WG3 release Chuck Rice 16 apr 2014

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Meeting global food needs with lower emissions:
IPCC report findings on climate change mitigation in agriculture
A dialog among scientists, practitioners and financiers

April 16, 2014
World Bank, Washington, DC

Following the April 13th release of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Mitigation, including Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU), this event will provided an opportunity to listen to IPCC authors summarize their findings and for all participants to join in a dialog with practitioners and financiers to discuss actionable steps for mitigation in the agricultural sector.

The event was a joint effort of the World Bank, the Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases, and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

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  • Cumulative CO2emissions have more than doubled since 1970.Energy supply and industry are responsible for three quarters of the increase of emissions.With an increasing role in the last decade.Steep rise of CO2 from fossil, cement, flaring.Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are known within ±8% uncertainty.CO2 emissions from FOLU have large uncertainties attached in the order of ±50%.
  • WG3 release Chuck Rice 16 apr 2014

    1. 1. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Chapter 11 Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use World Bank Washington D.C., USA 16 April, 2014 Charles W. Rice Lead Author Kansas State University
    2. 2. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission growth is CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes.
    3. 3. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report AFOLU emissions for the last four decades
    4. 4. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Key agricultural emission categories for 2005.
    5. 5. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Regional comparisons for key agricultural emission categories in 2010
    6. 6. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation activities in the AFOLU sector • Reductions in CH4 or N2O emissions from croplands, grazing lands, and livestock. • Conservation of existing carbon stocks, e.g., forests, peatlands, and soil. • Reductions of carbon losses through management changes or by reducing losses of carbon-rich ecosystems. • Enhancement of carbon sequestration in soils, biota, and long-lived products. • Changes in albedo resulting from land-use and land-cover change that increase reflection of visible light. • Provision of products with low GHG emissions that can replace products with higher GHG emissions.
    7. 7. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Agriculture• Cropland – Reduced tillage – Rotations – Cover crops – Fertility management – Erosion control – Irrigation management • Rice paddies – Water management – Fertilizer management – Plant residue management No-till seeding in USA Rice fields in The Philippines Maize / coffee fields in Mexico • Agroforestry –Improved management of trees and cropland • Grasslands – Grazing management – Fire management – Fertilization
    8. 8. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Conservation Agriculture Cropping Systems •Restores soil carbon •Conserves moisture •Saves fuel •Saves labor •Lowers machinery costs •Reduces erosion •Improved soil fertility •Controls weed •Planting on the best date •Improves wildlife habitat
    9. 9. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report • An area of increasing concern since AR4 is the potential impact of AFOLU mitigation measures on food security. • Efforts to reduce hunger and malnutrition will increase individual food demand in many developing countries, and population growth will increase the number of individuals requiring secure and nutritionally sufficient food production. • Thus, a net increase in food production is an essential component for securing sustainable development. • AFOLU mitigation measures linked to increases in food production (e.g., agroforestry, intensification of agricultural production, or integrated systems) can increase food availability and access especially at the local level, while other measures (e.g., forest or energy crop plantations) can reduce food production at least locally
    10. 10. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report GHG emissions intensities Calculations of emission intensities are based on the conservative assumption that production levels stay the same after the application of the mitigation option. Some mitigation options can increase production. This would not only improve food security but could also increase the cost-effectiveness of mitigation actions in the agricultural sector.
    11. 11. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Overview of demand-side mitigation options in the AFOLU sector • Reduced losses in the food supply chain • Globally, rough estimates suggest that ~30─40% of all food produced is lost in the supply chain from harvest to consumption. • Changes in human diets towards less emission-intensive products • Land use and GHG effects of changing diets require widespread behavioural changes to be effective; i.e., a strong deviation from current trajectories (increasing demand for food, in particular for animal products). • Demand-side options related to wood and forestry
    12. 12. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation potential for the AFOLU sector by 2030
    13. 13. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Economic mitigation potentials in the AFOLU sector by region by 2030.
    14. 14. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Barriers and opportunities • Socio-economic barriers and opportunities • Design and coverage of the financing mechanisms • Scale of financing sources • Poverty • Institutional barriers and opportunities • Transparent and accountable governance • Lack of institutional capacity • Ecological barriers and opportunities • Specific soil conditions, water availability, GHG emission-reduction potential as well as natural variability and resilience • Technological barriers and opportunities • Ability to manage and re-use knowledge assets • Monitoring, reporting, and verification
    15. 15. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Sectoral policies • Economic incentives • Emissions trading • Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation; sustainable management of forests; and conservation and enhancement of forest carbon stocks • Taxes, charges, subsidies • Regulatory and control approaches • Deforestation control and land planning • Environmental regulation • Bioenergy targets
    16. 16. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Frequently Asked Questions • How much does AFOLU contribute to GHG emissions and how is this changing? • Annual GHG emissions (mainly CH4 and N2O) from agricultural production in 2000─2010 were estimated at 10─12% of global emissions (5.0─5.8 GtCO2eq/yr). • Annual GHG flux from land use and land-use change activities accounted for 9─11% of total GHG emissions (4.3─5.5 GtCO2eq/yr). • What is the potential of the mitigation options for reducing GHG emissions? • Global economic mitigation potentials in agriculture in 2030 are estimated to be 0.5─10.6 GtCO2eq/yr. • Reducing food losses and waste can reduce GHG emissions by 0.6─6.0 GtCO2eq/yr. • Changes in diet could result in GHG emission savings of 0.7─7.3 GtCO2eq/yr. • Forestry mitigation options are estimated to contribute 0.2─13.8 GtCO2/yr.
    17. 17. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Summary • AFOLU is unique among the sectors since the mitigation potential is derived from both an enhancement of removals of greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as reduction of emissions through management of land and livestock. • The AFOLU sector is responsible for just under 25% (~9─12 GtCO2eq/yr) of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions. • Opportunities for mitigation include supply-side and demand-side options. • There are barriers to implementation, including accessibility to financing, poverty, institutional, ecological, technological, diffusion and transfer barriers. • AFOLU emissions could change substantially in transformation pathways, with significant mitigation potential from agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy. • Economic mitigation potential of supply-side measures in the AFOLU sector is estimated to be 7.18 to 10.60 GtCO2eq/yr at carbon prices up to 100 USD/tCO2eq, about a third of which can be achieved at <20 USD/tCO2eq. • Polices governing practices need to account for both mitigation and adaptation.
    18. 18. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Thank you! Chuck Rice cwrice@ksu.edu

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