health & </li></ul><ul><li>safety concerns </li></ul><ul><li>International </li></ul><ul><li>mobility </li></ul><ul><li>Connectivity </li></ul>Environment <ul><li>Climate changes </li></ul><ul><li>Scarcity and deteriorating quality of resources </li></ul>Business <ul><li>Shifting economic leadership to Asia </li></ul><ul><li>Stronger focus on governance </li></ul>1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 5
  9. 9. SWOT analysis for Thailand shows several opportunities for action <ul><li>Strengths </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Central physical location </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High-quality service </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sufficiency and diversity of agricultural resource </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low inflation & cost of living </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Healthy environment for employment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Opportunities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Aging society (developed countries) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>International mobility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Connectivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shifting economic leadership to Asia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Health and safety concerns </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Weaknesses </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Insufficient scientific infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low productivity and efficiency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Insufficient education quality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Insufficient health quality </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Threats </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Aging society (Thailand) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Climate change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scarcity and deteriorating quality of resources (water, energy, food, soil) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Urbanization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strong focus on governance </li></ul></ul>Source: NESDB 2570 Vision Paper, IMD competitiveness, BCG Analysis Competitiveness analysis Mega-trend analysis Strategic focus &quot;What Thailand should be known for&quot; Strategic pillars &quot;How Thailand should operate&quot; Strategic foundation &quot;What Thailand needs to have&quot;
  10. 10. Potential 2020 Vision for Thailand Transformation from commodity supplier to branded, high value-added economy Strategic Focus &quot; What Thailand should be known for&quot; Strategic pillars &quot;How Thailand should operate&quot; Foundation &quot;What Thailand needs to have&quot; Open economy with high social mobility Culture of tech/ entrepreneur-ship& excellence Coordinated cluster economy system Knowledge & creativity based communities World-class work ethics & governance High value-added economy <ul><ul><li>World's food supplier </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leader in creative products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Magnet for cultural & eco-tourism </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>high-value added services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional logistics hub </li></ul></ul>1 2 3 4 High quality & wide access to social services Sufficiency & sustainable resource management High quality physical & technological infrastructure Prudent fiscal & monetary policy
  11. 11. Transformation towards sustainable, higher value economy National agenda is key to drive transformation Thailand Today Commodity products OEM focus Basic infrastructure Basic use of rich cultural heritage in commercialization of products and services Thailand 20 2 0 Higher value-added products Branded products Higher-quality physical and technological infrastructure Cultural tourism and heritage-based product commercialization <ul><ul><li>Add value </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Build brand </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Invest in infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leverage Thai heritage </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. “ We must become the change we wish to see in the world.” Mahatma Gandhi
  13. 13. LIVE @ www.facebook.com/apiraksupporters www.twitter.com/Apirak_DP
  14. 14. Thank You

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