©dreamstime
CLIMATE CHANGE 2014
Mitigation of Climate Change
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment R...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
IPCC reports are the result of extensive work from
scie...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
AFOLU
• Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Trends in emissions | What happened in the last decades...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Which sectors contributed to this increase ?
• About 75...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
AFOLU emissions for the last four decades/General Trend
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Global trends from 1971 to 2010 in area of land use/Reg...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
AFOLU emission-WGII/AR5/ Sector
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
GHG emissions rise with growth in GDP and population;
l...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Net global CO2 flux from AFOLU/Trend in emissions
1750 ...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperatur...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation requires major technological/institutional c...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation pathways and measures | What will be the
con...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation pathways and measures | How AFOLU will be
in...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Substantial reductions in emissions would require large...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Global land use and biomass flows arising from human
ec...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Barriers and challenges in AFOLU
• Financing, poverty,
...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Since AR4, there has been an increased focus on policie...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Section 2
•Prospects for AFRICA
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
What are the challenges for Africa (LDC Box WG III-Chap...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
AFOLU and Low Emission Development Pathway
• AFOLU: a v...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
These Options make
economic sense even witho
the benefi...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Land carbon cycle assessment
C-emission C-sequestration...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective
• Reassess...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Forest Sector
• Importance of
non forested
lands
• MRVs...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mbow et al., 2012, GLP Report series (REDD=
challenges ...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Agriculture
• Emission from the agricultural sector
(in...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Methods used for an overall carbon budgeting
• Independ...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Uncertainties and data gaps
• Uncompleted data set:
– D...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Method Net source (sector) Net sink (sector) observatio...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
• High resolution data sets of crop production
systems
...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Needs for data-Specific
• Importance of Agroforestry: L...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Evolving needs for data
• More flux tower, increased la...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Managing trade-offs
Adaptation
Mitigation
Positive Nega...
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Thanks.
GO to the web page of IPCC
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The IPCC-AR5 WGIII insights: Research and data needs for AFOLU based Mitigation in Africa.

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This presentation was presented by Cheik Mbow on 23 May 2014, at the World Agroforestry Centre, Nairobi Kenya.

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The IPCC-AR5 WGIII insights: Research and data needs for AFOLU based Mitigation in Africa.

  1. 1. ©dreamstime CLIMATE CHANGE 2014 Mitigation of Climate Change Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The IPCC-AR5 WGIII insights: Research and data needs for AFOLU based Mitigation in Africa.
  2. 2. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report IPCC reports are the result of extensive work from scientists around the world. 1 Summary for Policymakers 1 Technical Summary 16 Chapters (AFOLU=Chap 11) 235 Authors 900 Reviewers More than 2000 pages Close to 10,000 references More than 38,000 comments
  3. 3. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report AFOLU • Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) is unique among the sectors in WGIII. • Enhancement of removals of GHGs, as well as reduction of emissions through management of land and livestock. • Agriculture is central to the livelihoods of many social groups • AFOLU sector is responsible for ~ < 25% (~10-12 Gt CO2eq/yr) of anthropogenic GHG emissions • Mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil, biomass burning and nutrient management • 2000-2010 • GHG emissions/yr-1: agricultural @ 5.0-5.8 Gt CO2eq/yr • GHG flux/yr-1: land use change activities @ 4.3-5.5 Gt CO2eq/yr
  4. 4. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Trends in emissions | What happened in the last decades? • The emissions of GHGs accelerated despite reduction efforts… Most emission growth is CO2 from fossil fuel combustion
  5. 5. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Which sectors contributed to this increase ? • About 75% of the 10 GtCO2eq growth in annual anthropogenic GHG emissions between 2000 and 2010 comes from the energy supply and industry sectors • Since 2000, GHG emissions have been growing in all sectors, except AFOLU (24% - 12 GtCO2eq)
  6. 6. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report AFOLU emissions for the last four decades/General Trend
  7. 7. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Global trends from 1971 to 2010 in area of land use/Region Some of this being transferred to Africa
  8. 8. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report AFOLU emission-WGII/AR5/ Sector
  9. 9. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report GHG emissions rise with growth in GDP and population; long-standing trend of decarbonisation of energy reversed.
  10. 10. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Net global CO2 flux from AFOLU/Trend in emissions 1750 to 2011 Cumulative 1980–1989 1990–1999 2000–2009 Gt CO2 Gt CO2/yr Gt CO2/yr Gt CO2/yr IPCC WGI Carbon Budget, Table 6.1a: Net AFOLU CO2 flux b 660 ± 293 5.22 ± 2.93 5.52 ± 2.93 3.83 ± 2.93 Residual terrestrial sinkc -550 ± 330 -5.50 ± 4.03 -9.53 ± 4.40 -9.17 ± 4.40 Fossil fuel combustions and cement productiond 1338 ± 110 20.17 ± 1.47 23.47 ± 1.83 28.23 ± 2.20 Meta-analyses of Net AFOLU CO2 flux: IPCC WGI Table 6.2e 4.77 ± 2.57 4.40 ± 2.20 2.93 ± 2.20 Houghton et al, 2012d 4.18 ± 1.83 4.14 ± 1.83 4.03 ± 1.83
  11. 11. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 21st century. Includes geo-ingineering
  12. 12. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation requires major technological/institutional changes and upscaling of low- and zero carbon energy
  13. 13. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation pathways and measures | What will be the consequences of low ambition? • Delaying mitigation will increase the difficulty for limiting warming to 2°C
  14. 14. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation pathways and measures | How AFOLU will be influenced by mitigation efforts in other sectors? • Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in one sector determine mitigation efforts in others
  15. 15. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Substantial reductions in emissions would require large changes in investment patterns.
  16. 16. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Global land use and biomass flows arising from human economic activity in 2000 Smithetal.GCB,2013
  17. 17. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Barriers and challenges in AFOLU • Financing, poverty, institutional, ecological, technological development, • Feedbacks to adaptation and conservation • Competition between different land‐uses • Promoting synergies: integrated systems or multi-functionality, e.g. ecosystem services
  18. 18. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Since AR4, there has been an increased focus on policies designed to integrate multiple objectives, increase co- benefits and reduce adverse side-effects. • Sector-specific policies dominates the economy-wide policies. • Regulatory approaches and information measures are often environmentally effective. • Since AR4, cap and trade systems for GHGs have been established in a number of countries and regions. • The reduction of subsidies for GHG-related activities in various sectors can achieve emission reductions, depending on the social and economic context.
  19. 19. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Section 2 •Prospects for AFRICA
  20. 20. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report What are the challenges for Africa (LDC Box WG III-Chap 11) • GHG will increase: food production leading to short term land conversion • Technology will not be sufficient for the necessary transitions to low GHG • Access to market and credits, capacities to implement mitigation options • Non-permanence and leakage • Managing Risks, Co-benefits or trade-offs for mitigation (and adaptation)
  21. 21. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report AFOLU and Low Emission Development Pathway • AFOLU: a variety of mitigation options and a large, cost- competitive mitigation potential—flexibility—for mitigation technologies • Projections: land‐related mitigation strategies (agriculture, forestry, bioenergy) were projected to contribute 20 to 60% of total cumulative abatement to 2030, and still 15 to 45% in 2100. • RISKS: potential implications for biodiversity, food security and other services (ensuring co-benefits, avoiding land competition)
  22. 22. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report These Options make economic sense even witho the benefit of carbon finance
  23. 23. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Land carbon cycle assessment C-emission C-sequestration C-pools Forest carbon stock inventory Carbon accounting and surveys Ecosystem models and mapping Dynamic vegetation models Trees Height, DBH, TCC Forest/trees Biomass Biomass change over time Forest disturbance area Field & RS Field,Models&RS Field & RS Models & RS Data Needs
  24. 24. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective • Reassessment of complex landscapes systems for climate mitigation • Need of trade-off with current livelihood activities • Bioenergy-biofuel issue: accounting for livelihoods and food security • Urban-Rural connections in terms of natural resources fluxes • Ecosystem services • Whole farm approaches for low emission development
  25. 25. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Forest Sector • Importance of non forested lands • MRVs • Mitigation as a response for social adaptation needs?
  26. 26. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mbow et al., 2012, GLP Report series (REDD= challenges and prospects for Africa) Non “Forest” Ecosystems
  27. 27. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Agriculture • Emission from the agricultural sector (including fires, shifting cultivation, cropland, pasture, etc. • Non CO2 GHG emission • Sustainable agriculture potential to offset emission from agriculture • Importance of bioenergy in the net budget
  28. 28. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Methods used for an overall carbon budgeting • Independent observed data – Bottom-up ecosystem inventories of land fluxes, biomass, allometry, hand held instruments, sample collections, mobile devices, etc.; • Satellite based approaches – NPP, GPP, NEP, Fire data and emission from vegetation burning (derived from e.g. MODIS), Land use (FAO FRA 2010) and or land cover (GlobeCover, ABG Biomass maps); • Modeling – Atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical models, dynamic vegetation modeling, phenology, soil C, water pools and fluxes; • Secondary data (including activity data) to derive emission data based on emission factors.
  29. 29. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Uncertainties and data gaps • Uncompleted data set: – Data gaps, short period of observations (productivity data, climate data,) limited data e.g. for CH4 and N2O; • Assessment of fluxes from land use change: – Mostly deforestation and forest degradation, inter-annual variability of C fluxes; • Implications of definition of forest and non-forest land cover: – Land cover reported areas: level of aggregation or disaggregation of cover types in classification schemes; • Limited validation datasets: – For model calibration or scaling-up terrestrial fluxes, go beyond the dense forest zones.
  30. 30. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Method Net source (sector) Net sink (sector) observation UNFCC report, National communications 0.95 Pg CO2-eq-yr (C contribution from LUCF) -0.31 Pg Cyr (removal by forest) Africa=small sink Atmospheric inversion 0.3 Pg C yr (land use CO2)+0.26 Pg C yr (fossil fuel) Negative of this value (ecosystem sequestration) Africa= Carbon neutral Up-scaled terrestrial fluxes using in situ observations No data No data Unknown (See: Carbo Africa?) Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM) 0.14 Pg C yr (ORCHIDEE 1980) -0.13 Pg C yr (ORCHIDEE 1990) Africa= from net source to net small sink (CO2 fertilization?) Emission from land use change No data No data Unknown Vegetation fires and domestic biomass burning 1.03 Pg C yr (GFED 1977- 2011) Inconsistent data from improved fire management unknown Lateral fluxes through river Only flux modeling No data Unknown N2O 0.99 Pg CO2-eq yr Approximation based on Unknown Based on Valentini et al, 2014, Biogeoscience Is Africa a net source or a net sink?
  31. 31. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report • High resolution data sets of crop production systems • Standardized and homogenized data on soil as well as forest degradation • Improved understanding of the mitigation potential, interplay, costs as well as environmental and socio- economic consequences of land use based mitigation options • Better understanding of the effect of changes in climate parameters, rising CO2 concentrations and N deposition on productivity and carbon stocks of different types of ecosystems Needs for data-General
  32. 32. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Needs for data-Specific • Importance of Agroforestry: Land use change datasets ignores most agroforestry area • Definition of forest • Peatlands and flooded vegetation • Deforestation rates in non-Forest areas • Modeling efforts to be harmonized: periods and parameters in consideration • Full budgeting of GHGs • Emission embedded to trade of forest products • Fires emissions • Emissions from Peatlands and Mangroves; from fires
  33. 33. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Evolving needs for data • More flux tower, increased land cover quality • More satellite product ( e.g. GEOSAT to drop the error of annual CO2 fluxes significantly) • Emission factors and activity data • Improved fire data from MODIS can improve DGVM outputs • Influence of CO2 fertilization mentioned in GDVM will mostly benefit C4 plants dominated by grass • Implication of stabilizing land use change (decreasing trend since the 1980s) land use trends in Africa • Combination of methods for a full budgeting of GHGs
  34. 34. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Managing trade-offs Adaptation Mitigation Positive Negative Positive Soil carbon sequestration, improved water holding capacities, use of manure instead, mixed agroforestry for commercial products, income diversification with trees, reduced nitrogen fertilizer, fire management Dependence on biomass energy, overuse of ecosystem services, Increased use of mineral fertilizers Poor management of nitrogen and manure, over extraction of non- timber products, timber extraction Negative Integral protection of forest reserves, limited rights to agroforestry trees, Forest Plantation excluding harvest Use of forest fires for pastoral and land management, tree exclusion in farming lands, Bundling mitigation and adaptation benefits Mbow et al, 2014-COSUST
  35. 35. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Thanks. GO to the web page of IPCC
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