Rosswall scenarios for policy - 2012-09-05

Second Global Conference on Food Security, Agriculture and Climate Change, Hanoi 2012Scenarios for Policy: Transforming Food Systems, Landscapes and Farming for the 21st Century Thomas Rosswall Chair, CCAFS Independent Science Panel

Contribution of agriculture tocrossing planetary boundaries Based on Bennett et al. (in prep.)

Climate change much faster & more severe than previously anticipated Length of growing period (%) >20% loss 5-20% loss To 2090, ensemble No change 5-20% gain mean of 14 climate >20% gain modelsThornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS

Still much uncertainty about climatefutures e.g. among different models Change in average annual precipitation, 2000-2050, CSIRO GCM, A1B (mm) Change in average annual precipitation, 2000-2050, MIROC GCM, A1B (mm)

Many interlinkedMany interlinked drivers and risksdrivers and risks WEF (2011)

Transformational adaptation inagriculture

Transformation in agriculture The change should be responsive and anticipatory with a high level of adaptive capacity. Farmers strongly attached to their land Rickards & Howden, 2012)

Transformation in institutionsthat support agriculture finance policy incentives

Prepare ahead for long-term,locally-relevant futures ... with current knowledge about climate and plant physiology. It takes 20 yrs for common uptake in farmers’ fields. Plan now for 2030. Session 3 will report on interventions appropriate for the 21st century CSA in drylands.

Prefer multiple entry points over single interventions Session 3 will look at future potentials for C markets to address CSAFarmer map of farming system, BangladeshSource: FAO

Tackle poverty as the keybarrier to transformationSession 3 willgive examples ofsuccessfulinterventions invulnerableareas; buildingassets,strengtheninglivelihoods andtransforminglandscapes.

Take action across thewhole food system Session 3 will address some options.From Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change, 2012

New partnerships are essentialIn the past ... • GovernmentsScientists • FarmersIncreasingly and in the future ... • Farmers • Private sectorScientists • Civil society • Governments... with participatory agenda setting

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Rosswall scenarios for policy - 2012-09-05

by CCAFS | CGIAR program - Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security on Sep 19, 2012

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Rosswall scenarios for policy - 2012-09-05 Presentation Transcript