Rosswall - Food Security - 2012-12-17


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Presentation given at the Belmont Forum on December 17th, 2012.

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Rosswall - Food Security - 2012-12-17

  1. 1. Food security as influenced by land-use and climate changes Thomas RosswallChair, CCAFS Independent Science Panel
  2. 2. UN MDG Summit September 2010 "It is clear that improvements in the lives of the poor have been unacceptably slow, and some hard-won gains are being eroded by the climate, food and economic crises" UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in the foreword to the Millennium Development Goals Report to the Summit.
  3. 3. Global Food Hunger Index Decrease 2012 vs. 1990 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 3
  4. 4. 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 4
  5. 5. Consumption and emissions17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 5
  6. 6. Changing consumption patterns 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 6
  7. 7. Agriculture and biodiversity 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 7 Re
  8. 8. Food and planetary boundaries (Duncan Green, Oxfam, 2011) 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 8
  9. 9. 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 9
  10. 10. Global change and food research 2009-2021 2001-2011 1992-2003 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 10
  11. 11. The big disconnectDevelopment and global changehave been addressed, researched,and funded as unrelated issues Major conclusion of ICSU-IGFA Krusenberg Workshop 200517 December 2012 Belmont Forum 11
  12. 12. The Opportunity Global D4G Business As Usual Development Global for Global Change Change Siloed Integrated Business As Usual Development ResearchAdapted from Sara Farley, The World Bank, LocalICSU-IGFA Krusenberg meeting (2005). 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 12
  13. 13. The big disconnectDevelopment and global changehave been addressed, researched,and funded as unrelated issues Major conclusion of ICSU-IGFA Krusenberg Workshop 2005Future Earth is the response to the need forinternational, integrated, collaborative andsolution-orientated research to respond to thechallenges of global environmental changeand sustainable development. Future Earth Research for Global Sustainability, December 2012 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 13
  14. 14. Multi-Scale Approach High order, strategic Regional diagnosis of opportunities Across geographies constraints and Targeting and stratification opportunities Earth system Immediate investment decisions plus regional science capability building Validation Targeting Food system cross-scale Potential for cross-scale analyses linkages Development science Particular technologies Particular contexts Technologies targeted to Exploring and supporting region, market, farm, livelihood local interventions Solution-focused M. Stafford Smith (2010) 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 14
  15. 15. CCAFS a collaborativeinitiative2009 2013 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 15
  16. 16. CCAFS objectives 1. Identify and develop pro- poor adaptation, risk management and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. 2. Support agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels.17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 16
  17. 17. Where CCAFS works17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 17
  18. 18. The CCAFS framework Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability and Change Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for: Improved 1.Adaptation to progressive climate Environmental Improved change Health Rural 2.Adaptation through managing climate Livelihoods risk Improved 3.Pro-poor climate change mitigation Food Security 4. Integration for decision making Linking Knowledge with Action Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis Enhanced adaptive capacity17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 18
  19. 19. Theme 1.Adaptation toProgressiveClimateChange17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 19
  20. 20. Adaptation to progressive climate change 1 >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform What CCAFS output? Portal to share knowledge on agricultural adaptation and mitigation Why is it useful? knowledge and scientific knowledge; connects broad 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum partnership base
  21. 21. Adaptation to progressiveclimate change 1>> Spotlight on: The Climate AnalogueTool What CCAFS output? Identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality Why is it useful? Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and17 December 2012 livestock trials Belmont Forum 21
  22. 22. Theme 2. Managing Climate17 December 2012 Risk Belmont Forum 22
  23. 23. Managing climate risk 2>> Spotlight on: Current local practices What CCAFS outputs? Surveys of current risk management knowledge and practices Why is it useful? To build on real assets; identify transferable technologies and17 December 2012 Belmont Forum institutions 23
  24. 24. Managing climate risk 2>> Spotlight on: Reconstructing climatedata What CCAFS outputs? Google tool for Ethiopia scaled up across Africa Filling gaps in meteorological records in partnership with local met services and WMO Why is it useful? Crucial for calculating17 December 2012 Belmont Forum index insurance, 24 forecasting food crisis, etc.
  25. 25. Theme 3. Pro-poor17 December 2012 mitigation Belmont Forum 25
  26. 26. Pro-poor mitigation 3>> Spotlight on: Carbon project actionresearch What CCAFS outputs? Cross-project learning on best-bet institutional models across East and West Africa Why is it useful? Direct link between research and action Strong demand from 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum carbon project 26 managers.
  27. 27. Pro-poor mitigation 3>> Spotlight on: State-of-the-art agriculturalmitigation What CCAFS outputs? Earthscan book of current knowledge Lessons from REDD+ for agriculture Why are they useful? Maximizing opportunities, avoiding pitfalls in future systems for ag mitigation 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 27
  28. 28. Theme 4. Integrationfor decision making 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 28
  29. 29. Integration for decisionmaking 4>> Spotlight on: Baseline survey What CCAFS outputs? villages, with 36 sites, 252 5,040 households Why is it useful? Sites for participatory action research Guidance for research foci Basis for formal evaluation of program impacts17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 29
  30. 30. Integration for decision making 4 >> Spotlight on: What CCAFS outputs? A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe Why is it useful? To aid planning & drive agricultural impact models to inform resource allocation 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 30
  31. 31. 2013 CCAFS budgetIncome:CGIAR Consortium $37.3 millionRemaining CRP funds $ 1.7 millionBilateral funds $17.8 millionTotal $56.8 millionExpenditureTheme 1 Adapt. progressive change 40%Theme 2 Adap. managing climate risk 16%Theme 3 Pro-poor mitigation 18%Theme 4 Integr. for decision making 26%Ca. 70% to CGIAR Centres and 30% to partners(i.e., more than $15m)17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 31
  32. 32. Take action across thewhole food systemFrom Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change, 2012 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 32
  33. 33. Transformation in agriculture The change should be responsive and anticipatory with a high level of adaptive capacity. Farmers strongly attached to their land Rickards & Howden, 2012 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 33
  34. 34. Competition for land Globally, per capita arable land area will continue to decrease (0.415 ha in 1961 to 0.214 in 2007), while we need to increase production by at least 60%. Land-sharing vs. land-sparing Biomass for energy Land for non-food production system Conservation and biodiversity protection Urban and other infrastructure expansion on agricultural land Land for recreational and cultural purposes 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 34
  35. 35. Draft Belmont research topics1. Evolution of farming systems and food security - Plausible futures for farming, livelihood and environment? Regional perspectives with case studies in selected countries. Participatory scenario work with stakeholders. - Where should food be produced to feed the global population? - What are the realistic opportunities to close yield gaps? - What changes in patterns of land-use can be anticipated with major shift in crop suitability under new climates? 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 35
  36. 36. Draft Belmont research topics2. Land allocation for alternative purposes and impacts on food production. Should include foreign acquisitions and global market impacts - How much will land-use change be driven by per capita consumption vs. population growth? - Trade-offs between food and energy production at local/regional scale. Effects on socio-economic and environmental conditions? - What are land-use implications for various dietary and energy scenarios? - Which market governance mechanisms are best able to incentivise land-users with net positive outcomes? 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 36
  37. 37. Draft Belmont research topics3. Land tenure and intensification vs. extensification - Intensification vs. extensification in balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services (C sequestration, etc.) and socio-economic conditions - Intensification without expansion onto non- and land governance? - How can we ensure that land-owners benefit from various ecosystem services? - How will attempts to preserve biodiversity affect food production? 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 37
  38. 38. Draft Belmont research topics4. Affordability of food - How will food prices vary under different global- regional scenarios? - How will prices evolve in relation to extreme events? - How will farm and non-farm income vary under different global-regional scenarios? - How will conservation of natural land cover affect livelihoods and income-generating opportunities and hence access to food? 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 38
  39. 39. Belmont CRA principles Address the Belmont Challenge priorities (i.e., societally relevant global environmental change challenges). Assume that they should be aligned with Future Earth. Lever Belmont Forum members existing investments through international added value Bring together new partnerships of natural scientists, social scientists and users (i.e., co- design as an important principle of Future Earth) 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 39
  40. 40. New partnerships are essentialIn the past ... GovernmentsScientists FarmersIncreasingly and in the future ... Farmers Private sectorScientists Civil society Governments... with participatory agenda setting. 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 40
  41. 41. Thank you! Stay in touch sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 41