The Panama Canal Expansion: Potential Impact on Logistic and Supply Chains :: Onésimo V. Sánchez
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  • Tráfico del Canal de Panamá y algunos eventos históricos.A través del tiempo el Canal se ha mantenido proveyendo a los usuarios con la capacidad de mover su carga de una manera competitiva sin importar las variaciones políticas y macro-económicas del mundo. Además de mantenerse firme en su cometida de proveer servicios ininterrumpidos, el Canal también ha tratado de mejorar su eficiencia para mantenerse competitivo.
  • De igual significación, el crecimiento que experimentará América Latina durante el periodo comprendido entre el 2010 y el 2030, convirtiéndose en uno de los impulsores del aumento de la demanda del comercio mundial al llegar a ser un mercado de 700 millones de consumidores. Panamá se está convirtiendo en el principal eje de transporte para servir los mercados latinoamericanos. La existencia del Canal, junto con un sistema portuario moderno y eficiente, hacen del país el lugar ideal para consolidar y distribuir carga desde y hacia estos mercados.
  • Port Esmeraldas to Houston

The Panama Canal Expansion: Potential Impact on Logistic and Supply Chains :: Onésimo V. Sánchez Presentation Transcript

  • 1. The Panama Canal Expansion: Potential Impact on Logistic and Supply Chains Onésimo V. Sánchez Office of Market Research and Analysis June 2012
  • 2. Construction of the Panama Canal was a GAME CHANGER for World Trade 1915 – 2011 Total Number of Transits: 1,015,656 Amount of Cargo: 8,810,111,605 LT
  • 3. Principal Users of the Canal FY 2011 (in Million Long Tons) USERS FY 2010 FY 2011 2011 (%) United States 135.3 144.4 65 China 43.6 53.1 24 Chile 26.7 28.9 13 European Union 26.8 24.2 11 Japan 22.7 22.6 10 South Korea 19.1 19.1 8 Peru 12.9 15.3 7 Source: Compair Data, October 2010
  • 4. Relative Importance of the Canal on the International Seaborne Trade of Countries in the Americas 2011 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Seaborne Exports Source: ACP with information of IHS, Dec 2011 Seaborne Imports
  • 5. Tonnage by Market Segments FY 2010 – FY 2011 113.59 Container 104.59 79.94 Dry Bulk 72.59 34.68 Vehicle Carrier 33.05 48.99 Tanker 46.56 12.83 Refrigerated 14.59 10.77 Passenger 10.34 9.19 General Cargo FY2011 FY2010 7.78 11.71 Others 11.30 0 20 40 60 PCUMS (in millions) 80 100 120
  • 6. Liner Services Through The Panama Canal Vancouver Seattle Hamburg Rotterdam Antwerp Dunkirk Le Havre Marin Bilbao La Spezia Naples Gioia Tauro Valencia Tilbury Oakland New York Norfolk Los Angeles Charleston Ensenada Mobile Savannah Jacksonville Houston Tokyo Qingdao Pyongtaek Yokohama Busan Shanghai Taipei Ningbo Yantian Hong Kong Kaohsiung Chiwan Tangier Miami Manzanillo Lázaro Kingston San Juan PR Cardenas P. Caucedo Pto. Quetzal P. Cabello Cartagena Cristobal Manzanillo Port of Spain Balboa Dubai Manta Guayaquil Papeete Lautoka Noumea Sidney Melbourne Tauranga Auckland Napier Timaru Port Chalmers Callao Ilo Iquique Mejillones Antofagasta Trade Route Asia - USEC Number of Yearly Number of Services Capacity Vessels 12 2,854,409 112 Average Vessel Size 4,579 Pendulum San Antonio 2 492,021 27 4,716 WCSA - Europe 8 1,210,063 58 3,006 Asia - Caribbean WCSA - Caribbean WCSA - USEC Oceania - USEC - Europe USWC - Europe 1 1 3 2 3 236,625 45,552 431,535 796,066 489,988 12 3 18 16 30 4,538 1,248 2,972 2,945 3,132 Total de Servicios 32 6,556,259 276 3,867 Source: Compair Data, October 2012 January 2010
  • 7. Port Development in Panama 1996: 2010: 2011: 2015: 2020: PSA Panama Ports Company – Cristobal Colon Container Terminal 235K TEUs 5.6 M TEUs 6.5 M TEUs 8.4 M TEUs (F) 12.4 M TEUs (F) Manzanillo International Terminal (MIT) Panama Ports Company - Balboa
  • 8. 6.5 million TEU, 18.5%
  • 9. Transbordo en el Caribe: un triángulo 15.6% 16.4% 63.1% 4.9% Fuente: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Universidad deuna Las economías de escala implican Hofstra, Nueva York, mayo 2012, presentación en tolerancia de desvío menor seminario de logística-BID, Quito, Ecuador
  • 10. Profile of main ports in the region (movements in ‘000 of TEUs for 2010 and number of quay cranes) Port name Movement in TEUs Quay cranes Santo Tomás 392K 1 La Habana 228K 0 Freeport 1,125K 16 Caucedo 1,004K 5 Puerto Barrios 326K 1 Haina 288K 3 Jarry 150K 4 Puerto Cortes 583K 2 Limon /Moin 858K 1 MIT/CCT/Cristobal 2,810K 34 Barranquilla 103K 0 Acajutla 145K 0 Puerto Quetzal 583K 0 Kingston 1,891K 19 Cartagena 1,581K 12 Caldera 155K 0 Balboa/PSA 2,758K 25 Buenaventura 662K 4 Puerto Cabello 800K 0 La Guaira 333K 5 Point Lisas 184K 2 Port Spain 389K 5
  • 11. Producción: Servicios del Clúster (2008 Millones) Code CFZN CNOP PORT AGNT CHTR MFUL LINE MMER CRUS XPRC LEGL BRPR ITMS RAIL BOAT PPLN PILO KNOW CLAS CNTR DREG Total: Description Y0 Zona Libre de Colón 1,942.2 Operación del Canal 1,623.7 Puertos 525.1 Agencias Navieras 278.5 Operadores de Turismo en el Canal 239.2 Combustible Marino 216.7 Líneas Navieras 167.7 Marina Mercante 146.6 Cruceros 123.8 Zonas Procesadoras de Exportación 118.2 Servicios Legales 110.2 Reparación y Mantenimiento de Barcos 86.1 Servicios Intermodales 77.4 Ferrocarril 46.3 Suministro a Barcos 31.9 Oleoducto Transístmico 29.1 Servicios de Pilotaje 25.3 Ciudad del Saber 22.8 Clasificación de Naves 14.7 Reparación y Mantenimiento de Contenedores2.6 Dragado 0.5 X0 2,261.7 1,623.7 502.4 329.4 239.2 292.9 153.4 146.6 123.4 129.8 136.9 86.1 74.9 38.3 31.9 29.1 25.3 23.2 14.7 2.6 0.5 5,828.7 6,266.2
  • 12. El comercio global continuará
  • 13. Canal Expansion Program Components • Deepening of Pacific and Atlantic entrance channels • Deepening and widening of the Gatun Lake navigation channel • Construction of new access channel for Pacific Locks • Construction of new Post Panamax Locks and water saving basins in the Atlantic and the Pacific • Increase the maximum operating level of Gatun Lake
  • 14. The Panama Canal - 2014 It’s all about economies of scale!
  • 15. It is all about economies of scale, improving efficiency, productivity, and profitability Operational Efficiency Fuel Efficiency Improve Vessel Utilization Competitiveness 19
  • 16. It is all about economies of scale, improving efficiency, productivity, and profitability Price: Supply/Demand Driven Profitability: Improve Financial Efficiency Environmental Sustainability 20
  • 17. Ripple Effects and Other Factors Ports: Ready/not Ready Adequate Rail/Road Connections Land Value: Adjacent to Ports Transshipment (Caribbean Triangle) Logistics/Supply Chain (Near Sourcing) Value of Ships - Charter Rates 21
  • 18. Locks and vessels sizes Existing locks' maximum vessel size: 4,400 TEU 33.5 m (110’) 32.3 m (106’) 12.4 m (39.5’) 55 m (180’) 12.8 m (42’) 49 m (160’) 18.3 m (60’) 15.2 m (50’) New locks' maximum vessel size: 12,600 TEU
  • 19. Main Global Container Transportation Flows Southeast Asia South Asia East Asia E qu Westbound Route a tor POSTPANAMAX Eastbound Route Landbridge PANAMAX Panama Route 23
  • 20. Main Global Container Transportation Flows Southeast Asia South Asia East Asia E qu Westbound Route a tor POSTPANAMAX Eastbound Route Landbridge POSTPANAMAX Panama Route 24
  • 21. Impact of Expansion on Container Services (Lines Perspective)
  • 22. Panama provides easy access to consumers located in Latin America, the Caribbean, North America, Asia and Europe
  • 23. The expansion will extend the Canal’s area of influence
  • 24. Latinamerica Population / Caribe, Cuba, Puerto Rico, República Growth Projection Dominicana, Jamaica, Haití +11.0% 2010-2030 Pop: 42M México +18.9% Pop: 135M Guatemala, El Salvador, Belice, Honduras, Nicaragua. +28.0% Pop: 19M Costa Rica, Panama +23.0% Pop: 19M Colombia, Venezuela +22.0% Pop: 88M Ecuador, Perú, Bolivia, Chile +20.0% Pop: 85M Uruguay, Paraguay, Brazil, +18.0% Pop: 251M OVERALL POPULATION +19%, 700M SOURCE: «US CENSUS: International Database» Argentina,+17.0% Pop: 48M
  • 25. Retail Sourcing Trends 2011 Top Sourcing Locations            China Vietnam India Mexico Indonesia Bangladesh Thailand Sri Lanka Korea EU Central America 3/15/2012 Casey Chroust, EVP, Retail Operations Retail Industry Leaders Association 31
  • 26. Latin America By The Numbers • 59% of retailers said their supply chains include distribution to and from Latin America • 25% currently have retail operations in Latin America • 30% currently have distribution operations in Latin America • 58% consider entering or expanding Latin American operations in the next five years Note: RILA Member Survey 3/15/2012 32
  • 27. Fuente: The Economist
  • 28. Potential Post Panamax Trade Crude Oil 117,055 DWT Aframax Crude oil: Ecuador – US Gulf Panama: 2,047 nm Magellan Strait: 10,972 nm Savings 8,925 nm ,15 knots, 26 days less
  • 29. Potential Post Panamax Trade LNG PostPanamax Cargo capacity: 145,000 m3 LNG: Trinidad & Tobago – Quintero, Chile Panama: 3,782 nm Magellan Strait: 6,750 nm Savings 2968 nm, 19.5 knots, 6.3 days
  • 30. Network Economics LONG DISTANCE & HIGH DENSITY : LARGE VEHICLE SHORT DISTANCE & LOW DENSITY: SMALL VEHICLE N C N W C E S S 36
  • 31. Conventional Direct North Atlantic Central Atlantic South Atlantic / Gulf Transshipment Circum-Equatorial North Atlantic Central Atlantic North Atlantic Central Atlantic South Atlantic / Gulf South Atlantic / Gulf Caribbean Transshipment Triangle 37 Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, PHD
  • 32. El puerto como un componente de la cadena de transporte FORELAND PUERTO HINTERLAND Corredores de Redes de transporte Operaciones del muelle Apilamiento Operaciones del puerto Terminales internas transbordo Zonas de logística Fuente: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Universidad de Hofstra, Nueva York, mayo 2012,
  • 33. ¿Cuál es la importancia del transporte trans-país? Fuente: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Universidad de Hofstra, Nueva York, mayo 2012, presentación en seminario Logística-BID, Quito Ecuador Distancia Costo 10% Puerto 80% TRANS-PAÍS 90% ANTE-PAÍS 20%
  • 34. Comercio internacional, cadenas y flujos de transporte: De la facilitación a las cadenas de suministro: Comercio internacional Destino Origen A B Procedimientos aduaneros Cadena de transporte Descomposición Ferroviaria Marítima Red A B Composición Flujos físicos Facilitación del comercio Aduana Transbordo Puerto A Centro de distribución B Patio ferroviario Facilitación del transporte Facilitación de la logística Centro de transbordo Fuente: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Universidad de Hofstra, Nueva York, mayo 2012, presentación en seminario
  • 35. Componentes del Índice de Desempeño Logístico, países latinoamericanos seleccionados, 2010 Fuente: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Universidad de Hofstra, Nueva York, mayo 2012, presentación en seminario Logística-BID, Quito Ecuador
  • 36. GAME CHANGERS REQUIRE STRATEGIC PLANNING Onesimo V. Sanchez Office of Market Research and Analysis Panama Canal Authority