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  • NC Real Estate Commission(919) 875-3700www.NCREC.gov
  • NC Real Estate Commission(919) 875-3700www.NCREC.gov
  • NC Real Estate Commission(919) 875-3700www.NCREC.gov
  • NC Real Estate Commission(919) 875-3700www.NCREC.gov
  • NC Real Estate Commission(919) 875-3700www.NCREC.gov
  • NC Real Estate Commission(919) 875-3700www.NCREC.gov
  • NC Real Estate Commission(919) 875-3700www.NCREC.gov

Transcript

  • 1. You’re tweeting? Use our hashtag:#GCHARTRENDS
  • 2. RON MIKESH
  • 3. Orange andChatham MarketSummary 2012 Stacey P. Anfindsen TARR Reportstimely, credible, market specific www.tarreport.com Stacey@staceypeter.com
  • 4. 2011 Migration
  • 5. Annual Closed Sales-All of TMLS 36409 34718 3421540000 2975835000 24924 23992 2385530000 22138 20674 19894 19688 19504 19396 19151 1867625000 16465 1359420000 1254115000100005000 0 "1996" "1998" "2000" "2002" "2004" "2006" "2008" "2010" “2012” "1995" "1997" "1999" "2001" "2003" "2005" "2007" "2009" "2011"
  • 6. Orange County Monthly Showings45004000 3851 38333500 31843000 2617 24862500 2285 2118 1906 1859 19762000 1521 13891500 12591000500 0 12-Jan 12-Mar 12-May 12-Jul 12-Sep 12-Nov 11-Dec 12-Feb 12-Apr 12-Jun 12-Aug 12-Oct 12-Dec
  • 7. Orange County Inventory at Quarter End900800700 617600 507500400300200 110100 0 End of Quarter Inventory New Home ReSale "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"
  • 8. Orange County Percent of Inventory w/Price Drop60%50% 48% 46% 40% 40%40% 38% 30%30% 24%20%10%0% "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"
  • 9. Orange County Monthly Pending Sales120 113 106 102100 91 7980 64 6560 55 49 51 45 45 414020 0 12-Jan 12-Mar 12-May 12-Jul 12-Sep 12-Nov 11-Dec 12-Feb 12-Apr 12-Jun 12-Aug 12-Oct 12-Dec
  • 10. Orange County Fourth Quarter Pending Sales350 293300 256 245250 227 205 199200 17315010050 0 "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"
  • 11. Orange County Monthly Closed Sales140 129 119120 112100 89 7780 65 6060 53 55 46 48 36 404020 0 12-Jan 12-Mar 12-May 12-Jul 12-Sep 12-Nov 11-Dec 12-Feb 12-Apr 12-Jun 12-Aug 12-Oct 12-Dec
  • 12. Orange County Annual Closed Sales2000 1765 1754180016001400 1275 12771200 1146 1142 11281000800600400200 0 "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"
  • 13. Chapel Hill/Carrboro HS District Annual Closed Sales1400 1177 114212001000 847 838 752 775 745800600400200 0 "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"
  • 14. Chapel Hill/Carrboro HS District Fourth Quarter Closing Price Metrics$450,000$400,000 $365,000$350,000 $315,000$300,000$250,000$200,000$150,000$100,000 $50,000 $0 Average Sales Price Median Sales Price "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"
  • 15. Chapel Hill/Carrboro HS District Fourth Quarter Median Sales Price/SF$170$165 $164 $160$160 $158 $157$155 $154$150 $149 $146$145$140$135 "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"
  • 16. Chapel Hill/Carrboro HS District Months of Housing Supply12 11 1010 98 6 66 5 5 4 44 3 3 320 150-199.9 300-399.9 500-599.9 800-999.9 Condo Area Total 0-149.9 200-299.9 400-499.9 600-799.9 1ml+ Townhouse
  • 17. Orange County Sales to Original List Price Ratios100% 98% 97% 97% 97% 96% 95%95% 91%90% 89% 87% 87% 86%85% 84%80%75% "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” "2012" FLP<OLP FLP=OLP
  • 18. Orange County Average Days on Market-LADOM300 248250 205200 158150 136 131 135100 72 80 66 64 48 5050 0 "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” "2012" FLP<OLP FLP=OLP
  • 19. Chatham County Inventory at Quarter End700600500400300200100 0 End of Quarter Inventory New Home ReSale "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” “2012”
  • 20. Chatham County Fourth Quarter Pending Sales200 178180 164160 136140 125 121 121120 9910080604020 0 "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” “2012”
  • 21. Chatham County Annual Closed Sales1000 878 900 800 711 700 586 600 521 500 400 292 300 190 200 100 0 All Housing New Home ReSale "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” “2012”
  • 22. Chatham County Months of Housing Supply16 1414 13 12 121210 9 98 66420 "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” “2012”
  • 23. Chatham County Months of Housing Supply70 6360504030 20 1820 14 15 15 10 910 6 7 7 50 150-199.9 300-399.9 500-599.9 800-999.9 Condo Area Total 0-149.9 200-299.9 400-499.9 600-799.9 1ml+ Townhouse
  • 24. FHFA House Price Index Durham-Chapel Hill MSA86420 "2000" "2001" "2002" "2003" "2004" "2005" "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" “2012”-2-4
  • 25. The Ugly• 7 of 11 price brackets in Chatham have an oversupply of housing• 63 month supply of 1ml+ housing in Chatham-down from 165 a year ago• Detached housing at 600k+ in Hillsborough- 30 month+ supply• 5 consecutive fourth quarter declines in the median sales price per square foot in CH-C’boro
  • 26. The Bad• Orange average days on market increased to 142 versus 127 for 2011 closings• The average days on market for closings in CH- C’boro increased to 150 from 135• Both the average and median sales price for annual closings decreased in CH-C’boro
  • 27. The Good• Orange unemployment rate lowest since 4/09, employed workforce in 11/12 was the 3rd highest ever recorded.• The number of price dropping sellers decreased 19% in Chatham and 25% in Orange• Chatham annual closings up 21%, Orange annual closings up 13%• 4th quarter median sales price and median ppf up in Chatham
  • 28. The Future• Drop in months of housing supply should stabilize house prices in some sections and could produce house price increases in other sections.• Average year built of 2012 closed sales in CH-C’boro was 1986, average in Cary was 1998, average in South Durham was 1995……How will the older housing stock compete with alternatives in other parts of the Triangle?
  • 29. MARKET UPDATE - ORANGE,DURHAM AND CHATHAMCOUNT Y AREASJA N UA RY 2 013PAMELA DAVIS, DAVIS APPRAISAL SERVICES
  • 30. ANNUAL RATES OF APPRECIATION - A LOOK IN 2007
  • 31. NATIONAL STATISTICS (FROM ZILLOW)SHOWS AVERAGE NATIONWIDE DECLINE OF 24% FROM MAY ’07 TO OCT ‘11
  • 32. WHAT’S HAPPENED TO REAL ESTATEVALUES IN OUR AREA SINCE THE PEAK OFTHE MARKET IN 2007/2008 ?Most have declined in valueMost condominiums and townhouses were hit harder than single family detached homesLand values in Chapel Hill area do not seem to have changed much (less than 10%) but there are fewer sales and longer marketing timeChatham County has an oversupply of land/lots and the prices have dropped quite a bit.
  • 33. HANDOUTHave as much fun as you can until someone makes you stop
  • 34. MY APPROACH – DATA ANALYSIS.
  • 35. ORANGE COUNTY – CHAPEL HILLNEIGHBORHOODS (DETACHED SINGLE –FAMILY) Sales/Year % Change in Neighborhood Sales in 2012 07/08 ValueNorthwoods 9.3 9 -6%Webbwood 2.7 3 -8.6%Chesley 3.3 3 -9%Southern Village 25.3 31 -9.7%Ironwoods 8.6 6 -10%Stoneridge 5.3 9 -10%Colony Woods 15.3 15 -12.6%Meadowmont 28 14 -15.8%Lake Hogan Farms 26 16 -18%Westwood 4 5 -17.5%
  • 36. DURHAM COUNTY NEIGHBORHOODS(DETACHED SINGLE –FAMILY) Sales/Year % Change in Neighborhood Sales in 2012 07/08 ValueWoodcroft 84 55 -7.6%Parkwood 42.7 37 -8.4%Grove Park 56 49 -13%Southpoint Manor 15.3 9 -12.6%
  • 37. CHATHAM COUNTY NEIGHBORHOODS(DETACHED SINGLE –FAMILY) Sales/Year % Change in Neighborhood Sales in 2012 07/08 ValuePolks Landing 8.6 6 -9.4%Chapel Ridge 15.3 10 -8.3%The Preserve 13.8 18 -13.4%Fearrington 16.6 29 -9%Governor’s Club 46 38 -18%
  • 38. CONDOMINIUMS AND TOWNHOMES Sales/Year Sales in % Change in Neighborhood 07/08 2012 Value CHAPEL HILL AREASummerfield Crossing 6.6 8 -12%Kirkwood 3 10.6 -14.5%Canterbury 7.3 10 -17.5%Southern Village 15.3 15 -18.3%Village Green 4 7 -25%Meadowmont 11.3 11 -30% DURHAM AREAWoodcroft 72.6 42 -9.5%Dunbarton 7.3 7 -15.7%Falconbridge 13.3 8 -11.7% CHATHAM COUNTYFearrington 10 13 -10%
  • 39. WHERE WILL VALUES GO FROMTHIS POINT?Stabilize? Increase? Decline further?
  • 40. MARKET ADJUSTMENTSSq.Ft adjustment $40- $90/ SF DepreciationDecks $1,500 - $4,000Garage (1) $4,000 - $8,000 Suggest .5 – 1.5% per year (on cost approach)Garage (2) $8,000 - $15,000 Consider:Garage (3) $15,000 - Adverse influences- Functional depreciation – $22,000 Adjust for and consider the impact of functionalBasements (unfin) add $10- obsolescence such as a poor layout, extreme decorating, excessive costs for upgrades or $18/sf specialty itemsBasement Finished $ 35- $70 Consider external depreciation ie: high traffic road, power easements, steep driveways, poorlyBath 2 versus 1 add $5,000 maintained nearby properties, close proximity to major highways (backs up to I-40)Bath additional over 2 add $2,500- $4,000 Discount these properties about 3 -10% compared toBath (1/2) add $1,500 - other similar neighborhood properties without the $2,000 negative influences
  • 41. INFLUENCES ON LAND VALUE Positive NegativeNice view- lake, golf course Heavy trafficQuiet roads Nearby large power linesWell maintained nearby properties Airport flight pathsNicely wooded (except large Close to landfill, sewage plant, etc.acreage) (odors) Very steep driveways or lots Poorly maintained nearby properties
  • 42. THANK YOU
  • 43. NC Real Estate Commission Vic Knight – Vice-Chair
  • 44. NC Real Estate Commission (919) 875-3700www.NCREC.gov
  • 45. The MAJORITY of Complaints 1. Misrepresentation 2. Trust Accounts
  • 46. The NEW Trend of Complaints 1. Scams ($$) 2. Money Laundering ($$)
  • 47. NCREC Rule Changes (Pending) (To be Effective 4/1/2013) NEW Rules Amended Rules Repeal of Rules
  • 48. NEW Rules:NCAC 58A.0116 – Handling of Funds ($$) Belonging to othersNCAC 58A.0117 – Accounting of Funds($$) Belonging to othersNCAC 58A.0118 – Trust Monies ($$) Belonging to “Property OwnersAssoc.”NCAC 58A.2201 – Define – BPO & CMANCAC 58A.2202 – Requirements for
  • 49. AMMENDED Rules:NCAC 58A.0103 – Registration of Assumed NameNCAC 58A.0108 – Requires BPO RecordKeepingNCAC 58A.0503 – Renewal Fees from $40 to$45
  • 50. REPEALED Rules:NCAC 58A.0107 – Lengthy Trust AccountRules
  • 51. “Worth”, “Appraisal” or “Valuation” “WAV”
  • 52. Do NOT use : “Valuation”, “Appraisal” or “Worth” ----------------------------------------------------------------------- You can ONLY Use:“Probable Selling Price” (or) “Probable Leasing Price”
  • 53. Total Licensed Per Year by Exam3500 avg=2358 std.dev.=3553000 2860 25732500 2237 2154 196920001500 1335*1000 500 0 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 estimate * as of December 2012
  • 54. Have a GREAT Day ! “Be Safe”
  • 55. Thanks to our sponsor and host!