Catching the Future<br />Before it Catches You<br />∞<br />2009 NMC Symposium for the Future<br />
Catching the Future Before it Catches You<br />1. Methods<br />Extrapolation<br />Delphi<br />Scenarios <br />Futures mark...
Principles of Forecasting (2001) (http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/methodologytree.html) <br />Apprehending the future...
Extrapolation<br />iPhone Apps Store downloads<br />April 2009	1.0 billion<br />July 2009	1.5 billion<br />Sept 2009	2.0 b...
Limitations<br />Trend lines vary<br />Doesn’t account for new things<br />The Black Swan (Taleb, 2007)<br />
Delphi <br />Assemble experts<br />Probe for opinions<br />Rank and distill ideas<br />Reiterate<br />
Example: the Horizon Report<br />“[A] comprehensive review and analysis of research, articles, papers, blogs, and intervie...
Limitations<br />Groupthink<br />Information compression<br />The Black Swan<br />
Scenarios  <br />Stories about futures<br /> Event and response<br />Creativity<br />Roles and times<br />Emergent practic...
Limitations<br />Culture<br />Resources<br />The Black Swan<br />
Futures market<br />Features<br />Advantages<br />Propositions in time<br />Shares to be traded<br />Continuous<br />Distr...
Will 25 or more institutions be participating in Flickr’s Creative Commons project by March 26, 2009?<br />
When will the number of Facebook users hit 200 million? <br />
Limitations<br />Quantitative threshold<br />Physical proximity<br />Market metaphor<br />The Black Swan<br />
II. Scanning<br />Environmental scanning<br />Pattern recognition<br />
Crowdsourcing<br />Different levels<br />Social network<br />Crowd computing<br />Iterated resource feeds<br />
Crowdsourcing<br />Your turn: where do you feed your head?  <br />People, blogs, print, whatever you like.<br />head to th...
Citations<br />iCub, http://infocult.typepad.com/infocult/2009/09/robot-children-toddle-out-of-the-uncanny-valley.html<br ...
More citations<br />NITLE Prediction Markets, http://markets.nitle.org/<br />Cat and kitten, http://www.flickr.com/photos/...
The ultimate links<br />NITLE<br />http://nitle.org<br />Liberal Education Today<br />http://blogs.nitle.org/let<br />NITL...
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Computers of the future

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Computers of the future

  1. 1. Catching the Future<br />Before it Catches You<br />∞<br />2009 NMC Symposium for the Future<br />
  2. 2. Catching the Future Before it Catches You<br />1. Methods<br />Extrapolation<br />Delphi<br />Scenarios <br />Futures market<br />2. Scans<br />Environmental scan<br />
  3. 3. Principles of Forecasting (2001) (http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/methodologytree.html) <br />Apprehending the futures<br />
  4. 4. Extrapolation<br />iPhone Apps Store downloads<br />April 2009 1.0 billion<br />July 2009 1.5 billion<br />Sept 2009 2.0 billion<br />-works with data sources<br />-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics<br />
  5. 5. Limitations<br />Trend lines vary<br />Doesn’t account for new things<br />The Black Swan (Taleb, 2007)<br />
  6. 6. Delphi <br />Assemble experts<br />Probe for opinions<br />Rank and distill ideas<br />Reiterate<br />
  7. 7. Example: the Horizon Report<br />“[A] comprehensive review and analysis of research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews<br />[We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones.<br />A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression.<br />Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”<br />
  8. 8. Limitations<br />Groupthink<br />Information compression<br />The Black Swan<br />
  9. 9. Scenarios <br />Stories about futures<br /> Event and response<br />Creativity<br />Roles and times<br />Emergent practices and patterns<br />
  10. 10. Limitations<br />Culture<br />Resources<br />The Black Swan<br />
  11. 11. Futures market<br />Features<br />Advantages<br />Propositions in time<br />Shares to be traded<br />Continuous<br />Distributed feedback<br />Affordances of play<br />
  12. 12. Will 25 or more institutions be participating in Flickr’s Creative Commons project by March 26, 2009?<br />
  13. 13. When will the number of Facebook users hit 200 million? <br />
  14. 14. Limitations<br />Quantitative threshold<br />Physical proximity<br />Market metaphor<br />The Black Swan<br />
  15. 15. II. Scanning<br />Environmental scanning<br />Pattern recognition<br />
  16. 16. Crowdsourcing<br />Different levels<br />Social network<br />Crowd computing<br />Iterated resource feeds<br />
  17. 17. Crowdsourcing<br />Your turn: where do you feed your head? <br />People, blogs, print, whatever you like.<br />head to the public chat.<br />
  18. 18. Citations<br />iCub, http://infocult.typepad.com/infocult/2009/09/robot-children-toddle-out-of-the-uncanny-valley.html<br />Principles of Forecasting chart, http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/methodologytree.html<br />accessCeramics, Lewis and Clark, http://accessceramics.org/<br />NassimTaleb, http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/<br />Black Swans: Field Museum Library, http://www.flickr.com/photos/field_museum_library/3405475664/; gnuckxcc0, http://www.flickr.com/photos/34409164@N06/3209135920/<br />Great California Shakeout, http://www.shakeout.org/media/index.html<br />
  19. 19. More citations<br />NITLE Prediction Markets, http://markets.nitle.org/<br />Cat and kitten, http://www.flickr.com/photos/bryanalexander<br />Bing’s Twitter search, http://www.bing.com/twitter<br />EpisilonAurigaecrowdsourcing, http://mysite.du.edu/~rstencel/epsaurnews.htm<br />Horizon Report 2010 wiki, http://horizon.wiki.nmc.org/<br />“Apprehendingthe Future: Emerging Technologies, from Science Fiction to Campus Reality”, EDUCAUSE Review, vol. 44, no. 3 (May/June 2009): 12–29. http://www.educause.edu/EDUCAUSE+Review/EDUCAUSEReviewMagazineVolume44/ApprehendingtheFutureEmergingT/171774. More sources there.<br />
  20. 20. The ultimate links<br />NITLE<br />http://nitle.org<br />Liberal Education Today<br />http://blogs.nitle.org/let<br />NITLE prediction markets game<br />http://markets.nitle.org/<br />Bryan on Twitter<br />http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander<br />
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