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‘Scenarios for Policy: Transforming Farming, Landscape and Food Systems for the 21st Century’ was a side event held at the Hunger for Action Conference: 2nd Global Conference on Agriculture, Food …

‘Scenarios for Policy: Transforming Farming, Landscape and Food Systems for the 21st Century’ was a side event held at the Hunger for Action Conference: 2nd Global Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change. This session, coordinated by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) considered future policy options for the major transformative changes needed in farming, landscapes and food systems to make climate-smart agriculture a reality.

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  • 1. Second Global Conference on Food Security, Agriculture and Climate Change, Hanoi 2012Scenarios for Policy: Transforming Food Systems, Landscapes and Farming for the 21st Century Thomas Rosswall Chair, CCAFS Independent Science Panel
  • 2. Contribution of agriculture tocrossing planetary boundaries Based on Bennett et al. (in prep.)
  • 3. Climate change much faster & more severe than previously anticipated Length of growing period (%) >20% loss 5-20% loss To 2090, ensemble No change 5-20% gain mean of 14 climate >20% gain modelsThornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS
  • 4. Still much uncertainty about climatefutures e.g. among different models Change in average annual precipitation, 2000-2050, CSIRO GCM, A1B (mm) Change in average annual precipitation, 2000-2050, MIROC GCM, A1B (mm)
  • 5. Many interlinkedMany interlinked drivers and risksdrivers and risks WEF (2011)
  • 6. Transformational adaptation inagriculture
  • 7. Transformation in agriculture The change should be responsive and anticipatory with a high level of adaptive capacity. Farmers strongly attached to their land Rickards & Howden, 2012)
  • 8. Transformation in institutionsthat support agriculture finance policy incentives
  • 9. Prepare ahead for long-term,locally-relevant futures ... with current knowledge about climate and plant physiology. It takes 20 yrs for common uptake in farmers’ fields. Plan now for 2030. Session 3 will report on interventions appropriate for the 21st century CSA in drylands.
  • 10. Prefer multiple entry points over single interventions Session 3 will look at future potentials for C markets to address CSAFarmer map of farming system, BangladeshSource: FAO
  • 11. Tackle poverty as the keybarrier to transformationSession 3 willgive examples ofsuccessfulinterventions invulnerableareas; buildingassets,strengtheninglivelihoods andtransforminglandscapes.
  • 12. Take action across thewhole food system Session 3 will address some options.From Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change, 2012
  • 13. New partnerships are essentialIn the past ... • GovernmentsScientists • FarmersIncreasingly and in the future ... • Farmers • Private sectorScientists • Civil society • Governments... with participatory agenda setting
  • 14. stay in touch www.ccafs.cgiar.orgsign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate