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How to achieve climate-smart agriculture and the potential triple-win that can be achieved from these practices such as adaptation, mitigation and increasing livelihoods.

How to achieve climate-smart agriculture and the potential triple-win that can be achieved from these practices such as adaptation, mitigation and increasing livelihoods.

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  • So, we have three grand challenges.A key focus of CCAFS is understanding the synergies and trade-offs amongst these objectives, working from plot to global levels
  • Climate change is with us and we need to develop urgent strategies to adapt to a chaning climate.
  • This would be a first step towards fully incorporating agriculture in international climate change policy
  • countries can lead with “early action” that increases capacity, confidence, and knowledge to engage in agriculture that achieves multiple objectivespromote agriculture’s eligibility for climate financing,
  • How do we make the global climate change models relevant to farmers like this? Is it possible?
  • The climate analogues tool has now been developed which allows you to find the projected future climate for a site today through statistical analysis of spatial datasets. This tool essentially creates a living laboratory where you can use spatial analogues of future climate to better understand climate impacts and identify possible adaptation solutions. In CCAFS we are planning to use the tool for a range of activities, including farmer-to-farm exchange visits so that farmers can visualize plausible future climates for the sites in which they live, and allow us to better understand their perspectives on adaptation.
  • Based on report found here: http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Future-Climate-Scenarios-for-Uganda-Tea-2011-07-19_.pdf Crop suitability model used to show how the climatic potential to produce tea reduces in 2020 and 2050, requiring the need for transformational adaptation in many regions.
  • National: Bangladesh, Kenya

Transcript

  • 1. Global Science Conference, Wageningen, Oct 2011 BruceSteps to climate-smart Campbell CCAFS agriculture........
  • 2. Outlinea) The global challengesb) Climate-smart agriculture (CSA)c) Key steps to CSAd) Conclusions 1. A UNFCCC work program on agriculture 2. “Early Action” – building on proven technologies, practices and approaches 3. Major investments through “learning-by- doing” 4. Major realignment of research agendas
  • 3. Challenge 1:Food security
  • 4. Challenge 2: Adaptation
  • 5. Length of growing season is likely to decline.. Length of growing period (%) >20% loss To 2090, taking 14 5-20% loss climate models No change 5-20% gain >20% gain Four degree riseThornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS
  • 6. Challenge 3: Reducing theecological footprint
  • 7. Ocean Safe Role of acidification Nitrogen operatingAgriculture cycle space Climate change Phosphorous cycle Current Biodiversity status loss Global freshwater use Change in land Rockström et al. (2009); use Bennett et al. (in prep.)
  • 8. b) Climate- smartagriculture
  • 9. Food Mitigation Security AdaptationMeridian Institute, 2011
  • 10. CSA is not business as usual?Multiple benefitsAttention to synergies and trade-offsNew partnershipsNew types of finance
  • 11. c) Steps to Climate-SmartAgriculture 11
  • 12. 1. A UNFCCC work program on T agriculture
  • 13. Potential topics (examples!)• Safeguards for most vulnerable: female-headed households, food insecure, smallholder producers• Methods for prioritising adaptation and/or mitigation options• Methods to reward the adoption of CS agricultural practices• Methods to measure, report and monitor (MRV)• Environmental co-benefits beyond GHG emissions (e.g. Biodiversity, pollution of waterways)
  • 14. 2. “Early Action” –building on proven technologies, practices and approaches
  • 15. • Conducting policy analysis • Strengthening/formulating national policies • Developing national and regional learning platforms • Designing incentive systems • Developing MRV systems • On-the-ground implementationMeridian Institute, 2011
  • 16. Assisted (natural) regenerationof trees in the Sahelian drylands • “treeless” to treed - 5 million ha • 4.5 million people • National policy change • Support to groups and networks • Double yields in some places • Increased dry season fodder
  • 17. Conservation agriculture in southern Africa • Minimum tillage • Soil cover • Rotate crops • 180.000 farmers in 2010 • 1  3 tonnes/ha maize
  • 18. Weather advisories in the Sahelian drylands Institutions to support safety nets to help vulnerable populations deal with climateextremes (e.g. cash and in-kind transfers)
  • 19. 3. Major investments through “learning-by-doing” (action research)
  • 20. Alternate wetting and drying 30% water 25-50% GHG Yield not compromised
  • 21. Other candidate examples• Index-based livestock insurance• Carbon finance as catalyst to ....... – facilitate grassland restoration and increased livestock productivity – Agroforestry – ....• Complementary water storage options• Etc
  • 22. 4) Major realignment of research agenda 22
  • 23. i) Decision support tools for understanding trade-offs and selecting development pathways and options
  • 24. Select one of6 climatemodels (orthe average)Selectemissionsscenario Select location 24
  • 25. Farms of the futureWhere can you find the future climate of site x today?Sites in red have high similarity to site x in the rice growing season (June-September). ISPC Science Forum 2011
  • 26. Understanding agricultural transformations 2020 2050 Current
  • 27. ii) Climate risk management
  • 28. From satellite to cell phone?% of households 80 70 60 50 40 Male-headed 30 20 Female- 10 headed 0
  • 29. iii) Multi-benefit and integrated systems population (millions)Intensive Agro-pastoral 480.3 295.1 1099.2 Mixed-extensive 2674 Mixed-intensive Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World Mixed systems produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World and the share will increase to over 60% by 2030
  • 30. iv) Pro-poor mitigation • Incentives and institutions • Technologies Dairy Lamb • Life-cycle CO2 per ton of production analysesKasterine and Venzetti (2010)Keane et al. (2009)Edwards-Jones et al. (2009) Production Transport
  • 31. Conclusions
  • 32. Steps to CSAGlobal Early Action Large-scale ResearchFramework learning by doingSBSTA Work National Policy •Livestock risk •Ag-climateprogram on development insurance science productsagriculture •Alternate for decision Implementation support wetting andFinancial of proven • Transformational drying options adaptationcommitments in •…………Cancun •Conservation •Integrated andAgreement agriculture multi-benefithonored •Assisted systems natural •Climate risk regeneration management • Weather advisories •Institutions for safety nets •……..
  • 33. www.ccafs.cgiar.orgSign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate 33