Swidden, Rubber and Carbon: Can REDD+ work for people and the environment in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia?
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Swidden, Rubber and Carbon: Can REDD+ work for people and the environment in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia?

on

  • 864 views

Presentation by Jefferson Fox, Jean-Christophe Castella, and Alan D. Ziegler.

Presentation by Jefferson Fox, Jean-Christophe Castella, and Alan D. Ziegler.

Statistics

Views

Total Views
864
Views on SlideShare
864
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
20
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Swidden, Rubber and Carbon: Can REDD+ work for people and the environment in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia? Swidden, Rubber and Carbon: Can REDD+ work for people and the environment in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia? Presentation Transcript

  • Swidden, Rubber and Carbon: Can REDD+ work for people and the environment in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia? Jefferson Fox, Jean-Christophe Castella, and Alan D. Ziegler East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA; Institute of Research for Development, France; National University of Singapore
  •  
  • Introduction For centuries swiddening (also called shifting or slash and burn agriculture) has been practiced in MMSEA by indigenous farmers who managed land in ways that integrated production from both cultivated fields and diverse secondary forests. Today many areas currently or formerly under shifting cultivation are being transformed into other land uses—oil palm, coffee, cocoa, rubber, etc.
  • Objectives
    • This talk addresses issues related to mitigation of carbon emissions in a context of land-use change within swidden systems (i.e. shortening of the fallow and/or lengthening of cropping periods) and conversion from swidden to rubber plantations.
  • Outline
    • Summarize the growing demand for rubber
    • Examine the history of land-use policies in southern China and Laos to show that while policies in both countries are leading to an increasingly homogenous landscape the impact of those policies smallholders diverge immensely.
    • By extension argue that REDD policies that seek only to increase tree cover can have a range of impacts on smallholders ’ livelihoods that vary from beneficial to destructive.
    • Examine the differences in carbon storage in swidden fallows and rubber plantations to determine if any evidence exist that REDD policies that incentivize transitions from swidden to rubber will create carbon gains.
    • Question whether it is possible to design REDD+ policies that are likely to contribute to the reduction of terrestrial emissions and also enhance development and food security objectives in MMSEA.
    Outline
    • World rubber consumption has increased at a rate of 5.77 percent per year since 1900 to about 22.1 million tons in 2008
    • 9.6 m tons for natural rubber (NR)
    • 12.5 for tons synthetic rubber (SR)
    1. Summarize the growing demand for rubber :
  • NR price forecasts to 2011 It ’s the global market . . . ‘stupid’ 8/2011 $4.70 Prachaya. 2009.
  • NR production in major countries, 1990-2011 Prachaya. 2009.
  • Traditional and non-traditional rubber-growing regions
  • Rubber distribution in MMSEA based on 2009 and 2010 250 m MODIS NDVI
    • 2. Examine the history of land-use policies in southern China and Laos to show that while policies in both countries are leading to an increasingly homogenous landscape the impact of those policies on smallholders diverge immensely.
  • Historically NR has predominantly been smallholders ’ crop Country Upper limit for small holdings (ha) Share of smallholdings in rubber planted area (%) Malaysia 40.50 93 Thailand 40 90.5 India 20 88.4 Indonesia 25 85 Sri Lanka 20 64 China 50 Vietnam 32 Laos 23
  • Drivers of Change: Xishuangbanna
  • Summary of land-use policies
    • 1951—Decision on Cultivating Rubber Trees established an order to begin cultivating rubber for national defense and industrial construction.
    • 1956—Jing Hong state rubber farm was established.
    • 1978/79—Household Responsibility System returns agriculture lands to farmers under long term lease arrangements.
    • 1981/83—Liangshanyidi returns freehold and contracted forest lands and swidden fields to farmers.
    • 1984—Policy on stabilization of ‘swidden and forest land.’
    • Late1980s—State subsidies for the production of rubber removed .
  • Summary of land-use policies
    • 1992—Regional opium substitution and poverty alleviation program promotes rubber and other crops in Myanmar and Laos.
    • 1998—State farms reorganized into semi-private corporations .
    • 1998—Natural Forest Protection Program (logging ban) ban prohibits cutting trees in natural forests.
    • 2002—Grain for Green program encourages farmers to return sloping agricultural lands to forest through reforestation.
    • Sloping Lands to Forest program . This program pays farmers to convert their swidden fallows into tea plots.
    • 2006 —A decision appears to have been made to stop the expansion of rubber in Xishangbanna.
  • These policies sought to:
    • Decollectivize communal land and return it to individuals to promote market crops,
    • Restrict swidden and settle shifting cultivators at lower elevations and less steep slopes,
    • Integrate state farms and individuals farmers into the market economy without eliminating political and ideological forces,
    • Promote rubber production.
  • Since 1982 smallholders have planted rubber—mostly monocropping
  • Below 800 m, but even higher, rubber has become ubiquitous
  • But rubber farmers in Xishuangbanna have achieved unprecedented wealth
  • Drivers of Change: Laos (Myanmar, Cambodia, Northwest Vietnam are similar)
    • In the absence of a dedicated extension system, the Government of Laos promotes foreign investments in the rubber sector as a win-win solution
      • to alleviate poverty in remote rural areas,
      • to generate income from export commodities,
      • to increase forest cover.
    • Rubber expansion relies on external inputs of knowledge and investments from state and private entrepreneurs from neighboring countries, particularly China, Vietnam and Thailand.
    Summary of land-use policies
    • As a result of poor governmental regulations, a large range of institutional arrangements for rubber production have emerged in the recent years.
    • Smallholders, contract farming and concessions ’ arrangements have been defined according to who provides the 5 main factors of production : land , labour , capital , market outlet and technical knowledge .
    Condition of emergence of different rubber regimes
  • Contract Farming with Large (Formal) Investors
    • • How are contracts made?
      • – Officially, villagers ’ voluntary commitment must be secured before provincial contracts are made
      • – In implementation, top-down, incomplete village consultation, semi-coercive
    • • What are the typical arrangements?
      • – Five inputs: land, labor, capital, technique, and marketing
      • – “ 2+3” is officially promoted (v 70%/ c 30%) and confirmed by provincial contracts
        • • Villagers contribute land and labor
        • • Company provides capital, technical extension, and market access
        • • After tapping, villagers obtain 70% of the profits, company 30%.
  • In Reality
      • “ 1+4” is predominant in implementation (v 30%/ c 70%)
        • • Villagers provide land
        • • Company solely manages plantation for 3 to 5 years or until tapping, paying villagers for their labor input or relying on hired laborers from elsewhere
        • • After the partition, villagers obtain 30% of the land/trees, and company 70%.
        • • No clear arrangement of market channels.
        • • Only one Lao company and a joint venture succeed in cases of “2+3”. All Chinese companies resort to “1+4”.
        • • Similar to concession.
  • Unlike in China where the government provided farmers with incentives to grow rubber, the Lao government has not provided farmers with any support.
  • 3. By extension argue that REDD policies that seek only to increase tree cover can have a range of impacts on livelihoods that can vary from beneficial to destructive.
    • In China and Thailand where the governments provides committed and effective support to smallholders, there is evidence that rubber farming can improve livelihood of the villagers.
    • There are risks associated with this—food security, disease, pests, weather, etc., but in short-term many people have done well economically.
    • But in countries (Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia) where the governments can not provide committed and effective support to smallholders, rubber farming will result in farmers losing access to their land, becoming laborers on plantations owned by others, coercion, disputes over terms and wages, overlapping and unclear land designation, lack of alternative income sources for remote villagers, corruption.
  • 4. Examine the differences in carbon storage in swidden fallows and rubber plantations to determine if any evidence exist that REDD policies that incentivize transitions from swidden to rubber will create carbon gains.
  • Changes in carbon stocks from different forest land use practices: deforestation, forest degradation, and shifting mosaics.
  •  
  • Common LCLU transitions that involve swidden agriculture and are relevant to REDD+ in SE Asia
    • Permanently abandon a site to allow regeneration of forests;
    • Expand shifting cultivation fields into primary forest;
    • Continue status-quo rotational shifting systems;
    • Intensify shfiting cultivation by lengthening the cropping period and shortening the fallow period;
    • Extend the fallow period in either short or intermediate fallow systems.
    • Replace with monoculture tree plantations such as rubber and oil palm;
    • Replace with other agroforestry systems (e.g., home gardens and intercropping);
    • Replace with pasture or grassland;
    • Replace with permanent cropping of continuous annual field crops and non-tree monocultures (e.g., tea);
  • Carbon Values (MgC/ha) Above Ground Below Ground SOC Total Forests 112-376 10-38 36-92 158-536 Fallow (11-25) 24-60 13 60-300 Fallow (5-10) 28-74 60-300 Fallow (<5) 17-22 11 58 40-120 Oil palm 91 1.3 12 40-120 Rubber 15 60-300 Agroforests 95-165 19 60-300 Pasture 3.2 40-120
  • Carbon and Economic Implications
    • Positive carbon and economic outcomes
      • short-fallow swidden to rubber plantations
    • Negative carbon and economic outcomes
      • rubber to short-fallow swidden
    • Negative economic and positive carbon
      • Moving from any swidden to forest
    • Uncertain/neutral carbon and positive economic
      • Intermediate/long-fallow swidden to rubber or from short-term swidden to oil palm.
    • Uncertain/neutral carbon and negative economic
      • moving to swidden from existing rubber or oil palm
  • Other Environmental Services
    • The carbon-positive transitions that we identify are not equivalent in terms of non-carbon benefits.
    • Swidden agriculture can deliver superior biodiversity benefits compared with rubber plantations and some other agroforestry systems;
    • Capital intensive farming methods have their own set of environmental problems: e.g. accelerated erosion and landslides on permanently converted hillslopes, degradation of stream water quality by pesticides and fertilizers, and stream desiccation caused by increased extraction of stream and groundwater for irrigation
    • There is great uncertainty regarding the potentially high water use by vast landscapes converted to alien monoculture plantations, including rubber in mainland SE Asia.
    • 5. Question whether it is possible to design REDD+ policies that are likely to contribute to the reduction of terrestrial emissions and also enhance development and food security objectives in MMSEA.
  • Economic opportunity costs
    • Net benefit of rubber to farm households in Northeast Thailand ranges from $1735 to $2,226/ha/year.
    • Given that forests in MMSEA may sequester more carbon than rubber (we estimate approximately 20 to 200 Mg C ha-1 including AGC and BGC, carbon payments would need to be on the order of $9.00 to $111/MgC to entice farmers to not convert their forested swidden fallows to rubber.
    • The European Union set fines for noncompliance of carbon emissions standards at $60/MgC excess CO2 emitted, suggesting that a REDD+ policy might be able to pay farmers in less productive rubber growing areas (higher elevations, less rainfall) enough to cover their opportunity costs for participating in the program.
    • The Cambodian government priced the carbon from it ’ s REDD projects at $3.00/MgC (Khun 2008); clearly not enough to solicit farmer participation in REDD projects.
  • Conclusions
    • Given the difficulty of predicting the impact of land-use/land-cover change transitions on smallholders as well as on carbon stocks, it is highly risky, perhaps impossible, to suggest land-use policies that will ensure both reductions in terrestrial emissions and improvement in smallholder livelihoods.
  • A few ideas
    • In some parts of MMSEA, unprotected forests landscapes exist that can be managed under a REDD+ approach that focuses on protecting and improving carbon sequestration in standing forests.
    • In other instances swidden agriculture may still be the most rational land use for farmers from both economic and environmental perspectives; and therefore, should be encouraged in areas where it contributes to the preservation of ecosystem services and cultural identity
  • Ideas
    • In other parts of the region secondary forest fallows will be converted to permanent agriculture, largely dominated by tree crops such as rubber, coffee, and cashews.
    • A REDD+ project that seeks not only to increase carbon sequestration but also to improve the livelihoods of smallholders and to protect other environmental services such as biodiversity and soil and water conservation must provide economic support for small-scale, diversified, agroforestry systems, i.e. multi-storied agricultural systems that preserve the features and ecological functions of a forest, with great species diversity.
  • Thank you!