WHEAT - Presentation for Discussion with Donors and Partners - June 2013

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  • Release of a new variety is usually slow and subject to tough criteria that vary from country to countryFunded by the USAID Famine Fund, six countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nepal & Pakistan) embraced a quicker production method and sowed 52 hectares with 11 varieties, producing nearly 145 tons of Ug99 resistant seed in the 2008-09 crop cycleIn parallel, Iran planted 34,000 hectares and produced 80,000 tons of Ug99 resistant wheat seedAll countries repeated this in 2009-10. The 7 countries combined have sown over 47,000 hectares, yielding 118,000 tons of improved seedBangladesh, Egypt, and Iran had enough Ug99-resistant seed in 2012 to sow at least 5% of their national wheat area (1 ha of wheat produces enough seed to sow 20 hectares, so 5% is safeguard threshold for replacing susceptible varieties in case of a Ug99 outbreak)
  • HJB: You need to stay that this was an incredible achievementWhen BGRI started in 2005/06 90% of all wheat varieties grown worldwide and more than 80% of CGIAR’s germplasm was susceptible to Ug 99. In 5 years CIMMYT and partners developed resistant germplasm and released it in these countries and are now grown on a significant area. Very few if any wheat program world wide would be positioned to achieve this. Only CIMMYT with two full breeding cycles / year could achieve this.You may consider inserting a slide explaining the shuttle system – very simple – i.e. 2 cycles / yearVictor you may use this instead as it also includes countries not included in USAID porject (India and Kenya)
  • Release of a new variety is usually slow and subject to tough criteria that vary from country to countryFunded by the USAID Famine Fund, six countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nepal & Pakistan) embraced a quicker production method and sowed 52 hectares with 11 varieties, producing nearly 145 tons of Ug99 resistant seed in the 2008-09 crop cycleIn parallel, Iran planted 34,000 hectares and produced 80,000 tons of Ug99 resistant wheat seedAll countries repeated this in 2009-10. The 7 countries combined have sown over 47,000 hectares, yielding 118,000 tons of improved seedBangladesh, Egypt, and Iran had enough Ug99-resistant seed in 2012 to sow at least 5% of their national wheat area (1 ha of wheat produces enough seed to sow 20 hectares, so 5% is safeguard threshold for replacing susceptible varieties in case of a Ug99 outbreak)Progress in seed multiplication of new Ug99 resistant varieties by public and private seed sectors & progressive farmers in 6 countries supported by the USAID funds SI 4/8 Impact from seed program. USAID provided CIMMYT and ICARDA 5.4 mlln $ and this allowed fast track promotion of Ug 99 resistant varieties. Except for Pakistan as of next year the critical mark of 5% under Ug 99 resistant varieities is achieved. 5% is a crticial mark since in case of an epidemic, the 5% would allow to provide farmers seed of a resistant varieity (multiplication factor is roughly 20, so if 5% are sown with resistant varieities they could provide seed for 20x greater area.
  • Ethiopia is a key example of how fast susceptible varieties can be replaced – once farmers suffered from an epidemic. 2010/11 Ethiopia had a major YR epidemic and this made farmers ask for seed of new varieties and the Ethiopian system responded.
  • http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/projected-changes-in-cereal-productivity-in-africa-due-to-climate-change-current-climate-to-2080_e3c4
  • *under 100% of the recommended levels of fertilizer use (kg/ha)
  • MSU International Development Working Paper 127 December 2012
  • Best bet: Mainstream relevant gender research into proposal development, by providing practical consulting (what to research, how, who can do, what does it cost)And: Use W1&2 to build capacity among staff/partners & build networksAnd: What can WHEAT do together with other CRPs?But: Mainstreaming gender research & building capacity = additional time/effort & new kinds of partnersAnd: Shifting (more) funds towards gender within W1&2 budget not an option
  • 74 = 35 AgriRes, 27 AgriRes&Extension, 7 Seed Cos, 3 Farmers Rep
  • Can this slide be made easier – too much info
  • Baseline: WHEAT Proposal Outcome descriptions & Generic IDOsHow do you know this outcome has been achieved?To which Theme or Themes‘ outputs does this outcome relate? What is the connecting story?What influence does WHEAT with all its partners have on making this outcome happen? (CoI analysis)What (conditions, factors, requirements) and who (type of partners & actors) is critical to making this outcome happen?What are the key hurdles, risks to making this outcome happen? (assess likelihood, impact)Need to revise is-outputs or outcome statements? (rephrase, combine, strike ..)
  • Another message to the CG – what clients want is better wheat varieties – what the CG pushes is policy and system research I am surprised the indiv. Institute and IAR priorities are identical – e.g. seeds of discovery may not have been linked with pre-breeding which I am sure many would prioritizie for WHEAT
  • Map shows 620 cooperators, who send back data to CIMMYT or ICARDA. Not all nursery sites are shown, as some points are national coordinators, who distribute germplasm to further sites. Cooperators who receive WHEAT germplasm, but do not send back data, are not shown.
  • Just a suggestion – Highlighted are areas CRP WHEAT was scored highest – for all above mean – instrad of using excel sheet at end of presentation –
  • Release of a new variety is usually slow and subject to tough criteria that vary from country to countryFunded by the USAID Famine Fund, six countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nepal & Pakistan) embraced a quicker production method and sowed 52 hectares with 11 varieties, producing nearly 145 tons of Ug99 resistant seed in the 2008-09 crop cycleIn parallel, Iran planted 34,000 hectares and produced 80,000 tons of Ug99 resistant wheat seedAll countries repeated this in 2009-10. The 7 countries combined have sown over 47,000 hectares, yielding 118,000 tons of improved seedBangladesh, Egypt, and Iran had enough Ug99-resistant seed in 2012 to sow at least 5% of their national wheat area (1 ha of wheat produces enough seed to sow 20 hectares, so 5% is safeguard threshold for replacing susceptible varieties in case of a Ug99 outbreak)
  • A new approach that seems promising to improve the response to selection for quantitative traits is genomic selection.Genomic selection use marker data across the whole genome to predict any trait with an accuracy hopefully sufficient to allow selection on that prediction alone.GS estimates marker effects on a bases of a genotyped and phenotyped training populations and selects favorable individuals based on genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs).
  • WHEAT does not attempt to convert wheat from C3 to C4

Transcript

  • 1. CRP Engagement with DonorsMontpellier, 17-18th June 2013http://wheat.org/Victor Kommerell, CRP ProgramManager: v.kommerell@cgiar.org
  • 2. Todays Agenda WHEAT IDOs, Impact Pathways & Theories ofChange– WHEAT research results and impact on theground & Regional collaborations– Gender and Impact– Intermediate Development Outcomes &Flagship Projects– Next Steps to refine IDOs etc. with R4D partners Partnerships– Current status– Next steps Conclusions
  • 3. Impact pathway in action – Fighting against athreat to global food security (Ug99)Genetic discovery &breeding for Ug99resistance (fasterthru 2 breedingcycles p.a.)Improved varietiesavailable to NARS& first releases byNARSIn 5 years from90% susceptiblevarities to …IDO cluster: Improvedvarieties onto research &farmers fields
  • 4. And make 6 countries epidemic-proof: Greatexample of IAR-NARS-Donors collaboration2006-2008:Genetic discovery& breeding forUg99 resistanceaccelerated thrushuttle breedingMexico - Kenya)2009: Improvedvarieties availableto NARS & firstreleases by NARS –thanks to BGRI2008-12: Seedmultiplication in 6vulnerablecountries:Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Egypt, Ethiopia,Nepal , Pakistanand Iran – USAIDFamine project,CGIAR W1&2, Iran2012-13 season:5% of nationalwheat areathreshold tocounter anepidemic isreached
  • 5. Bigger WHEAT impact picture: Improvedvarieties in farmers’ fields%WheatAreaCGIAR cultivars CGIAR derived cultivars Non-CGIAR related0%25%50%75%100%(Lantican et al., 2005)
  • 6. From ToStripe Review Recommends: GxMxE^I, robustmetrics, cross-cutting methodologiesField scale Multi-scaleNRM NRM & innovation systems & Climate ChangeProtocols / guides Precision AgricultureSustainable wheat-based systems1992: CAlong-termexperimentstarts1994 RiceWheatConsortium(RWC)IndoGangesPlain: Zerotillage2007: RWCimpactsassessed / CAHub inMexico:Proof-of-concept forinnovation &learningplatform2009: CSISAPhase 1 kicksoff /MasAgroTake It ToThe Farmer(TTF) starts• Of 15 farming systems in areasof greatest poverty• 12 are rice-, maize- and/orwheat-based systems• Drives WHEAT Theme 2(sustainable wheat-basedsystems)IDO: Sustainably growmore with less forimproved livelihoods
  • 7. WHEAT Regional Collaborations: CSISA asmodelCollaborationacross CRPs:WHEAT, GRiSP,MAIZE, Policy,Livestock, CCAFS, inthe Indo GangeticPlain
  • 8. Number of poor in wheat-based systems inSouth AsiaCereal systems >50% areaunder crop>25% areaunder cropWheat systems 175 million 284 million% of total poor(ca. 516mn) 34% 55%Source: Sonders 2013; based on data from IFPRI, World Bank , FAO, UNDP:People living on $1.25 or less a day
  • 9. Add Precision Ag to the Systems mixIDO: Sustainably grow more withless for improved livelihoods• Wheat uses more N than any othercrop (19%)• China, India and Pakistan apply 50%of all N used for wheat• Nitrogen use efficiency in LDC only1/3 = 2 of 3 kg N applied end up inwater or air• NUE in W-Europe is about 65% =twice as high; Max. NUE is around80%
  • 10. Debre ZeitHoletta  Haremaya SinanaAwassaKulumsa Sirinka Adet Debre BirhanAmbo Areka Werer GodeJijiga MekeleAlemataGonder Improved agronomic/IPM practices 122 improved wheat varietiesreleased ≥ 80 CGIAR origin /cross Yields up from 0.6 t/ha 1970 to 2t/ha in 2012Example in Africa: Impact in EthiopiaIDO cluster: Improvedvarieties onto research &farmers fields
  • 11. UNEP (2009) The EnvironmentalFood Crisis - The EnvironmentsRole in Averting Future FoodCrises, Hugo Ahlenius, Nordpil.Climate changebringsopportunities toAfrica – Changes incereal outputsWhat about the rest of Africa?Wheat for Africa (W4A)!
  • 12. Modelling study shows: Africa can grow morewheat profitablyEight SSA countries couldincrease wheatproduction profitably tomeet growing demandWHEAT for AfricaconferenceAfrican MoA haveendorsed wheat as astrategic crop
  • 13. African working women drive wheatconsumption As more women join thelabor force, African wheatdemand grows, along withurbanization Wheat products take lesstime to prepare than manyother popular staples Africa spent $US20bn onwheat imports in 2012Dr. Nicole Mason, MSUKinshasa supermarketWHEAT Theme 1(better target &prioritize)
  • 14. Gender emphasis:Understand & IntegrateTwo big Challenges1. WHEAT (rural) target regions= often paternalistic, male-dominated societies2. Developing ALL rural talent iskey to sustainable greaterproductivityNeed for Action Understand hurdles & identifysensible ‘entry-points’ forimproving equity & equalityFocal areas: WHEAT Gender audit Scoping Study on StrengtheningGender Integration in South Asia Coming up: Diagnosis of genderrelations in wheat production,processing and marketing in keytarget regions
  • 15. WHEAT Impacts … An added value ofwheat produced = US$1.3 billion by 2020 &US$ 8.1 billion by 2030 Enough wheat to feedan additional 56 millionconsumers by 2020 &an additional 397million by 2030 Breaking the wheatyield barrier by 50%Expected Impact (as stated in 2011 Proposal, excerpts)Study PeriodcoveredAll breeding Attributed to IWINByerlee and Traxler(1996)1966-90 $3.0bn per yearInternal rate ofreturn of 53%$1.5bn per yearHeisey et al. (2002)mid-range estimate1996-97 $2.4bn per year $1.1bn per yearLantican et al.(2005)--mid-rangeestimate1988-2002 $3.4-4.8bn per year $1.0 to 1.8bn per yearMarasas et al.(2004)--leaf rustresistance only1973-2007 $5.4bn net present valueEvenson andRosegrant, 20021965-2000 With no breedingresearch:9-14% reduction inoutput29-61% increase inpriceWith no CGIAR5-6% reduction in output19-22% increase in price
  • 16. What impact? - WHEAT re-assessed partner prioritiesamong NARS, extension, seed companies and farmer organizationsType ofImpactFood: Increasingdemands for foodmet. Stable foodprices for poorconsumersFood andEnvironment:Moresustainable &resilient farmingsystems, despiteclimate impactEnvironment:Increasedproductionthrough higheryields and betterstress resistancePovertyreduction andequity: Povertyand malnutritionare reduced(women andchildren)Povertyreduction andequity: Betteraccess tocutting-edgetechnologies(role of privatesector)Capacity: Anew generationof scientists andotherprofessionalsRanking(based on noof points)1st(1255)2nd(1084)2nd(1021)4th(788)3rd(940)1st(1312)1st/1st or 2ndchoice (no ofpartners) 24 7 9 4 6 1574 responses to PartnerPriorities Survey
  • 17. Generating impact by delivering on anintegrated set of Flagship Products
  • 18. WHEAT Flagship products matched with genericIDOsSI 5 – Durable Pest &Disease resistanceSI 6 – Enhanced Heat& Drought ToleranceSI 7 – Breaking theYield BarrierSI4ProductiveWheatVarietiesSI9SeedsofDiscoveryFARMERSSI 10 Strengthening CapacitiesSI 1 Technology Targeting for Greatest ImpactComprehensive Wheat Improvement Systems: on Field & Farm Adoption & UseSI 2 – SustainableWheat-based SystemSI 3 – Nutrient- andWater-use EfficiencySI 8 - More andbetter SeedIDOs: NRMproductivity, systems,environmental,livelihoods, innovationIDOs: future options,productivity (carbon)IDOs: Productivity,environment, riskmgt (nutrition)
  • 19. WHEAT Flagship clusters make IDOs possibleSI 5 – Durable Pest &Disease resistanceSI 6 – Enhanced Heat& Drought ToleranceSI 7 – Breaking theYield BarrierSI4ProductiveWheatVarietiesSI9SeedsofDiscoveryFARMERSSI 10 Strengthening CapacitiesSI 1 Technology Targeting for Greatest ImpactComprehensive Wheat Improvement Systems: on Field & Farm Adoption & UseSI 2 – SustainableWheat-based SystemSI 3 – Nutrient- andWater-use EfficiencySI 8 - More andbetter SeedSustainably grow morewith less for improvedlivelihoodsFrontier genetic research:Novel diversity & breakthe yield barrierImproved varietiesonto research &farmers fields
  • 20. ResearchStrategy1:Sustainablygrowmorewithlessforimprovedlivelihoods• System-LevelDevelopmentOutcomesSLO1 Rural PovertySLO2 Food Security•IDO 1. Acceleratedvarieties releasescaled outIDO 2. Farmersminimiseunsustainable effectson soil, environment& improve theirhousehold income &livelihoodsIDO 3. Farmers havemore & betteraccess to qualityseed & use themResearchStrategy2:Improvedvarietiesontoresearchandfarmer’sfields• System-LevelDevelopmentOutcomesSLO2 Food SecuritySLO3 Nutrition &HealthSLO1 Rural Poverty•IDO 1. Acceleratedvarieties releasescaled outIDO4. Smallholders’modern wheatvarieties adoptiontranslates intohigher, more stableyields in WHEATtarget regionsResearchStrategy3:FrontierGeneticResearchfornoveldiversity&breakingtheyieldbarrier• System-LevelDevelopmentOutcomesSLO2 Food SecuritySLO4 Sustainability•IDO 5. Faster & moresignificant geneticgains in breedingprogramsworldwide, usingmore effectiveapproaches forcomplex traitsFive Wheat IDOs
  • 21. Next: Refine IDOs with R4D partnersWhy? Partners are at the interface of generating impact Partner performance influences speed and extent of impactWhat/How? Use “6 Questions” approach to link outputs to outcomes Identify necessary R4D partners and ‘required actors’ Spell out assumptions made; define criteria for assessing performance Detail linkages with other CRPs: What kind? Which projects? Use Partner Priorities Survey responses to define IAR4D roleWhen? Sept 2013: WHEAT-Stakeholder Committee reviews and approves approachto partner engagement March 2014: Main agenda for WHEAT General Meeting (linked to Borlaug100 event)
  • 22. Partner Priorities among WHEAT ThemesTheme 1Bettertarget, prioritise2 wheatsystems3precisionagri(WUE,NUE)4bettervarieties5pests &diseases6heat &drought7breakyieldbarrier8moreandbetterseed9Seeds ofDiscovery10Cap DevPriorityfor owninstit.4th 3rd 3rd 1st 2nd 2nd 4th 4th 4th 3rdPriorityfor IAR4th 3rd 4th 1st 1st 2nd 4th 4th 4th 3rdDivergence of partner and donor perceptionsInterpretation and use of results?
  • 23. 24Fundamental AgriResearchApplied Agri ResearchSocioeconomicresearchEnvironmental researchPolicy-relatedWHEATs different kinds of partners ...CRP composed of Strategic Research Initiatives (SI), …Research DesignStageResearch ActivitiesStageOutputs Stage Outcomes Stage Impact StageExtensionagentsuniversityresearch partnersWYN: ARI’sworlwideDifferent kinds ofR4D partners; perproject, mainlybilaterally funded &‘continuous partners’Research Partners (upstream)Development Partners (downstream)CompetitivePartner GrantsWheat Int’l TrialsCooperators (NARS)– IWIN: 622collaboratorsMasAgro Take It to theFarmer; CSISA innovationsystem partnersSteering partners (on WHEAT-MC:ICARDA, BBSRC, ICAR, GRDC)For special, ex-ante studies
  • 24. 620 cooperators want WHEAT germplasm onan annual basis: Growing demand!
  • 25. CGIAR Partner Perception Survey: WHEATcompared to other CRPs30405060708090100Mean All CRPsMax ScoreWHEAT ScoreGlobal expertise High caliber staffHigh quality research InnovationFacilitating access to research Relevant research / Research results in outputsResponse to clients, credit sharing and communicationR4D partners want to seeWHEAT improve on“involving partners indecisions” and “sharingcredit”
  • 26. Partnership realities and desired futureNow In Future27 Funds: W1/2 & bilateral flow-thru +extra Partner Budget (CompetitivePartner Grants) CIMMYT and ICARDA partner onprogram management & researchdelivery Program Management Partners– Internal: CIMMYT, ICARDA– External: BBSRC, GRDC, ICAR Steering Partners– Broader partner involvement instrategy dev: Launch Conference &Partner Priorities Survey Better know, evaluate ourpartners, act on that knowledge– Different & better (not more)partners– Spend more time/effort on p’shiprelationship mgt Partners’ perspective: Make clearerhow partners will be involved atdifferent levels (researchpriorities, design, delivery)– Driven by adjusting Themes’ projectportfolio to national/regionalpriorities– More joint fundraising
  • 27. Donors who make partnering possibleSelected; from 59 active grants in 2012, of which 20 are funded by W1&2SAGARPA(Mexico MoA)CAAS &NFSC, ChinaCGIAR FundBMZ/GIZ (Germany)USDA & USAIDGRDC & ACIAR(AU)Harvest Plus(CRP4)GenerationChallenge ProgramICAR, IndiaAAREOO, IranJIRCAS &MoFA, JapanBMGF, Syngenta Foundation& Agrovegetal
  • 28. Way Forward for WHEAT
  • 29. ResearchStrategy1:Sustainablygrowmorewithlessforimprovedlivelihoods• System-LevelDevelopmentOutcomesSLO1 Rural PovertySLO2 Food Security•IDO 1. Acceleratedvarieties releasescaled outIDO 2. Farmersminimiseunsustainable effectson soil, environment& improve theirhousehold income &livelihoodsIDO 3. Farmers havemore & betteraccess to qualityseed & use themResearchStrategy2:Improvedvarietiesontoresearchandfarmer’sfields• System-LevelDevelopmentOutcomesSLO2 Food SecuritySLO3 Nutrition &HealthSLO1 Rural Poverty•IDO 1. Acceleratedvarieties releasescaled outIDO4. Smallholders’modern wheatvarieties adoptiontranslates intohigher, more stableyields in WHEATtarget regionsResearchStrategy3:FrontierGeneticResearchfornoveldiversity&breakingtheyieldbarrier• System-LevelDevelopmentOutcomesSLO2 Food SecuritySLO4 Sustainability•IDO 5. Faster & moresignificant geneticgains in breedingprogramsworldwide, usingmore effectiveapproaches forcomplex traitsWay forward: Partnerships for IDO ImpactFaster GlobalBreeding PlatformGlobalPhenotypingPlatformWheat YieldNetworkbased onMEXIPLATPlatformHeat &DroughtConsortiumCoalition for Wheat for Africa(W4A)Regional, multi-hub & -stakeholderR4D programsSeeds ofDiscovery
  • 30. Trainingpopulation• Genotyping• PhenotypingGS model• Estimating marker effectsTargetpopulation• Genotyping only• Estimating GEBVs• Selection• IntercrossingupdateWay forward: Genomics enables fasterbreeding success Improved varieties ontoresearch & farmers fields
  • 31. Way forward: Collaboratively fight majorpests and diseasesExample: Fusarium HeadBlight is global problem, sobundle global R4D resourcesBuild Global Pests &Diseases Observatoryand Early WarningSystemImproved varieties ontoresearch & farmers fields
  • 32. Wheat needs to beat the heat:Photosynthetic Efficiency (WYN)Frontier genetic research:Novel diversity & breakthe yield barrierFood security of 1 billion people in SouthAsia affected by climate change >>accelerating food price inflation
  • 33. Ways Forward for WHEATPhase I:2012-14Phase II:2015-2020Phase III